TNX 10-Year Treasury Yield Daily Chart; Death Cross

Chopin plays the Funeral March for the 10-year yield lamenting that we hardly knew ye. The 10-year Treasury note yield prints a death cross with the 50-day MA stabbing down through the 200-day MA. This creates a disinflationary and deflationary vibe.

The 10 was at 3.25% only 41 days ago now 2.73% a 52 basis-points drop in yield; more than a half-percent. As always, price, or in this case yield since it is a note, tends to pop as and after the death cross is formed due to the many days required for the death cross to occur. Yield is ready for a relief rally when the death cross forms or at least a dead-cat bounce. If the death cross remains after a relief bounce going forward, yield will remain weak and trend lower for weeks and months to come.

Yield violated the lower band so the middle band at 2.76% is on the table and is very near. Yield will decide to bounce or die from there. The stochastics, RSI, MACD and histogram are long and strong wanting more highs in yield in this daily time frame after any 1 or 2-day pullbacks. So yield may jog in place for a few days (up, down,up, down, up, down).

The ADX is way up at 47 showing that the down move in yield is a very STRONG trend. This hints that when yield tries to stabilize and rally there will likely be a lot of sideways choppiness (yield will be trying to come out of a strong trend of weakness). Yield will not receive the all-clear for higher numbers until the Aroon displays a positive cross (green circle somewhere out in the right margin).

The weekly chart has oversold stochastics which helps the bounce you see on the daily chart above, however, the MACD line is weak and bleak on the weekly chart so yield will likely roll over once the daily chart above prints neggie d in the days ahead, say late next week or into the week of 1/21/19, and then drop to retest the 2.50%-2.60% area, say, during the back half of this month or early February. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added at 8:47 AM EST: The 10-year yield is at 2.70%.