TLRY Tilray and MJ Marijuana ETF Weekly Charts

Smoke 'em if you got them. Pot stocks catch fire to the upside helped by a short-covering panic. The only long-term longs that Keystone held/holds this year were the pot stocks. Remember at the end of last year they were discussed. Positive divergence set up nicely but as sometimes happens, more bad news hit the tape about the over-supplied pot market.

Also, legislation is stalled and legalization talk has not been in the news this year, until now. Several states are ramping up potential bills to legalize recreational pot in addition to medicinal marijuana. This creates the move off the bottom and the shorts panicked. Keystone talked about this when the trades were entered it just took a few extra months for the fun to play out.

A short-seller was crying in his beer yesterday bashing Tilray saying it is a POS so that creates a -12% pullback in TLRY to begin the week; he lost his shirt. That weakness filters into the other pot stocks yesterday but the impressive rally needed a rest anyway.

Look at the massive buying volume in the MJ ETF. Wow. That graphs shows the short-sellers getting raped. If they were not attentive to their short positions, they got smoked. They lost their shirt, and pants.

The standard deviation bands squeezed in tight for MJ so you knew a huge move was coming but the squeeze does not predict direction. It was up obviously and the rocket launch was on. Positive divergence provides the jet fuel (green lines).

TLRY violates the bottom band as it forms the falling green wedge (bullish) so the middle and upper bands are on the table and price shoots higher to the upper band. Price tops out with that Tweezer Top above the top band. This week starts on the -12.6% downbeat. The middle band at 2.16 is in play because the upper band was violated.

Tilray is coming more into balance between buyers and sellers. The RSI and money flow are neggie d as the Tweezer Top printed sending price lower. As TLRY made the new high, however, the MACD and stochastics remain long and strong so after the softness for a week or two, price would be expected to elevate again for another matching or higher high.

As positive soundbites occur, such as potential legalization of pot in Ohio, the charts should pop on each happy story. Short-sellers may be prone to avoid the pot stocks now that many got burned.

Here are some of the pot stock tickers; TLRY, MJ, ACB, CRON, SNDL, VRNOF, TCNNF, GTBIF, IIPR, SMG, GRWG, CRLBF, GRWG, VFF, OGI, CURLF, CLVR, MAPS, MSOS, MJUS, TOKE, CNBS, YOLO, THCX, POTX, PSIL, WEED and DARP. Lots of investors and money people want to be involved in the world of pot. SMG is potting soil and products to grow marijuana so it usually benefits when the pot hype increases. SMG will not bounce as much as the pot stocks but in bad times, SMG would hold up better since its products help grow all plants not just pot.

Keystone had TLRY, MJ and ACB as longs this year. TLRY was exited last week taking profits. Keystone is still holding MJ and ACB long but will be looking to sell going forward; there should be another push higher as per the weekly charts.

If you missed the explosive rally, it may not be wise to chase the tickers expecting more of the same. However, for long-term plays many of the tickers above will likely increase on the long side over the next year even if the stock market tanks. Perhaps because of it. People will be drowning their troubles in booze and pot as the stock market drops and they are laid off in the pending recession. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Hanging Man; Yields Topping-Out Despite Everyone and His Brother Saying Otherwise

The TNX 10-year yield weekly chart above says the top is in for yields, on the weekly basis. What!? You're wrong! Everyone on television and the internet say yields will continue higher forever. You must be smokin' something! Typically, when the boat is fully loaded to one side, in this case everyone expecting higher yields, it is not the place to be.

But no need to guess. Let the charts guide the way. Yield comes up for the matching high last week printing a hanging man candlestick (bearish). The matching high comes with the chart indicators negatively diverged over the last year. The chart is also neggie d from peak to peak over the last 4 months, however, the MACD line has some long and strong fumes left in the gas tank.

Yields may fluctuate at the current levels for a few days even week or so (to satisfy the MACD) but the chart says down in yields going forward on the weekly basis. Of course, a wild card is in play in the days ahead and that is the Federal Reserve. Pope Powell will either kick-in the neggie d action and yields will plummet, or, happy talk will maintain buoyancy in yields for a few more days after his hump day talk, and then the weakness in the chart will exert its influence.

The progress of the chart can be checked as the new week of trading begins to see how the indicators are lining up. As yields begin the neggie d spankdown, that means traders and investors will be buying paper with both fists (yields down so prices in notes and bonds would be moving higher).

