Monday, August 25, 2014

XEU Euro Daily Chart Overbot Falling Wedge Positive Divergence

The euro has the highest amount of short interest since summer of 2012 two years ago. That is mucho short-covering fuel. The euro slips under 1.32 today and is playing around at this level currently. The maroon lines above show universal positive divergence across all indicators, and along with overbot conditions and the falling wedge pattern, are all set to rocket launch the euro higher. Once price moves higher the short-covering fuel will likely create an even stronger launch.

You must be nimble to play the long bounce in the short term, however, since the weekly chart is only positively diverged with the stochastics and histogram but the RSI and MACD line want to see lower lows after the bounce. Thus, the expectation is for a rocket launch pop in the euro that will send the euro shorts screaming to cover. Once this sharp up move occurs and stabilizes, the euro will likely leak lower again placing another lower low under 1.32. The 1.315-ish area, call it 1.310-1.315, may be the bottom that occurs due to the weekly chart, say, in a month or two. For the VST, days ahead and week or two, the euro is now on the launch pad and fueled.

The ADX remains above 20 during the euro down move indicating that the trend lower is very strong. Once the relief rally pops the euro higher watch the ADX and use the 20-25 level to identify if the strong down trend is lost, or not, going forward. Since the weekly chart wants to see lower lows in price, the expectation is that the ADX will stay above 25. If the ADX drops under 20-25, then the strong downtrend is lost and the euro will likely move sideways with an upward bias going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:40 PM:  The XEU ends at 1.3192 continuing to fall down the rabbit hole of the falling wedge. The euro is currently trading at 1.3186. Note that the RSI and MACD line slip lower than the lows from three weeks ago which takes away the positive divergence shown above for these two indicators. This will likely delay the launch move for the short term by a day or three.

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