Tomorrow now starts a negotiation to form a new coalition government for Greece. This buys Greece further time to handle the ongoing crisis. Papandreou will exit once the new government is in place. He is willing to step down, which should occur in 24 or 48 hours, in exchange for receiving the vote of confidence. The vote represesents a step back from the brink but the situation remains clouded. Greece will run out of money in December, some analysts are using 12/19/11 as a drop dead date, if not sooner.
Greece needs to vote on the austerity package presented by the European leaders but the austerity package requires further details. Greece will need to vote on the package once the new government takes shape. The worry is that time will work against Greece. They must move thru this political turmoil as quickly as possible in the coming days to resolve the situation before they run out of money. View tonight's vote as only the first step in a continuing soap opera. Italy and Spain remain the large worries due to contagion.
Friday, November 4, 2011
SPX S/R Week of 11-7-11
SPX support and resistance shows price dancing above and below the starting year number at 1258. All this trading and turmoil all year long and the SPX is where it started 10 months ago.
Friday's close was toward the center of the daily range. Traders are watching the Greece confidence vote Friday evening and will follow the news flow out of Europe all weekend long. If the market bulls can touch 1261 on Monday, the large block buyers will enter the markets in force driving the indexes much higher. If the market bears come to play, and push the SPX under 1239, the large block sellers will enter the markets and the indexes will drop several more handles in short order. A move thru 1240-1260 represents sideways action.
· 1295
· 1293
· 1292
· 1291
· 1289
· 1287
· 1286
· 1285
· 1282
· 1280
· 1278
· 1277
· 1272-1273 (LT S/R)
· 1270
· 1268
· 1267
· 1263
· 1261
· Friday HOD 1260.82
· 1259
· 1258 (1257.64 is the starting number for 2011)
· 1257 (3/16/11)
· 1254
· Friday Close 1253.23
· 1252 (9/14/08 pre-LEH bk)
· 1249 (LOD 3/16/11; failure at this level 8/4/11)
· 1247
· 1244
· 1242
· Friday LOD 1238.92
· 1238
· 1235 (12/15/10; also HOD 12/7/10 large volume)
· 1233 (LOD 12/16/10)
· 1229
· 1227 (HOD 11/9/10)
· 1225
· 1224 (12/7/10 large volume)
· 1220 (HOD 4/26/10)
· 1219
· 1217 (4/23/10)
· 1215
· 1210
· 1209 (HOD 4/29/10)
· 1207 (4/29/10 Top)
· 1206
· 1204
· 1201
Keystone's Weekly Summary and the Path Ahead
On 10/28/11, Friday, China is open to providing 100 billion euro’s to support the expansion of the EFSF. China talks a lot but has yet to place any substantial dough on the table. Italy 10-year bonds moving up towards 6% so the party from yesterday is over. Fitch rating agency says the 50% Greek bond haircut would be a default event. The markets move in a tighter range, now that volatility has dropped significantly over the last day, and close flat. The markets close up for another week, the major indexes are above their starting year numbers and positive for the year now. Bullish euphoria is ruling the day, copper is up over 20% in the last six days, an epic run, and the markets are set to break records for the upside move for the month of October. All this euphoria is built on the euro debt crisis resolution, but, stepping back, there are no details for the plan as yet, and the final-final deadline is next week with the G20 Summit “Kick the Cannes” meeting Thursday, 11/3/11.
----------------------------------------------------------------
On 10/31/11, Monday, Halloween, EOM, futures are weak as traders await an announcement of a potential bankruptcy of John Corzine’s MF Global. Markets sell off after the opening bell and languish as weak manufacturing data is released. At about 2 PM EST, Prime Minister Papandreou said a referendum will occur concerning the Greek bailout and also a vote of confidence is requested for next week. The markets sold off immediately, tumbling into the close, since the political risk of the European debt problem has now escalated greatly. The SPX lost 32 points, or 2.5%. The Dow Industrials lost 276 points, or 2.3%. MF Global is halted from trading all day long and at the closing bell MF Global declares bankruptcy.
