Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 10/3/14; Monthly Jobs Report

The Monthly Jobs Report is minutes away at 8:30 AM EST. The consensus is for 215K jobs recovering from the 142K jobs last month. The revision to last month's number is important. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 6.1%. Average hourly wages are expected to remain flatish at +0.2%. Wages remain key since the inflation that the Fed and other central bankers are trying to create cannot exist unless wages are increasing.

At 8:30 AM, US futures remain strong. S&P +10. Dow +76. Nadaq +18. The Monthly Jobs Report is 248K jobs with an unemployment rate of 5.9%. The revision to last month’s (August) paltry 142K jobs is 180K and July is revised from 212K up to 243K. The 248K jobs are a strong recovery from the low number last month and places jobs back above the 200K threshold. Both revisions are higher adding to the joy. The 5.9% unemployment rate, a five handle, is the lowest since July 2008. The job gains are broad-based across the sectors verifying the same trend in the ADP Employment Report two days ago. The average hours worked is 34.6 up a tiny 0.1 from last month and wages are unchanged verifying that inflation in the economy is not in play.

S&P futures react wildly selling off a few handles but then immediately recovering and rocketing higher as traders view good news as good news. S&P +14. Dow +105. Nasdaq +29. The 10-year yield jumps to 2.47%. Gold collapses 13 bucks to 1201 threatening to fall through 1200 level. The US dollar is up to 86.405 and the dollar/yen explodes higher to 109.50. Banzai! A happy tone is set for the last day of trading.

Interestingly, the jobs report is the last available before the 11/4/14 mid-term elections so conveniently (for the Democratic Party) voters will be optimistic as they head to the polls in 31 days. The next jobs report is 11/7/14. President Obama would not have been out boasting about the economy yesterday if a poor jobs number was on tap. And more interestingly, if the economy is all wine and roses and everyone is boasting about 200K jobs again (a normal recovery should actually be printing between 300K and 400K jobs and higher each month) why does the Fed maintain the ZIRP Forever policy?

SPX 30-Minute Chart 8/34 MA Cross

The 8 MA is under the 34 MA signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead, however, the 8 MA is moving higher and SPX price is above pulling the 8 MA higher trying to set up the positive 8/34 cross to place the bulls in charge. Obviously, the Monthly Jobs Report number a few minutes away will set the market tone. The green lines show long and strong indicators with the last price high 90 minute ago so price will want to come back up to that 1952 level again. The 1951 level is very strong S/R. 

The 150-day MA is 1928.05. The 100-day MA is 1958.78. The 20-week MA is 1963.97. The 50-day MA is 1975.16 and will need back kissed at some point forward. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute, a critical bull-bear line in the sand, is 1980.43. Combining these levels with the horizontal S/R levels identifies key support and resistance levels at 1988, 1985-1986, 1980, 1973-1975, 1964, 1959-1961, 1951-1952, 1928 and 1924-1926. Watch the 8/34 cross since it tells you which side is winning for the hours ahead. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:07 AM: The Monthly Jobs Report was bull-friendly up 248K jobs and a 5.9% unemployment rate. S&P futures +11 so the SPX may target 1957-ish after the opening bell. That is between the 1951-1952 S/R below and 1959-1961 S/R above. So the fight begins at 1959-1961 overhead resistance and price plans to attack the important 100-day MA resistance at 1959. Remember, the market bottoms and bounces over the last couple years have occurred from the 100-day MA.

Oil COT (Commitments of Futures Traders) Weekly Chart

Crude oil has been slapped silly in recent weeks. The spread between WTIC (West Texas) and Brent oil has collapsed showing a lack of demand in the Middle East and Europe. Global demand for oil and commodities continues to leak away as China's economy slows. The red arrows on the oil COT chart show the sharp drop in oil price since the June-July top. Red circles identify oil tops and green circles identify oil bottoms. The COT lags by a week or more and the bars are printing inside the green circles identifying a bottom in oil just like the prior lows and the COT is at levels comparable to the late 2013 low at similar WTIC prices at 91-ish.

