Thursday, February 19, 2015

VIX Volatility Index Daily Chart

The VIX 200-day MA is an important bull-bear market signal; above and markets sell off, below and markets rally. It is very surprising to see the VIX stay above the 200-day MA and the SPX print new all-time highs; very surprising. The small circle shows the VIX coming down for a test of the 200-day three days ago and bounced. With new all-time highs you expect the VIX to be under the 200-day MA. So keep an eye on it.

Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long the market and is currently tracking VIX 16.61 as an important bull-bear line in the sand. Bears were joyous after yesterday's opening bell when VIX shot above 16.61 but minutes later volatility crumbled lower, and so did the bear's hopes. So keep a close eye on VIX 16.61.

If VIX stays above 14.65, stocks should soften and drift lower. If VIX drops under 14.65, boom, stocks will launch higher with the SPX starting to think about 2120. If VIX moves above 16.61, splat, the top is in for equities and a down move will be underway for the stock market. Thus, if markets sell off but the VIX does not go above 16.61, then the bears got nothing and stocks would recover. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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