SPX S&P 500 Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 1/22/18

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for the trading week of 1/22/18. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R.

The all-time record high print for the S&P 500 is 2810.33 on 1/19/18 and the all-time closing high is 2810.30 on 1/19/18. The all-time record intraday low is 666.79 (the infamous 666) on 3/6/09 and all-time closing low is 676.53 on 3/9/09.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke implemented QE1 in March 2009 to save the US stock market and protect the wealthy elite class that own large stock portfolios. Nine years later, the global central bankers continue colluding and coordinating their obscene Keynesian policies sending world stock markets to all-time record highs. The central bankers are the market.

For 2018, the intraday high is 2810.33 and closing high is 2810.30. For 2018, the intraday low is 2682.36 from the first trading day of the year on 1/2/18 and the closing low for this year is at 2695.81 on 1/2/18.

The upside orgy in the S&P 500 continues fueled by central banker easy money, reduced regulations, especially on the banksters, and the tax-cut bill. Everything is going the bull’s way. Friday, 1/19/18, was the highest print in history for the SPX. These are epic and historic times.

The S&P 500 remains at nosebleed levels in uncharted territory. Price is extended way above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is desperately needed. The SPX needs to back kiss the 20-day MA at 2732 and rising. The SPX has not yet sold off with the low CPC and CPCE put/call ratios so a retreat in the SPX is overdue. Nonetheless, the bulls keep using momentum to create more momentum. New money floods into the stock market this year.

S&P futures are flat to lower to begin the week. The opening bell is a couple hours away. The US government is in shutdown waiting for lawmakers to vote on a spending bill to stop the shutdown at 12 noon EST so that is the next focal point for traders. The BOJ rate decision is tomorrow but no change is expected. The easy money will continue. The World Economic forum begins in Davos so markets will react to news bites from the global bigwigs this week. The big event is the ECB policy meeting Thursday morning; this is the Superbowl. King Draghi’s comments will move markets.

The stock market is sanguine over the government shutdown but if the vote fails at noon, the mood may grow dark. This will make for an interesting close to European indexes that finish at 11:30 AM EST.

Strong support is at 2803. If this fails, the 2298 support will be tested and if that fails, price will seek 2768-2770 S. The bulls have momentum in their camp. Markets are in a Bradley turn window right now where a trend change in stocks is on the table. Bradley’s result in either trend reversals or a wildly strong acceleration move in the current trend. There was a Bradley turn on 1/4/18 which resulted in the stock market melt-up. You would think this acceleration behavior would not repeat a couple weeks later for the 1/17/18 Bradley date but in these markets who knows? There are only three Bradley turns for the entire year and two are this month; the other is in June.

The strongest support/resistance for the SPX (S&P 500) is 2810, 2803, 2798, 2770, 2753, 2751, 2748, 2743 and 2719.

Note: If the list below displays any blank spaces, view it in the Google Chrome browser. If you experience any difficulties viewing the blog sites or in disabling Adblock, you have to view the site in Google Chrome. The data is current up through 1/21/18.

2830

2820

2810 (1/19/8 All-Time Intraday High: 2810.33) (1/19/18 Intraday High for 2018: 2810.33) (1/19/18 All-Time Closing High: 2810.30) (1/19/18 Closing High for 2018: 2810.30)

2810.33 Previous Week’s High

2810.33 Friday HOD

2810.30 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

2808

2807

2806

2803

2802

2799

2798.08 Friday LOD

2798

2793

2778

2776

2770

2769

2768.64 Previous Week’s Low

2768

2759

2753

2751

2749

2748

2749

2748

2746

2743

2738

2736

2731.79 (20-day MA)

2731

2729

2728

2724

2719.33 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)

2719

2714

2713

2700

2698

2696

2696 (1/2/18 Closing Low for 2018: 2695.81)

2695 (12/18/17 Intraday High: 2694.97)

2693

2688

2686

2683

2682 (1/2/18 Intraday Low for 2018: 2682.36)

2681

2679

2676

2674 (12/29/17 Intraday Low; 2673.61)

2672

2670

2668

2666

2665.57 (50-day MA)

2665 (12/4/17 Intraday High: 2665.19)

2664

2663

2662

2661

2660

2659

2658

2657

2653 (12/13/17 Intraday Low: 2652.85)

2652

2651

2649

2648

2673.61 January and 2018 Begins Here

2646

2645

2644

2642

2641

2640

2639

2637

2635

2634

2630

2629

2628

2627

2626

2625

2620

2612.98 (20-week MA)