When marrying the COT chart above to the oil weekly candlestick chart, a near term bottom appears to be in place for oil and it may develop into a multi-week rally. The weekly candlestick chart is attempting to place a base and more price action at 88-91 may be in order for a couple weeks but it appears a bottom may stiffen-up in this 88-91 area as indicated by the COT bars in the green circles now. WTIC crude oil dropped to 88.18 yesterday and then reversed in a wild upside move to 91.54. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

The COT chart is annotated by Keystone. COT charts are offered by the following excellent resource;

Cot Price Charts

Silver COT (Commitments of Futures Traders) Weekly Chart

Silver has been slapped silly in recent weeks. The red arrows on the silver COT chart show the sharp drop in silver price since the July top. Red circles identify silver tops and green circles identify silver bottoms. The COT lags by a week or more so the bars can easily be printing inside the green circles identifying a bottom in silver just like in December 2013, February 2014 and June-July. When marrying the COT chart above to the silver weekly candlestick chart a jog move may develop over the next month. The weekly candlestick chart not shown displays weak and bleak indicators so as silver catches a bid and bounces in the near-term, the weekly candlestick chart likely wants to see lower numbers again. The silver price printed under the 17 psychological level at 16.85.

So combining the regular weekly stock chart and the COT above, the expectation is for silver to bounce in the near term (a few days or week or so), probably following gold's lead, but price will probably come back down. Price will likely trail lower until the COT prints bars more in tune with the prior silver lows where a bottom will be placed. So if you are a nimble trader you can perhaps make some money in the VST on the long side with silver but the more attractive entry area if you are a longer-term trader and lower risk trader is probably sub 17, say at 16.10-16.90, which should occur in the next week or three. With the COT bars in the green circles, silver would be expected to place a bottom anytime over the next month. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

The COT chart is annotated by Keystone. COT charts are offered by the following excellent resource;

COT Price Charts

Gold COT (Commitments of Futures Traders) Weekly Chart

Keystone has posted this gold COT chart a couple times over the last month or so. Red circles identify gold tops and green circles identify gold bottoms. The COT lags by a week or more so the bars can easily be printing inside the green circles identifying a bottom in gold just like in December 2013 and June of this year. When marrying the COT chart above to the gold weekly candlestick chart a jog move may develop over the next month. The weekly candlestick chart not shown displays weak and bleak indicators so as gold catches a bid and bounces in the near-term, the weekly candlestick chart likely wants to see lower numbers again. Also considering that gold price is teasing the 1200 psychological level, the expectation would be that 1200 fails, therefore the 1160-1190 area may be a better zone to bounce from.

So combining the regular weekly stock chart and the COT above, the expectation is for gold to bounce in the near term (a few days or week or so) but price will probably come back down again perhaps allowing the COT to print bars more in tune with the late 2013 lows where the sturdier bottom will be placed. So if you are a nimble trader you can make some money in the VST on the long side with gold but the more attractive entry area if you are a longer-term trader and lower risk trader is probably sub 1200, say at 1160-1190, which should occur in the next week or three. With the COT bars in the green circles, gold would be expected to place a bottom anytime over the next month. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

The COT chart is annotated by Keystone. COT charts are offered by the following excellent resource;

COT Price Charts

RIG Transocean Weekly and Daily Charts

Keystone entered RIG long at the bottom over the last two days. Interestingly, there is lots of activity and interest in the oil plays today in media as WTIC crude oil plunged to 88.13 and then rebounded above 91 in a matter of a few hours. Many oil and gas stocks continue to be slapped silly but RIG and DO feel some love today. Note the volume candlestick on the daily chart as long traders are starting to buy the bottom. After the bell this evening HP is trading up so traders are nibbling on oil plays after the dramatic reversal in oil today.

It is important to study both the daily and weekly charts since it will determine your path forward depending on your time frame and risk tolerance. As Keystone points out all the time, any ticker or index that sets up with positive divergence across all indicators on both the daily and weekly charts is about a 95% plus successful long trade. However, what do you notice for the RIG charts. Yes, the daily chart is set up perfectly with positive divergence across all indicators (green lines) but the weekly chart shows weak and bleak indicators (red lines) except for the stochastics that are oversold and positively diverged wanting to see a bounce which gels with the daily chart set up. So what does all this mumbo jumbo mean?