On 11/1/11, Tuesday, China PMI is lowest in nearly three years. South Korea also warns of lower growth. Credit Suisse plans on cutting 1500 additional jobs continuing to scale-back the investment banking business. Futures are down 25 S&P points and almost 200 Dow points. The dollar index $USD moves up to 78. Italy bond yields are climbing showing that there is no faith in the Europe debt plan. The Greece referendum news is causing broad market weakness. Around 1 PM EST, European leaders announce that the Greece referendum may be off the table. Markets jump higher but remain down for the day, then, late in the session, news hits that the Greece referendum is back on the table. Traders are reacting to every news bite and it is obvious that Europe is in disarray. The SPX finishes down 28 points, or 2.2%. The Dow Industrials finish down 236 points, or 2.0%. After the close, BAC scraps its plan for the new $5 monthly debit card fee since outraged customers are exiting the bank. Banks were sold hard today; MS and C down 8%.
On 11/1/11, Keybot the Quant algorithm flips back to the short side at 9:30 AM at SPX 1233. The trade from 10/24/11 is flat.
On 11/2/11, Wednesday, futures are buoyant over a rumor that China will inject billions into the EFSF, and also on the anticipation that Chairman Bernanke will discuss new quantitative easing measures today. Bernanke cuts the GDP outlook from over 3% to under 3% moving forward but talks up the positive side as well.
On 11/2/11, in the evening, a few hundred Occupy Wall Street protestors braved the rain to assemble outside a hotel, blocking the entrance, where Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPM, was speaking. Interestingly, Mr. Dimon expressed sympathy and support for the protestors.
On 11/3/11, Thursday, thousands of Occupy Wall Street protestors in Oakland, California, start a large bonfire in the middle of a downtown street. This action forces the closure of one of the U.S’s busiest ports. The ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points during Draghi’s first meeting taking over the head spot from Trichet. European growth projections are worsening with a recession on the table necessitating the start of rate cuts. The G-20 meeting begins but takes a back seat to the Greece turmoil. News hits that the Greece referendum will be cancelled so the equities markets run to the upside into the close. The SPX closes up 23 points, or 1.8%. The Dow Industrials close up 208 points, or 1.8%.
On 11/4/11, Friday, the Jobs Report is weak as expected although the previous month revisions are much better. Manufacturing and construction jobs are weak. Markets sell off at the open. Italy 10-year yields spike north of 6.35% indicating trouble for Europe and igniting fears of contagion. Markets recover from early losses in the session but the major averages finish off about one-half percent. Traders are waiting on the Greek vote this evening. A no confidence vote would place the bailout in jeopardy and hurt equities markets next week. Italy and Spain are the major contagion worries.
On 11/4/11, the Greek vote is scheduled for midnight Greece time (6 PM EST). Greece will run out of money sometime in December, or sooner, so Greece needs to move quickly. The Fed’s Tarullo says measures are needed to reduce the risks of runs on financial institutions such as 2007 and 2008.
---------------------------------------------------------------
On 11/7/11, Monday, …………………..
………………………the saga continues…………..
Looking ahead to next week,
Eurozone problems continue led by the Greece circus. Italy and Spain are the big worries. Global recovery is stalling. China bubble popping. Copper and commodities languish despite the October rallies. Semiconductors, retail, utilities and financials are the main pillars of bullish support for the markets currently. Copper price remains subdued and volatility remains elevated which encourages market bears.
Earnings continue, retail will be in focus.
Fed talk in full force next week every day Monday thru Friday with Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday, 11/9/11.
On 11/7/11, Consumer Credit sheds light on retail spending.
On 11/9/11, 10-Year Note Auction. Chairman Bernanke speaks.
On 11/10/11, International Trade. Jobless Claims. 30-Year Bond Auction
On 11/11/11, Veterans Day, bond market closed but stocks will trade.
On 11/13/11, Troika decision, although these schedules change like the weather.
On 11/23/11, the Deficit Commission deadline.
On 12/8/11, ECB rate decision and conference.
On 12/13/11, FOMC rate decision meeting.
On 12/23/11, Congress will conduct the debt vote. Merry Christmas.
Fed's November Operation Twist Schedule
In keeping with a balanced approach, the Fed plans on purchasing approximately $45 billion and selling approximately $43 billion in Treasury securities this month. Compared to October's operations, $1 billion less in purchases will occur and $1 billion more in sales, but overall, the amounts are the same at about $43 to $46 billion per month. November's operations will take the program about $88 billion towards the planned target of $400 billion. At about $45 billion per month, that projects a duration of 9 months, October 2011 thru June 2012, for the program although the Fed has not placed any time limit on Operation Twist. QE2 ended in June 2011.
