Friday, February 27, 2015

SPX 30-Minute 8/34 MA Cross

The 8 MA crossed under the 34 MA creating a bearish cross signaling selling for the hours ahead but the bears do not have a lot of downside juice. The bulls are keeping copper elevated and volatility low prohibiting the selling from gaining any traction. Bears are okay if the SPX stays under the 8 MA at 2110.44 moving sideways. If price moves above the 8 MA it will curl the moving average higher and chart the path to a positive 8/34 cross that would exalt the bulls to victory. Bears need to keep price under 2110 and start pushing lower.

The SPX receives the neggie d spankdown as shown by the red lines and red arrow. Price is moving sideways now. The SPX will have to make a decision within a few candlesticks which is anytime over the next couple or three hours, thus, since only 90 minutes of trading remains, equities may choose to slide out sideways into the weekend and make the decision on Monday morning. Whichever way price breaks from the blue trend lines identifies the winner.

Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long and is tracking JJC 31.98 as a key bull-bear line in the sand most influential to broad market direction currently. JJC is 32.16 which prevents the bears from making any downside progress. Market bears need JJC under 31.98 or they got nothing. Watch the SPX in relation to the 8 MA to see how the week finishes.

The algorithm also identifies UTIL 596 as a key metric for next week. UTIL is now printing 594 so bears receive a big feather for their caps come Monday morning if UTIL remains under 596. If UTIL finishes today above 596, the bulls are going to slap the bears silly on Monday. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:36 PM: SPX 2109.31. The 8 MA on the 30-minute is 2110.10.  JJC 32.14. UTIL 593.80.

Note Added 2:51 PM: SPX 2106.27. The 8 MA on the 30-minute is 2109.76.  JJC 32.15UTIL 592.83. VIX is 13.77 remaining subdued helping bulls. Copper is not dropping so any weakness in stocks right now will likely recover. Utes are a touch weaker and staying under 596 so that will be ammunition the bears are gathering to fight back hard come Monday morning.

Note Added 3:02 PM: SPX 2104.60. JJC 32.15. Copper is not dropping so despite the drop in stocks, the bears likely do not have downside juice. UTIL 592.62.

Note Added 4:15 PM: SPX 2104.50. JJC 32.19. UTIL 594.19. Copper would not yield. UTIL closes under 596 and will begin under that level for Monday which will create market negativity. Bears will need to push copper futures lower overnight Sunday as well to make sure they have enough downside juice to smack markets lower. Conversely, if copper futures trade higher going into Monday's opening, and UTIL bounces above 596 after the opening bell, the bulls will continue the upside rally. Equities may have weakened into the closing bell due to the Congress continuing to work towards averting a shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security. Bears should not get too excited since copper remains elevated. Yesterday and today, that strength in copper is a big time aid for the bulls; it prevented the downside selling and is keeping stocks elevated. For the 30-minute chart above, the SPX collapses below the blue trend line down to 2104 at the closing bell. The 8 MA is 2109 so the negative 8 /34 MA cross remains in play signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead.

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