The near-term possie d bounce should continue for a few days but you must be nimble if long because the weekly chart will want price to come back down again to the lows. When that happens, positive divergence will likely form on the weekly chart (thin green lines in the right margin) ushering in a stronger base for RIG going forward. So if in RIG on the long side you must be nimble and not too greedy since price will likely roll over for another trip lower to please the weekly chart.

The 32.50-33.50 area is and upside target. Price has violated the lower standard deviation bands on both charts so a move back to the middle bands are in play. On the daily this is 34.52 and dropping. So an upside target for the near term may be refined to that 33-34 area. The middle band on the weekly is 39.52 and dropping so the idea would be that the 36-39 area would be on tap say as the year comes to an end. So if you are a low-risk long-term trader you can begin nibbling and building a long position moving forward. If a short term or day trader, the stock can be played now from the long side but you must stay agile.

So the projection is up for RIG over the coming days but then price should roll back over to the downside to print at the lows and develop a firm base moving forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 10/2/14; ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference; Hong Kong Deadline

The markets are moving too fast these days to provide daily commentary and context but after yesterday's drubbing a pause for reflection is prudent. Over the last week and more, the Dow is moving triple digits daily and whipsawing violently. The VIX is elevated at 16.71; when it hits 20 at some point forward the point swings will become even more violent. As mentioned going into last week, the stock market is down 80% of the time the week after September OpEx and that played out in spades (mark this seasonality factor down on your 2015 calendar).

Markets are also weak through the new moon which was last Tuesday, 9/23/14, which played out. The Rosh Hashanah holiday began Thursday, 9/25/14, and the ole Wall Street adage is to "Sell Rosh Hashanah and buy Yom Kippur." Interestingly enough, markets sold off on Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kipur is this Saturday, 10/4/14. So perhaps a relief rally will manifest either today, tomorrow or on Monday. New money typically creates market lift at the start of a new month and if the beginning day or three are down a large up day usually occurs. So if market weakness continues into the weekend placing some long bets before the Friday close would be prudent.

The EOM and EOQ3 occurs on Tuesday, 9/30/14, and the RUT prints a down quarter continuing to roll over. The SPX monthly chart posted this morning is now fully negatively diverged with overbot conditions and a rising wedge pattern all indicating that a multi-year top is likely in place going forward. A month ago, Keystone pointed out the flattening of the 150-day MA slope on the RUT small caps which ushers in a cyclical bear market pattern--as long as the slope remains downward. The Russell 2000 also printed the death cross (50-day MA stabbing down through the 200-day MA) which ushers in longer term weakness. And yesterday the RUT prints under 1093 which is a -10% move off the early July top signaling that the Russell 2000 is officially in Correction Territory. The bears could not take out the May low in the RUT yesterday which is a feather in the bull's cap and may indicate that the bulls still have some life remaining.

Concerning the 150-day MA slopes pay attention to the Nasdaq and SPX. The SPX 150-day MA continues sloping positively keeping the cyclical bull in play and this is the key that tells you if a longer term cyclical bear market is locked into place for the entire stock market when it flattens and rolls over to the downside. In the near term, watch the COMPQ (Nasdaq) since the 150-day MA is flattening and on the verge of potentially turning down which would agree with the RUT small caps that are rolling over into a cyclical bear market. The 150-day MA prints for the last three days for the Nadsaq are 4329.73, 4331.08 and 4331.76. If bearish the markets, you want the COMPQ 150-day MA to roll over and preferably print under the 4331.76 today or at least roll over in the days ahead. If bullish the markets, you want to jam the Nasdaq price higher which will send the 150-day MA higher and indicate some rally upside fun ahead.

The 100-day MA has served as sturdy support for the major indexes over the last couple years. The SPX 100-day MA is 1958.29 and price is at 1946.16. The 1958 carries a lot of clout today so watch it closely. The Dow 100-day MA is 16879 and price is at 16805. The Nasdaq 100-day MA is 4405 and price is at 4422.

Keybot the Quant remains short the market. The algorithm number is printing well below the signal line number after the stock market collapse yesterday keeping the bears firmly in the driver's seat. Watch RTH 61.90 today as an important market directional signal. RTH 61.77 begins at in the bear camp causing negativity so the bulls need to push above this level which will signal the all-clear and allow markets to float higher and take a breather from the selling. If RTH remains under 61.90, markets will continue lower.