Taking it a step further, traders will likely be buying notes and bonds with both hands as they flee the stock market like rats jumping from a sinking ship. The next few weeks should be lots of fun. September and October are not the best months for stocks and if folks are hitting the sell button on equities some of that dough will be going into the perceived safety of Treasuries sending yields lower. Keystone does not hold any positions long or short notes and bonds right now but does have ongoing shorts on the US stock market. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/20/23, Wednesday Evening, at 7:06 PM EST: Fed Chairman Powell delivers the goods today; no hike but one is still on the table for one of the last two meetings of the year. The 10-year yield jumps higher to 4.41% now at 4.40%. Maybe a day or two is needed to absorb the Fed decision but the above analysis and forecast remains in play; yields should go into retreat as investors seek the perceived safety of Treasuries.

Note Added 9/23/23, Saturday: TNX 4.44%. The 10-year yield pops to 4.50% in all the central banker excitement last week. As explained, nothing's changed. Yields are expected to top out going forward as charts are set up with negative divergence. Since semi's have started to break down, that will kick in the ongoing housing and manufacturing weakness, and the economic recession should be in play now. This being the case, the inverted yield curve should dis-invert to usher-in the US recession. Continuing the reasoning, some say it is mental folly but Keystone is used to it, and knowing that yields will retrace lower going forward as per negative divergence in the charts, that means the 10-year yield will retreat slower than the front-end 2-year yield (the 2-year yield will drop faster than the 10-year yield going forward). The UST2Y 2-year yield chart is in negative divergence in the daily and weekly time frames so she should receive a strong spanking occur (yield lower) and this jives perfectly with the above scenario. In October, yields will be slipping lower with the 2-year yield dropping sharply lower than the 10-year yield. Traders and investors will be buying notes and bonds with both fists so that means they will be selling stocks. October is going to be fun.

AAPL Apple Monthly Chart Receives Neggie D Spankdown; China Is Giving Apple the Bum's Rush

Apple is in the news these days with their new product launch. Some say it is the greatest innovation since sliced bread but others say it is a lot more same-o, same-o. The top in AAPL was an easy call on the monthly chart (think long-term). Same as the previous top at the start of 2022. Keystone called both of them. It is not rocket science.

It is interesting that price rallies this year because the prior top in early 2022 was the whole enchilada. All chart indicators were in negative divergence and the RSI and stochastics were overbot (red lines). There was no other direction to go except down. Typically, price will not come back up again for a higher high once the top is in. Price actually needs to drop a long ways down first and then the chart will have to set up with positive divergence.

A news event can always alter the path forward. Charts can only price-in all known information up to the minute. Once a news bomb hits, traders adjust positions and the charts reset. Usually, the charts will reset in their respective time frames and reassume the prior forecasts, however, bombshell news can alter the path for an extended period.

Such is the case with the AI fervor this year. Everyone ripped off their clothes to participate in the AI orgy buying tech stocks with reckless abandon while drinking Fed wine and smoking Congressional crack. A Big Tech cheerleader coughed and it sounded like he said 'AI' so a flood of buy orders immediately hit the tape for tech stocks. The AI orgy is so obscene it would make Caligula blush. Wasn't 5G supposed to be the game-changer. No, it was 3-D printing. No, it was nanotechnology. No, it was...... it was, and is, just another way for the Wall Street insiders to make dough. Boy, you people are dumb.

The AI orgy this year creates a stiff upside thrust that climaxes into another neggie d top and spankdown (maroon lines). Apple is toast. Analysts can say it is the greatest stock ever, and every institution can continue owning it, but they are wrong. The monthly chart says a long-term neggie d spankdown has started. The upper band is violated so the middle band at 160 is on the table as well as the lower band at 123.

The Aroon red line shows that the bears are coming to life and about 2 of every 3 bears believe that the AAPL downside has legs. A couple months ago, all the bears believed Apple stock would continue going up forever. The bulls remain committed. Nearly 100% of the Apple bulls believe that the stock will continue higher forever (Aroon green line). This is the perfect set-up for all of them to get punched in the face. Trading is fun. It makes you laugh.

The ADX shows that the strong trend higher is almost officially over. The rally higher in 2014/2015 was a strong trend but it disappeared during 2016 and early 2017. The upside in AAPL was then a strong trend in late 2017, all of 2018, and early 2019 when it ended. The strong trend higher was verified again starting in the back-half of 2020 (COVID-19 pandemic everything went remote) running through today. This is another metric telling you that Apple stock is toast going forward. The ramifications to the overall stock market are bigtime. The ADX does not show that any down moves were strong trends over the last decade because the stock always refused to go down to ever establish an ongoing down move.

