Friday, February 21, 2014

VIX Volatility Daily Chart 200-Day MA Market Sell Signal

The VIX is above the 200-day MA at 14.61, albeit by pennies, signaling bearish markets ahead. There are many mixed signals in the markets nowadays, however. The 50-day is 14.67 so use this 14.61-14.67 zone as a S/R gauntlet. Market bears win big above 14.67. Bulls win big below 14.61. Remember, volatility moves inversely to equities.

Keystone's algo, Keybot the Quant, is currently tracking VIX 14.00 as the bull-bear line in the sand so the bears are favored moving forward. So even if the moving averages fail, and the bulls receive the nod forward today, the bears remain in the game as long as the VIX stays above 14. If VIX falls under 14, the bears will be running back to the den to hybernate because equities will be running far higher. For now, the bears have the ball and will have a happy weekend if they can maintain the VIX above 14.67 and preferably above 15 moving higher. Watch the 200-day MA as a key market signal for the days ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 4:18 AM on 2/22/14:  VIX ends the week at 14.68. The 200-day MA is 14.62 so bears smile. The 50-day MA is 14.70. So price is sneaky deciding to sit inside the 14.62-14.70 S/R gauntlet all weekend long and decide the path forward on Monday. Same analysis is in place. Bears have the upper hand above the 200-day MA but need to send volatility far higher to create market mayhem. Bulls need to drop price under the 200-day MA, which they did for much of Friday only to lose control late-day, and then push under 14 to guarantee a higher stock market.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.