Tuesday, May 28, 2019

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart; Federal Reserve and Other Global Central Bankers Stick-Save Markets in 2016 and 2019


The Federal Reserve and other global central bankers have been manipulating markets for the last decade. Former Fed Chairman Bernanke started the party in March 2009 with QE1 (quantitative easing). This Keynesian money-printing monetary policy, along with ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), create the massive stock market upside. Bernanke stepped in to save the day to protect America's wealthy class that own huge equity portfolios.

One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock. The Fed spits on common citizens and instead favors the wealthy privileged class, the elite's, including the Wall Street investment banks, corporate executives at major corporations, politicians, lobbyists and other dirt-bag crony capitalists. The game is obviously rigged.

Fed Chair Yellen continued the party after Bernanke always maintaining her dovish posture; after all she is the Queen of the Doves. The Fed members maintain dovish accomodation because it creates massive wealth for the privileged class. Once these members retire from public office, the investment banks provide a quid pro quo paying them with lucrative speaking fees for showing up at token luncheons. This is the way America's crony capitalism system works.

In April/May 2015, Keystone called the major stock market top due to negative divergence on the charts. Stocks roll over in 2015 and are dropping into free fall to begin 2016. The Federal Reserve will have none of that and began printing money like madmen. The central bankers colluded around the globe coordinating their stimulus offerings. The stock market took off like a rocket in 2016 and 2017 due to the central banker largess.

The Fed's easy money is not used to hire workers or buy capital equipment (as promised by the corrupt system) but instead used to buy back stock. The stock repurchase programs enable CEO's to meet their EPS targets so they can pocket huge bonuses and stock option perks while screwing their employees and America. Interestingly, the stock buybacks over the last many years have inflated EPS numbers, or put another way, are artificially keeping PE's low.

Wall Street strategists say the stock market is cheap or near fairly-valued at these lofty nosebleed levels due to PE's in the 17-19 range. Shockingly, if the buybacks would have never occurred, the PE's would be 30% or more higher say in the 22-25 and higher area; stocks are greatly overvalued. When the stock market collapses in the months and year or two ahead, analysts will say they never saw the impact of buybacks on the broad market. In reality, they know the game. The market sharks keep the hype going so Joe Sixpack gets caught up in the joy and serves as the bag holder (the smart money distributes stocks to the dumb money). In Europe right now, the buybacks are ramping up dramatically as they play the same game (to keep the stock markets elevated).

The Fed and other central bankers create the Tweezer Bottom in early 2016 and save the day. In hockey, when the goalie, at the last possible second, deflects the puck with his big stick and prevents a goal, that is called a stick-save. It is the same in stock trading. The central bankers stick-saved the stock market in 2016, just as equities were collapsing, and then performed the exact same scenario at the start of this year.

Everyone talks about the big Christmas Eve 2018 collapse and stock market bottom, however, 1/3/19 was more important. The stock market rolled over to begin this year. The technicals were plain as day; the stock market was going into free fall. Once again, at the 200-week MA, the Fed stepped in to save the day. The global central bankers colluded and coordinated their offerings of stimulus to get the maximum bang for the buck. The Fed coos dovishly. The PBOC (China's central bank) follows with an immediate triple R cut (reserve requirement ratios were reduced allowing banks to lend more money to stimulate the economy).

A few days later the ECB (European Central Bank) talks dovishly willing to provide more stimuls. A few days later the Fed promises more easy money. A few days later the BOJ (Bank of Japan; Japan's central bank) promises to maintain an accomodative monetary policy indefinitely, and on and on. You get the idea. Voila, stocks take off like a rocket this year and America's wealthy dance with glee proud of the rigged crony capitalism system they have created.

In 2016, the central bankers managed to push the stock market back to the prior record highs in about 4 months time. That was easy. The SPX then chopped sideways for a few months and then the big breakout higher occurred in late 2016 about 9 or 10 months after the stick-save.

In 2019, the central bankers manage to push the stock market back to its prior record highs in about 4 months time repeating the 2016 fractal. Now we are in the sideways chop. You have to ask yourself an important question at this juncture.

Will the 2016 fractal continue repeating itself where US stocks will chop this summer but then begin catapulting wildly higher in the back half of the year and then jump strongly higher in 2020, or, is the one-decade central banker Keynesian game getting old where stocks will instead roll over to the downside?

It is surprising that the stock market has held up this well considering that Fed Chairman Powell flip-flopped from a hawkish stance raising rates in December to a dovish stance directly thereafter. Market participants surprisingly yawned. Confidence should be lost in the bozo central banker system but instead, the wealthy class cheers the dovish accomodation as they count their stock market profits each day.

At the same time, common Americans suffer through years of structural unemployment and high debt. There are jobs available if you want to flip burgers, clean bedpans, pour coffee or walk someone's dog but substantive family-supporting employment is hard to find. The corrupt elite class destroyed America's middle class by shipping the jobs overseas. These chickens are now coming home to roost after the last 3 or 4 decades.

The wealthy put their own greed for money ahead of what was good for all of America. The privileged class wanted the huge profits that come with using slave labor overseas. Expenses drop dramatically since you are no longer paying for an American worker. Vietnam is an attractive manufacturing hub these days since the workers will toil all day long for a hotdog and a Coke. The big reduction in labor costs sends the company EPS numbers higher which sends stock prices strongly higher. The crony capitalism and faux free market system in the United States has created this new Gilded Age a repeat of the 1920's. America is the land of the have's and have not's. No one talks about the American dream anymore; it is now the American joke.

When the recession hits in the weeks and months ahead, that will likely trigger a significant class war in the United States and riots that have not been seen since the 1960's. There will likely be massive looting in the US as the have not's strike back against the have's (sadly, common businessmen and shop owners will be caught in the middle and will see their livelihoods destroyed). This is the future that America's corrupt wealthy class, the greedy b*stards, have created. Few realize, see or understand what is coming down the pike but in a year or two all of America will understand. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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