Sunday, August 3, 2014

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 8/4/14

SPX support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 8/4/14. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R. The SPX all-time intraday and closing highs occurred on 7/24/14 at 1991.39 and 1987.98, respectively; seven trading days ago (the week before last).

Keystone's 80/20 rule says 8's lead to 2's so the breach of 1980+ opened the door to 2020+ but price topped out at 1991 a couple weeks ago and rolled over. The high last week was 1985 so for the next five days, 1985-1986 is formidable overhead resistance. Price has fallen through the 20 and 50-day MA's. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute is 1962 and failed last week igniting substantial market downside. A back kiss of the 200 EMA will occur at some point forward probably on the recovery rally move.

The month of Augst begins at 1931 so jot that number down and watch it as the month draws to an end. Interestingly, the month of August has five Sunday's and five Saturday's which does not happen often. For Monday, with the SPX starting at the 1924-1925 support, the 1931 resistance is in play and 1937 R. If 1937 gives way, price will run to 1942 then decide if a further run higher is warranted to test the important 1949-1954 (50-day MA at 1953.61) resistance zone.

The bears need any amount of weakness, to push under the 1924-1925 support and price will seek a test of Friday's low at 1916 again. The 20-week MA at 1911.94 and 100-day MA at 1910.97, along with horizontal support, create a support gauntlet at 1910-1912. If this fails, price will seek 1902. The 150-day MA teams up with horizontal support to create strong support at 1884. The support cluster at 1848-1858 is key since if that fails, the SPX will go negative on the year. The 12-month MA at 1852.52 is extremely important since if that level fails, equities can remain weak for months and probably a year or two locking in a substantial cyclical bear pattern.

If the 20-week MA at 1911.94 fails, a move to the 50-week MA at 1829.90 is on the table and the 50-week has not been touched in over 2 years highly unusual market behavior (a reversion to the mean is desperately needed). Key S/R is 1991, 1988, 1985-1986, 1976, 1973, 1968, 1963, 1960-1961, 1949-1950, 1924, 1912, 1902, 1897, 1891, 1884, 1878, 1872-1874, 1848, 1841, 1831, 1828, 1808, 1803 and 1800.

1991 (7/24/14 All-Time Intraday High: 1991.39) (7/24/14 Intraday High for 2014: 1991.39)
1989
1988 (7/24/14 All-Time Closing High: 1987.98) (7/24/14 Closing High for 2014: 1987.98)
1987
1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)
1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)
1984.85 Previous Week’s High
1984
1982
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1974
1973
1970.00 (20-day MA)
1970
1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)
1965
1964
1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)
1962
1961.93 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)
1961
1960
1959
1957
1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)
1953.61 (50-day MA)
1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)
1949
1942
1940
1937.35 Friday HOD
1937
1931
1930.67 August Begins Here
1925.15 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here
1925
1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)
1923
1920
1919
1916.37 Friday LOD
1916.37 Previous Week’s Low
1916
1912
1911.94 (20-week MA)
1910.97 (100-day MA)
1910
1907
1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)
1901
1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)
1894
1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)
1889
1886
1885
1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)
1883.43 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)
1882
1880
1879.21 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)
1879
1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)
1877
1874
1872
1871
1868
1867
1865
1862
1859
1858.14 (200-day MA; not tested for 19 months extremely odd behavior)
1855
1853
1852.52 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)
1852
1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)
1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)
1848.36 Trading for 2014 Begins Here
1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)
1846
1845
1843
1842
1841
1840
1839
1838
1837
1835
1832
1831
1829.90 (50-week MA)
1828
1827
1824
1820
1816
1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)
1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52)
1810
1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)
1808
1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)
1806
1803
1801
1800
1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)
1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)
1796
1793
1791
1788
1785
1783
1782
1781

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