Let's get into a little bit of Divergence Trading 401. Are you ready? When the rally occurred this year, it should have started due to possie d to give it legitimacy. It did not. You can see that AAPL prints the lower low at the start of this year. The RSI, histo and stochastics are positively diverged (sloping higher as price drops lower; bullish) but the MACD line and money flow remain weak and bleak wanting another low in price after a rally occurs. This behavior is ominous for Apple because the monthly chart is telling you that it wants to see price down to 120-130 again and even lower.

To pile on Sapple more, China is starting to hassle Apple production facilities. Of course they are. This signals that the communists have stolen every bit of technology from Apple that they want or think they can steal. Now that the technology robbery is hitting the law of diminishing returns, the CCP dirtbags will increase the harassment of Apple. The communists squeezed every bit of apple juice out of the tech behemoth and now throws it into the trashcan.

CEO Cook did not fall off the turnip, er apple, truck yesterday. He is a smart cookie and has been trying to diversify his footprint from China to Vietnam, India and elsewhere. It may be occurring too slow or is too little too late. India will not be a repeat of China. India is more restrictive and is going to not let Apple dominate the way it did in China. The communists only permitted Apple and Cook to make the gains in China because they needed to steal the technology. There was no other reason. Do you understand this or are you dumb?

Now that the CCP has stolen everything they can from Apple, they do not need it anymore. This is the same modus operandi that started in the 1970's with the textile industries. The US South had factories going 24/7 decades ago churning out beautiful clothes, rugs, draperies; the products were superior quality and employed tens of thousands of workers. Once the textile factories were moved to China, however, that ended. The US factories closed down creating urban and suburban blight across the southern states. This is the reason the middle class ended in America.

One by one, US industries were sold to China and along with that, America's soul. The steel technology was stolen so US steel companies were muscled out of China. Same with cars, chemicals and all industries. Apple's smartphone and other technologies are the latest victim. Tesla will be next. China will start to find violations at Apple facilities and start forcing multi-day factory shutdowns. Management personnel will be accused of breaking laws. Of course, at some point forward, either implicitly, or done in a shadow way, Chinese citizens will be told it is unwise to buy an Apple phone and they should buy from a Chinese manufacturer instead.

Apple will suffer in China and what typically happens is they will pack up and leave. The iPhone is 52% of Apple sales so it is the product that controls AAPL stock price. Numbers fluctuate but about 20% of iPhone sales are in China. That will be big trouble for AAPL stock if China sales go bye-bye.

Apple cheerleaders will debunk such nonsense and negative talk proclaiming that Sapple employs tens of thousands of workers in China, a few hundred thousand jobs are dependent on Apple inside the commie state, and the CCP would never jeopardize these jobs. Of course they will not. That is why as Apple is muscled and harassed out of China, the Chinese smartphone manufacturers will takeover the factories and absorb the workers.

In addition to the China woes, Americans and others are holding on to their smartphones longer. There is no reason to buy a new one if the old one works fine and improvements are only cosmetic or inconsequential at this stage of the life cycle.

Elon Musk at Tesla better be taking notes because what the CCP is and will do to Apple is what will be done to him and Tesla next. The CCP is probably getting close to having stolen all the Tesla robot technology they will use in their own plants.

All that said, bring up an Apple daily chart. You can see the chart indicators are setting up with positive divergence but not yet. Price needs to put in the lower low for a divergence to exist but AAPL would be expected to pop higher from, say, 170-171 anytime over the next couple days and begin a multi-day rally.

The Apple weekly and monthly chart above remain bearish wanting lower lows in both their time frames. Thus, the rally coming in Apple on the daily basis, that may last a few days or week or two, would be an opportunity to take profits if long and get outta Dodge, and/or, go short AAPL if an intermediate term trader, since the weekly and monthly time frames point to lower prices ahead. Keystone does not hold AAPL long or short currently.

Any day forward, China (the CCP) will probably say that a Foxconn (Hon Hai) plant assembling Apple products is in violation of safety codes. Let the festivities begin. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/19/23, Tuesday Evening, at 6:41 PM EST: AAPL is recovering at 179.10. CNBC publishes an article titled, "Channel Checks in China Suggest iPhone Orders Will Be Disappointing, Says Barclays." The festivities have begun.

