Markets have become a circus. Keystone's proprietary trading algo, Keybot the Quant, flips short at SPX 1943 for an unprecedented quadruple flip this week; Monday going long, Tuesday going short, Wednesday going long and now Thursday going short again. The price action is amazing. Stay alert for another potential whipsaw in these wacky markets. Watch XLF 23.11 and RTH 62.15 as two key bull-bear lines in the sand. Markets will lock in substantial downside if RTH fails at 62.15. Bulls will recover with XLF moves above 23.11. More information is found at Keybot's site;
Keybot the Quant
Stock chart patterns and technical analysis (TA) explained simply. Disclaimer: This blog and all its contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade or invest based on any information seen on this blog. Please read Terms of Service. The K E Stone blog sites (Keybot the Quant) are blacklisted by Google, so enjoy the ad-free experience, and only use the Donate button when supporting the sites. AI is NOT used for any content on this blog.
Thursday, October 9, 2014
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish
The circus continues as Keystone's trading algorithm, Keybot the Quant whipsaws again flipping to the long side at SPX 1962 into the closing bell. RTH and XLF ran into the bull camp today and the NYA overtook the critical 40-week MA at 10638. Watch this closely tomorrow. Bulls will rule and bears will be killed moving forward if NYA stays above 10638 and moves higher. If NYA drops under 10638, the bears will stop the market upside. More information is found at Keybot's site;
Keybot the Quant
Keybot the Quant
SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross Downward-Sloping Channel Positive Divergence
Keybot the Quant is short as the erratic market circus continues. The algo is tracking RTH 62.13 and XLF 23.08 as the two key parameters affecting market direction. RTH is 62.46 in the bull camp creating market bullishness. XLF is 22.88 in the bear camp creating market bearishness. If the status quo remains, equities stagger sideways like a drunk in Times Square on Satuday night. If XLF moves above 23.08, equities will be running higher in a strong relief rally and Keybot may flip long. If RTH drops under 62.13, equities will crumble and the market carnage will begin again.
Watch the 8/34 cross. The 8 MA is 1935-ish so the bears need to keep price under here to continue the broad market selling. Bulls will be happy by pushing the SPX up through the 1936-1937 R and higher. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 6:34 PM: The late day surge was a surprise with equities catapulting higher due to the FOMC Minutes. One day becomes more ridiculous and comical than the next. The rally is due to traders celebrating global and US economic weakness and the prospect that easy money will stay in place for as far as the eye can see. Traders maintain confidence in the Fed since the stock market rallied. One day all will realize that if the Keynesian experiment has not worked in six years it will not work. That reckoning and loss of confidence is the end game and this afternoon would have been a perfect time for that realization and inflection point to occur, however, instead, the Fed wine is flowing like water again. The Fed now reverses its thinking from worrying about inflation and a strengthening economy to worrying about deflation and a weakening economy and long traders comment by saying "give me another drink." It is all shameful but join the bullish party. It's time to rape the upside again. The 8 MA catapults higher towards the 34 MA but it dropped a hair short of creating the positive 8/34 cross but this should occur at the opening bell tomorrow. The bears need to push strongly lower at the opening bell tomorrow if they want to fight back otherwise they will likely roll over. The SPX blew through the strong 1951 resistance, overcame the 100-day MA at 1961.80, overcame the strong 1960-1961 resistance and even overcame the 20-week MA at 1968.47 by a tiny hair. Use this 20-week MA as an important pivot for Thursday. Price should back kiss the 100-day at some point forward. The 1973 is uber strong resistance and the HOD is 1970.36. The 50-day MA is 1973.59 so you can see that 1973-1974 is a big-time line in the sand for bears, a resistance ceiling; the bear's last stand tomorrow. Bears are up all night long fortifying the strong 1973-1974 resistance with all their might. If bulls move up through 1973-1974 price goes to 1985-1986. Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side in an unprecedented triple flip week, long on Monday, short on Tuesday, and long today. Remarkable price action. The bulls push NYA above the important 40-week MA at 10638 which determines if the broad indexes are in a cyclical bull market or cyclical bear. The cyclical bulls are back in charge. Bears need NYA under 10638 pronto; it is uber important. If the NYA stays above 10638 and moves higher, the bulls are going to use the bears as a punching bag going forward.
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross
The 8 MA stabs down through the 34 MA on the 30-minute signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead and this agrees with the SPX under the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1978 signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. The BPSPX remains under 70 and moving lower a bearish indication. The important NYA 40-week MA cross highlighted on the weekend, an important Keystone cyclical signal, shows price under the 40-week MA at 10630 ushering in a cyclical bear market for the months ahead. So things continue to shape up for bears.
For today, the failure in financials is pulling markets lower. US regulators threaten more legal action against the big banks so billions more in fines and legal fees will affect the banks' bottom lines over the coming months. Keybot the Quant whipsaws over the last day and is now on the short side again with XLF 23.12 identified as the most important parameter currently dictating broad market direction. XLF is at 23.01 so equities remain weak. Watch RTH 62.10 since a failure from this level will create signficant market downside. RTH is at 62.35.