The POMO Pump link in the right margin takes you to the current Operation Twist schedule. Effects on the markets typically occur between 10 AM and 11:30 AM on the days listed in the schedule. The new schedule for December will be released on Wednesday, 11/30/11 at 2 PM EST.
On 10/1/11 as Operation Twist kicked off, the 10-year yield was 1.92%. The 30-year was 2.92%. Current prints at this writing show the 10-year at 2.03% and the 30-year at 3.08%, down sharply on the week from a peak of about 2.40% for the 10-year and about 3.45% for the 30-year six days ago. Note that the 10-year has moved up 11 basis points and the 30-year has moved up 16 basis points during the first month of Operation Twist.
Tracking the operations over the last month to note any correlations to the equities markets, the SPX has closed up 9 days and down 5 down days during the purchase days. Thus, on purchase days the markets are typically bullish 65% of the time and bearish 35% of the time, so the bulls are favored during purchase days. For sales days, the SPX has closed up 5 days and down 2 days. Thus, on sales days the markets are typically bullish 71% of the time and bearish 29% of the time, so the bulls are favored during the sales days. After November plays out, we can get a better handle on things to see if any correlation is worth considering as far as trading goes. For now, hte jury is out. The interesting aspect is that the sales days show that the equities markets are bullish so the 11/9, 11/16, 11/21 and 11/30 days are worth watching. The POMO pumps were much more reliable during QE2 when equities markets would rise like clockwork between 10:00 AM and 11:30 AM each day the Fed carried out operations.
The POMO Pump link in the right margin takes you to the current Operation Twist schedule. Effects on the markets typically occur between 10 AM and 11:30 AM on the days listed in the schedule. The new schedule for December will be released on Wednesday, 11/30/11 at 2 PM EST.
On 10/1/11 as Operation Twist kicked off, the 10-year yield was 1.92%. The 30-year was 2.92%. Current prints at this writing show the 10-year at 2.03% and the 30-year at 3.08%, down sharply on the week from a peak of about 2.40% for the 10-year and about 3.45% for the 30-year six days ago. Note that the 10-year has moved up 11 basis points and the 30-year has moved up 16 basis points during the first month of Operation Twist.
Tracking the operations over the last month to note any correlations to the equities markets, the SPX has closed up 9 days and down 5 down days during the purchase days. Thus, on purchase days the markets are typically bullish 65% of the time and bearish 35% of the time, so the bulls are favored during purchase days. For sales days, the SPX has closed up 5 days and down 2 days. Thus, on sales days the markets are typically bullish 71% of the time and bearish 29% of the time, so the bulls are favored during the sales days. After November plays out, we can get a better handle on things to see if any correlation is worth considering as far as trading goes. For now, hte jury is out. The interesting aspect is that the sales days show that the equities markets are bullish so the 11/9, 11/16, 11/21 and 11/30 days are worth watching. The POMO pumps were much more reliable during QE2 when equities markets would rise like clockwork between 10:00 AM and 11:30 AM each day the Fed carried out operations.
Keystone's Midday Market Action 11-4-11
The jobs circus passed thru town about an hour ago, numbers in line, revisions were upbeat, but manufacturing and construction jobs are weak, so that is nothing to be happy about. Italy 10-year yields now spiking north to 6.35%, that is not good for the Europe situation. Retailers are downgraded today so that may help start the RTH spank down. The Nasdaq is down 0.55% while the S&P is down 0.69%, thus, since the Nasdaq leads, the downside is limited today. Watch to see if the Nasdaq accelerates to the down side, or not.
For today, watch four key sectors, copper, volatilty, financials and retail, represented by JJC, VIX, XLF and RTH, respectively. If JJC stays below 46.75 and VIX above 30, the market bears are happy. If XLF stays above 12.95 and RTH above 107.70, the market bulls are happy. Simply watch to see which side blinks first which will be reflected in one of these four parameters.
If the day motors along with none of the four items changing their posture, the market action will be sideways into the weekend. Today, SPX 1263 is a magic number for bulls and 1235 is the magic number for the bears. Increased buying, or selling, respectively, will occur if these levels are hit. A move thru 1236-1262 is sideways action as thoughts of weekend fun take over.