Note Added 9/20/23, Wednesday Morning, at 10:49 AM EST: Apple and Goldman Sachs ditch a joint venture that was supposed to provide a trading platform for stocks. CEO Cook is interviewed on CBS News about Apple's status in China and he sounds clueless. Americans sold their souls, kissing commie *ss, just to stuff money in their greedy pockets. Chinese people are being riled up and are voicing unhappiness with Apple because an employee looks like 'Fu Manchu' and they complain it is done on purpose to foster racism (obviously, if you know how sick communist China operates, the filthy CCP is behind this fabricated negativity directed at Apple). The festivities are underway.

Note Added 9/20/23, Wednesday Evening, at 7:10 PM EST: The Apple is turning brown collapsing today to close near today's low at 175.49.

Note Added 9/21/23, Thursday Morning, at 8:41 AM EST: AAPL 173.95.

Note Added 9/22/23, Friday Morning, at 8:22 AM EST: Apple's iPhone15 is on sale in 40 countries today. There are jackasses waiting in lines but not like past years. Many of the people in line are resellers. Since supplies may be tight in the first few weeks, these people turn around and resell the iPhones at a profit. Others are waiting in line getting paid by wealthy individuals to pick up a phone or two. A Beijing, China, store is highlighted by a CNBC story that has a couple hundred folks in line. Several people in line say they are there because the other top smartphones in China, such as Huawei, are sold out. Chinese folks do not want to be seen buying an Apple phone and if so, they make excuses because they fear backlash from the filthy communist dirtbag CCP government that controls China (that wants them to buy domestic). There are about 5K Apple stores in China and 25K phones were sold in the first 10 minutes so on average, about 5 phones were sold per store during the first 10 minutes. The Apple hype is just not what it used to be years ago. Most folks are not going to spend over a grand on a phone if they are holding basically the same phone in their hand that works fine. France halts the sale of the iPhone12 due to radiation concerns. News stories are surfacing that the engineers at Apple could not meet the recent goals for the new iPhones. Sounds like they took a bigger bite of the Apple than they could chew.

Note Added 9/23/23, Saturday: AAPL 174.79. Apple trades flat this week trying to hold the 174-175 price support level. The AAPL weekly chart is ugly with the MACD, stochastics and money flow weak and bleak wanting to see more lows in AAPL in the weeks ahead. CEO Cook shows up at a New York Apple store to welcome customers buying the new iPhone15. Cook greets folks holding his hands in a prayer pose. He is probably praying that they buy new phones. The knives are out at Cupertino. Apple engineers are criticized for not being able to meet all the goals of the new iPhone. iPhone sales better hold up or Cook will have to cook the books to make his numbers.

Note Added 9/26/23, Tuesday: Apple CEO Cook says efforts are tripled to boost production and sales of iPhones and other Apple products in India. Cook sees the Chinese writing on the wall so he has the beggin' pads on his knees asking PM Modi for some morsels.

Note Added 9/28/23, Thursday: AAPL drops to 169 now at 170. Apple printed a high at 198 on 7/19/23 and now, only 9 weeks later, collapses to 169, a -15% crash in a correction perhaps headed towards a -20% bear market. Apple consumers are complaining that the new iPhone15 is running much too hot. Apple is trying to hush the naysayers on this excessive heat issue saying the unit is becoming hot due to the setting-up process. This issue has occurred with other phones and is typically remedied with a software update.

Note Added 9/29/23, Friday: The communists slap CEO Cook around a bit more, like a cat playing with a ball of string, saying limits and restrictions will be placed on the Apple app store offerings in red China. Obviously, China is giving Apple the bum's rush, kicking them out the back door, while telling Chinese folks to buy Huawei. The communists likely stole all the information that was available from the Apple factories and assembly facilities so scumbag Dictator Xi and the filthy CCP (the 90 million dirtbags in the communist party control the 1.4 billion Chinese folks) are tossing what's left of the brown Apple core into the trash can. It lands in some uneaten General Tso's chicken. The CCP will step up the harassment of Apple going forward. When you lie in bed with communists and sell your soul to the murdering Xi, do not be surprised if he slits your throat in the middle of the night. Never trust a communist. Even though it was obvious in the 1970's and 1980's, as trade was opened with China, that America's textile industry would be destroyed, the greedy US politicians and corporate executives did not care. All they could see is money and greed and it is the same decades later. Apple sold its soul for Chinese customers but is now no longer of any use to the commies. The festivities continue.

