SPX Weekly Chart; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

Here is the important S&P 500 weekly chart that has been developing negative divergence. Is it soup yet? The chart looks like chop suey. It looks like Christmas with the greens and reds that are complimentary colors, like purple/yellow and blue/orange; that is why you see sports teams with these color schemes. Anyhoo, the SPX daily chart received a spankdown due to the neggie d and the weekly chart helped last week's weakness in the daily time frame.

The jury is in. Price makes the matching or higher high the week before last and all the indicators are neggie d (sloping down as price moves higher). This is the kiss of death and price drops for the last 2 weeks. Money flow is playing coy, flatter than a newlywed's souffle, so it may still try to sneak higher if the bulls can keep volatility low and pump stocks higher to begin the week. Dip-buyers are anxious to reenter the market giving the money flow the flattish profile. Overall, the chart is cooked and forecasting far lower prices ahead on the weekly basis.

Good news from the Federal Reserve or others may save the day but the expectation is that a multi-week down move has started. The rising wedge is a bearish pattern. The stochastics and RSI are overbot agreeable to a pullback. The red lines show the neggie d at play that wants to smack price lower.

The upper standard deviation band is violated so the middle band, also the 20-wk MA at 4303, is on the table and also the lower band at 3985 and rising sharply. Some analysts are getting cold feet over the last few weeks and scaling back their euphoric bullish talk. They are pointing to 4300 as a potential downside target so that may hint that stocks are going far lower.

The Aroon shows that the euphoric bullishness remains in place and the 2-week pullback has done nothing to dent bullish confidence and complacency. The green bullish Aroon line is near 100% so almost all of the stock market bulls remain uber bullish waiting to buy dips. The red bearish line is near 0% so almost all of the bears also remain bullish. A negative Aroon cross is out in the future somewhere, maybe in only a week or two, and that would confirm the carnage occurring in the stock market.

The ADX shows that the stock market crash in 2022 was a strong trend lower (pink box) but that strong trend ended late last year. The stock market rally was on the verge of receiving confirmation that it is a strong trend higher but alas, the last couple weeks the ADX is flat and rolling over so the rally may never achieve strong trend status.

The week ahead is pivotal. Keybot the Quant algorithm is short but champing at the bit to go long. VIX 15.63 is telling the market story. Stocks will rally if the VIX remains below 15.63 but selling will enter the picture if the VIX moves above 15.63.

The Hawaii fire tragedy is horrific and like California wild fires, due to a-hole politicians and ecological freaks that refuse to clear-cut land to create firebreaks. The result is lots of humans dead and property damage. Give the idiot people what they want until they realize they are stupid. Maui Waui. Lots of souls were cremated in the fire. There will probably be a few skulls and thigh bones remaining and the hard task to identify those remains will begin. All those souls are welcome into the loving arms of Big Iz. It is a shame that many folks cannot get back to their houses as yet even though all that awaits them is gray ashes and more tears. They're just trying to find a way home, like Joan sings. God Bless all the Hawaiian folks. Donate to the reputable organizations helping them. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Falling Wedge and Positive Divergence Developing

The US stock market receives the neggie d spankdown previously described and forecasted on the daily chart (red lines). There is nothing difficult about calling a top. You have to wait for price to make matching or higher highs and when that occurs, ALL the chart indicators must be sloping lower. Easy-peasy. The bulls are calling the stock market Kind of a Drag.

The blue stars show how price was overextended to the long side above the entire moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower was on tap going forward. Price also tapped the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 4530, was on the table and achieved, and the lower band is also on the table at 4451 and this is achieved on Friday with that low at 4444 (quad 4's).

The ADX pink box shows that the strong trend higher for stocks on the daily basis has ended. The rally in SPX was confirmed as a very strong trend higher in early June pointing the way to more partying for bulls, which occurred. But alas, the ADX falls below the high 20's, where a strong trend higher, or lower, is identified, and the strong trend higher for the SPX is now done.

Price collapses during August into the green falling wedge a bullish pattern. Note how price at 4464 and a LOD Friday at 4444 pauses at the confluence of the 50-day MA support at 4438 and the bottom band line at 4452. This was mentioned in the previous post as a potential magnet area for price, and it was, so it makes sense that price may want to bounce for a day or two while the critical bounce or die decision is made at the important 50-day MA.

The SPX is making lower lows so the indicators can be assessed for potential positive divergence developing so the bottom can be predicted. As price drops, the RSI, MACD, ADX and ROC are all negatively sloped remaining weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows in price going forward on the daily basis. The histogram is flat, ditto the stochastics and the money flow is sloping higher positively diverging against the falling price, wanting to see price bounce for a day or few. The stoch's are also oversold agreeable to a bounce occurring in price right now.

The stronger money flow are the dip-buyers. They cannot help themselves and with all the ongoing bullish chatter in the media each day, itchy fingers want to buy those dips because they expect a big rally into year end. That is what the highly-paid Wall Street analysts say but none of them called the top in the stock market like Keystone did.  Are you in the happy bull camp expecting blue skies and rainbows ahead or are you pulling up stakes and moving on? Investors and traders become chart technicians during difficult periods; jackasses all. Many are buying the dip based on price bouncing off the 50-day dubbing themselves as chartists.