The UTIL 566.46 level remains key for the Keybot algorithm this week so continue watching this level. Utilities were the only bright spot yesterday with UTIL at 554. The XLF 23.07 and NYA 10630 bull-bear lines in the sand identified by the algorithm are key for market direction forward so monitor financials and the NYA index very closely today and in the coming days (further discussion continues on the NYA below).

Keystone highlighted the BPSPX chart over the last couple weeks. (type 'BPSPX' in the search box at the right to bring up that chart.) The BPSPX lost the 70 level signaling a double whammy market sell signal. Market bulls got nothing unless they can send the BPSPX back above 70. One of Keystone's most important cyclical market signals, the NYA 40-week cross, occurred yesterday with a negative cross ending the two-year cyclical bull market for stocks and ushering in a cyclical bear market (reference this morning's chart). Watch the NYA 10630 level since it will verify, or not, that a relief rally to the upside has legs. NYA is at 10572 so as long as price remains under 10630, market bears are fine and the selling in equities will continue. If the NYA regains 10630 and moves higher the fix is in and the bulls are staging a strong comeback rally to the upside.

Traders remain somewhat complacent but the CPC put/call ratio finally spiked higher on yesterday's worry up to 1.30-ish where the last market bottom occurred in early August. Thus, the CPC is open to seeing a market bounce occur. The CPCE put/call, however, is at 0.78 well below the 1.05 that identified the early August bottom. So the markets may need a little more fear and panic to show up before a near-term market bottom occurs. The VIX tagged the 200-week MA at 17.48 yesterday which created all the market bottoms over the last couple years so this hints that a near-term market bottom may occur today or tomorrow. The TRIN (Arms Index) is at 1.75 and hit 2.01 yesterday which is a touch above steady-eddy selling and starting to enter the panic selling area (where a reversal occurs). The TRIN has printed elevated numbers at near 2 or higher for 4 of the last 5 days so this hints that a near-term market bottom may be near.

The indicators for the SPX daily chart are weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows in price after any bounce occurs. The full moon is next Wednesday and if the new month buying occurs, a relief rally occurs, and the full moon buoyancy occurs, early to mid next week may shape up as a relief rally period, but then price should roll over and print more lows going forward. In the near-term for this week, the SPX hourly and minute charts are setting up with positive divergence hinting at a recovery move coming today or tomorrow.

Going forward, you will hear lots of talk about the Presidential cycle and how the October 2014 period to October 2015 period should be a solid upward move for the stock market. Take that talk with a grain of salt. The central bankers control the stock market in recent years and the presidential cycle in the past was more in concert with politicians goosing the markets with spending. The political and economic atmosphere is erratic these days so the October to October buoyancy expected may disappoint.

On the esoteric side, Keystone mentioned that his Eclipse Indicator was identifying the late September first week of October window as a period susceptible to a strong sell off, which occurs. It is amazing how such a metaphysical indicator can be so noteworthy and accurate but it is. Perhaps in the decades ahead humans will unlock the secrets of why the universe's gravitational pull and the full moon and new moon effects impact the human psyche. A Bradley turn occurs on Tuesday, 10/7/14, so a window from now through 10/14 is open for a trend change in the stock market or acceleration in one direction or the other (an inflection point). Bradley turns do not predict direction only that some type of market inflection point is at hand. Another Bradley turn occurs on Thursday, 10/16/14, so the stock market may be in store for a wild roller coaster ride during October with two potential trend changes to occur over the next three weeks. If volatility continues higher we can see a lot of down-up-down-up occurring.

Keystone has been preaching about disinflation and deflation for the last couple years and it has been lonely in this camp. Others are starting to join his outlook. Obviously the Fed's obscene money printing scheme will end and then create wild inflation and hyper inflation in the years ahead but in trading timing is always the question. Investors have been claiming inflation is at hand since late 2009 but it remains on a milk carton. As traders wait for Godot to bring inflation, the disinflation and deflation bites harder. Europe is mired in deflation a la Japan's lost two decades. The dropping commodities are a clear indicator of deflation. The global and US economy is likely not as strong as thought and if layoffs begin again and business closures increase the US will remain in a deflationary funk for the next year or two.