The chart above shows important S/R at 1988, 1985-1986, 1973, 1960-1961, 1951, 1924 and 1910. Price is playing around in the very wide 1924-1951 zone. If the SPX stays under 1951 today, that will signal more weakness ahead targeting 1924 support. A move above 1951 resistance will open the door for a test at the critical 1960-1961 resistance which includes the all-important 100-day MA at 1961. The indicators are hinting at some sideways ahead as the bulls and bears sort out who is stronger. Yesterday, the SPX back kissed the 50-day MA at 1974 and the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1978. Today price back kisses the 100-day MA at 1961, all three are successful back tests, so price continues to stumble lower. The 1951 price is an important pivot level today.
The 150-day MA is 1930 and was tapped for support three days ago. Watch XLF 23.12 since it dictates market direction the remainder of the day. XLF is at 23.03 continuing the market negativity. Monitor the 8/34 cross shown in the chart above. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 11:55 AM: XLF 23.05 with the bulls trying to push the banks higher. RTH 62.37.
Note Added 12:00 PM: XLF 23.04. RTH 62.37. SPX 1953.
Note Added 1:21 PM: XLF 23.05. RTH 62.41. SPX 1954. The XLF ventured higher to back test the important 23.12 but could not break up through. The battle for XLF 23.12 continues. The 10-year yield is down to 2.36% creating a deflationary vibe.
Note Added 1:46 PM: XLF 23.03. RTH 62.39. SPX 1953. TRIN is 0.96 at the 1.00 neutral level unwilling to commit to the bull or bear side today (below one is bullish and above one is bearish). Keystone took profits on both ATRS and RIG exiting the long trades but will reenter long going forward; both stocks should have more upside for the weeks ahead. Coal stocks are becoming very attractive for a bounce. CLF is setting up for a bounce but no positions in coal or iron ore as yet.
Note Added 3:09 PM: XLF 22.94. RTH 62.25. SPX 1944. Equities leak lower but note that the retail stocks have not broken down at the RTH 62.10 so for now the market downside should not get out of hand. That said the SPX is down -22 and Dow off -211. Financials lead lower with XLF -1.5%.
Note Added 3:24 PM: RTH 62.15 only one nickel from the bull-bear line at RTH 62.10 identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm. Markets will recover if the bulls can hold the line at RTH 62.10. If RTH fails at 62.10, markets are going down the rabbit hole and the weakness will be sustainable going forward. RTH 62.15.... 62.16 ........ bulls know the stakes are high so they will be pushing RTH higher with all their might...... Keystone bot back RIG opening a new long position again. Keystone bot CLF opening a new long position. CLF has collapsed and the daily chart is not fully positively diverged as yet. Cliffs fell off the cliff and is due for a dead-cat bounce. The RSI, histogram and stochastics are positively diverged on the daily so a bounce should occur for CLF but price will likely come back down again for another look. CLF is reaching a washed-out stage where the risk-reward is starting to favor the long side but it is a dangerous and speculative trade.
Note Added 3:35 PM: RTH 62.20. Bears need another dime lower.
Note Added 3:40 PM: RTH 62.19..... 62.16 ..... 62.18 ... bulls are fighting for their lives trying to hold the RTH 62.11 support. It will be interesting to see if the full moon manifests positivity overnight, or not. Markets are bullish about two-thirds of the time moving through the full moon which hits at about 7 AM EST tomorrow morning.
Note Added 3:56 PM: RTH 62.12, whoa, the bulls are cutting it close hanging on by a thread with minutes remaining............. the clock just fell off the wall at the Eccles Building. Fed Chair Yellen is under her desk. Phone calls, emails and test messages directed at former Fed Chairman Bernanke are going unanswered.
Note Added 3:58 PM: RTH 62.08. Boom. Failure occurs. Markets are in big trouble.
For today, the failure in financials is pulling markets lower. US regulators threaten more legal action against the big banks so billions more in fines and legal fees will affect the banks' bottom lines over the coming months. Keybot the Quant whipsaws over the last day and is now on the short side again with XLF 23.12 identified as the most important parameter currently dictating broad market direction. XLF is at 23.01 so equities remain weak. Watch RTH 62.10 since a failure from this level will create signficant market downside. RTH is at 62.35.
The chart above shows important S/R at 1988, 1985-1986, 1973, 1960-1961, 1951, 1924 and 1910. Price is playing around in the very wide 1924-1951 zone. If the SPX stays under 1951 today, that will signal more weakness ahead targeting 1924 support. A move above 1951 resistance will open the door for a test at the critical 1960-1961 resistance which includes the all-important 100-day MA at 1961. The indicators are hinting at some sideways ahead as the bulls and bears sort out who is stronger. Yesterday, the SPX back kissed the 50-day MA at 1974 and the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1978. Today price back kisses the 100-day MA at 1961, all three are successful back tests, so price continues to stumble lower. The 1951 price is an important pivot level today.