2606

2605 (12/1/17 Intraday Spike Low: 2605.52)

2601

2600

2599

2597 (11/7/17 Intraday High: 2597.02)

2595.47 (100-day MA)

2595

2591

2588

2585

2584

2580

2579

2578

2575

2573

2569

2567

2566

2564

2560

2555

2551

2549

2548

2547.18 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

2545

2544 (10/25/17 Intraday Low: 2544.00)

2541

2540

2538.75 (10-month MA)

2538

2535

2534

2532

2530

2529

2521

2520

2519

2512

2510

2509.49 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal; the cliff)

2508.28 (200-day MA)

2508

2507

2503

2500

UST10Y 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; 10-Year Yield Prints 2.642% Highest Since July 2014

The 10-year climbs to 2.642% overnight comparing back to July 2014 (blue line and circle). Apple is planning to pay a $38 billion tax bill and will likely sell Treasuries to raise the dough. This creates some of the lift in yields.

Bond king Jeff Gundlach said 2.63% was the line in the sand to call a new bond bear market so that level is hit. Bond king Bill Gross said 2.50% and higher was the line in the sand and we passed that to begin the year. The bond kings now say a bear market is ahead for notes and bonds (lower prices higher yields).

The September 2014 high yield was 2.62%. In early July 2014, the 10-year yield printed at 2.69%.  

The red lines show the negative divergence spankdowns in yields and the positive divergence bottoms are the green lines. Keystone called the tops in yields in late 2013 and in early 2017 and the bottom in 2016. The chart told you the direction forward.

Things are dicey over the last year. Yields dropped to near 2.00% but bounced due to the possie d with the histogram, stochatics and ROC. The stoch's were also oversold last August-September looking forward to a bounce in yields (lower prices higher yields). It occurs, however, note that the RSI and MACD line printed lower lows as price printed lower lows. That hints that yields needed to come back down after a rally but instead, yields continue higher through last year into this year now at 3-1/2 year record highs.

Yield takes out the double-top from one year ago which was at 2.62%. The September 2014 levels at 2.62% are also taken out. The 2.69% from early July 2014 offers up resistance going forward.

Over the last year, with yield now higher, the indicators show blatant negative divergence nowhere near the levels one year ago. There is some long and strong strength in the near term due to the momentum. The expectation is for lots of sideways chop through the year perhaps bumping along through 2.20%-2.80%. The inflationists and those expecting 3.00% may be disappointed as the year plays out. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

The contrast between the Russell 2000 small caps daily chart and the S&P 500 daily chart is interesting and worth exploring. The red rising is an ominous pattern. The red lines show negative divergence as price makes new highs so RUT is out of gas. The upper band was violated at 1591 so price should venture back to the middle band at 1558.

Watch to see if the RSI prints a lower low, or not, and also if the RSI and stochastics drop under the 50% level into bear territory, or not. That will indicate the strength, or lack thereof, of the downside.

The purple box for the ADX shows that the uptrend in October and November was a strong trend but that petered out in December and the move higher in the small caps now is no longer a strong trend.

The bottom rail of that rising wedge pattern is key. An all-out collapse can occur if that trend line is lost at 1574-ish. If that fails, price will likely collapse directly to the middle band at 1558-ish. The RUT daily chart is far more negative than the SPX daily chart that still displays the long and strong MACD line. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

On the SPX daily chart, we are waiting for the negative divergence to identify the top. The MACD line remains long and strong and not willing to negatively diverge as yet. This has to occur for the top to be in on this daily basis. The money flow is now long and strong so that will also need to go neggie d.

The RSI, histogram and stochastics are cooked and the red lines show the neggie d. Stochatics and RSI are overbot open to a move lower. Price is extended above the moving averages requiring a mean reversion lower. The upper band is violated so the middle band, the 20-day MA, at 2726 and rising, is on the table.

Note that price has not back-kissed the 20-day MA since November; this is a long time. Price remained elevated above the 20 for 6 weeks in September-October but now the SPX is above the 20-day MA for 9 weeks running. The SPX needs to show respect to the 20-day.

The ADX shows a strong upward trend in place. The uber optimism and bullish strength this year has created additional joy in the charts which will extend the elevated prices.

