SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Lower Band Violation; Stock Market Remains in Cyclical Bear Market Pattern for 8 Months

The price action is erratic and unstable these days due to the US and China trading jabs over the trade war. The SPX top-ticks as the month begins. The chart indicators are in negative divergence and the upper band is violated, with overbot conditions, so thwack, the S&P 500 receives the neggie d spankdown. Stocks tried to pop and rally two days later on the Buffett and Munger hype; those two old codgers are telling everyone to buy AAPL, AMZN and GOOGL. Their long call top-ticked the tech stocks.

So down she goes and the bottom band is violated so the middle band at 2906, and dropping, is in play. Price lost the 20 and 50-day MA's but is above the 100, 150 and 200-day MA's. The MACD line is weak and bleak wanting price to come down for another low in that 2800-2812 area. At that time, the MACD line may positively diverge helping to create a bottom in this daily time frame. Interestingly, the SPX weekly and monthly charts do not look well. Perhaps the bounce in the daily time frame at some point in the days ahead may be a last-chance-to-get-out rally rather than an all-clear signal rally.

The 200-day MA at 2776 may need to be tested before anyone feels good about buying stocks again. The 100-day MA at 2755 is coming up to greet the 200. The 150-day MA is at 2742. The slope of the 150-day tells you if the ticker is in a cyclical bull market or cyclical bear pattern. The SPX, the US stock market, has been in a cyclical bear market since last October now eight months running as the 150 continues to slope negatively.

The market signals remain mixed, however. The NYA is above its 40-week MA and the SPX is above its 12-month MA both signaling an ongoing cyclical bull market. Either the 150-day MA will begin sloping higher to confirm the cyclical bull, or, the NYA and SPX will slowly deteriorate and slip into cyclical bear patterns.

The 10-month MA at 2790 is uber important since it is watched by old-timer's and used in many algorithms. The 10-month serves as a flashing warning signal; if it fails there is big trouble coming. The 12-month MA is 2786 a cyclical market indicator as mentioned above. The 20-week MA is 2788 and the 50-week MA is 2775.

2906
2863
Price is at 2834 starting Wednesday
2790
2788
2786
2776
2775
2755
2742
The 2786-2790 support gauntlet is critical. If it fails, strap yourself in to your computer chair since there may be turbulence ahead. The bulls would then try to hold the 2775-2776 support, and if that fails, it's over. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/16/19, at 5:30 AM EST: The bulls rally stocks off the intraday lows during the Wednesday session on more happy trade talk news. The markets are a joke. King Donny is like Julius Caesar at the Colosseum extending his right arm several times during the day and providing a thumb's up or thumb's down for the equity markets. Power is intoxicating. The S&P 500 rallies to a HOD at 2859 on hump day 5 points shy of the 50-day MA at 2864. Price may want to back kiss the 50. S&P futures are flat recovering from a -12 deficit a couple hours ago. VIX 16.38. The MACD line continues to point lower. If price comes up to back test the 50, that bounce or die decision will be critical for the path ahead. Housing Starts drop at 8:30 AM EST (1:30 PM London; 2:30 PM Central Europe; 8:30 PM Beijing; 9:30 PM Tokyo) and are an extremely important and critical data point. Starts are expected at 1.20 million units above last month's 1.14 million.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 5/16/19, at 6:32 AM EST: S&P futures pop to +11 which would send the SPX up to the 2862 area and a back kiss of the 50. There is a critical bounce or die decision that will occur at 2864-ish after the opening bell this morning. VIX drops to 15.82 so futures pop. The bulls cheer yesterday when the VIX drops below the 200-day MA at 16.75. Bulls will win going forward if this remains in place. Bears need the VIX above 16.75 pronto to send stocks lower. Keybot the Quant is currently short the stock market and tracking VIX 15.12 as the bull-bear line in the sand. Bears remain in the game if VIX stays above 15.12. Bulls win bigtime if the VIX drops below 15.12.