The 150-day MA is 1930 and was tapped for support three days ago. Watch XLF 23.12 since it dictates market direction the remainder of the day. XLF is at 23.03 continuing the market negativity. Monitor the 8/34 cross shown in the chart above. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 11:55 AM: XLF 23.05 with the bulls trying to push the banks higher. RTH 62.37.
Note Added 12:00 PM: XLF 23.04. RTH 62.37. SPX 1953.
Note Added 1:21 PM: XLF 23.05. RTH 62.41. SPX 1954. The XLF ventured higher to back test the important 23.12 but could not break up through. The battle for XLF 23.12 continues. The 10-year yield is down to 2.36% creating a deflationary vibe.
Note Added 1:46 PM: XLF 23.03. RTH 62.39. SPX 1953. TRIN is 0.96 at the 1.00 neutral level unwilling to commit to the bull or bear side today (below one is bullish and above one is bearish). Keystone took profits on both ATRS and RIG exiting the long trades but will reenter long going forward; both stocks should have more upside for the weeks ahead. Coal stocks are becoming very attractive for a bounce. CLF is setting up for a bounce but no positions in coal or iron ore as yet.
Note Added 3:09 PM: XLF 22.94. RTH 62.25. SPX 1944. Equities leak lower but note that the retail stocks have not broken down at the RTH 62.10 so for now the market downside should not get out of hand. That said the SPX is down -22 and Dow off -211. Financials lead lower with XLF -1.5%.
Note Added 3:24 PM: RTH 62.15 only one nickel from the bull-bear line at RTH 62.10 identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm. Markets will recover if the bulls can hold the line at RTH 62.10. If RTH fails at 62.10, markets are going down the rabbit hole and the weakness will be sustainable going forward. RTH 62.15.... 62.16 ........ bulls know the stakes are high so they will be pushing RTH higher with all their might...... Keystone bot back RIG opening a new long position again. Keystone bot CLF opening a new long position. CLF has collapsed and the daily chart is not fully positively diverged as yet. Cliffs fell off the cliff and is due for a dead-cat bounce. The RSI, histogram and stochastics are positively diverged on the daily so a bounce should occur for CLF but price will likely come back down again for another look. CLF is reaching a washed-out stage where the risk-reward is starting to favor the long side but it is a dangerous and speculative trade.
Note Added 3:35 PM: RTH 62.20. Bears need another dime lower.
Note Added 3:40 PM: RTH 62.19..... 62.16 ..... 62.18 ... bulls are fighting for their lives trying to hold the RTH 62.11 support. It will be interesting to see if the full moon manifests positivity overnight, or not. Markets are bullish about two-thirds of the time moving through the full moon which hits at about 7 AM EST tomorrow morning.
Note Added 3:56 PM: RTH 62.12, whoa, the bulls are cutting it close hanging on by a thread with minutes remaining............. the clock just fell off the wall at the Eccles Building. Fed Chair Yellen is under her desk. Phone calls, emails and test messages directed at former Fed Chairman Bernanke are going unanswered.
Note Added 3:58 PM: RTH 62.08. Boom. Failure occurs. Markets are in big trouble.
Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish
Keystone's trading algo, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the short side after the opening bell today at SPX 1951. That is the first whipsaw for the algorithm in many months. Markets are very erratic and unstable currently. Financials are hit as regulators plan to clamp down and bring more charges of currency manipulation against the big banks this year into next. Watch XLF 23.12 bull-bear line in the sand. Financials are impacting market direction more than any other parameter currently. XLF price is at 23.12 so a bounce or die decision is occurring. Bulls will take the stock market higher if XLF overcomes 23.12 and higher. Bears will rule under XLF 23.12. Equities will flush lower if RTH loses 62.10. More information is found at Keybot's site;
Keybot the Quant
Note Added 11:09 AM: XLF 23.03 so the bears are pushing lower. RTH is 62.44 so the bulls are relinquishing some near term downside but not giving up the fight since retail stocks remain handily above the RTH 62.10 line in the sand. Equities are a circus this week thus far. Keep your seat belt latched. Watch XLF 23.12 since it will dictate market direction for the remainder of the day.
Note Added 11:16 AM: XLF 22.99. RTH 62.35.
Keybot the Quant
Note Added 11:09 AM: XLF 23.03 so the bears are pushing lower. RTH is 62.44 so the bulls are relinquishing some near term downside but not giving up the fight since retail stocks remain handily above the RTH 62.10 line in the sand. Equities are a circus this week thus far. Keep your seat belt latched. Watch XLF 23.12 since it will dictate market direction for the remainder of the day.
Note Added 11:16 AM: XLF 22.99. RTH 62.35.
Keystone's October Seasonality Factors for Trading the Markets
The cool Autumn days of October are here as Keystone dreams of fresh pumpkin pie with cinnamon sprinkles. October is the notorious month that congers up images of market crashes and panic leading to the Wall Street adage, "The October Effect." This effect is simply the perception that the market tends to do poorly in October. Notable dates include; The Panic of 1907 occurring in October, "Black Thursday" on 10/24/29, "Black Monday" on 10/28/29, "Black Tuesday" on 10/30/29 and "Black Monday" on 10/19/87, where the Dow Industrials dropped -23% in one day!
