Friday, April 4, 2014

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 4/4/14; Monthly Jobs Report

The consensus for this morning’s Monthly Jobs Report is 206K jobs, call it 200K even, up from last month’s 175K jobs. The consensus range is from 175K to 275K. Whisper numbers are 250K. Traders in general expect a bullish jobs number of well over 200K. The unemployment rate is expected to drop one tick to 6.6% from 6.7% last month. Watch for wage growth, or lack thereof, since inflation cannot exist without wages rising. S&P futures are +3 in the early morning hours on the East Coast. Copper is trading higher. Traders are expecting the bulls to run.

The dollar/yen is 103.89. The weaker yen over the last few days, with dollar/yen leaping from 102 to over 104, provides the upside stock market fuel. Banzai! Dollar/yen is idling sideways like everything else this morning waiting for the Jobs Report only about one-hour away released at 8:30 AM EST.

Note Added 8:37 AM: The Jobs Report is 192K jobs missing all the prognostications. The unemployment rate remains at 6.7%. Hourly earnings are flat. The last two months are revised higher gaining a total of 37K jobs. This places last month at +197K jobs and this month is lower at 192K jobs. These numbers barely keep pace with the jobs needed to support new entries into the workforce. The jobs number is a disappointment but in the current distorted markets, traders are happy since the Fed will continue providing easy money crack cocaine. S&P futures leap higher to +8. Dollar/yen jumps above 104 to 104.05. Banzai! It's a shame that weak and lackluster numbers bring reason for cheer but this is the world the Fed and other central bankers have created. A very sick world where mediocrity is cheered. Gold remains flat at 1296 after the number. The 10-year yield is down slightly to 2.78%.

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