SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 2/10/14

SPX support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 2/10/14. Lots of market drama is occurring. The price action has been obeying S/R and moving averages. The broad indexes are moving up and down in unison the same percentages on some days so this behavior hints that the computers are in full control. Equities are meandering and set up for a big decision to begin the new week of trading. The recovery late last week is a near 50-handle pop from 1750 to almost 1800; the bulls slapping the bears in the face just like all of last year. Interestingly, however, the buying volume the last two days is weaker than recent days and overall, the broad indexes are obviously in distribution with larger volume sell days following any up day for over one month.

Price closes at 1797, also the high for the week, and note how this is at the mid-November top at 1798-1799. In addition, the SPX remains below the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1798.90 which continues to signal bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. Market bulls can pour the champagne if the SPX moves above 1799 and higher. The 1796 was strong resistance, now support, so the bears have to hold 1799 R, otherwise, price will run up through 1803, 1808 and then the 1820's. So Monday will be intense with a major decision occurring at 1799.

If 1799 is taken out to the upside, note that both the 20-day MA at 1804.25, and 50-day MA at 1809.35, both falling, are in need of back tests. Interestingly, the strong 1803 resistance corresponds to the 1804 and the strong 1808 to the 1809. These two levels serve as the last gauntlets of resistance for the bears to hold back the upside; the 1803-1804 and 1808-1809 levels. Looking at the downside, the move back above the 20-week MA at 1782.66 created strong buy side interest. February began at 1783 as well. Price respected the 100-day MA at  1773.10 on the way down and back up. The 1772 S/R level is the strongest level on the list and very important. Bulls rule above 1772. Bears rule below 1772.

The SPX placed the bottom three days ago exactly at the 150-day MA, now at 1740.02, and rising. The bottom was at 1737 and the 150-day MA must be treated with strong respect here on out. On the way back down, price will likely accelerate to the downside once the 150-day MA support fails. Also of interest is how close price came to the 10-month MA at 1722.76. This is a more obscure moving average to follow but it is a fave of the old-timers that have traded for decades. The old-timers always have a few cards up their sleeves that the young whipper snappers do not. Price came within about 15 handles of the 10-month MA. Bad things will start to happen to markets once the 10-month fails.

The Dow came down to test its 200-day MA but the SPX did not. In general, when price starts lower again, the key support levels are 1796, 1791, 1788, 1783, 1772, 1763, 1745, 1733, 1722, 1706, 1697-1698 and 1691-1693. The resistance levels above are 1799, 1803-1804, 1808-1809, 1818, 1828, 1832, 1838-1843, 1845-1846, 1848, 1849, 1851 and new all-time highs.

For the SPX for Monday, starting at 1797, the bulls need 1798, only one point, and the 1799 described above will give way like a hot knife through butter. Thus, watch the Sunday overnight futures since any smidge of green means the bulls will rule the roost again on Monday. Bears must keep the overnight futures negative. If 1798-1799 gives way, the bulls will charge to 1803-1804 resistance immediately and the momo will likely pump price straight to the first real resistance test at 1808-1809. The bears need to retrace the Friday up move, a formidable task. Instead, the bears will try to keep utilities and financial sectors weak, while at the same time holding each resistance level as best they can. A move through 1777-1798 is sideways action.

1851 (1/15/14 All-Time Intraday High: 1850.84) (1/15/14 Intraday High for 2014: 1850.84)

1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)

1848 (1/15/14 All-Time Closing High: 1848.38) (1/15/14 Closing High for 2014: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)

1846

1845

1844

1843

1842

1841

1840

1839

1838

1832

1828

1824

1818

1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)

1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52)

1810

1809.35 (50-day MA)

1808 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)

1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)

1806

1804.25 (20-day MA)

1803

1801

1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)

1798.90 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)

1798.03 Previous Week’s High

1798.03 Friday HOD

1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)

1797.02 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

1796

1793

1791

1788

1785

1783

1782.66 (20-week MA)

1782.59 February Begins Here

1782

1781

1777

1776.01 Friday LOD

1775 (10/30/13 Intraday Top: 1775.22)

1773.10 (100-day MA)

1772 (10/29/13 Closing Top: 1771.95)

1770

1768

1763

1762

1759

1756

1752

1748

1747

1745

1740.02 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

1740

1737.92 Previous Week’s Low

1737

1733 (10/17/13 and 1018/13 Gap-Up: 1733.15-1736.72)

1730 (9/19/13 Intraday Top: 1729.86)

1726 (9/18/13 Closing Top: 1725.52)

1722.76 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)

1722

1720

1711.45 (200-day MA; not tested for 1 year extremely odd behavior)

1711

1710 (8/2/13 Intraday Top: 1709.67)

1708

1706

1703

1700

1699.53 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)

1698

1697

1696

1693

1692

1691

1689.12 (50-week MA)

1689

1688

1687 (5/22/13 Intraday Top: 1687.18)

1686

1685

1683

1682

1680

1675

1672

1669 (5/21/13 Closing Top: 1669.16)

1666

1664

1661