Returning to the seasonality aspects, the broad markets are up about 0.2% for the month of October, flatish, nothing to write home about but definitely not a large negative number which would be assumed considering the crashes and bad connotations that come with October. September logs a down month which was expected seasonality-wise although 2012 and 2013 went against the seasonality printing gains.
Technology and biotechnology sectors typically do well in Q4 (October-November-December) but both sectors have already ran a long way to bubble levels. Stocks are typically up +4.3% in Q4. October is typically not a good month for small caps (RUT) stocks. Many traders try to position themselves in tech during September and October to take advantage of the seasonality strength. The Fed and other central bankers, however, have distorted markets and destroyed price discovery which lessens the expected influences of seasonality factors and patterns.
October is the last month of the weak May thru October trading season. The largest gains in the market (on the long side) are made between November and April. This year as in recent years, due to central banker intervention, the stock market moves higher in the May to October period knocking down the ole adage, "Sell in May and go away." The central banker money printing is powerful making the wealthy wealthier with huge stock market gains.
Gold is typically buoyant from August thru October with the India and China holiday events and marriage seasons on tap. Gold printed in the 1180's one day ago and has bounced back above 1200. Diamonds, however, are gaining in popularity challenging gold as a gift selection. The coming Diwali "festival of lights" in India (10/22/14; 10/23/14) typically marks a pull back for gold. Typically a peak in oil prices will occur in October; bad news for long oil traders considering the recent slump in oil due to robust supply and weaker global demand. Oil may have peaked early this year. Interestingly, the turmoil in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Middle East and Northern African oil-producing regions in general are not increasing the fear premium in oil. Gasoline prices are usually at their lows in the fourth quarter and prices at US pumps continue to fall as oil price falls.
The results from the back-to-school sales help to project the holiday season sales and the school sales were lackluster. The Retail Federation, however, projects a +4.1% increase in holiday sales this year. Watch for any indication of early sales since this will indicate trouble ahead for retail stocks since they are having difficulty moving merchandise.
Typically, market buoyancy occurs early October as the new quarter begins, from the last day of the old month through the first 4 days of the new month, with new money being put to work. The first day of October resulted in a sell off but markets place a near-term bottom and recover the last three days as would be expected due to seasonality. A full moon occurs early morning 10/8/14, tomorrow, and equities are typically bullish moving through the full moon. The new moon is 10/23/14 in the afternoon and markets are typically bearish moving through the new moon. OpEx is Friday, 10/17/14 so Monday, 10/13/14, would be expected to be bullish. Also, a Tuesday low (10/14/14) typically leads to a Wednesday high (10/15/14) during OpEx week. The SPX is typically up the final couple days of October and Halloween, 10/31/14, marks the last trading day of the month on a Friday.
The ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference was 10/2/14; the BOE Decision is 10/8/14. The Jobs Report was 10/3/14 and next jobs report is 11/7/14 after the mid-term elections. Columbus Day is 10/13/14 but markets remain open. The Eid al Adha Muslim holiday took place over the weekend 10/3/14 through 10/5/14.
On the esoteric side, a Bradley turn date occurs on 10/7/14, today, identifying a window through 10/14/14 for a market trend change to occur. Another Bradley turn date rapidly follows on 10/16/14 which creates a window from 10/9/14 through 10/23/14 for a market trend change so the windows overlap. Thus, the Bradley's are forecasting some choppy moves in stocks this month. Keystone's Eclipse Indicator targeted the 9/1/14 through 9/29/14 time period as having potential for a major market top. So far the call was dead-on as market topped out on 9/19/14. The entire time period now through mid December is susceptible to equity selling and a second eclipse window is targeted for 11/3/14 through 11/28/14 where markets may peak and a large selloff may occur, however, the drop from the September top may take much of the negative energy out of the picture for the November time frame.
Thus, mixing the seasonality factors together and sprinkling magic dust on it all, the expected seasonality patterns should push stocks higher into Thursday, 10/9/14. Monday, 10/13/14, would be expected to be a positive day. A Tuesday, 10/14/14 low should lead to a Wednesday, 10/15/14, high. Stocks may be weak from 10/21/14 into the last week of the month and then stocks should finish the last couple days of the month bullish say 10/29/14 through 10/31/14. The Bradley turns should create choppy markets in October. Remember, seasonality factors should be viewed simply as an underlying market current. Picture yourself in a stock market canoe on a calm day. Without paddling, the stock market canoe will drift in the direction of the seasonality factors.
Returning to the seasonality aspects, the broad markets are up about 0.2% for the month of October, flatish, nothing to write home about but definitely not a large negative number which would be assumed considering the crashes and bad connotations that come with October. September logs a down month which was expected seasonality-wise although 2012 and 2013 went against the seasonality printing gains.
Technology and biotechnology sectors typically do well in Q4 (October-November-December) but both sectors have already ran a long way to bubble levels. Stocks are typically up +4.3% in Q4. October is typically not a good month for small caps (RUT) stocks. Many traders try to position themselves in tech during September and October to take advantage of the seasonality strength. The Fed and other central bankers, however, have distorted markets and destroyed price discovery which lessens the expected influences of seasonality factors and patterns.