Note Added 11/4/11 at 3:42 PM: Utes, semi's, retail and financials remain bull-friendly. RTH remains above 107.70, and XLF remains above 12.95 so the market bears did not have the juice today. Conversely, the market bulls have nothing to be excited about, a down day currently, and copper price remains weak, JJC well under 46.75 and the VIX remains elevated over 30. Thus, we see a stalemate day. Also, the Nasdaq percentage has been down less than the S&P all day long so far so that muted the down side action. SPX moved thru 1239-1261 today, thus, the bulls had no oomph to touch 1263 to ignite the upside, and the bears did not have enough energy to push the SPX under 1236, hence, sideways action today. Perhaps the Greek vote this evening will break the sideways log jam and set up trading for next week.
Note Added 11/4/11 at 4:15 PM after the close: The VIX came down to 30.16 but still remains above 30 favoring market bears. BAC tumbled 6% today but the other banks and financials hung in there only losing a percent or two, thus, the effect on the XLF was minimal keeping the market bulls happy on a down day.
For today, watch four key sectors, copper, volatilty, financials and retail, represented by JJC, VIX, XLF and RTH, respectively. If JJC stays below 46.75 and VIX above 30, the market bears are happy. If XLF stays above 12.95 and RTH above 107.70, the market bulls are happy. Simply watch to see which side blinks first which will be reflected in one of these four parameters.
If the day motors along with none of the four items changing their posture, the market action will be sideways into the weekend. Today, SPX 1263 is a magic number for bulls and 1235 is the magic number for the bears. Increased buying, or selling, respectively, will occur if these levels are hit. A move thru 1236-1262 is sideways action as thoughts of weekend fun take over.
Note Added 11/4/11 at 3:42 PM: Utes, semi's, retail and financials remain bull-friendly. RTH remains above 107.70, and XLF remains above 12.95 so the market bears did not have the juice today. Conversely, the market bulls have nothing to be excited about, a down day currently, and copper price remains weak, JJC well under 46.75 and the VIX remains elevated over 30. Thus, we see a stalemate day. Also, the Nasdaq percentage has been down less than the S&P all day long so far so that muted the down side action. SPX moved thru 1239-1261 today, thus, the bulls had no oomph to touch 1263 to ignite the upside, and the bears did not have enough energy to push the SPX under 1236, hence, sideways action today. Perhaps the Greek vote this evening will break the sideways log jam and set up trading for next week.
Note Added 11/4/11 at 4:15 PM after the close: The VIX came down to 30.16 but still remains above 30 favoring market bears. BAC tumbled 6% today but the other banks and financials hung in there only losing a percent or two, thus, the effect on the XLF was minimal keeping the market bulls happy on a down day.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Keystone's Evening Nightcap 11-3-11
Large up day today but Keystone's proprietary algo remains short. In the early going today, the Nasdaq was lagging the S&P but as the day progressed the Nasdaq ran upwards stronger than the S&P bolstering the rally. Copper price, however, remained relatively subdued, moving up into the close but remaining in the bear camp as perceived by Keystone's algo. VIX remains above 30 as well so the rally is suspect and may simply amount to a 'Greece referendum-cancellation party'. The Jobs Report in the morning will affect the futures and provide an intial indication if today's move has legs, or, if it was a flash in the pan. Watch JJC and VIX.
The indexes have enjoyed a two-day pop, the NYA moving up both days for a higher high but the NYAD printed lower at +1700 compared to a +2400 high on Wednesday, showing that the participation for the move was subdued. The TRIN has posted two days in a row of uber bullish numbers of 0.6-ish, thus, the TRIN would like to see the market sell off again to send the TRIN back up to the top side of one.
Market bulls will be off to the races tomorrow if they can move the SPX two points higher, up and over 1263. The bulls need either JJC to move over 46.75 or the VIX to drop under 30 to confirm the bull rally, the bulls did not accomplish this task today so the rally is suspect. Markets remain at the mercy of Europe news. We will find out if the rally is real, or not, after tomorrow's open.
The Groupon IPO is on deck for tomorrow and priced at $20, $2 higher than expected; number 2's are appropriate considering this stock may change its name to Pooped-on in the near future. Traders continue mf'ing M F Global, now we know what the intials stood for all this time. Lots of interesting individual stock and sector stories are out there. QCOM launched 8% today based on great earnings and guidance concerning their support for Apple products, but AAPL remains negative on the week, now dealing with an iPhone 4S battery problem. Continue to watch RTH set up as a potential short as described in this mornings charts. Strike up the caliope, the jobs circus is back in town tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST. We see what the market bulls got after the opening bell tomorrow and if Keystone's algorithm wants to flip to the long side or stay short.