Note Added 10/4/23, Wednesday: Communist China (CCP) is giving McCormick the bum's rush. The spice maker reports weak China sales. The communists must have stole all the spice-making technology from McCormick so Xi and his henchmen no longer need it. MKC crashes -30% over the last 2 months. McCormick is likely receiving the bum's rush out of China just like Apple and just like Tesla will receive. Once the commies steal everything they need, they no longer need you.

Note Added 10/5/23, Thursday: KeyBanc says Apple sales growth is slowing. AAPL sits at 174.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Battle at SPX 4467 Continues; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle

The SPX hourly chart has been of interest as price battles at the critical 200 EMA an extremely important market metric for VST (very short term) and ST trading. It is atypical for such a battle to occur. The crosses are usually far cleaner.

The bulls break out above the 200 EMA in late August with the AI orgy and lower inflation rally. The bears fight back in early September taking back control of the stock market. Bulls say not so fast mid-month and take over the show. Bears slap the bulls in the face on Friday and stumble downfield with the stock market pigskin (American football season has started so are the analogies).

Price collapses after making the bounce or die decision at the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 4467. Watch this number closely going forward. Price will need to back kiss the 4467 to make a bounce or die decision again. A successful back test for the bears will see price come up to kiss 4467 and then collapse into a black hole below. Bulls obviously need the SPX to move back above 4467 or they got nothing.

The blue lines show the ongoing sideways symmetrical triangle pattern that keeps squeezing price forcing it to make a decision by the time, or when, the US government shutdown deadline occurs. Will Congress avert a shutdown and spend more money to save the day in this doomed crony capitalism system? Yes, of course they will; that is all the scumbags know how to do. Like everyone else. Spend money they do not have. The masses then vote for the same politicians since they want the handouts that are promised. Such is the failed human condition and America's crony capitalism breathing its last breaths.

A drop below 4430 out of the triangle will forecast doom and gloom ahead for the US stock market. Conversely, if price can recover back above the 4467, and then pop out the 4490-4500 area, the sky is the limit above. The Housing Starts on Tuesday morning and Fed on Wednesday will move markets. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/18/23, Monday Morning, at 5:20 AM EST: The SPX ends the week at 4450 continuing the sideways slop. The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart bull/bear line in the sand is at 4467 and this number may adjust lightly as the new week of trading begins. 34% of the capital in the SPX is in the top 10 stocks and they have an average PE of 50. That's funny.

GTX Commodities Index Daily Chart Overbot; Negative Divergence; 2-Leg Bull Flag Pattern

Commodities have been on a tear higher. Traders sing that the commodity train is bound for glory. This is a concern of the Fed since the hot services inflation was expected to subside and retreat to join the subdued goods inflation. However, with oil and other commodities jumping higher, goods may be headed towards services. Pope Powell wipes beads of sweat from his forehead.

The upside orgy in commodities is topped-out in the daily time frame. Price rises for new highs but all the chart indicators are negatively diverged (red lines) and the RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback in the daily time frame.

Price has violated the upper band so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 3634, and rising, is on the table. There is some congestion at 3680-ish so that may serve as a downside destination as she rolls over.

The blue lines show a textbook two-leg bull flag pattern. The first leg is 356 points, then the sideways consolidation occurs with a downward bias forming the flag, or pennant if you prefer, and the second leg begins at 3477-ish. Adding the 356 yields 3833 as the upside target and bingo, it is achieved satisfying the chart pattern. The orange diamond pattern also appeared as price was chopping sideways. Many assume this is an automatic reversal pattern but you will see price rise as much as fall out of the diamond.

GTX is topping-out now in the daily time frame and will begin a multi-day down move. The only thing that can change the outcome is news hitting the wires. If news causes the dollar to weaken, commodities will pop higher. If the dollar strengthens, commodities will become soggy.

Even though commodities are set to drop, you can check out CRB which is in the same boat, this is in the daily time frame. Bring up the weekly chart for GTX and you see that the RSI and MACD remain long and strong. The histogram and stochastics are cooked with neggie d on the weekly chart so they will conspire with the negativity on the daily chart to spank price lower in the daily time frame.

The RSI and MACD on the weekly chart, however, want to see another higher high in price going forward. Thus, GTX will stumble in the days ahead and go into retreat perhaps for a few days or week or two, but then price will recover and come back up for another higher high in the weekly time frame.