October is the last month of the weak May thru October trading season. The largest gains in the market (on the long side) are made between November and April. This year as in recent years, due to central banker intervention, the stock market moves higher in the May to October period knocking down the ole adage, "Sell in May and go away." The central banker money printing is powerful making the wealthy wealthier with huge stock market gains.
Gold is typically buoyant from August thru October with the India and China holiday events and marriage seasons on tap. Gold printed in the 1180's one day ago and has bounced back above 1200. Diamonds, however, are gaining in popularity challenging gold as a gift selection. The coming Diwali "festival of lights" in India (10/22/14; 10/23/14) typically marks a pull back for gold. Typically a peak in oil prices will occur in October; bad news for long oil traders considering the recent slump in oil due to robust supply and weaker global demand. Oil may have peaked early this year. Interestingly, the turmoil in Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Middle East and Northern African oil-producing regions in general are not increasing the fear premium in oil. Gasoline prices are usually at their lows in the fourth quarter and prices at US pumps continue to fall as oil price falls.
The results from the back-to-school sales help to project the holiday season sales and the school sales were lackluster. The Retail Federation, however, projects a +4.1% increase in holiday sales this year. Watch for any indication of early sales since this will indicate trouble ahead for retail stocks since they are having difficulty moving merchandise.
Typically, market buoyancy occurs early October as the new quarter begins, from the last day of the old month through the first 4 days of the new month, with new money being put to work. The first day of October resulted in a sell off but markets place a near-term bottom and recover the last three days as would be expected due to seasonality. A full moon occurs early morning 10/8/14, tomorrow, and equities are typically bullish moving through the full moon. The new moon is 10/23/14 in the afternoon and markets are typically bearish moving through the new moon. OpEx is Friday, 10/17/14 so Monday, 10/13/14, would be expected to be bullish. Also, a Tuesday low (10/14/14) typically leads to a Wednesday high (10/15/14) during OpEx week. The SPX is typically up the final couple days of October and Halloween, 10/31/14, marks the last trading day of the month on a Friday.
The ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference was 10/2/14; the BOE Decision is 10/8/14. The Jobs Report was 10/3/14 and next jobs report is 11/7/14 after the mid-term elections. Columbus Day is 10/13/14 but markets remain open. The Eid al Adha Muslim holiday took place over the weekend 10/3/14 through 10/5/14.
On the esoteric side, a Bradley turn date occurs on 10/7/14, today, identifying a window through 10/14/14 for a market trend change to occur. Another Bradley turn date rapidly follows on 10/16/14 which creates a window from 10/9/14 through 10/23/14 for a market trend change so the windows overlap. Thus, the Bradley's are forecasting some choppy moves in stocks this month. Keystone's Eclipse Indicator targeted the 9/1/14 through 9/29/14 time period as having potential for a major market top. So far the call was dead-on as market topped out on 9/19/14. The entire time period now through mid December is susceptible to equity selling and a second eclipse window is targeted for 11/3/14 through 11/28/14 where markets may peak and a large selloff may occur, however, the drop from the September top may take much of the negative energy out of the picture for the November time frame.
Thus, mixing the seasonality factors together and sprinkling magic dust on it all, the expected seasonality patterns should push stocks higher into Thursday, 10/9/14. Monday, 10/13/14, would be expected to be a positive day. A Tuesday, 10/14/14 low should lead to a Wednesday, 10/15/14, high. Stocks may be weak from 10/21/14 into the last week of the month and then stocks should finish the last couple days of the month bullish say 10/29/14 through 10/31/14. The Bradley turns should create choppy markets in October. Remember, seasonality factors should be viewed simply as an underlying market current. Picture yourself in a stock market canoe on a calm day. Without paddling, the stock market canoe will drift in the direction of the seasonality factors.
Monday, October 6, 2014
GTAT GT Advanced Technologies 3-Minute Chart Bankruptcy Declared
The morning flush in stocks occurred as the bottom fell out of GTAT. In the most shocking news of the entire trading year thus far, GT Advanced Systems, maker of the Sapphire glass used in AAPL smartphones and other electronic products, declares bankruptcy. Although GTAT was shunned by AAPL concerning the iPhone6 models Apple had awarded GTAT with contracts for the Apple Watch. To say the news is shocking is an understatement. So the Apple Watch will be using parts made from a bankrupt company under reorganization.
Many retail investors, as well as funds, were long GTAT and their entire investment has just vaporized in a blink of an eye. It occurs completely out of left field. GTAT collapses -90%. The cliff begins at 9:42 AM where the stock stops trading (red circle) then whammo, complete instant collapse when the news wires announce the GTAT bankruptcy (blue circle). At 10:45 AM the stock was toast at one buck. It's over. Anyone long the stock was taken out and executed today and the GT collapse took the broad markets down.