The indexes have enjoyed a two-day pop, the NYA moving up both days for a higher high but the NYAD printed lower at +1700 compared to a +2400 high on Wednesday, showing that the participation for the move was subdued. The TRIN has posted two days in a row of uber bullish numbers of 0.6-ish, thus, the TRIN would like to see the market sell off again to send the TRIN back up to the top side of one.
Market bulls will be off to the races tomorrow if they can move the SPX two points higher, up and over 1263. The bulls need either JJC to move over 46.75 or the VIX to drop under 30 to confirm the bull rally, the bulls did not accomplish this task today so the rally is suspect. Markets remain at the mercy of Europe news. We will find out if the rally is real, or not, after tomorrow's open.
The Groupon IPO is on deck for tomorrow and priced at $20, $2 higher than expected; number 2's are appropriate considering this stock may change its name to Pooped-on in the near future. Traders continue mf'ing M F Global, now we know what the intials stood for all this time. Lots of interesting individual stock and sector stories are out there. QCOM launched 8% today based on great earnings and guidance concerning their support for Apple products, but AAPL remains negative on the week, now dealing with an iPhone 4S battery problem. Continue to watch RTH set up as a potential short as described in this mornings charts. Strike up the caliope, the jobs circus is back in town tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST. We see what the market bulls got after the opening bell tomorrow and if Keystone's algorithm wants to flip to the long side or stay short.
Keystone's Midday Market Action 11-3-11
If you are following this morning's guidelines, there is no change in the sectors despite the bullish start. Utes, semi's, retail and financials all remain above their critical levels. Note the weakness in retail despite the move up in the broad markets. RTH now printing 109.06 only a point and a half from turning bearish, as perceived by Keystone's proprietary algo, which will drag the broad markets lower.
Copper price, JJC, is also losing ground, this is why the broad markets could not sustain the up move out of the gate, at least so far. The VIX also remains above 30 which keeps the market bulls in check. The Nasdaq is negative, obviously not as happy as the S&P, thus, since the Nas is the leader, this will also mute the upside.
The SPX touched the 1242.50 level so it took off like a rocket up to print a HOD of 1250.74 thus far, but for the reasons above, the happiness was short-lived. SPX now negative as well as this update is written. To gauge the bearish down action now occurring, watch RTH 107.30 and XLF 12.95 closely. RTH now printing 108.74 and XLF now printing 13.04. If either fail the level shown, the broad market selling will increase substantially. Should this occur, watch the critical SPX 1220 support.
Note Added 11/3/11 at 10:30 AM: Broad markets are maintaining a sideways posture currently since the bulls cannot move copper price higher or move volatility lower, and, the bears cannot move utes, semi's, retail or financials lower. Watch these six key sectors today since any change to any one sector will determine broad market direction; focus on the RTH, XLF and JJC levels previously discussed, these three tell you everything you need to know today.
Copper price, JJC, is also losing ground, this is why the broad markets could not sustain the up move out of the gate, at least so far. The VIX also remains above 30 which keeps the market bulls in check. The Nasdaq is negative, obviously not as happy as the S&P, thus, since the Nas is the leader, this will also mute the upside.
The SPX touched the 1242.50 level so it took off like a rocket up to print a HOD of 1250.74 thus far, but for the reasons above, the happiness was short-lived. SPX now negative as well as this update is written. To gauge the bearish down action now occurring, watch RTH 107.30 and XLF 12.95 closely. RTH now printing 108.74 and XLF now printing 13.04. If either fail the level shown, the broad market selling will increase substantially. Should this occur, watch the critical SPX 1220 support.
Note Added 11/3/11 at 10:30 AM: Broad markets are maintaining a sideways posture currently since the bulls cannot move copper price higher or move volatility lower, and, the bears cannot move utes, semi's, retail or financials lower. Watch these six key sectors today since any change to any one sector will determine broad market direction; focus on the RTH, XLF and JJC levels previously discussed, these three tell you everything you need to know today.
