Tuesday, December 9, 2014

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross

The bulls are staging a strong intraday comeback by moving volatility lower. The VIX withdraws to 15.20 from the highs above 16 so the intraday volatility drop creates bull fuel but overall the bears remain in the larger game with VIX above 14.43 (identified by Keybot). The 8 MA is under the 34 MA on the 30-minute continuing to signal bearish markets for the hours ahead but the bulls have now curled the 8 MA upwards for a potential positive cross in the hours ahead.

Key S/R is 2073, 2065-2068, 2056-2057, 2052, 2046, 2040, 2038, 2032 and 2024. December begins at 2068. The 2065-2068 is strong resistance. Price is currently fighting at the 2056-2057 resistance and must bounce or die. The 20-day MA is 2057.41 (also the middle band on the daily charts' standard deviation bands). So a move up through 2056-2058 will send price to the 2065-2068 resistance. If bears hold 2056-2058 resistance, then price will retreat back down to 2052 and if that fails then 2046.

The two neon circles show potential gap fills. The indicators are long and strong so it may take two to five candlesticks to roll price back over to the downside which is from one to three hours. This could take the action into tomorrow morning. Bulls need the positive 8/34 MA cross for the chart above, to punch up through the 20-day at 2057.41 and to push the VIX under 14.43 to prove they got game and plan on resuming the rally higher. If bears hold these three parameters then markets will weaken and sell off again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:05 PM:  SPX 2054.84. SPX 20-day MA 2057.45. VIX 15.34

Note Added 2:38 PM: SPX 2052. Support 2052. Bounce or die. VIX 15.42.

Note Added 4:45 PM: That was a wild day. The SPX held the 2052 S and bounced running up to test the 20-day MA at 2057.69 and punched up through to close at 2059.82. Regaining the 20-day is a big feather in the bull's cap. The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart favoring the bears for the hours ahead but the 8 MA is moving vertically higher and the 34 MA is sloping down for a potential positive cross tomorrow morning so the jury remains out. The directional move at the opening bell will likely tell the tale for the path ahead. The VIX remains above 14.43 which is big feather in the bear's cap. Keybot the Quant remains short but if the VIX drops under 14.43 and the SPX moves above 2061 and stays above moving higher, Keybot will likely whipsaw back to the long side. Since the SPX closed at 2060 that is only one point the bulls need to resume the upside rally tomorrow so watch the overnight S&P futures; any positivity in the S&P futures will likely reestablish the upside stock market rally and Keybot will be back on the long side. If VIX stays above 14.43 the bulls got nothing and stocks will roll over to the downside. If the NYA 10749 (40-week MA) fails, stocks will collapse. So Wednesday will be a big day and interestingly it is a Bradley turn date so the market excitement will surely continue. The Bradley turn date is 12/7-12/10 which creates a window for markets to change direction or accelerate one way or the other right now between 12/3/14 and 12/15/14. Currently, the SPX topped on Monday, 12/8/14; did this identify a market top? The rest of the week will have to play out to determine the answer. Note that price exactly filled the gap shown by the neon bubble in the chart above at 2057-2060. Closing above the strong 2056-2058 resistance, now support, is a big win for bulls but this will have to hold as support tomorrow. For the three parameters mentioned above, the bulls have the 20-day MA in their camp, the bears have the VIX in their camp, and both are fighting over the 8/34 MA cross to control the path ahead which will likely be determined tomorrow morning; either bears maintain the negative 8/34 cross or the bulls will create the positive 8/34 cross and that decision either way will provide the market direction answer ahead. VIX 14.43 is the most important parameter to watch when the opening bell rings on Wednesday.

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