SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Tight Standard Deviation Bands to Squeeze Out Big Move

The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart which signals bullish markets for the hours ahead. The bears created a negative 8/34 cross last Tuesday and started to celebrate only to receive a smack in the face last Wednesday as the republicans sweep the table and traders believe a more business-friendly government will begin. The positive 8/34 cross occurs and the bear beatings continue without mercy.

The red lines show the rising wedge pattern and negative divergence creating Friday's top. Monday's trade is underway and price is creeping higher to begin the day perhaps trying to tag the upper band at 2034. However, the spank down occurs with universal negative divergence so there is really no reason for price to come back up again and the 2-hour chart (previously posted) is neggie d across all its indicators as well. Perhaps the tight bands on the 2-hour chart did not yet resolve since the bands above on the 30-minute continue to squeeze-in. There is likely a sharp 20 or 30-handle move at the doorstep to begin at any time. The assumption is that a spankdown will occur. The market bears need the 8/34 negative cross or they got nothing. The MACD cross is negative which is encouraging for the short side.

Keybot the Quant remains long to begin the new week of trading. Volatility and copper are the two parameters most influencing market direction currently (as per the algo). Watch VIX 14.09 and JJC 37.08. Bulls need higher copper, JJC above 37.08, to create another stock market leg higher. Bears need higher volatility, VIX above 14.09, to create a leg lower and stop the market upside. If VIX remains under 14.09 and JJC under 37.08, equities will stagger sideways. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:48 AM: The day is off and stumbling. SPX is 2032 with a HOD 2033.62. VIX is 13.15 a hair higher so either stocks are wrong or volatility is wrong (the SPX and VIX should move in the opposite directions). JJC is 36.60 remaining in the bear camp. So far, status quo, market stagger sideways. The standard deviation bands are squeezing in tighter and tighter for the 30-minute chart. Picture a tube of toothpaste that you are squeezing with the cap on. As you increase pressure, boom, the explosion will be violent. The SPX should take a sharp move up or down in the minute and hourly time frames beginning at any time. The 30-minute and 2-hour charts say down but you never know if the Fed or other central banker is going to grab a microphone over the next hour and promise more stimulus.

Note Added 10:52 AM: The VIX was wrong. VIX loses support at 13.10 and collapses through 13 down to 12.58 creating the bull fuel. The SPX prints a new all-time intraday high at 2036.78. The bulls are unstoppable. Here's a huge spike higher up through the upper band on the 30-minute chart above at 2036. It is surprising to see the squeeze occurring higher. By crushing the VIX lower, the SPX moves higher.

Note Added 10:56 AM: Another new all-time high at 2037.60. VIX collapses to 12.53. JJC 36.62. TRIN is flat neutral at 0.97 unwilling to choose a side today. The upper standard deviation band on the 60-minute chart is 2040 so price is within three points of tagging that goal. Price tags the upper band on the 1-hour chart at 2037. The Dow Industrials and Dow Transports print new all-time highs. The week is starting out with a happy tone. The Dow is above 17.6K. Bears got nothing unless they can push the VIX higher from 12.52.

Note Added 11:06 AM: Dollar/yen 114.64. There you go; look no further for a reason for the upside recovery. The dollar/yen currency pair jumps from 114.00 to 114.64 so the weaker yen sends stocks higher and volatility lower. Banzai!! The BOJ rides to the rescue this morning with Governor Kuroda printing yen like a madman that flows into the stock market pushing the indexes higher. The same technical analysis holds above and is in a fight against the power of the central bankers. All-time high 2037.60. If the bears create a sharp move lower they will have to start the move within the next hour or they will likely be slapped around the remainder of the day.

Note Added 3:21 PM: Dollar/yen 114.90 almost one point off the low. Banzai! The tight bands on the 30-minute squeeze out the move from 2024 to 2037 that occurred after the opening bell but that move is paltry; the bands oddly creep outwards and a far bigger move either up or down would have been expected. Price stutters sideways since. The 1-hour chart bands have created a band so tight and long it looks like a tunnel continuing for the last four days. It all looks fishy so a sharp move is still expected for the SPX and the charts continue to set up for a down move due to the neggie d. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the 30-minute signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. VIX is at 12.46 near or at the day's lows creating bull fuel. JJC drops to 36.47 so bulls do not receive any help from copper in fact copper is weak. The low volatility creates upside joy--along with the BOJ bludgeoning the yen. SPX prints another new all-time high at 2038.70. TRIN is 1.27 in the 1.10-1.30 range for the last couple hours which is representative of steady-eddy selling the only thing is that equities are floating higher instead.