For now, in this daily time frame, the RSI, histo and stoch's neggie d will create weakness, as is occurring today, however, after a slump, price will want to come back up using the long and strong MACD line and money flow fuel. If those two indicators turn neggie d at that time, the top is in for this daily basis. The question is whether a short pull back lasts one day, two or maybe three or four days, before price is going to come back up for another high to satisfy the MACD line. The 2-hour chart can be used to see the extent of any downside move.

The low put/call ratios want their pound of flesh from the stock market so the move lower in the SPX, once it begins, may be quick and eye-opening. The SPX will top out as soon as the MACD rolls over at anytime in the days ahead and that may begin substantive downside of 40 to 120 S&P 500 handles.

Note the large selling volume candlestick for Tuesday versus the shorter buying candlestick for Wednesday's euphoric stock market rally.

The SPX weekly and monthly charts continue to show juice in the chart indicators so after the selloff in the daily basis, the SPX will come back up again to the record highs on the weekly basis. The beat goes on. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SOX Semiconductors Daily Chart; SOX Prints New All-Time Record High Taking out the Dot-Com Bubble High

At 3 PM EST, today, Wednesday, 1/17/18, the semiconductors, SOX, prints above 1362, a record high, taking out the all-time high from 3/14/2000. This is a big deal. The semiconductors break out to new record all-time highs. SOX is up a huge +2.9% and prints at 1366.10 the highest number in history. Strike up the band. The bulls are unstoppable.

XLK +1.4%. SMH +2.9%. XSD +1.5%. IBM +3%. INTC +2.7%. MSFT +2%. ASML +7.7%. The memory chip cycle started in 2016 and continues. LRCX +7.3%. KLAC +5.7%. AMAT +5.2%. TXN +5%. NVDA +1.8%. MU +3.1%. AVGO +0.8%. QCOM -0.2%. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

Here is another look at the 2-hour as the quest for the market top continues. Price prints a matching high and the indicators turn neggie d so price receives a spankdown. The MACD was flattish so some buoyancy in price may linger for a candlestick or two.

The upper band was pierced so the middle band at 2766, and rising, is on the table. The 2-hour chart is bearish but remember the SPX daily chart. If you bring that up you can see that the MACD line and RSI are long and strong but the other indicators such as stochastics are neggie d.

On the daily chart, price will likely sink for a day or two, but then come back up to satisfy the MACD and RSI, and if neggie d is in play, that is the top in the daily time frame which leads to more substantive downside. The 2-hour above identifies the VST market machinations. So price is retreating which is agreeable with the daily chart but the daily chart wants another price high so that will bring the 2-hour chart back up probably after a day or two. 

Interestingly, the new moon peaks for the month in 8 hours at 9:17 PM EST. Stocks are typiclly weak moving through the new moon each month. The SPX may drift lower for a day or so but will likely come back up to satisfy the daily chart so THE short term top on the daily chart is likely Thursday through Tuesday. If an event or other catalyst occurs, that may take stocks down right away. The SPX may target that 2766-ish area over the next day or two then recover higher. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

HSI Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Daily Chart Prints All-Time Record Closing High

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index explodes 566 points higher, +1.8%, to 31904.75 an all-time record closing high. The HSI is up +40.4% over the last year. The HSI closed at the high. The all-time high in the Hang Seng is 31958.41 from 10/30/2007 so the Hong Kong bulls have a little more work to do (another 53 points). The prior all-time closing high of 31638.22 from 10/30/2007 is taken out today.

The HSI is at an all-time closing high and at a one-decade all-time high. The bulls will be gunning for 31958 tomorrow. Traders are singing songs and celebrating the glorious stock market gains this evening with chop suey and rice wine.This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

VIX Volatility and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; VIX and SPX Diverging

There are many oddities occurring in markets now as historic price action continues. Since October, stocks continue higher in a parabolic move while the VIX does not move any lower.

Early in 2017, the Fed wine, ECB champagne and BOJ sake was flowing like water with stock moving higher and volatility lower. Oh, what a fantastic world that the central bankers can create. The central bankers maintain their jack boots on the throat of volatility for the last few years to sustain elevated stock indexes.

The bull train is motoring down the tracks with traders singing songs while switching out SPX 2300 hats for SPX 2400 hats and then SPX 2500 hats as October begins. The VIX moves lower with each higher price in the stock market as is expected. The VIX and SPX move inversely to each other and only move in sync less than 10% of the time.