RTH Retail Daily Chart Negative Divergence
Money flow and stochastics are below 50% which favors bears; watch to see if the RSI loses the 50% level which will be a sign of trouble for the retail sector. Projection is for some price buoyancy in the near term to satisfy the MACD line (green lines) and create an M Top. The forecast forward is lower prices targeting the 94-99 area. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
RTH Retail Weekly Chart M Top H&S Gaps
The H&S pattern shows a neckline at 97.5 so the target area, should the neckline fail, is 82-83, also sturdy support and a gap fill at this area creating a confluence and providing the target some street cred. Watch to see if the RSI loses the 50% level as time ticks by. Projection is to enter short during a final stab upwards that will create an M Top. Lower prices are projected for the weeks and months ahead, which would also weaken the broad markets. The holiday sales reports will obviously impact the retail sector greatly. In addition to shorting RTH or other retail tickers, ETF's such as SZK and SCC are of interest on the long side although caution is warranted as these are thinly traded. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here or any links connected to this information. Consult your finanical advisor before making any investment decision.
Keystone's Morning Wake Up 11-3-11
The ECB rate decision occurs in about a half hour. This is Draghi's virgin appearance, taking over the top spot from Trichet. Rate cuts are needed for a European economy on the skids but the politics may prevent Draghi from acting. A rate cut by the 12/8/11 meeting is a given. The ECB decision and Jobless Claims data will affect futures, and the trading day today and tomorrow will be dictated by the ongoing Greek tragedy, the "Kick the Cannes" G20 summit and the Jobs Report.
The markets recovered to the upside as projected from the NYAD, CPC, TRIN and other short term indicators highlighted in yesterday's morning missive. Today the broad market direction can be gauged by the behavior of six key sectors, four that provided the recent bull rally with its thrust and remain in the bull camp, and two in the bear camp. The bull-friendly sectors are utilities, semiconductors, retail and financials while the bear-friendly sectors are copper and volatility.
Keystone's algorithm is currently scanning the following levels, representing the above sectors, which will determine today's broad market direction; UTIL 439.23, SOX 371.70, RTH 107.50, XLF 12.95, JJC 46.75 and VIX 30.00. If price remains above the levels shown for the first four listed, then the market bulls are fine and market buoyancy will continue. Watch the XLF since it appears the most vulnerable to failing. If JJC remains below 46.75 and VIX remains above 30, then the market bears are fine. Thus, the market bulls need to push copper price higher or push volatilty lower to get the upside to roll along strongly again. The market bears need to push one of the first four sectors lower to get the bear ball rolling south.
For the SPX, starting at 1237.90 today, the market bulls need to touch 1242.50 and that will open the doors to a big push higher in the indexes, the bulls will be running upwards. The futures are currently in favor of this move but a lot can change before the open. The market bears need to push lower down to the critical 1220 support today if they want to bring strong negativity back into the markets and increase the selling pressure. If 1220 is lost the indexes will fall several more handles in quick order. A move thru SPX 1221-1241 is sideways indecision.
At this writing, the Nasdaq is up 0.5% currently while the S&P is up 0.8%, thus, with the futures wanting to see a bouyant start, since the Nas is not leading, the market upside should be limited.
The markets recovered to the upside as projected from the NYAD, CPC, TRIN and other short term indicators highlighted in yesterday's morning missive. Today the broad market direction can be gauged by the behavior of six key sectors, four that provided the recent bull rally with its thrust and remain in the bull camp, and two in the bear camp. The bull-friendly sectors are utilities, semiconductors, retail and financials while the bear-friendly sectors are copper and volatility.
Keystone's algorithm is currently scanning the following levels, representing the above sectors, which will determine today's broad market direction; UTIL 439.23, SOX 371.70, RTH 107.50, XLF 12.95, JJC 46.75 and VIX 30.00. If price remains above the levels shown for the first four listed, then the market bulls are fine and market buoyancy will continue. Watch the XLF since it appears the most vulnerable to failing. If JJC remains below 46.75 and VIX remains above 30, then the market bears are fine. Thus, the market bulls need to push copper price higher or push volatilty lower to get the upside to roll along strongly again. The market bears need to push one of the first four sectors lower to get the bear ball rolling south.
For the SPX, starting at 1237.90 today, the market bulls need to touch 1242.50 and that will open the doors to a big push higher in the indexes, the bulls will be running upwards. The futures are currently in favor of this move but a lot can change before the open. The market bears need to push lower down to the critical 1220 support today if they want to bring strong negativity back into the markets and increase the selling pressure. If 1220 is lost the indexes will fall several more handles in quick order. A move thru SPX 1221-1241 is sideways indecision.
At this writing, the Nasdaq is up 0.5% currently while the S&P is up 0.8%, thus, with the futures wanting to see a bouyant start, since the Nas is not leading, the market upside should be limited.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)