Tuesday, February 4, 2014

INDU Dow Jones Industrials Price Action Rhymes with October 2007 Market Top

The similarities in the market price action as compared to the October 2007 market top are striking. Does it mean that equities will play out the same way with the start-of-year print this year lining up as a multi-year top just like October 2007? Time will tell.

The colored circles correlate the similarities. The two market tops were about 12 weeks apart in 2007 and the tops in September and late December are about 14 weeks apart. The bottom blue circle to the top was about 8 weeks in 2007 and about 10 weeks now. Back in 2007, price failed the 200-day MA, then back kissed, resulting in failure, sending price to the same support area as the prior blue circle low. Today we have a back kiss to the 200-day MA occurring so the idea would be that price ventures lower towards the October low, then bounces with a strong recovery rally.

In 2007, price then came up to test and punch up through the 50-day MA in December, but ultimately failed resulting in far lower prices and the multi-year market top was in. If the price action rhymes moving forward, the Dow should drop to 14200-ish over the coming days and perhaps a week or two, then recover up to the 16K area, then roll over again as realization sets in that the markets may truly have printed a multi-year top. It will be interesting to follow. Sometimes the rhyme continues, sometimes not. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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