Monday, December 24, 2018
UTIL Utilities Weekly and 3-Minute Charts; Major Failure at 50-Week MA Ushers in Stock Market Collapse
SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Bear Market
AAPL Daily and Weekly Charts; Death Cross
The daily chart red lines show the negative divergence top that Keystone had highlighted back then and whammo, price receives the neggie d spankdown. The brown lines show a H&S pattern with the neckline failing at 215-ish. With a 235-ish head, that is 20 points difference so the H&S targets 195-ish, which was easily achieved. CEO Cook is hiding under the desk.
The green lines show the positive divergence in play that will bounce price. The RSI is weak and bleak due to the downside momo over the last 2-1/2 days so there may be a day or three of sideways chop. The possie d, however, should win out in the near-term and send Apple higher. The lower standard deviation band is violated so the middle band at 170.36, and dropping, is on the table.
The RSI and stoch's are oversold agreeable to a bounce. The green falling wedge pattern is bullish. The pink rectangle box forecasts long-term trouble. The slope of the 150-day MA flattens and rolls over negatively over the last month. The negative slope on the 150-day MA ushers in a cyclical (weeks and months ahead) bear market for AAPL going forward.
On the weekly chart, price falls like a rock from the neggie d spankdown (red lines). Price has violated the lower band so a move back up to the middle band at 203, and dropping, is on the table for the weekly time frame. The RSI and stochastics are oversold agreeable to a bounce. The stoch's and money flow are completely washed-out and nowhere to go but up. However, the RSI, MACD line and histogram remain weak and bleak. The 150-week MA at 146.66 should hold as solid support.
Thus, taking the daily and weekly analyses, mixing them together and sprinkling some magic voodoo dust on top, paints a scenario of Apple moving higher in the daily time frame so up for a few days or week or so targeting that 160-170 area. The weakness in the weekly chart, however, will likely reexert itself and bring price lower again for a lower low on the weekly basis. Say 140-155 in mid to late January. If you are more of an intermediate term investor and want that more substantive bottom, wait for the RSI and MACD line to turn possie d on the weekly. This should occur 2 to 3 weeks out so perhaps a nice bottom in Apple, on a weekly basis, in January.
The very near term provides the long opportunity but only if you are a nimble trader. Keystone thought he was nimble last week entering AAPL on the long side but Chairman Powell punched Keystone in the face; and then as Keystone spun around with a fat lip, President Trump smacked him in the head with a government shutdown 2x4 (a piece of lumber). Keystone is a few percent underwater on this AAPL long but is holding it. As explained, there should be a near-term pop and then followed by a more substantive bottom forming, on a weekly basis, likely in January.
If you did not listen to Keystone during the late summer that told you to get out of Apple at the top, you likely will have a second chance to at least ditch AAPL stock with better prices. Keystone suggested that long-term holders of Apple scale-out in July-September a perfect call if you listened. You would have locked in all your gains. But alas, if you are now panicked because you held AAPL, believing in Cook, riding the toboggan downhill, the weekly chart will likely bottom next month and you can ditch the stock say in late January or during February when it rallies on the weekly basis.
The indicators on the AAPL monthly chart remain weak and bleak and the RSI and stochastics are now below 50% in bear territory. This tells you that Apple will remain weak on a monthly (long-term) basis going forward. So the January bottom may only create a rally that lasts a few weeks, then Apple will roll back over to the downside and take out the lows in 2019. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Monday Evening, 12/24/18, Christmas Eve: The bulls are spanked again today on a tag-team combo of Mnuchin and Trump beating the markets lower. AAPL drops -2.6% to 146.83 with a LOD at 146.59. Apple is testing that 150-week MA at 146.66 and the support is holding, so far. Price will either bounce or die from this key pivot level.
SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Fibonacci Retracements; Oversold; Lower Band Violation
The blue lines show the proposed Fibonacci retracements to the upside if this current low remains in place. The drop is from the record top at 2941 down to 2408 a huge 533-point crash, -18.1%, on the verge of a bear market. Other major indexes such as COMPQ, NDX, RUT, WTIC oil, XLF (banks), TRAN and SOX are already in a bear market. None of the so-called brilliant analysts forecasted the drop. Keystone did. Corrupt Wall Street deals in insider trading and other nefarious practices that makes them all richer; a bunch of crooks.
Note the large volume last Friday. If a relief rally occurs, price would eventually want to come back down to test the price at this high volume level. For a relief rally that is expected, the first level, Fibonacci-wise, that price would be expected to seek is the 38% Fib retracement at 2611. The 38%, 50% and 62% levels are the key Fibonacci retracement levels for any big price move in either direction. The middle band target is moving lower to join the 38% Fib and create a confluence at the 2580-2635 area along with price support from late October, mid-November and early December. Price should bounce from the oversold RSI, stochastics and money flow.