Tech has been softening lately. Semiconductors have been weakening indicating that there may be trouble in tech paradise. SOX is down -1% today and has fallen from 660 to 610 (now back to 617), -7.6%, in the last two weeks. The chips are an important bellwether for the economy since a chip is placed in just about every product manufactured these days. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Many retail investors, as well as funds, were long GTAT and their entire investment has just vaporized in a blink of an eye. It occurs completely out of left field. GTAT collapses -90%. The cliff begins at 9:42 AM where the stock stops trading (red circle) then whammo, complete instant collapse when the news wires announce the GTAT bankruptcy (blue circle). At 10:45 AM the stock was toast at one buck. It's over. Anyone long the stock was taken out and executed today and the GT collapse took the broad markets down.
Tech has been softening lately. Semiconductors have been weakening indicating that there may be trouble in tech paradise. SOX is down -1% today and has fallen from 660 to 610 (now back to 617), -7.6%, in the last two weeks. The chips are an important bellwether for the economy since a chip is placed in just about every product manufactured these days. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish
Keystone's proprietary trading algo, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bull side after the opening bell at SPX 1974. The SPX gapped and crapped this morning and now stutters sideways at 1970. Stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side, however, NYA is at 10665 remaining above the critical 40-week MA at 10630 so the stock market should remain buoyant. More information is found at Keybot's site;
Keybot the Quant
Note Added 2:09 PM: The wild erratic day continues with NYA losing the 10638 level but then regaining 10638; up and down like a yo-yo. NYA jumps above 10638 creating broad market lift, now it retreats again sitting at 10638-10639 creating weakness. You put your left foot in, you put your left foot out, you put your left foot in and shake it all about, you do the Hokey Pokey and turn yourself around, that's what it's all about....everybody now......the bull-bear fight continues..... and NYA 10638 is the battlefield.
Keybot the Quant
Note Added 2:09 PM: The wild erratic day continues with NYA losing the 10638 level but then regaining 10638; up and down like a yo-yo. NYA jumps above 10638 creating broad market lift, now it retreats again sitting at 10638-10639 creating weakness. You put your left foot in, you put your left foot out, you put your left foot in and shake it all about, you do the Hokey Pokey and turn yourself around, that's what it's all about....everybody now......the bull-bear fight continues..... and NYA 10638 is the battlefield.
Saturday, October 4, 2014
NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart 40-Week MA Cross Cyclical Bull Market Remains in Place
The first hour of trading on Monday will be critical for the path ahead for the stock market. The importance of the NYA 40-week MA cross cannot be understated. Watch it like a hawk since it tells you who will win over the short and intermediate term ahead, and potentially for the long term ahead. The bears have not shined since 2011 and 2012. The huge stock market gains are due to the ongoing obscene central banker intervention, especially the Fed and BOJ, pumping equities higher with easy money to make the wealthy, that own stocks, wealthier. The stock market gains in 2013 are due to the BOJ bludgeoning the yen as Governor Kuroda runs the printing presses 24/7.
The red rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence created the initial spank down off the top as Keystone forecasted at the time. Price returns higher to print a double top, an M Top, with neggie d remaining across all indicators, so down she goes again as Keystone indicated about one month ago. The red lines show weak and bleak indicators so after any bounce occurs, lower prices would be expected. Note that the RSI has slipped under 50% into bear territory for the first time in two years. The power of the central banks is astonishing, however, and always serves as a wild card, pumping the markets higher and not permitting the stock market to ever correct properly. This creates fluff and air under the stock market that will be reconciled some day forward. The question is whether it is only -10% or -15% of fluff, or is it -80% fluff? The central bankers have pumped markets higher for nearly six years and all asset classes are now inflated with many in bubble territory.
Watch the NYA 10629 level on Monday and you can ignore everything else. If the NYA stays above 10629 it will be a big bull party next week with the Fed wine and BOJ heroin in full supply. If the bears push NYA under 10629, severe market carnage and mayhem will begin. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 11:30 AM on Monday, 10/6/14: The NYA leaps above 10700 after the opening bell so the bulls punch the bears in the face staying well above the 10630 line in the sand representing the 40-week MA. The broad indexes stagger sideways after a gap and crap. The NYA is 10660 remaining 30 points on the bull side.
The red rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence created the initial spank down off the top as Keystone forecasted at the time. Price returns higher to print a double top, an M Top, with neggie d remaining across all indicators, so down she goes again as Keystone indicated about one month ago. The red lines show weak and bleak indicators so after any bounce occurs, lower prices would be expected. Note that the RSI has slipped under 50% into bear territory for the first time in two years. The power of the central banks is astonishing, however, and always serves as a wild card, pumping the markets higher and not permitting the stock market to ever correct properly. This creates fluff and air under the stock market that will be reconciled some day forward. The question is whether it is only -10% or -15% of fluff, or is it -80% fluff? The central bankers have pumped markets higher for nearly six years and all asset classes are now inflated with many in bubble territory.
