RTH Retail Weekly and Daily Charts Rising Wedges Overbot Negative Divergence H&S's

Retail Sales is the most important economic data point this week and it hits in less than three hours.  As the weekly chart shows, the resiliency of the great American consumer is astounding. Folks will find money to spend on stuff they do not need even if it means stealing the change from Grandma Edna's pocketbook. The charts say the top is at hand. Both the weekly and daily charts show price moving up into a rising wedge, a bearish pattern, and the red lines show universal negative divergence across all indicators. The daily chart printed a doji candlestick yesterday so today is important to see if the trend change is validated, or not. The short green lines show that the bulls are trying to squeeze some more juice out of the upside so a jog move where price comes back up after a quick sell down is not unreasonable, but the negative divergence will rule overall and lower prices are ahead.

On the weekly chart, the same idea, rising wedge, negative divergence, overbot RSI and stochastics.  A jog move is not unreasonable on the weekly basis as well but the negative divergence will create lower prices moving forward through the weeks ahead. There are several potential head and shoulders patterns developing although all will need right shoulders. On the daily chart, a head at 48 and neck line at 47.4 is a target of 46.8. The blue lines show an H&S with head at 48, neck line at 45.5 so that targets 43.0 if the 45.5 fails. As the year progresses it is likely that RTH will return to the sideways channel through 43-45. The blue lines on the weekly chart show an H&S with head at 48, neckline at 42 which targets 36 if the 42 fails but that can be addressed in the weeks ahead. The Retail Sales data can create a rocket launch higher this morning, or, a drastic drop. The charts say the run in the retail sector is over and that the move lower should begin. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.