The green lines show positive divergence in place but the near-term downside momo creates some weak and bleak activity. The SPX hourly and daily charts were poised for a rally until Fed Chairman Powell stabbed equities last Wednesday afternoon. Markets could have survived that but President Trump harpoons the market with a government shutdown. Trump took over 100 points off the S&P 500 to finish the week not a good outcome for a guy obsessed about using the stock market as a gauge of his presidency. The Russell 2000 small caps are down to levels printed in November 2016 when Trump was elected.
The MACD line made a lower low over the 6-week period which is negative. Price may want to chop sideways for a day or three, but should set up again for a bounce. The President Trump and democrat shutdown drama is being priced-in to the charts.
The Santa Claus Rally is the period from the day after Christmas through the first two trading days of the year so 12/26/18 through 1/3/19. There is a strong likelihood for a rally considering the uber low NYMO and uber high put/call ratios. The upside target, if the rally gets legs, is the 2580-2635 area. With volatility high, the VIX is at 30-ish and higher, the wild and erratic upside and downside market swings will continue both intraday and day to day. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
"The Keystone Speculator" Only Wall Street Analyst to Accurately Forecast the S&P 500 in 2018
The 2018 trading year is coming to a close. The stock market is bludgeoned in Q4. The Keystone Speculator is the only Wall Street analyst to accurately forecast the S&P 500 this year.
Many analysts and strategists predicted the SPX to end this year above 3K. Humorously, after the big January and September run-ups, the analysts raised their targets even higher with a few calling for the SPX to end the year at 3200 and 3300. One year ago, the Keystone Speculator explained that the SPX will end this year at 2440. The S&P 500 sits at 2417.
Not too shabby considering that the overpaid Wall Street analysts were calling for 2800 and higher with the majority clustered in the 2900 to 3200 range. They only missed it by 500 to 800 points. Throwing a dart may have provided a better forecast. Much of Keystone's analysis was based on the monthly charts that were topping out this year as he explained as the drama played out all year long.
Comically, President Trump was optimistic one year ago predicting the Dow Jones Industrials would hit 30,000. The Dow topped out at 27K and now sits at 22.4K.
Keystone is putting together the 2019 predictions currently and also will assess and grade the 2018 predictions. Stocks may rally strongly to begin the year. The sentiment is off the charts bearish. China plans to pump its markets and economy with stimulus. China also hints at concessions with the IP dispute with the US so Xi and Trump may kiss and make up early next year creating stock market joy. The SPX monthly chart remains weak and bleak so any multi-week rallies will likely roll over and months down the road the stock market will be expected to be lower than now.
The Keystone Speculator is asked to comment on his spectacular Nostradamus-like forecasting for this year. Scratching at gray whiskers, Keystone calmly and quietly says, "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then."
Many analysts and strategists predicted the SPX to end this year above 3K. Humorously, after the big January and September run-ups, the analysts raised their targets even higher with a few calling for the SPX to end the year at 3200 and 3300. One year ago, the Keystone Speculator explained that the SPX will end this year at 2440. The S&P 500 sits at 2417.
Not too shabby considering that the overpaid Wall Street analysts were calling for 2800 and higher with the majority clustered in the 2900 to 3200 range. They only missed it by 500 to 800 points. Throwing a dart may have provided a better forecast. Much of Keystone's analysis was based on the monthly charts that were topping out this year as he explained as the drama played out all year long.
Comically, President Trump was optimistic one year ago predicting the Dow Jones Industrials would hit 30,000. The Dow topped out at 27K and now sits at 22.4K.
Keystone is putting together the 2019 predictions currently and also will assess and grade the 2018 predictions. Stocks may rally strongly to begin the year. The sentiment is off the charts bearish. China plans to pump its markets and economy with stimulus. China also hints at concessions with the IP dispute with the US so Xi and Trump may kiss and make up early next year creating stock market joy. The SPX monthly chart remains weak and bleak so any multi-week rallies will likely roll over and months down the road the stock market will be expected to be lower than now.
The Keystone Speculator is asked to comment on his spectacular Nostradamus-like forecasting for this year. Scratching at gray whiskers, Keystone calmly and quietly says, "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then."