Watch the NYA 10629 level on Monday and you can ignore everything else. If the NYA stays above 10629 it will be a big bull party next week with the Fed wine and BOJ heroin in full supply. If the bears push NYA under 10629, severe market carnage and mayhem will begin. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 11:30 AM on Monday, 10/6/14: The NYA leaps above 10700 after the opening bell so the bulls punch the bears in the face staying well above the 10630 line in the sand representing the 40-week MA. The broad indexes stagger sideways after a gap and crap. The NYA is 10660 remaining 30 points on the bull side.
Friday, October 3, 2014
SPX Daily Chart
The bulls enjoy a strong upside rally today mainly fed by financials. The 100-day MA is 1959.45 and was taken out to the upside today now it serves as support. The 20-week MA is 1964.92. The 50-day MA is 1974.71 and will need back kissed at some point forward. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute, a critical bull-bear line in the sand, is 1979.76. Combining these levels with the horizontal S/R levels identifies key support and resistance levels at 1988, 1985-1986, 1980, 1973-1975, 1965, 1959-1961, 1951-1952, 1928 and 1924-1926. Price is currently fighting at the 1965 S/R deciding which way to go.
Note how price collapsed under the lower standard deviation band yesterday that had to be responded with a vertical spike higher, by definition, and desire to move back to the middle band which is also the 20-day MA at 1985.30 and dropping. The 20-day MA is dropping quickly and will be at the 50-day MA level at 1975 in a day or two. So a back kiss of the middle band would put the 1973-1975 and 1980 resistance levels in play. The indicators are not tipping their hand.
The red lines made calling the two tops easy as Keystone described along the way. Remember the craziness at the tight band squeeze at the top? The neggie d controlled the direction and created the spankdown from the tight band. The thin blue lines for the indicators show a preference for price to stagger sideways. Note how price bounced off the 150-day MA so that moving average carries clout moving forward. Simply follow the support and resistance above to gauge the strength of the market today.
The 8 MA pierces above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart this morning signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. See previous chart. The SPX is under the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1980 signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. One of them will flinch and join the other camp and this will verify the market direction ahead.
Keybot the Quant remains short and is tracking financial and the NYA index as the two key market directional influences today. Watch XLF 23.07 and NYA 10630. XLF popped above the 23.07 bull-bear line in the sand (identified by the algorithm) so this sends equities higher today. The NYA attacked the 10630 bull-bear line in the sand but pulled back. This peak and pull back creates the earlier market high and pull back. As this message is typed, here comes NYA again, now up to 10622. This is very important. The stock market will ride an orgy of joy higher if NYA 10630 is taken out now only 8 points away. Equities will stumble sideways to sideways lower the remainder of the day if NYA does not move above 10630. The market bears need to push XLF under 23.07 to accelerate the market selling again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 12:32 PM: Equities are melting up. The SPX is at 1968.16 so the 1973-1975 resistance is in play and this encompasses the 50-day MA at 1974.76. The NYA is at 10623, interestingly, not yet at the 10630 bull-bear level identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm. Despite the stock market intraday highs, the algo wants to see NYA above 10630 to prove that up is the direction forward.
Note Added 12:35 PM: NYA 10625 only five points away from confirming the bullish euphoria. SPX 1967.
Note Added 12:39 PM: NYA 10629. SPX 1968. It's on a silver platter for the bulls; all they need is one more point in the NYA, and to remain above 10630 and equities will take another strong leg higher. Bulls are so close they can taste it. What say you NYA?
Note Added 12:43 PM: NYA 10632. The bulls punch up through NYA 10630 so markets should take another leg higher. Dow is up over 200 points above 17K. The NYA needs to hold this level and higher for 7 to 10 minutes to lock it in so the bears have a chance to reverse the bullish joy but only in a window of the next few minutes. SPX 1970. Whoa. NYA jumps to 10635.
Note Added 12:47 PM: NYA 10638. Bulls are locking it in and should enjoy a euphoric market up day today. Markets will remain elevated as long as NYA stays above 10630 so keep an eye on this today as a main market directional tool. The 50-day MA is 1974.79 and serves as a resistance ceiling. The 50-day needed a back kiss at some point anyway so it may as well be right away today. If price teases the 50-day MA that will set up a bounce or die decision. For now, NYA is 10638 above 10630 so the SPX remains elevated at 1970.
Note Added 12:58 PM: Whoa. NYA 10642 so the bulls are locking in the upside path.
Note Added 3:38 PM: NYA 10637. The bulls kept the NYA Index elevated all afternoon to keep the broader stock market elevated. Remember, the NYA is one of the few signals mentioned here that you can follow on your own. The key NYA level is the 40-week MA now at 10629.30 and this level identifies a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market for all equities. So it is very important and needs to be watched all next week. The day will end happy at these levels unless the bears can push the NYA 7 points lower. Market volume is not impressive only at a run rate of three-fourths of a day's average volume. The SPX HOD is 1971.19. That is an odd level to peak at since it was so close to the 1973-1975 you would figure it would test this key resistance. Perhaps on Monday. The 50-day MA is 1974.77. Bulls were so close they should have at least touched the 50-day with a quickie spike.
Note Added 3:48 PM: Whoa. Late day drama. NYA collapses to 10632 handle...... bounces back to 10635 .......