Note Added 3:34 PM: SPX 2036. HOD 2038.70. VIX 12.48. JJC 36.39.

SPX 2-Hour Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence

The 2-hour chart shows a rising wedge pattern, overbot stochastics and negative divergence across all indicators so a spank down is expected. The standard deviation banks squeeze in tight and it is very surprising a quick and sharp move did not occur--yet. The tight bands squeeze out big moves but do not predict direction. Marrying th e neggie d with the tight bands, the expectation is for a sharp move lower. S&P futures are up +3. The upper band is at 2036-2037 so price may want to touch that level which opens the door for a move to the middle band at 2021-2022. The 2024 and 2018 support levels are in play. Referencing the SPX S/R missive posted this morning, key support levels are 2024, 2018, 2011, 2007, 2005, 2002-2003 and 1998. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX Daily Chart Expansion 'Megaphone' Pattern Negative Divergence Developing

In the daily time frame, the SPX price is moving through an expansion pattern shown by the blue lines. This is also called a megaphone pattern for obvious reasons (a handle is added to create the illusion). Right now you would be yelling into the megaphone, "Caution."

The momo is off the charts for this central banker-led rally. The global central banker collusion is epic and historic and it is amazing how the media ignores this important story. The stock market bottom three weeks ago was created by Fed's Bullard hinting that more QE remains on the table. Other dovish Fed members chime in. The BOE then followed with promises of more stimulus. The biggie was the PBOC injecting billions of liquidity into the Chinese banks and corporations which creates more upside. The ECB promises more QE so stocks receive another push higher. Then the BOJ fires the huge QE money bazooka on Halloween, shock and awe; it is raining money at this points and that money sloshing around has to go some where so it pumps stocks (and bonds) higher and the global asset bubbles grow larger and larger. Not to be outdone, the ECB provides dovish talk last Thursday and US elections and the jobs report also create more joy. This is how you receive an over 200-handle SPX rally in three weeks time.

The red lines show negative divergence developing which will spank price lower, as well as the rising red wedge and overbot conditions. However, the MACD line is long and strong and wants another higher high after any pull back in this daily time frame. This jives with the weekly chart that is also negatively diverging but likely needs a couple more weeks to set up properly. The 2024 and 2018 levels are strong support. Price may play around at the upper trend line a couple days and then drop to support then back up then roll over. The lower target zone for the expansion pattern is at 1800-1860. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX Weekly Chart

The negative divergence (red lines) has been weakening price for a roll over but the central bankers keep sweeping in to save the day dropping money from helicopters and pumping the stock market higher. Over the multi-month period, negative divergence remains across all indicators; price is out of gas. However, in the nearer term, due to the central banker goosing, momentum creates momentum. The stochastics and RSI (green lines) likely want to see another higher high after any pull back in the weekly time frame so the bears will likely have to be patient another couple weeks for the top. The multi-month neggie d should re-exert itself before the month ends.

The lower standard deviation band was violated severely with the 1820 low three weeks ago. The indicators were weak and bleak so lower lows would have been expected after any bounce and the middle band at 1970-ish was a good candidate. Price screams up through the middle band and is only about 10 points from the upper band at 2044, which would once again put the middle band in play. The central bankers have a room full of chartists so they knew the markets were falling down the rabbit hole and serious global central banker intervention was needed to save the day; which occurred.

The ADX (pink circles) show how the upside trend in stocks is running out of gas, in fact the upward trend is less strong than last year despite the higher highs in the stock market. Over the last few months note how each high in the stock market is occurring with a lower ADX showing how the upward trend is petering out and running out of gas. The three up weeks' volume does not surpass the prior two week's of down volume.

The expectation is for price to roll over in November topping in this area 2030-2050. This would be in agreement with the SPX monthly chart previously posted and may lead to a mutli-year top for the stock market a la the 2000 and 2007 market tops. The central banker money is powerful but the Keynesian's are receiving less and less oomph with each liquidity injection. Global central bankers are acting in collusion throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the stock market to keep it elevated. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 11/10/14

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 11/10/14. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R. The SPX all-time intraday high is 2034.26 on 11/7/14 and the SPX all-time closing high is 2031.92 on 11/7/14.

For Monday with the SPX starting at the all-time closing high at 2032, the bulls only need two points of upside to print above 2034 and an upside acceleration will occur after the opening bell. The market bears need to push under 2025 to accelerate the downside. A move through 2026-2033 is sideways action to begin the week.