The falling wedge extends a bit further with the apex so there is room to squeeze in another couple of lows. 4400 is strong price support. Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 2's lead to 8's on the way down so 4420 is critical since it would open the door to 4380. Therefore, 4420-ish may be a logical place to bottom. You do not have to guess; simply wait until all the indicators are possie d and then you can call the bottom.

The new moon peaks on hump day this week and stocks are typically soggy moving through the new moon. It is the darkest time of the month so war activity in Ukraine will ramp up in the coming days as the night vision goggles flip down, the night scopes flip up, and it is time to shoot through the pitch-black darkness catching enemies off guard.

Housing Starts are released on Wednesday morning and are uber important to the path ahead. The United States remains in a housing recession since Christmas. America is also in a manufacturing recession currently. Stocks are elevated and folks are happy since the upper middle class and privileged elite are keeping the economy afloat; they are the ones that benefited greatly over the last 14 years due to Fed money printing at the expense of the rest of the country. Be glad the crony capitalism system is in its last throes.

Continental Tire in Europe had bad news a few days ago with weak guidance provided for both Europe and North America. If you do not need rubber and tires folks, that means cars and light trucks are not needed. TSLA, F and GM will require close monitoring. It means that big earth moving machinery is not needed. Every project starts with a hole in the ground. CAT and DE stocks are in euphoria mode so they may have to rethink the road ahead if tires, like heroin, is so passe.

The previous posts discussed the importance of the SPX weekly and whether or not it is negatively diverged (because it paints the picture forward on a weekly basis). Well, is it?

The daily chart above hints that stocks may experience a relief bounce for a day or two, and then, perhaps with the timing of the new moon mid-week, roll over for lower lows and place a bottom on the daily basis once possie d forms. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/19/23: DE stock collapses -9% during the week. It appears that Deere got the tire memo. "Nothing runs like a Deere," except Uncle Johnny at the old folks home after taco night.

WE WeWork Weekly Chart; -99% Crash Over Last 2 Years

WeWork must not be working hard enough since the WE stock has crashed -99% from 15 bucks to 13 cents over the last 23 months. The Einstein CEO announces the other day that he thinks WeWork may not be able to continue as a viable operation. Ya think? Whatever gave you that idea, jackass?

WeWork leases a lot of commercial real estate space providing offices and meeting areas for businesses and workers. The commercial real estate sector is hurting and will worsen on the WeWork collapse. It was a stupid business model with far too many expensive costs versus perceived income.

From the start, Keystone humorously said that WeWork should be called WeDate since workers congregated there mainly to find dates instead of work. Everyone was young once. Like the college library where you did more ogling at the nubile bodies and pretty faces than studying.

History rhymes and repeats. At the peak of the dotcom bubble 1999-2000, Pets.com and Webvan were the two turds that ushered in the end game. Today, WeWork and Beyond Meat are the modern-day poster children. We hardly knew ye. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8/16/23: WE is at 15 cents. What a turd. Lots of people were suckered.

Note Added 8/18/23: WE announces a 40 to 1 reverse stock split to try and get the sinking turd to float. WeWork is likely headed towards delisting.

Messages May Be Sporadic Going Forward Due to Ongoing Censorship, Harassment, Banning, Cancelling and Shadow-Banning of the K E Stone Blogs

The K E Stone blogs (Keybot the Quant and The Keystone Speculator) continue to be shadow-banned and screwed on social media platforms mainly due to the Coronavirus Chronology that chronicled each day of the 3-year COVID-19 pandemic both the successes and the many failures, mistakes and misinformation and disinformation spewed by the US government and medical officials.

The corrupt political parties in America's crony capitalism system (demopublicans and republocrats) are only interested in pushing their sick narratives to maintain power and control. Any information questioning or deviating from the controlled narrative is crushed.

BYND Beyond Meat Weekly Chart; -96% Crash Over Last 4 Years

Beyond Meat is cooked. Stick a fork in it. It is not only well done, it is burnt. Crispy-fried. BYND stock crashes -96% from 240 to 10 over the last 4 years a bloodbath for a meat that has no blood. The jury is in on the salty slop. Why would you eat plastic meat when you can have a juicy hamburger or tasty steak instead?

By the look of the stock chart, people must have tried the new laboratory meat once, and then immediately ran to the mens or ladies room, and then do not want to take a second bite. Plant-based protein. Yuck. Phony meat is as stupid as glorified golf carts (EV's).

Good luck to them but fake meat will probably be viewed as a novelty item going forward. Rancid. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the bear camp yesterday at SPX 4479. Copper and volatility are all that matter for stock market direction currently. CPER 23.73 and VIX 15.62 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand.

VIX dropped below 15.62 this morning creating lift in S&P futures but now, in real-time, the bears are pushing the VIX back above 15.62.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Positive Divergence

The SPX hourly, daily and weekly charts topped-out with negative divergence over the last few days. The charts will need checked tomorrow once the new candlesticks begin printing to make sure the negativity remains in place especially on the weekly chart.