Saturday, December 22, 2018
NYMO McClellan Oscillator Daily Chart; Uber Low -100 Signals Near-Term Stock Market Bottom At Hand
CPCE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Significant Near-Term Stock Market Bottom At Hand; Huge Upside Stock Market Rally Ahead
The elevated CPCE and CPC put/calls are screaming buy, buy, buy! However, President Trump is yelling sell, sell, sell. The baby politicians always come to an agreement; they are all good at selling their souls. So the shutdown drama should resolve itself and the powerful bullish signals in the put/calls and NYMO (now at -100!) should be respected. Ditch all shorts if you have not already and continue scaling into longs. (Note that Keybot the Quant remains short but the algorithm is programmed to work on a smoother path through the year and does not try to time tops and bottoms.) This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
NYXBT Bitcoin Weekly and Daily Charts; Descending Triangle; Gap; Potential Island Reversal
But alas, bitcoin bites the bullet taking a major hit. Many enthusiasts have now turned their backs on the cybercurrencies indicative of a bottom. The red descending triangle is in play a bearish pattern. Price fell through the lower base line at 6K. The vertical side of the triangle is 3K points. Thus, the downside target is 3K.
The tight standard deviation bands squeezed-out the big downside move over the last six weeks (pink arrows). Tight bands predict that a huge sharp price move will occur but do not predict direction. It is like squeezing a tube of toothpaste tighter and tighter, and tighter, the cap finally flips open and pfffffffftttt, the toothpaste flies out super fast and only then do you see what direction it goes.
On the weekly, the two blue lines show a gap big enough to drive a truck through at 2800-3200. Price usually fills gaps at some point even if it takes a long time. Note all the gap-up moves in 2017 (blue circles). On the bitcoin bull side, look at that juicy gap up top at 12K-14K. Price will either fill the 2800-3200 gap at some point, or, may come down and gap-down through the gap; that would create an island reversal pattern. Note that bitcoin price is on an island above 3200.
Looking at the current price action, the daily chart shows the positive divergence (green lines) that bounced price higher along with the oversold conditions and lower band violation. Keystone could have posted this chart for yinz sooner. Price launches like a rocket off the possie d as would be expected and the stochastics still have upside juice for higher highs for price in the daily time frame. Bitcoin also tagged its middle band at 3741 after violating the lower band at 3088. The upper band at 4393 is on the table.
The weekly chart shows possie d for the indicators except for the RSI that is weak and bleak. As price made a low on the weekly basis, the RSI was still making a low. The RSI, however, is oversold and agreeable to a bounce in price. So the set-up shown on the daily chart was jiving with the weekly chart sans the RSI. The bounce in bitcoin occurs.
The daily chart hints at a couple more days of up. If the RSI moves above 50% into bull territory on the daily chart, bitcoin will likely have a few more days of up. The weak RSI on the weekly chart creates concern. Also, the triangle target at 3K has not been satisfied. The attractive bitcoin trade was last week to take advantage of the possie d on the daily chart.
Perhaps now it is best to wait to see if price weakens again because of that RSI on the weekly. The set-up in general is very nice for bitcoin going forward. A rally in bitcoin will likely jive with a strong relief rally in the broad stock market (on a weekly basis). If you are a die-hard proponent of bitcoin, you can likely begin scaling back in on the long side going forward. The RSI may not be an issue. The middle band at 5770 is an upside target on the weekly chart. Keystone does not own any bitcoin currently.
On the bitcoin monthly chart, there remains weakness. So in the weekly time frame, bitcoin is attractive but after a few weeks of joy and when everyone starts to feel good about cybercurrencies again, bitcoin will likely roll back over to the downside and print new lows in the months ahead. Sorry to break the bad news about the longer-term to the bitcoin enthusiasts. Signed, Gloomy Gus, a bitcoin analyst. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart; Bear Market; Small Caps are Back at November 2016 Presidential Election Levels
The RUT topped out at 1742.09 on 8/31/18. Price is down to 1292 a loss of 450 points a -26% drop off the top. The Russell 2000 is firmly in a bear market (-20%off the top). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; 2-Leg Bear Flag Pattern
The first leg down is 2941 to 2640 for the closing price. You can calculate the lower target price using the 2600 low as well for the first leg. So the drops are 300 to 341 points. Price consolidates sideways which forms the flag, or pennant, and then price begins moving lower again starting leg two from 2800. Thus, the downside landing area for the 2-leg bear flag is 2459-2500 (2800-300 and 2800-341) the blue circle. The SPX prints at this level so the pattern is satisfied and finished.
The SPX topped out at 2940.91 on 9/21/18. A -20% drop off the top, a bear market, is at the 2353 level. The S&P 500 is at 2416 only 63 points away and the Friday LOD was down to 2408 which is only 55 points away from a bear market. The SPX, the broadest measure of the US stock market, the index that is synonymous with the words "stock market," is a tiny smidgen away from a bear market. The COMPQ, NDX, RUT, SOX and TRAN major indexes are all in bear markets. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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