The parabolic move higher in stocks continues fueled by the global central banker collusion. The bullish seasonality factors such as the third year of the presidential cycle and years ending in ‘5’ are encouraging the bulls to chase prices higher. Over the last week, the markets were hit with the BOJ QE shock and awe, mid-term elections, ECB rate decision and Monthly Jobs Report all resulting in an ever-increasing stock market.

The 2024 level is very strong support so a back kiss to this level would be expected going forward. November begins at 2018 so this important level will likely be explored as the month plays out.

2034.26 Previous Week’s High

2034.26 Friday HOD

2034 (11/7/14 All-Time Intraday High: 2034.26) (11/7/14 Intraday High for 2014: 2034.26)

2032 (11/7/14 All-Time Closing High: 2031.92) (11/7/14 Closing High for 2014: 2031.92)

2031.92 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

2031

2025.07 Friday LOD

2025

2024

2023

2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)

2018.05 November Begins Here

2018

2016

2014

2012

2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)

2010

2009

2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)

2006

2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)

2004

2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)

2002

2001.01 Previous Week’s Low

2001

1999

1998

1997

1995

1993

1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)

1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)

1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)

1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)

1983

1982

1980

1978

1976

1973.78 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)

1973

1971.80 (20-week MA)

1970.70 (50-day MA)

1970

1968.05 (100-day MA)

1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)

1965

1964

1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)

1962

1961

1960

1958

1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)

1955.53 (20-day MA)

1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)

1949

1947

1945.58 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)

1943.20(150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

1942

1940

1937

1936

1931

1928

1925

1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)

1923.90 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)

1920

1917.19 (200-day MA; not tested for 22 months extremely odd behavior)

1917

1912

1910

1906

1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)

1901.22 (50-week MA)

1901

1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)

1894

1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)

1889

1886

1885

1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)

1882

1880

1879

1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)

1877

1874

1873

1872

1871

1868

1867

1865

1862

1859

1855

1853

1852

1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)

1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)

1848.36 Trading for 2014 Begins Here

1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)

1846

1845

1843

1842

1841

1840

1839

1838

1837

NYHL New Highs-New Lows Weekly Chart

The trend in the NYHL with less new highs continues over the last few years. In a healthy stock market you want broad-based participation pushing all boats higher signaling strength across the board; the opposite is happening. For example, the Nasdaq is simply pushed higher due to the strength in AAPL and MSFT. Fewer and fewer stocks are making new highs and the upside is driven by market heavyweights.

After the initial QE 1 money pump in early 2009, stocks ran strongly higher verified by higher highs in the NYHL. After 2010, however, the trend is less new highs as the stock market prints all-time highs. The spurts in the NYHL over the last couple years are due to the central bankers goosing the economic system. The BOJ's bludgeoning of the yen last year created the +30% rally in US stocks for 2013.

The NYHL behavior is also verified with the NYAD advance-decline line with less advancers than decliners occurring as equities print higher highs. The NYAD peaked in 2011. If the heavy weights such as AAPL and MSFT roll over there is nothing there to support the indexes. Both AAPL and MSFT weekly and daily charts are negatively diverging although the recent momo creates more momo. The expectation would be for both to top out and roll over this month moving into December. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX 2-Hour Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Tight Bands to Squeeze Out Big Move

It is interesting to see the 2-hour chart not yet squeeze the strong move out due to the tight bands (pink arrows). The bands are starting to expand out so something important should occur with price now, any minute. The overbot stochastics, rising wedge and negative divergence (red lines) across all indicators says down and perhaps sharp down if the tight band move kicks in. We should be exactly at the near-term top right now.

The one-week of four binary events including BOJ QE, US mid-term elections, ECB decision and Monthly Jobs Report are over and all resulted in bullish thrusts 4 for 4. The expectation forward for the near-term for the SPX is down; the neggie d should create a smack down. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 6:17 PM: The SPX teased a little bit lower but the bears have no traction as yet. Same analysis holds and will continue at Monday's opening bell. Perhaps the bulls maintained the elevated price waiting to see if any positive news occurs over the weekend to create more life. VIX is 13.12 remaining under 14.10 causing bullishness. JJC is 36.68 under the 37.08 level causing bearishness. Neither parameter would flinch, so as per the Keybot the Quant algorithm, equities should move sideways, which they do. Volatility and copper will pick up where they left off for Monday. It is odd in the chart above that a sharp move did not occur due to the squeeze of the standard deviation bands. Perhaps a surprise is in store for Monday morning; big up or down. The tanks are not moving into Eastern Ukraine to throw a garden party. The ruble currency is in collapse. Spain Catalonia independence vote this weekend. 25th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall.

