Saturday, December 27, 2014

SPX Daily Chart Fibonacci Retracements if the Near-Term Top is In

The low COC put/call ratio at 0.73 confirms rampant complacency in markets with traders completely fearless buying any stock since everything rises in a global central banker non-stop stock market pump. Investors are buying utility and other blue-chip dividend stocks with total disregard for price. Fund inflows are hitting levels not seen since the dotcom year 2000 bubble top and during the 2008 top. The wealthy that own stocks are celebrating a joyous year and they do feel and are richer which temporarily spurs the economy, however, the other half of America, that do not own stocks, are eating franks and beans after trying to enjoy a Tiny Tim style Christmas without the happy ending.

If markets receive the neggie d spank down as the red lines project, the first Fib retracement, the 38% Fib, is at 2043. The 2040 and 2032 levels are very strong support. The 20-day MA is 2052 so a confluence of support forms at 2040-2052. If price drops under the 2040 level, the 2032 will likely occur quickly and that is also near the 50% Fib at 2029.

The PMO lines produce a positive cross which emboldens the bulls despite the negative chart set-up. Note the low volume on Wednesday (Chiristmas Eve) and on Friday (the day after Christmas) the lowest volume of the year.

The strongest S/R in this 100-point range is 2093, 2089, 2075-2076, 2067, 2061, 2040, 2032 and 2002-2003. The 20-day MA is 2051.58 and rising and needs back tested. The SPX began December at 2067 so there may be price excitement on tap at this level as the year closes out. The projection is a near-term top now or in the direct days ahead and a move down to 2032-2067. As highlighted above, focusing on the 20-day and the 38% Fib retracement, a landing zone of 2040-2052 is on the table. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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