Saturday, March 7, 2015

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart 40-Week MA Cross

The drama with the NYA 40-week MA cross begins anew. This is one of Keystone's important cyclical market signals that point the way ahead for weeks and months, perhaps years like the chart shows with the bulls enjoying the top side of the 40-week for over two years (cyclical bull market). The 40-week MA is 10845. Price is 10842 so the bears are in charge albeit by only three bucks.

This chart has been highlighted since late September. The market bears were pushing lower in October and on the verge of creating a serious downside market event. That is why the Federal Reserve panicked in October and goosed the markets (this was explained in detail in prior articles). The global central bankers are acting in collusion and an October crash was saved by the Fed jawboning with days later the BOE, the BOJ, then ECB, then PBOC, etc..., until they regained the 40-week MA and then they congratulated each other over how they can manipulate markets. The central bankers are the market and have been since March 2009.

The central bankers repeat their goosing and market support to save the day in December, and then again with the February rally. It is truly sickening. It clearly shows how capitalism does not exist. Free markets are a joke; they do not exist. If you believe in such folly you sir, are a fool. In trading, you could care less which way markets move; all that matters is that you are on the right side of the trade; this is what capitalism and free markets are meant to be but that only exists in history books. Regardless, trading for the last few years is an ongoing assessment of what the third man on the field is doing (Fed and central bankers) in addition to the ongoing fight between bulls and bears.

If the NYA stays under the 40-week MA, markets are toast this year so keep a close eye on the NYA on Monday morning. It will tell you the market direction answer. The NYA has moved through that sideways red channel range of about 800 points for over one year's time. As price made new highs two weeks ago, the indicators are negatively diverged (red lines) showing that the upside is running out of gas, and the spank down occurs. Watch to see if the MACD cross turns negative; if so, the bears will push the NYA far lower. If the MACD cross remains positive, then the bulls will recover again likely with the help of Fed jawboning probably on tap for Monday. Also watch to see if the RSI slips under 50% into bear territory to signal further weakness ahead. If the RSI stays above 50 bulls are fine.

If the markets tumble next week watch the volume. Price is moving into the same areas as the large volume candlesticks from December and early February. Thus, at the same price levels the volume needs to be assessed to see if it can overcome the prior buying volume to show the bears mean business. If stocks fall next week on lackluster volume than the bulls will likely recover again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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