Keystone's Midday Market Action 11/7/14; Monthly Jobs Report

The consensus for the Monthly Jobs Report is 240K jobs and a 5.9% unemployment rate. Last month was 248K jobs and a 5.9% unemployment rate. The consensus range is from 200K to 282K jobs. The ADP Jobs Report on Wednesday was 230K jobs. The average hourly earnings are expected to rise from the flat line to up +0.2%. Wages are key since the inflation that the Fed and other central bankers are trying to create cannot exist without wages inflating. The average workweek is expected to remain steady at 34.6 hours.

Minutes before the important jobs report, the S&P futures are flat. Dow +3. Nasdaq +8. DAX -0.4%. CAC -0.6%. FTSE +0.5%. Gold 1146. Silver 15.41. Copper 3.02. Dollar/yen 115.30. Euro 1.2391. Pound 1.5815. 10-year yield 2.39%.

At 8:30 AM EST (1:30 PM GMT London time), the S&P futures bump higher seconds before the Monthly Jobs Report that announces 214K jobs and a 5.8% unemployment rate. The jobs miss expectations at 240K but the unemployment rate beats the 5.9% expectation. There is a 31K increase in the prior month's revisions with last month increasing from 248K to 256K and the weak August number that originally reported the paltry 142K jobs is now revised up to 203K. Interestingly, the very low August jobs number was fudged above 200K so the streak of 200K plus job numbers could extend to nine consecutive months. If the August number was not manipulated higher this winning streak could not be claimed.

There is an average of 224K jobs added per month over the last several months. This is nothing to write home about but at least it is progress. In a normal recovery the job gains should be from 300K to 700K per month. The job gains continue for 49 consecutive months the longest streak since the 1930's.

The average hourly earnings bump higher by a tick +0.1% missing the expected +0.2% increase but at least wages are not flat. The 5.8% rate is the lowest since July 2008 before the major trouble occurred in the markets during the financial crisis. The rate drops as those unemployed long-term are no longer counted. The U-6 unemployment rate drops to 11.5%. The labor participation rate is up one tiny tick from 62.7% to 62.8%. The job gains are across the board, however, Information Services lost jobs.

Stocks jump on the news. S&P +4. Dow +32. Nasdaq +15. The DIS earnings from last evening create a drag on the Dow. The 10-year yield is 2.37%. The US dollar index is 87.97 hanging around the 88 level. Euro unchanged at 1.2398. Dollar/yen 115.06. So as the smoke clears, the US futures are slightly elevated after the jobs report. European indexes recover off intraday lows.

At the opening bell, stocks are weaker and Europe trades lower. The dollar/yen collapses to 114.75. The euro is climbing to 1.243 as Draghi's dovishness wears off.

The negative divergence on the SPX 2-hour chart is creating some negativity to begin the day. Keybot the Quant algorithm remains long and is tracking VIX 14.10 and JJC 37.07. The VIX is 13.70 under the 14.10 creating bullishness in the stock market and the JJC is 36.75 under the 37.07 creating bearishness. Since the algo identifies these two parameters as the most important currently impacting market direction, the stock market staggers sideways. Bulls win big with JJC above 37.07. Bears win big with VIX above 14.10.

The SPX, Dow and TRAN print new all-time highs at the opening bell. The new all-time intraday record high for the SPX is 2032.36.

Note Added 10:56 AM: Here comes the SPX teasing new all-time highs again, printing up on the day above 2032. VIX is 13.61 dropping like a stone creating bull fuel. JJC 36.71. Wow. The TRIN is 0.67 with an uber low 0.59 print a short time ago. No wonder stocks recover off the lows. Low prints like this representing off-the-charts bullish euphoria will need remedied by selling pressure in equities in the day or two ahead, say early next week.

Note Added 11:00 AM: The SPX prints a new all-time intraday high at 2032.44. They keep coming in waves. If VIX stays under 14.10 and JJC stays under 37.07, equities will stumble sideways into the weekend.

SPX Monthly Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Multi-Year Top At Hand

Remember at the end of September, the SPX monthly chart was finally negatively diverged across all indicators indicating a multi-year top at hand. The huge central bank-driven rally over the last three weeks creates a positive month for October (the hanging man candlestick) and new highs but the negative divergence remains. As the SPX prints a new all-time intraday high at 2031.61 and new all-time closing high at 2031.21 both on 11/6/14, the negative divergence remains (red lines). Therefore, a multi-year top is expected to be in place now. It is surprising that the stock market came back up but not so much when you realize the central banks have been pumping stocks for the last six years. Interestingly, the move up is only serving to confirm the multi-year top since the neggie d remains. The end print for this month will be extremely interesting on 11/28/14.

