Wednesday, March 11, 2015

TNX 10-Year Treasury Yield Weekly Chart

The Tweezer Bottom in early February helped create the bottom in the 10-year yield with the sliver of positive divergence across the indicators. The yield continues higher and all the indicators remain long and strong (green lines) wanting higher highs in yield after any pullbacks. The 200-day MA is 2.23% a first resistance level. Then the neon blue line at 2.32%-ish. There is a congestion zone at 2.32%-2.38% that may stall the yield's climb. The 50-day MA is 2.35% and falling, and the purple trend line is 2.30%-2.37%, so those create a confluence at 2.32%-ish giving this level more street cred. The 2.46% level matches the middle standard deviation band on the monthly chart which provides another upside resistance level.

Yield will move higher until the indicators negatively diverge. Yield may prefer to move up through the rising red wedge as it decides where to top out at. The monthly chart has more of a sideways vibe to it although the 2.46% and dropping, as mentioned above, is in play. The 2.32%-2.38% is a very good candidate for where yields will eventually stall say in April perhaps into May. A significant move higher in yields is not expected at this time. The expectation would be for yields to move sideways through 1.80%-2.40% for the remainder of the year. The chart will have to be revisited going forward since markets are in a tumultuous time currently due to the ECB QE intervention. The projection is that yields will top out in April at 2.30%-2.40% and then begin moving sideways to sideways lower in the back half of the year but this analysis will have to be revisited every couple weeks going forward to see how it tracks. It all depends on when the indicators begin rolling over with neggie d.

The red lines show the top in yields at 3% when 2014 began. That was an easy call compared to the current set up. Back then, the consensus was 95% of traders saying yields were unstoppable to the upside but the red lines showed that everyone was wrong, and they were. That was one of Keystone's best calls for the top in yields to begin 2014, and it was easy with the neggie d in play, and yield stumbled the whole way down to 1.65%. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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