Summary: The predictions in the table are not bad at all with the exception of the SPX targets. Overall, Keystone's predictions for 2014 turn out to be about 66% correct; better than most other folks can achieve. Perhaps the 2015 Predictions, to be released in a couple days, will fare better.
Keystone's 2014 Predictions
It’s time for another year of predictions that will provide for laughs in December 2014. Analyst and trader consensus is expecting the SPX to move above 2000 in 2014. Perhaps they will prove correct, perhaps not. The power of the central bankers, especially the Fed and BOJ, can never be underestimated. Keystone’s prognostications this year is for the broad indexes to place a multi-year top a la 2000 and 2007, either in January, or in April-May. (SPX moves above 2K but no multi-year top unless it is the current top)
Keybot the Quant, Keystone’s trading algorithm, navigates successfully through each year so simply reference Keybot’s status in the left margin if you ever want to know the current market direction. Keystone continues to hold short positions and inverse ETF’s betting against the markets but those trades are under water to begin the new year. Market bears should receive a turn at bat in 2014.
The consensus expects Treasury yields to move higher and inflation to rear its head in 2014. Keystone continues to consider the disinflationary and deflationary scenario as far more likely. All of 2013 was disinflationary and deflationary despite the bullish stock market. Keystone’s prognostications for 2014 are provided in greater detail below. The predictions circle the globe from Japan to China to Europe, and then back to the States. Many of the predictions go against the main stream consensus. The predictions make for great bedtime reading—guaranteed to put you to sleep. (Treasury yields do indeed move lower proving the consensus wrong again in 2014)