Thursday, July 19, 2012

UNG Natty Weekly Chart W Pattern Bottom

UNG, $NATGAS and BOIL are all similar charts as would be expected, all a reflection of natural gas price.  UNG is a 2x ETF and BOIL is a 3x, and both should be viewed as speculative-type trades.  The natty bottom occurred in April with the falling green wedge, oversold conditions and positive divergence shown by the green lines. Price bounced and then received a spank down from the 20-week MA.  After regaining strength, price ran higher, punching up thru the 20-week, placing a higher high in price with all the indicators in a long and strong profile, so higher prices would be expected moving forward.  Since price respected the 20-week, a back kiss to that important level, now at 17.44, would be in order.

Note the W pattern bottom. It is best to look for W bottoms on the daily chart and the strongest moves up will occur when a W forms under both the 50 and 200-day MA's, so you can study this for the UNG daily chart as well as charts for all your positions.  The W bottom was 15-ish, the top is 20-ish so a target for this pattern would be 25-ish.  Note how price has filled the gap from March. An upward-sloping channel is now in place as price forms higher highs and higher lows. The RSI is about to move above the 50% level. All of the above indications point to higher prices moving forward.

The Congress and current Administration continue to hold back natty from its full potential. There is a revolution occurring with natty now but the government is a stumbling block.  Natty can not only help solve out energy needs but also provide a solution to the ongoing structural unemployment in the U.S. Of all things for the government to spend money on, natty is a no-brainer but it receives no respect at all, instead bankrupt solar companies, windmills and algae are the favorites. What a shame.  The natty renaissance will occur with or without the politicians helping; you would simply think that for once maybe they could be part of a solution instead of constantly creating problems, over spending, and wasting all our tax money.  Keep your fingers crossed that the simple minds in Washington will one day comprehend the potential of natty vehicles that require no new technology. Natty vehicles have been in use for decades around the world. If the government would provide natty the slightest head nod, the price would move substantially higher.

The January-February period shows strong congestion between 20-24, especially 22-23. Thus, price will need a bit of time to chomp thru this congestion zone. Traders that went long early in the year are waiting for price to return to this 20-25 area so they can exit after being made whole again. Keystone entered UNG this spring which was too early. In April, however, the bottom was obvious as was highlighted at the time. All in all, natty has further upside ahead as the weeks tick along.  Target is 24-26. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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