The overbot conditions, wicked and ominous red rising wedge and neggie d all conspire to create market weakness moving forward for the months perhaps year, two years or more ahead. The 18-year secular bear market cycle remains in play 2000-2018 so it would not be surprising to see the stock market down three of the next four years. The collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. Price has violated the top standard deviation band late last year and this year so the middle band at 1824 and rising and lower band at 1541 and rising are in play. The recent sell off teased down towards the middle band (20-week MA at 1824) but it was a cheesy test and this moving average needs to be shown far greater respect. Note how price has remained above the moving averages for years due to the central banker pumping. A mean reversion will occur just as night follows day and prices will print far under the moving averages in the years ahead. Pay close attention to the key 10-month MA at 1946 and 12-month MA at 1924. It is lights out for the stock market if the 12-month MA fails.

Pay attention to the MACD cross as the months play out. That will serve as confirmation that the multi-year top occurred. The pink boxes show that the down trend during the market crash from October 2007 through March 2009 was a stronger trend than the whole six-year rally move higher fueled by the central banks (ADX of 43 versus 39, respectively; blue lines). So all that obscene stock market pumping can not overcome the unresolved power to the downside from years ago, and, the ADX is rolling over now down to 34 showing that the long multi-year rally up trend is weakening.

It has been like waiting for Godot for the market bears. The market bulls continue winning since the correct trade is to rape the stock market for all its worth courtesy of the Fed and other central bankers, however, the technical's say the multi-year historic rally is cooked. Do not get greedy looking for much more upside. Do not listen to anyone that mocks you if you hold cash as a position. It is prudent to get out of the way of the oncoming freight train. Remember, the collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. The multi-year stock market top is at hand.

If the globe and the US fall into a deflationary event a la the Great Depression, those holding cash will be crowned kings with so many bargains available you will not know what to buy while those that are heavily in debt and overextended financially will not be able to buy any bargains. The next couple years may be a crazy ride in the markets. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keystone's November Seasonality Factors for Trading Markets

The September-October stock market selloff is a distant memory as the bulls perform a 100% Fibonacci retracement and print new all-time highs each day this week as the new month is underway. November is in full bullish mode fueled by seasonality factors. Traders are giddy over how the stars are aligned for more bull joy. First of all, the stock market is typically buoyant from the last day of the month into the first four days of the new month; this occurs ending yesterday's 11/6/14 session.

Second, the November through April period is when the stock market outperforms during the year providing another reason for long traders to remain bullish. Third, the third year of the four-year presidential cycle is the most bullish of the cycle. Further, since the 1940's, the period after mid-term elections, October to October, is up in every instance. This equates to October 2014 through October 2015 providing another excuse to buy the market and traders are tripping over each other to buy any stock with a heartbeat. To add icing on the cake, all years that end in "5" are up since the Great Depression pointing to a joyous 2015. No wonder the bulls are giddy. The central bankers continue to juice the stock market so everyone sees nothing but blue skies and rainbows well through next year. The party is in full swing.

September is a weak month which occurred. For September and October, usually one or the other is down which also occurred; September was down and October finished up. November is the start of the seasonally strong pattern for stocks from November thru April where the largest gains on the long side occur in the markets. However, the obscene central banker money printing simply sends stocks higher continuously.

November is the month when turkey's try to hide from Farmer Brown. After the Thanksgiving meal, the men lay on the couch, with a belt buckle loosened, watching football in between bouts of nodding off from the tryptophan ingestion. The markets will be closed Thursday, 11/27/14, to enjoy the holiday. Markets will also close early at 1 PM EST on Friday, 11/28/14, which is the EOM.

This day after Thanksgiving is known as Black Friday, which used to represent the largest retail shopping day of the year where many companies turn profitable on the year due to the strong sales this day (the books go from red ink to black ink). In recent years, the weekend days before Christmas have taken the lead as the largest retail sales days but the day after Thanksgiving remains in the top retail sales days for the year. Retailers are concerned this year due to very light store traffic but lower gasoline prices will help. The main thing hurting retailers is the calendar. Thanksgiving is celebrated late this year with December quickly nipping at its heels. This reduces the shopping days for Christmas and will challenge retail sales. Retail stocks typically peak as December begins.