The much-awaited inflation may not occur until the 18-year stock cycle ends in 2018 give or take a year or two. Deflation may want to extract its pound of flesh which the Fed has delayed for the last six years with the money printing. Computers and technology are huge deflationary forces. Robots do the work of several employees and they do not have to take lunch breaks. The middle class and poor continue to suffer through structural unemployment and feel the affects of a sick economy while the high-paid professionals in the ivory towers proclaim blue skies ahead cheering the Fed that creates great wealth for anyone that owns stocks. The Fed says to H*ll with everyone else, as Marie Antoinette said, "let them eat cake"; these folks are the stupid huddled masses that do not know better anyway. Are you one of the elite or are you one of the commoners?

While everyone says inflation is guaranteed and the question is only whether the Fed raises rates in June 2015, or sooner, no one considers the fact that deflation will bite harder and the Fed may have to announce an obscene QE 4. That would take the money printing travesty to a whole new level of perversion that would make Caligula blush. The Fed will likely lose all credibility if they move towards QE 4. Obviously, everyone would finally realize the grand Fed experiment over the last six years is a failure.

The ECB Rate Decision announcement occurs at 7:45 AM EST (12:45 PM local London time). President Draghi's press conference begins at 8:30 AM EST (1:30 PM local London time). Also at 8:30 AM, US Jobless Claims are released. Factory Orders are released at 10 AM where markets may pivot. At lunch time, Fed members Dudley and Lockhart will provide spin.

The deadline by Hong Kong demonstrators for the city leader Leung to step down is at hand. The protestors threaten to occupy government buildings if Leung does not resign and he appears to be going no where. The police presence increases in front of government buildings as mainland China says the "protestors are dragging the city into chaos." These words by the communist leaders in Beijing are chilling since they hint that another Tienanmen Square may occur.

US futures are flat overnight and turn positive over the last hour. S&P +3. Keystone entered several knife catches yesterday. All trades are speculative and require due diligence. Keystone added to an ongoing long term holding in penny stock MGPHF, the graphite chip play that is mentioned now and then by investor Jimmy Rogers. Keystone bought the bludgeoned RIG opening a new long position as the daily chart is positively diverging. Even stocks like DO and RIG should receive a dead-cat bounce. Keystone also bot JJG, the grain ETF, opening a new long position which is set up with attractive positive divergence. Keystone also bot ATRS opening a new long position.

Note Added 7:51 AM: ECB leaves rates unchanged as expected. S&P +3. Dow +4. Nasdaq +4. The 10-year yield is 2.41%. Metals are lower. WTIC crude oil collapsed under 90 this morning and is now down near 89. Draghi scrapes the powdered sugar from his necktie as he drinks orange juice and inhales several donuts at the free buffet. Global markets await the ECB president's words only about one-half hour away.

Note Added 8:52 AM: Draghi's words sound like more of the same with no mention yet on the amount of QE Light he wants to provide moving forward. S&P +1. Dow -23. Nasdaq +1. 10-year yield 2.41%.

Note Added 9:07 AM: S&P -3. Dow -37. Nasdaq -3. 10-year 2.41%. Dollar/yen 108.58. Euro 1.2676. Pound 1.6158. The euro was 1.2631 about five hours ago and is now up to 1.2676. Draghi better stop talking since his words are having the wrong effect. Draghi needs to talk down the euro so the European manufacturers and exporters can pull the continent out of the recessionary and depressionary funk.

Note Added 9:20 AM: S&P -5. Dow -60. Nasdaq -5. 

SPX Monthly Chart Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence; Multi-Year Top In Play

Wonders never cease. After all these many months of Keystone highlighting the monthly chart waiting for the proper top to print, we have arrived. If you recall over the last few months the MACD line continued higher and would not yet negatively diverge (red lines) like the other indicators so price continued to want to print new highs until the MACD line rolled over. Well, the MACD is rolling over. The indicators are negatively diverged across the board as price printed the all-time intraday high at 2019.26 on 9/19/14 and all-time closing high at 2011.36 on 9/18/14 during September. The money flow is flat but with the higher price this qualifies as negative divergence although if the bear's nitpick the preference would be for the money flow to be a tiny hair under the August high rather than flat with the August high. But there is no need to quibble; the chart is cooked. The negative divergence is not only in place for this year's price action but also compared to the 2007 market top. The chart indicates that a multi-year top is in place.

