Wednesday, May 7, 2014

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross Fibonacci Retracements

The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead. The SPX is moving above the 8 MA, however, so this will curl the 8 MA upwards and set up a potential positive cross for later today. The histogram and stochastics create the positive divergence bounce that occurs after the opening bell. The money flow is not happy with the bounce, however, and would like to see another price low. The 2-hour chart hints at another low, ditto one-hour chart, so the thinking would be that the price jump early today fades as the day goes on so all the hourly and minute charts can set up a better bottom.

With Fed Chair Yellen now speaking, the bulls may apply some upside juice. The Fibonacci retracements in blue for the move higher from 1852 to 1890 show price behaving exactly in line with the 32%, 50% and 62% Fibs. Bears will be happy if the 1867.50 fails. Bulls will be happy if price moves up through the 50% Fib at 1871.50, then up through the 32% Fib at 1875-1876.

Projection is continued sideways choppiness. Equities should give up the early gains and perhaps place a better near-term bottom this afternoon or tomorrow. The ECB rate decision and press conference is in the morning (7:45 AM EST decision and 8:30 AM EST press conference) and is the main event. Draghi has power over the euro and the euro, dollar, yen correlation rules the markets. Market bears are happy as long as the negative 8/34 cross remains. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:15 PM:  The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA but the 8 MA is running higher set up to cross the 34 MA withing the first one-half hour or so after the opening bell on Thursday. Therefore, the bears have one chance to stop the bullish thrust and that is at the opening bell. Bears must eat their Wheaties and push the SPX lower from the get-go to maintain the negative 8/34 cross. Draghi will receive the tablets down from on high in the morning and his words will move the euro, dollar, yen, and determine whether the bulls win, or the bears. Draghi spends a sleepless night tonight knowing that global markets will react to his words in the morning.

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