Note Added 3:53 PM: NYA 10637 so the bulls want to keep the party going into the weekend.
Note Added 4:06 PM: NYA 10644 running higher in the final minutes so the bulls have a big feather in their caps going into next week and equities remain in a cyclical bull market using the NYA 40-week MA cross metric. SPX ends at 1968. Perhaps Monday morning SPX price will jump to 1975 for a bounce or die decision to begin the week.
Note how price collapsed under the lower standard deviation band yesterday that had to be responded with a vertical spike higher, by definition, and desire to move back to the middle band which is also the 20-day MA at 1985.30 and dropping. The 20-day MA is dropping quickly and will be at the 50-day MA level at 1975 in a day or two. So a back kiss of the middle band would put the 1973-1975 and 1980 resistance levels in play. The indicators are not tipping their hand.
The red lines made calling the two tops easy as Keystone described along the way. Remember the craziness at the tight band squeeze at the top? The neggie d controlled the direction and created the spankdown from the tight band. The thin blue lines for the indicators show a preference for price to stagger sideways. Note how price bounced off the 150-day MA so that moving average carries clout moving forward. Simply follow the support and resistance above to gauge the strength of the market today.
The 8 MA pierces above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart this morning signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. See previous chart. The SPX is under the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 1980 signaling bearish markets for the hours and days ahead. One of them will flinch and join the other camp and this will verify the market direction ahead.
Keybot the Quant remains short and is tracking financial and the NYA index as the two key market directional influences today. Watch XLF 23.07 and NYA 10630. XLF popped above the 23.07 bull-bear line in the sand (identified by the algorithm) so this sends equities higher today. The NYA attacked the 10630 bull-bear line in the sand but pulled back. This peak and pull back creates the earlier market high and pull back. As this message is typed, here comes NYA again, now up to 10622. This is very important. The stock market will ride an orgy of joy higher if NYA 10630 is taken out now only 8 points away. Equities will stumble sideways to sideways lower the remainder of the day if NYA does not move above 10630. The market bears need to push XLF under 23.07 to accelerate the market selling again. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 12:32 PM: Equities are melting up. The SPX is at 1968.16 so the 1973-1975 resistance is in play and this encompasses the 50-day MA at 1974.76. The NYA is at 10623, interestingly, not yet at the 10630 bull-bear level identified by the Keybot the Quant algorithm. Despite the stock market intraday highs, the algo wants to see NYA above 10630 to prove that up is the direction forward.
Note Added 12:35 PM: NYA 10625 only five points away from confirming the bullish euphoria. SPX 1967.
Note Added 12:39 PM: NYA 10629. SPX 1968. It's on a silver platter for the bulls; all they need is one more point in the NYA, and to remain above 10630 and equities will take another strong leg higher. Bulls are so close they can taste it. What say you NYA?
Note Added 12:43 PM: NYA 10632. The bulls punch up through NYA 10630 so markets should take another leg higher. Dow is up over 200 points above 17K. The NYA needs to hold this level and higher for 7 to 10 minutes to lock it in so the bears have a chance to reverse the bullish joy but only in a window of the next few minutes. SPX 1970. Whoa. NYA jumps to 10635.
Note Added 12:47 PM: NYA 10638. Bulls are locking it in and should enjoy a euphoric market up day today. Markets will remain elevated as long as NYA stays above 10630 so keep an eye on this today as a main market directional tool. The 50-day MA is 1974.79 and serves as a resistance ceiling. The 50-day needed a back kiss at some point anyway so it may as well be right away today. If price teases the 50-day MA that will set up a bounce or die decision. For now, NYA is 10638 above 10630 so the SPX remains elevated at 1970.
Note Added 12:58 PM: Whoa. NYA 10642 so the bulls are locking in the upside path.
Note Added 3:38 PM: NYA 10637. The bulls kept the NYA Index elevated all afternoon to keep the broader stock market elevated. Remember, the NYA is one of the few signals mentioned here that you can follow on your own. The key NYA level is the 40-week MA now at 10629.30 and this level identifies a cyclical bull market versus a cyclical bear market for all equities. So it is very important and needs to be watched all next week. The day will end happy at these levels unless the bears can push the NYA 7 points lower. Market volume is not impressive only at a run rate of three-fourths of a day's average volume. The SPX HOD is 1971.19. That is an odd level to peak at since it was so close to the 1973-1975 you would figure it would test this key resistance. Perhaps on Monday. The 50-day MA is 1974.77. Bulls were so close they should have at least touched the 50-day with a quickie spike.
Note Added 3:48 PM: Whoa. Late day drama. NYA collapses to 10632 handle...... bounces back to 10635 .......
Note Added 3:53 PM: NYA 10637 so the bulls want to keep the party going into the weekend.
Note Added 4:06 PM: NYA 10644 running higher in the final minutes so the bulls have a big feather in their caps going into next week and equities remain in a cyclical bull market using the NYA 40-week MA cross metric. SPX ends at 1968. Perhaps Monday morning SPX price will jump to 1975 for a bounce or die decision to begin the week.
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