Keystone is not playing any commodities right now. You can look at DBA as a potential short going forward on the daily basis but you must remain nimble. Traders will want to see the Housing Starts on Tuesday morning and hear from the Fed on Wednesday. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/18/23, Monday Morning, at 5:17 AM EST: GTX ends last week at 3793 with an orgy high at 3826. The daily chart is topping-out with neggie d but the weekly chart remains long and strong. GTX will top-out and retreat for a few days perhaps a week or two but then rally again on the weekly basis to print new highs.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the short side at SPX 4466 in the ongoing choppy sloppy markets. Chips fall on their sword ushering in market negativity. The auto strike begins pulling a wet blanket over the stock market. Chips, retail stocks (AMZN), banks and copper are controlling stock market direction currently.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips bullish yesterday at SPX 4499. The sickening choppy whipsaw slop continues. Copper, chips and utes are controlling stock market direction currently.

Keybot the Quant

WTIC West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Daily and Weekly Charts; Brent Oil Tops 95 and WTIC Oil Tags 92; Oil Spikes Higher on Tight Supplies with Brent Tagging 97 and WTIC 95

Oil is all the rage nowadays. Jed Clampett made a fortune finding black gold in them thar hills and he and kin moved to Beverly. Brent oil is over 92 bucks and West Texas crude is closing in on 90, or is it?

The WTIC daily chart says oil is cooked in the daily time frame. It is topping-out. Price prints higher highs but the chart indicators are all sloping down with negative divergence (red lines). There is no more fuel in the tank to take oil price higher on the daily basis. Money flow is neggie d over the last month but notice that it has some momo over the last couple days. Thus, price may play around for a day or two but the top is at hand, on the daily basis. A multi-day drop will begin and it may even last a week or two.

The RSI and stochastics are overbot on the daily chart also agreeable to a pullback. The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 83.14 and rising, is on the table and also the lower band at 76 if things got ugly with oil and the stock market. The orange line is strong price support at 77.

On the WTIC weekly chart, the double-top, or M-top, pattern was ominous as Keystone pointed out at the time. The chart was in neggie d (red lines) so a top call was easy and down she went. The green lines show the grind lower in oil price during the back-half of 2022 and this year. Price keeps printing lower lows but you can see that the chart indicators were all positively diverged. Thus, a bottom call was easy and voila, price begins the rally higher.

Note how price honored the 200-week MA support at 69. It would be a big deal if that broke since it would likely mean depression not recession. So price runs higher to 89 currently in real-time. The weekly chart shows that the histogram, stochastics and money flow are in neggie d (wanting price to drop now) but the RSI and MACD want to see another higher high in price on the weekly basis after any pullback.

The upper band is violated on the weekly chart so the middle band, that is also the 20-wk MA at 77, is on the table. Moving averages, price S/R and the bands are all ringing the 76-77 bell so keep that in mind as the downside target should the markets fall apart.

The ADX on the weekly chart shows that the trend higher into the double-top in 2022 was a strong trend higher (pink box). However, as oil price topped-out, so did the strong trend status and oil began the multi-month slide lower. Price kept trending lower month after month and the ADX was about to hit the high 20's and move above 30 to indicate that the price move lower in oil was a strong trend lower but alas, it did not. The ADX never considered the fall in oil price in 2022 and this year to be a strong trend lower. The ADX is now way down to 19 so the rally higher from June to present is NOT a strong trend higher.

Trading is playing multi-dimensional chess so marrying the weekly and daily charts together you see that the neggie d on the histo, stoch's and money flow on the weekly will conspire with the universal neggie d on the daily to spank price lower in the daily time frame. All you hear right now is bullish oil talk so these folks will receive a slap to the face as oil price falls in the coming days. The trend lower may last a week or two. You will have to follow the daily chart and wait for it to set up with possie d so you can call the bottom in the daily time frame.

After the multi-day drop occurs, perhaps for a week or two, price will come back up for matching and higher highs on the weekly basis due to the long and strong RSI and MACD. Thus, oil price is topping out today or tomorrow, and will fall for a few days perhaps through next week, targeting 84-ish, then it will recover in October for another high at 90-92.

You will have to follow the charts daily to see how the situation progresses. If the US stock market begins dropping, oil price may target 76-77 right away. If the pullback in the daily time frame is mild say to 84 or 86, and a quick recovery again, the peak on the weekly chart may need to occur first in October and then the following multi-week down move will probably target 76-77 but again, let the charts tell you. There is no need to guess.

As oil drops, that tells you that the US dollar will likely be buoyant at 105+. Some analysts are calling for oil above 100 and discussing price targets at 120 even 130. They are smoking too much of that wacky tobaccy. Keystone does not have any oil trades on right now and will likely not play the drop at hand for oil on the daily basis. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:32 AM EST: Ding, ding, ding. WTIC oil hits 90.00 and Brent oil is at 93.25. USD is over 105. China provides stimulus to goose their economy providing the lift in oil today.

