May begins at 1884 so this level will be key for the next four weeks. Price is well elevated above all the moving averages in all time frames so mean reversion is required moving forward. The equity markets remain elevated from the continuing Fed and BOJ easy money booze party. Traders remain complacent, as evidenced by the low volatility and low put/call ratio's, typically indicating a market topping out. Traders believe there is no reason for worry or concern since the Fed will always create a stock market moving higher.
For the SPX on Monday starting at 1881, the bulls need to push up through the critical 1891 resistance again and price will catapult to 1897-1900 in very quick order. The bears need to push under 1878-1879 to accelerate the downside which will tag 1874 immediately then seek out the strong 1868 support in short order. A move through 1880-1890 is sideways action to begin the new week of trading. The 20-day MA is 1862.46 and 50-day MA is 1862.72 forming a confluence that may act as a magnet level for price to seek and test. Also factoring in the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1865.80 and strong support at 1868, an epic battle is likely to take place at the 1862-1868 support gauntlet this week that will decide the fate of bulls and bears. Bulls have no worry or concern as long as price stays above 1865.80. Bears take full control of markets under 1865.80.