Thursday, February 19, 2015

SPX 2-Hour Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

The 2-hour chart was setting up with neggie d (red lines) and yesterday the bulls fended off the initial spankdown move by the bears. The small green circle shows a slightly higher high in the MACD line so price wanted to come back up one more time, and it did, with a late-day recovery rally. Price is a hair away from the matching or higher high needed for neggie d but it is close enough for government. With this matching high in price note the universal negative divergence showing for all the indicators (red lines). In addition a negative MACD cross occurs. Thus, the expectation is that the overbot conditions, rising wedge and neggie d should create a spank down. Even if price levitates more, watch the green lines since if the indicators stay under the prior highs the negative divergence remains and price will simply roll over to the downside from that high.

Projection is down targeting the 2089-ish and 2082-ish support levels. Of course if a positive news event occurs it will take away from the pending bear joy. The daily chart hints at a bit more up so any pull back say the remainder of this week will likely give way to stocks floating back up into Fed Chair Yellen's Congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday which is usually always bullish. The new moon peaked last evening and stocks are typically weak moving through the new moon. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday morning 2/22/15: The bears were not allowed to shine as markets remained buoyant on Greece happy talk and then the Greece bailout agreement occurs after lunch time Friday catapulting stocks to new all-time highs. Price jumps higher resulting in continued negative divergence in the chart above although in the very near term (hours) the upside has momentum. The SPX daily chart wanted higher highs, and still does. Stocks are typically bullish during the Fed's Congressional testimony which is Tuesday and Wednesday.

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