Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers Week of 7/23/12

Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time.  The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.

Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:

·         Keystone’s Comments on the Upcoming Week:  The European debt crisis drama continues. The Spanish 10-year yield has blown out to 7.27% only a tiny smidge under the euro-era high at 7.285%, where the danger bell will ring loudly. The Spain-Germany spread has blown out above 600 indicating that the wheels are falling off in Spain.  Italy 10-year yield is over 6%, watch to see if it runs above 6.5% which would indicate major trouble.  Watch to see if riots increase in Italy like they are in Spain and monitor the negative Italian sentiment concerning staying in the euro. Bank runs remain a major concern for Greece, Spain and Italy. Watch the France-Germany spread to directly gauge the contagion of the European debt crisis (France representing the socialistic direction and Germany representing the austerity and fiscally prudent direction) but in recent day’s money is flowing into France as a perceived safe haven so the spread is actually lessening. The European news flow dictates global market direction. Congress is in session for a week or two more, so this is a market negative. Watch for further China easing measures such as lowering triple R’s which will bounce equity markets. Traders have probably priced in the move already, however.  Earnings season is in full swing this week. Many companies warned so the bar is low enough to provide easier beats. About three-quarters of the companies are in line or beating with EPS, which is typical, but over one-half of the companies are reporting top line revenue numbers that are missing expectations clearly showing that the overall economy remains sick underneath the surface.  On Monday, Mickey D’s will set the tone for trading. On Tuesday, Apple will set the tone for trading for the remainder of the week and will greatly impact the tech sector. In January, positive AAPL earnings launched the broad markets to continue the rally this year into the spring market top. Reference the earnings lists below to note the major companies reporting. A major Bradley turn date is Saturday so a Bradley turn window is open from now thru 8/3/12 for a major market turn, or acceleration, to occur. Hang on to your hat the next two weeks as the markets finish July and move into August.

·         Monday, 7/23/12: Chicago Fed Activity Index 8:30 AM. Earnings: ACUR, BIDU, CE, ETN, GOLF, HAL, HAS, JDAS, MCD, NUTR, OPXA, PETS, KWR, SANM, STLD, STEM, TARO, TXN, VMW, YRCW.

·         Tuesday, 7/24/12: Germany/Eurozone PMI’s. Troika (ECB, EU and IMF) addresses Greece and other Euro woes.  Flash PMI Manufacturing Index 8:58 AM. House Price Index and Richmond Fed Mfg Index 10 AM. 2-Year Note Auction 1 PM.  Earnings: AAPL-note any weakness in iPhone sales, APD, AKS, ALTR, BRCM, BTU, COG, CRDN, CBI, CTRP, DPZ, DD, EMC, EZPW, FTI, ITW, ILMN, IGT, JNPR, LMT, MO, NBR, NFLX, NXPI, PCAR, PNRA, PLCM, RF, R, T-monitior iPhone subscription numbers, TRIP, UA, UPS-key indicator of global economic health, WAT, WFT, WHR-insight into housing sector.

·         Wednesday, 7/25/12: U.K. GDP. Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM. New Home Sales 10 AM-potential market pivot. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. 5-Year Note Auction 1 PM.  Earnings: AKAM, AMP, BA, CAT, CCI, CLF, CROX, DAL, F-monitor overseas sales, FICO, GLW, HES, HCBK, IDCC, JBLU, KBR, LLY, LRCX, LSI, LVS, LVLT, OI, PVR, PEP, PX, RT, SKX, SO, SYMC, TCP, TSLA, TMO, TQNT, USG, VAR, V, WDC, ZNGA-watch FB reaction.

·         Thursday, 7/26/12: Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. Pending Home Sales Index 10 AM. Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index 11 AM. 7-Year Note Auction 1 PM.  Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM.  Earnings: ABAX, APKT, ALK, AMZN, ARBA, AZN, BG, BSX, BWA, CB, CELG, CL, CLWR, CNX, COR, CSH, DECK, DOW, DDD, DPS, DRC,  ELY, EXPE, FB-watch ZNGA reaction, FLIR, HLS, HSY, IP, KMB, LLL, LAZ, MHP, MED, MOH, MMM, NOV, NU, NTRI, OSK, PHM, PTEN, RTN, RS, RCL, S, SBUX, TASR, TDY, TLAB, UTX, VMC, WM, XOM, ZMH .

·         Friday, 7/27/12: GDP 8:30 AM.  Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM-market pivot point. Earnings: ACI, CVX, DHI, DTE, HP, KKR, LM, NEM-will impact gold miners, SCCO, WY-proxy for housing.

·         Saturday, 7/28/12: Bradley major turn date (Bradley window now open thru 8/3/12).

·         Tuesday, 7/31/12: EOM. Consumer Confidence 10 AM.  FOMC Meeting Begins.

·         Wednesday, 8/1/12: ISM Mfg Index 10 AM-market pivot point and watch energy markets. FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:15 PM. Full Moon (markets are typically buoyant moving into the full moon).

·         Friday, 8/3/12:  Monthly Jobs Report 8:30 AM-this report is one of four remaining before the presidential election in November.