Note Added 9/15/23, Friday Morning, at 6:50 AM EST: Brent oil tops 94 yesterday now at 94.07. WTIC oil pops to 90.50 yesterday now at 90.59. Commie China's triple-R cut yesterday provides the goose to oil prices. Typically, a news event, like this, does not impact the forecast forward with charts but it delays the timing by a few days (as long as the news is not outrageous like the start of WW III). Bring up the WTIC daily chart and the money flow momo prints a new higher high, long and strong, also the RSI squeezes out another high. This is an EOD chart so you can also check the impact of today's trading this evening. The same analysis holds but the top in the daily time frame is delayed for a couple-few days. Today's WTIC chart will provide more clues and especially Monday's. They will zero in on when the top will occur in the daily time frame (when the indicators go neggie d again). China saved the day for a few days.

Note Added 9/15/23, Friday Morning, at 8:54 AM EST: Analysts are guaranteeing 100+ oil in the days and weeks ahead. Brent 93.82. WTIC 90.38.

Note Added 9/165/23, Saturday Morning: WTIC pops to 91 ending the week at 90. Brent is at 93.93. Let's take a look. The WTIC daily chart shows the higher high in price intraday and the RSI is neggie d. Ditto the histo, stochastics and money flow but that pesky MACD line is now long and strong. The MACD line wants to see another matching or higher high so that may be on tap for Monday, more chop in the 90-91 range, but the MACD would be expected to roll over with neggie d and, if all the other indicators remain neggie d, you can call the top in oil in the daily time frame. The Fed may be a wrench in the works next week but the WTIC daily chart is set to top out early next week and begin a multi-day downward slide. On the WTIC weekly chart, the RSI and MACD remain long and strong wanting another matching or higher high for price going forward on the weekly basis. Thus, like the analysis above explains, oil price is topped-out now on the daily basis and will fall for several days, perhaps a week or two, but then recover and come right back up to the 90-92 area on the weekly basis. You can assess and forecast with accuracy if oil is going to top out on a multi-week basis as October begins. Simply look for universal neggie d across all indicators on the weekly chart and you can call the top on the weekly basis (probably will happen early October).

Note Added 9/18/23, Monday Morning, at 5:14 AM EST: WTIC oil runs higher to 91.70 and then retreats to 91.01. Brent oil pops to 94.77 and retreats to 94.03.

Note Added 9/19/23, Tuesday Morning, at 2:31 AM EST: The oil orgy continues. WTIC oil jumps above 92 to 92.46. Brent oil tags 95 overnight now at 94.92 a 10-month high. Let's take a look at the daily chart and see when she wants to top out. Remember, all chart indicators have to be neggie d to call the top. On the WTIC daily chart, price prints a doji candlestick and new high with the chart indicators neggie d and overbot except for the long and strong MACD line. This is an EOD chart so today's pop will have to be priced in as well, but the chart will likely stay as is. Thus, the top is likely 2 days away. A jog move is needed (down-up) to provide time for the MACD to go neggie d and join all the other indicators. Oil price pops today but you have to see how the day plays out. Oil makes a new high but the MACD line may go neggie d today which means this would be the top now. Otherwise, if the MACD remains long and strong, price will retreat for one day, but then come up for another matching or higher high the day after and that will provide the couple days for the MACD line to likely roll over and negatively diverge so you can call the top. You got that? Easy-peasy. Oil analysts universally guarantee oil over 100 bucks as they see Brent at 95. The Saudi's and Russia cut oil supplies driving prices higher and analysts believe China's economy will finally get rolling. The supply cuts deplete inventories around the world. If you bring up the USO daily chart, it is same-o as the WTIC crude daily chart. If you want to speculate and short oil, wait for that MACD line to go neggie d. That will tell you the top is in on the daily basis. The weekly chart remains long and strong so we are talking tactical trading for anyone daring to short the oil market. Oil will top out any day and begin a multi-day drop but after the pullback (when the daily chart will then go possie d), oil will rally again and that is when the analysts may see their one hundo dollar oil (in the weeks ahead although it is not a done deal; you have to watch the weekly charts to see where oil wants to top out on the weekly basis probably in about 2 to 4 weeks which is October). 