Price may come back up to 2000 again for a look but the neggie d says that price should have no desire to print new highs again gong forward and the long awaited smack down is at hand. The RSI is coming off the ovebot level at 70. The MACD line is rolling over and watch for the negative cross (purple circle). The collapses from rising wedge patterns can be quite dramatic. Watch the 10-month MA at 1913 and 12-month MA at 1899 as key lines in the sand. A drop below the 10-month MA will usher in significant and long-term market weakness. The 12-month MA is one of Keystone's key cyclical market signals, the cliff, and guarantees lower markets for the months perhaps years ahead.

The brown circles show the distribution occurring this year in January, July and September. The large selling volume candlesticks after the lower volume up months are the smart money passing off shares to the retail investor bag holders. Every market top needs suckers and the constant bullish pumping on television and through other media by the long players, that have raped the market upside with the help of the Fed, leads to dumping. Pump and dump. The central banks are the market and would be the only savior since the chart above is cooked and topped out. Watch your wallet and pay attention to the 10-month MA; that is what the old-timer's watch. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart 40-Week MA Cross Failure Ushers in Cyclical Bear Market

As the Apollo astronauts said decades ago, "Houston, we have a problem." The NYA fell through the 40-week MA ending the cyclical bull market and ushering in a cyclical bear market. The last time that the NYA was below the 40-week MA was during the 2012 economic and market malaise and the breach of the 40-week MA in late July early August 2011 ushered in the waterfall market crash.

The NYA 40-week MA cross is a key Keystone cyclical market signal as many of you long time readers will remember. The last significant drama was late 2012 when the 40-week MA failure occurred but the cross turned positive to begin 2013 and sure enough the historic upside rally occurs over the last nearly two years. There's a tease in late June 2013, then another at the start of this year, only for the NYA to bounce off the 40-week MA and recover as central bankers continue to pump markets higher with easy money. The stock market is not permitted to correct by the central bankers.

Note the double top, or M Top, pattern for the chart. The rising wedge patterns are ominous since the collapses can be quite dramatic. Price fell out of the red rising wedge, then came up for a back test of the lower trend line of the wedge, and failed, collapsing to and through the 40-week MA at 10628; very bearish price action. The red lines show the negative divergence that predicted the spank downs off the two peaks. The indicators remain weak and bleak so lower prices would be expected after any bounce occurs in this weekly time frame. Of course, if ECB President Draghi fires a money bazooka this morning at the monthly meeting or if the Fed or other central bankers promise more money-printing, the NYA will recover. The markets have been controlled by the central banks ever since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. The chart indicates that an end game may be at hand exposing the obscenity.

Watch the 40-week MA at 10630-ish going forward as a major market directional signal. The bears are going to create mayhem in markets if price stays under the 40-week MA and the selling pressure may continue for weeks, months even a year or two. If you are bullish and buy into the near universal consensus that the current market sell off is a buying opportunity for higher markets ahead, use the 40-week MA as your guide. If the NYA recovers back above the 40-week, you can rejoice if bullish since markets will recover, and the fix will be in. If the NYA stays under the 40-week MA, and you are a bull, you are going to get slaughtered. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart Correction Territory -10%

The RUT small caps hit correction territory today down -10% from the top. The top is 1214 (1213.99) so a 121-point tumble (-10%) is 1093. Price is now under 1090. Note the death cross (black circle) from two weeks ago. The indicators remain weak and bleak but stochastics are oversold in the cellar needing to create a bounce in price in the near-term. The ADX is in a strong trend and getting stronger (pink box) showing that continued sustainable downside would be expected. Note the prior strong trends lower quickly petered out but now the moving averages have rolled over giving bears some additional juice. 

The prior low support in May is at 1082.53. Watch it closely since ugliness will blossom if the prior low support fails. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:06 PM: The RUT is at 1084.94 with a LOD at 1084.66. The May support holds, for now.

Note Added 3:18 PM: The RUT prints a LOD at 1083.14 only pennies from the May support but the bulls hold support.........

Note Added 3:41 PM: The RUT prints a LOD at 1083.00 only pennies from the May support but the bulls hold support and equities recover into the closing bell. RUT is at 1086.27 and climbing. The bulls, although beaten badly today, raise their hands in victory since they held the May support.