Obviously, the hourly time frame is the fastest moving time frame so it will flip bullish to bearish and back again once or a few times in relation to the daily time frame and many times back and forth when compared to the weekly time frame. Thus, the 2-hour chart is setting up for a rally in stocks, and S&P futures are higher on Sunday evening on the East Coast, but the daily and weekly time frames remain in neggie d wanting lower prices in stocks going forward.

Trading is playing multi-dimensional chess where the time frames are the dimensions. I see some of your eyes are glazing over so simply nod your head yes and say Uh-Huh.

The S&P 500 (US stock market) topped out with neggie d (red lines) in the 2-hour time frame and the spankdown occurs. Price trends lower off the top favoring the lower standard deviation band on the way down. The SPX makes a lower low in price and all the indicators are positively diverged (green lines). A relief bounce is on tap in the 2-hour time frame.

Watch the RSI and MACD. See how their possie d is tentative? After stocks begin trading on Monday morning, check the chart because if either indicator slips for a lower low, that means price will want to jog once more before bottoming (down-up before marking the bottom with possie d across ALL the indicators).

A candlestick will print at 9:30 AM EST, then 10 AM, then 12 PM noon munchtime then 2 PM. Thus, the bottom may be in now on the 2-hour, if not it likely will be on Monday morning. By noon you will know the story. Simply check to make sure that the chart bottomed properly with possie d.

Marrying the 2-hour time frame with the daily and weekly charts, the path ahead is up for stocks probably on Monday and Tuesday, perhaps into mid-week, then the 2-hour chart will again set up with neggie d and top-out again, then the sogginess on the daily and weekly charts will re-exert their negativity as the 2-hour begins dropping again and drag stocks down for the next leg lower going forward.

The 2-hour will begin rallying tomorrow morning and then simply watch it this week to see when the neggie d forms (like the red lines again), and that should be a great top to short. At that time, the 2-hour will roll over again and kick-in the next leg of down for the daily and weekly time frames. Of course, if you do not day or scalp trade, and you instead like to hold positions for many days and/or weeks, you could short the market going forward and not worry so much about catching the exact top on the 2-hour chart.

Check the SPX weekly chart after the new candlestick starts for the week to make sure that time frame is in neggie d confirming the top. A multi-week down move in stocks is going to get everyone's attention. Especially when the bull party is in full swing with rainbows and blue skies ahead and a recession is taken completely off the table by most of the Wall Street analysts. The future's so bright, you gotta wear shades. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Daily Chart

Utilities remain in failure mode forecasting doom and gloom for the US stock market in the weeks ahead. If you are long the stock market, you should be very afraid. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/19/23: UTIL drops to the 878 palindrome. The SPX drops from 4607 to a low at 4335 over the last 3 weeks a -5.9% retreat. Good luck to all of you.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish but Already Wants to Flip Short Again in the Choppy Sloppy Stock Market

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the long side on Friday at SPX 4524 but already is champing at the bit to flip short again. Monday will be interesting. Bears need SPX below 4475 and trending lower. Bulls need VIX below 15.91. Who will win?

Keybot the Quant

BPSPX S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index Daily Chart

The 6 percentage-point reversals are important for the BPSPX and when times are bullish, the 70% level is key. The stock market was in rally mode during July. The Fed wine and Congressional champagne flows like water and the Good Times send stocks to the 80.20 top and closing high at 79.80 (red line).

Thus, taking away 6, is 74.20 and 73.80, respectively; call it 74. If the BPSPX falls through 74, it is a stock market sell signal. That is why price stopped short and is perched on this bull/bear line in the sand at 74 waiting on the AAPL and AMZN yearnings last evening and the US Monthly Jobs Report that drops in 4-1/2 hours. AAPL traded down -2% after its results and AMZN up +8%.

If the BPSPX drops, and then falls through the critical 70 level, it is a double-whammy sell signal and stocks will be falling like rocks.

Bulls need the BPSPX to bounce now; there is no more leeway. It is a bounce or die situation that depends on the jobs numbers. The wages component of the jobs report correlates to inflation so it carries clout.

If the 74 is lost, it leads to a weaker stock market. Remember, stocks are technically weak in the daily time frame currently. However, watch the 70 level because if price comes down and bounces there, that will signal that the bulls are not willing to give up the fight and a relief rally may occur after which another test of 70 would likely occur. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/5/23: The BPSPX ends the week at 72.20 issuing a stock market sell signal. Next watch the 70 level to see if a double-whammy sell signal kicks in, or not. Bulls need a six percentage-point reversal higher to save the day; that is 78.20 (72.20+6).

Note Added Wednesday, 8/9/23, at 7:45 AM EST: The BPSPX drops to 69.20 losing the 70% level issuing a double-whammy sell signal for the US stock market. Bulls need a six percentage-point reversal, that would be 75.20, to stop the negativity.

Note Added Saturday, 8/19/23: The BPSPX collapses to 55.40 continuing the double-whammy sell signal.