In October, note how the stock market establishes a steeper upward-sloping channel with bulls tripping over each other buying stocks at the ask. That tiny top in stocks in early October occurs as the VIX bottoms. In November, the world changes. The SPX is moving higher but the VIX only prints a matching low; it should be lower.

Then as the stock market continues higher into this year, the VIX prints another low but only matching the prior lows and not lower. With the all-time record highs occurring in the major stock indexes, the VIX should be in the 8's. The VIX printed its record low the day after Thanksgiving in late November at 8.56.

The divergence between stocks going parabolic but the VIX flat hints that stocks are topping out. There is very strong momentum, however, driving price higher like a rocket.

The red circles show market tops and green circles are bottoms. Complacency and fearlessness occurs at the low VIX numbers so these bullish folks are taught a lesson while the high VIX numbers signal fear and panic and the time to buy is when there is blood in the streets. The bearish folks become too bearish at high VIX numbers and they are taught a lesson as the stock market bottoms and begins moving higher.

Stocks are rallying since the year began at that green circle. Oddly, the VIX collapses after that but the stock market refuses to top out. There was a one-day pull back this year but it was so minor that you missed it if you blinked. Going forward, the expectation is for stocks to pull back for a rest as the VIX suggests. Considering the odd action over the last two weeks, something wild may be on deck this month. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

EURUSD Euro to US Dollar Weekly Chart; 3-Year High for Euro; W Pattern Bottom

The euro is moving higher sending the US dollar index lower. A higher euro will hurt Germany's export-driven economy which is the economic engine of Europe. ECB President Draghi is more concerned with each tick higher in the euro.

Interestingly, however, Draghi's lieutenants are talking slightly hawkish to the media about QE ending in September. Draghi may be orchestraing a rise in the euro so he can ride in on a white horse this year professing dovishness which will bring the euro down and basically keep it on an even kilter all year long. The central bankers are in control.

The W pattern bottom occurs which is a very bullish setup and price breaks out at 1.14. The height of the W is 0.09 or 0.10 so adding this to 1.14 is 1.23-1.24. The euro is almost at the 1.23-1.24 target to satisfy the W pattern. The euro is at 1.12270 as this message is typed Monday evening in the States.

The ADX shows that the collapse in the euro in 2014 was a strong trend lower but in 2015 the euro recovered to begin the 2-year sideways channel. A price broke up and out from the W pattern bottom, the ADX shows that the trend is strong to the upside. The ADX is slipping now and that strong uptrend may evaporate.

The stochastics are overbot. The red lines sow neggie d wanting the euro to pull back lower to digest the gains. The euro has momentum, however, and momo always seems to pop price a bit higher as it tries to top. The euro may target that 1.23-1.24 area which also happens to be strong congestion from 2014. The euro is at levels not seen in three years.

The top standard deviation line is violated so the middle band at 1.185, and rising, is on the table going forward. The euro may chop sideways in this 1.22-1.24 area for a week or two, then weaken and roll over to the downside. The US dollar index moves inversely to the euro. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

WEN Wendy's Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation

The monthly charts for restaurateurs such as DRI, MCD and WEN are not well. A soiled napkin and half-eaten french fry is stuck to the dirty linoleum floor. The red lines show the negative divergence in play so a major top is forming. the DRI and MCD charts are similar and the same technical analysis can be applied to those monthly charts. Note, however, that MACD line is trying to squeeze out another sliver of upside joy.

WEN looks exhausted but the MACD line may create one more jog move, down one month or so, then back up to the vicinity of these highs, then, with the MACD line neggie d, the top is in and WEN should move sideways to sideways lower for the remainder of the year. Thus, say the significant top occurs anytime between now and April and these prices may not be seen again for many months even years.

The ADX purple box shows how the upside rally in WEN was one big party in 2014-2016 a very strong trend higher. That petered out in 2016 and over the last 6 months is trying to reestablish that strong upside trend. Considering the chart set-up with neggie d, and an upper band violation, and overbot stoch's and RSI, all bearish signals, the ADX may roll over lower going forward confirming that the strong upside trend is over. WEN can be shorted from current levels and higher. Keystone has not shorted it as yet. WEN should venture down to 13.5-14.5 this year.

Mickey D's has a bit more juice available on the monthly chart than DRI and WEN. DRI has violated its upper band on the monthly and and can drop 20 points this year. DRI and WEN will likely peak out with a multi-month top, perhaps multi-year, between now and April, DRI will likely roll over a touch sooner than WEN. MCD will peak out say in the March to June time frame. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.