Note Added 9/21/23, Thursday Morning, at 8:34 AM EST: The Fed decision was yesterday. Currencies are moving to and fro impacting oil and other commodities. Oil peaked and is soggy the last couple days. WTIC 89.40 (was above 92). Brent 93.16 (was above 95). Analysts continue guaranteeing $100 oil ahead.

Note Added 9/23/23, Saturday: WTIC oil 90.33. Brent 93.27. Oil continues the topping process and those expecting one hundo oil, which is everyone, may not see it (not in only the near-term but also in the weeks ahead).

Note Added 9/26/23, Tuesday: WTIC 88.97. Brent 92.56. There is less talk about $100 oil over the last couple days.

Note Added 9/26/23, Tuesday: WTIC tags 95 at 95.03 the highest in one year now at 93.85. Brent tags 97.69, threatening 98, now at 96.71. Humorously, the talk of $100 oil increases with each analyst and pundit now guaranteeing one hundo oil saying it is cast in stone. It is a good time to take another look at the charts to see how the tight supply news is priced-in. The Saudi's cut production to boost prices over the last couple weeks and overnight the US says oil stockpiles are low creating the spike higher in prices. Sleepy Joe Biden depleted the strategic oil reserve to reduce oil prices for a short-term political win and now the low US inventories are helping to send oil prices wildly higher.

Note Added 10/3/23, Tuesday Morning, at 5:14 AM EST: WTIC drops to 88.84. Brent oil drops below 90 now at 90.64. Analysts are not talking about one hundo oil anymore.

Note Added 10/4/23, Wednesday Morning, at 9:53 AM EST: WTIC drops to 86.66. Trip 6's. Brent oil 88.54. What happened to the one hundo oil crowd?

Note Added 10/5/23, Thursday Morning, at 6:56 AM EST: WTIC collapses to 83.30. Brent oil drops to 84.83. The neggie d spankdown continues. US demand for gasoline is at 3-decade lows. Demand destruction is occurring as oil producers and analysts discuss potential peak oil. XLE pukes over -5% this week thus far. The neggie d spankdown on the XLE charts continues. XOM collapses -5.2% so far this week with CVX down -3.3% and OXY down -4%. Warren Buffett the senile jackass always liked Occidental and probably still owns a boatload. OXY has crashed more than -12% in the last 15 days. XOP pukes more than -7% this week thus far. Keystone was correct on the drop in oil and everyone else was wrong. What else is new? Don't forget the tip jar; donations go to good causes and charities.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; Big Decision on Tap as Government Funding Deadline Approaches

The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart at 4463 is a key VST and ST market signal and the battle continues. Stocks jump higher at the opening bell because the dollar drops. The SPX jumps to 4475 to begin the week so now it is back on the bullish upside.

The blue sideways symmetrical triangle pattern is in play. Price will break out one way or the other going forward. The apex of the triangle hits at the end of this month when the deadline occurs for funding the US debt for America's crony capitalism system. The thick vertical bars are potential price moves out of the triangle which are 280 points and 200 points so one side will be very happy going forward and one side very sad. One pill makes you larger, and one pill makes you small. Go ask Alice.

Price pops to 4475 as mentioned and note that the upper trend line of the triangle is at 4490-ish, you can call it 4480-ish, too, so price is teasing the breakout higher. A pop above 4490 will target 4690+ while a collapse out the bottom of the triangle will send price from 4400 to 4200 and lower.

Use the 200 EMA as the rudder steering the stock market directional ship. A price break above 4480-4490, which will be above the 200 EMA at 4463, signals a euphoric bull party ahead. A price move below the 200 EMA at 4463 and then collapse through 4400 portends pain and misery ahead with blood flowing on Wall Street. Choose your poison.

Let's see. After nearly one-half hour of trading for the new week, the SPX is at 4478 with a HOD at 4491 and the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute is 4463. The stage is set and the drama continues. Obviously, the bulls are trying to poke up through the sideways triangle to signal a big party ahead. The bears are fortifying the 4490-ish level stacking sofas, tires, bicycle racks and chairs on the line trying to prevent further upside. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9/14/23, Thursday morning, at 8:35 AM EST: The SPX is at 4467 and the 200 EMA on the 60-minute is at 4465. The tension mounts.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side yesterday at SPX 4464. Banks and volatility tell the story forward; XLF 34.24 and VIX 15.10 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand, respectively. XLF is at 34.22 in the pre-market and the VIX is jumping higher at 15.38 over the last hour creating this morning's angst. S&P futures are down -30 points. If bullish, you need VIX below 15.10 immediately and XLF above 34.24.

Keybot the Quant