November has 19 trading days.  The monthly Jobs Report is today, Friday, 11/7/14.  OpEx week is the week of 11/17/14 so watch for Tuesday to Wednesday market buoyancy from 11/18/14 to 11/19/14. Thursday, 11/13/14, will be expected to be volatile (stock market weakness). OpEx Monday's, 11/17/14, tend to be positive days. Housing Starts are important on 11/19/14. The Thanksgiving holiday week begins late this year 11/24/14 and will consist of 3-1/2 days of trading to end the month; the markets are closed on Thursday with a half day Friday. Volume will be light during this week. The shortened Friday session (11/28/14) is typically the most likely up day for the markets of the entire year. Typically, markets are buoyant in front of a holiday (11/25/14 and 11/26/14). The month closes on Friday, 11/28/14; EOM.

November, on average, finishes up 0.9%. The largest gains in the market are made from November thru April (typically a 7.2% gain over this five-month period); flat returns occur May thru October (although the central bankers create constant upside with the easy money over the last few years). Many traders look to invest money in early November and that is occurring in spades in recent days. Q4 is typically the best quarter during the year with an average return of 4.3% during October-December. Tech and biotech are typically strong in Q4 but these sectors as well as nearly all other asset classes are already pumped to robust highs.

November and December are typically considered the two best months to buy stocks with traders getting in on the ground floor to take advantage of the bullish November to April period. New York REIT's, such as NLY, are possible long plays into the end of the year since much of Wall Street bonuses are spent on real estate. An old Wall Street adage says, "Buy on Thanksgiving and sell on New Years to pay the Christmas bills," thus, markets typically reward the long players from mid-November into the first week of January.

Congress has a light schedule to finish the end of the year in a 'lame duck' session. Lawmakers will prefer to do the heavy lifting once the new year begins after 11/5/14 but will tackle spending bills for Ebola and the war against ISIS as well as potential tax breaks. The stock market is typically down when Congress is in session and up when not in session. So the fighting between Congress and the president may create some angst but traders will expect the holiday cheer and positive seasonality mentioned above to overrule any gloominess.

Steel stocks typically run up from November into the end of the year and you see them gaining in recent days. The world's largest steel producer, MT, pops +3% this morning on positive earnings. Traders like to buy steels the last week of November and sell them the last week of December, and then short them in January. Steel stocks are at lofty levels like all other sectors, however, due to the central banker intervention so seasonality factors must be viewed in this context and age of never-ending easy money.

The Dawali Festival occurred in late October a week or so ago so gold buying in India tends to trail off afterwards. Gold prices were not aided by Dawali this year. In recent years, copper has been a buy in November and sell in February-March. Back to stocks, some investment houses close out their books ending November so this sometimes leads to EOM selling. Markets are typically down one-half percent for the final two days of November. This year the final two days are the Thanksgiving holiday so the EOM November lull may occur during the final week and at least negate the positivity expected by moving into a holiday.

On the eclectic side, Keystone's Eclipse Indicator highlights certain areas of the year as potential large market selling event areas. The September top this year was marked by this technique one year in advance and nailed that top within days. Markets are in another eclipse window currently through the EOM which makes the markets vulnerable to a potential large market selloff to begin like September-October. Markets tend to be buoyant at the full moon and tend to sell off moving into the new moon. Interestingly, the full moon occurred last evening, 11/6/14, at 5 PM EST and the stock market floated higher moving into the full moon. The new moon is 11/22/14 so market weakness may be on tap from 11/21/14 through 11/24/14. Monday, 11/24/14, is the deadline for the US and Iran to reach a nuclear agreement.

A Bradley turn date occurs 11/22/14, then 12/7/14 and 12/26/14, so a wild finish may be on tap to the end the trading year (3 turns over the next seven weeks). Bradley turns do not predict direction only that a market inflection point is at hand. For the 11/22/14 turn date, a window is open now, from 11/10/14 through 11/28/14 for a market inflection point, or melt-up or melt-down, to occur, and more specifically 11/19/14 through 11/26/14. The 10/7/14 Bradley turn resulted in a market bottom and the 10/16/14 turn, the last turn date, resulted in a market top, so the two previous Bradley's were spot on.

The ECB rate decision and press conference occurred yesterday, Thursday, 11/6/14, and President Draghi talked dovishly bashing the euro lower. Europe must weaken the euro so a growth path can develop for this troubled continent. The US Monthly Jobs Report is imminent, today, 11/7/14.