Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the short side yesterday at SPX 7403. The choppy whipsaw slop continues. Utilities and volatility matter. Bears need VIX to remain above 19.18 while bulls need it below.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; Sideways Channel; Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Start of Important Tech Earnings Tomorrow

The SPX daily chart shows the diamond pattern that has been interesting to watch but did not lead anywhere. Price broke out higher but did not confirm an all-out breakout above 7610-ish. The SPX then leaks lower, chopping sideways, extending the right-hand side of the diamond pattern. More importantly now, the brown sideways symmetrical triangle is in play.

Note how price broke up and out of the sideways triangle but could not poke above the rigid resistance of the upper rail of the sideways orange channel. The SPX then staggers lower, returning inside the triangle and now testing the bottom rail of the triangle.

Sideways triangles typically exhibit an interesting behavior. If they break out higher, like above, but then fail, and return to the inside of the triangle, what follows next is typically a failure out the bottom of the triangle. Conversely, if price would fail out the bottom of the triangle, but then rally again and return to the inside of the triangle, price will typically then pop out the top and rally. Currently, we have the former situation.

However, there are a lot of stock market crosscurrents right now. The green lines show positive divergence for the chart indicators for the last four days of equal price lows. The MACD line wants to see another lower low in price, that favors the outcome explained in the previous paragraph, but the other indicators would like to see price bounce now.

The Federal Reserve rate decision is tomorrow when Wizard Warsh will bring the tablets down from On High and tell traders how to trade. Also, key tech earnings begin after the closing bell and continue on Thursday. This is a crap-shoot. Anything can happen.

The vertical side of the triangle pattern is from 7250 to 7625 so that is 375 points difference. Sometimes, it is also wise to look at the vertical side that is one touch in and that is from 7275 to 7600 a 325 difference. In France, pronounced Fraunce, where men comment on the differences between men and women and proclaim, "viva le differaunce!" Thus, if price breaks down from the triangle from here, call it 7390, the downside target would be 7015 to 7065. Conversely, a breakout up and out of the triangle at 7460 would target 7785 to 7835.

The blue line through the heart of the channel at 7440 carries clout. So does the triangle and channel lines and then the June lows and highs. Also the overhead resistance at the 50-day MA at 7470 and 20-day MA R at 7492.

The drama will likely start to intensify in the afternoon tomorrow. Price begins the day at 7429. Bears win if price stays below 7440 and then fails the triangle at 7390. That will usher in negativity and a test of the lower rail of the channel at 7360, and then the next test is 7270. If that fails, the door is wide open to 7015-7065.

If there is happy talk tomorrow, and the SPX recovers above 7440, the bulls will start to puff their chests out. If price breaks up and out of the triangle at 7460, a rally will be in full swing. Price will next target the upper channel rail at 7570 that was formidable resistance 2 weeks ago. The next test would be 7610 and then onward and upward to 7785-7835.

Price violated the lower standard deviation band so a move back up to the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 7492, is on the table. You may see this occur tomorrow morning as traders bide time until Prophet Warsh comes down from On High with the tablets. The triangle keeps squeezing in tight so there will be a winner and loser decided this week. Winners and Losers. Which one will you be today?

King Donnie Chump remains a loser with the Iran War. Trumpski stopped the 2-week bombing campaign as officials were concerned about munition stockpiles. Iran then says it will stop hostilities if the US remains quiet. Of course, Donnie then proclaims that Iran wants to make a deal, folks, they are begging to make a deal, they are saying sir, please stop the bombing, we will do what you want. What a joke. An orange-headed joke. A poll shows that 3 in 5 Americans think Chump is bloviating and lying when he spews about the Iran War. He is not fooling anyone most of all Iran.

Everything is different going forward, folks, we are in the new Global Drone War Era ushered in by Donnie Chump. If stocks collapse, or if yields pop tomorrow on the Fed news, Donnie may panic again and force some type of market action saying the bond market is yippie. A 30-year yield above 5.20% would be problematic. We need Caroline to sing Yip Yip Yow.

This news hits right now in real-time. Iran launches a surprise missile attack against US forces. Yeah, sure, Donnie, Iran is begging for a deal. Sure they are, chump. It sounds like King Donnie is the one begging for a deal. The US cannot bomb Iran into oblivion and send 90 million people into famine. At the same time, Iran has the killer drones, and missiles, to keep firing at US forces and control the Strait of Hormuz. Donnie Chump is in over his orange head and does not know what to do.

The trading week should heat up starting after lunch tomorrow. The Fed news and then tech yearnings the next 2 days will either exalt the stock market opening the door to a party orgy towards SPX 8K, or, open the gates of Hell and usher-in comeuppance time like the dotcom bubble in 1999-2000. Chips are taking the pipe these days. If you bot into the semiconductor stocks on the long side over the last 3 months, you are either flat or have lost money. You chased the shiny object like a chump, and now you are bag-holding sucka. You were the bigger fool. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:05 PM EST: Brent crude oil opens for trading popping over +3% due to the Iran attack. Note how Iran staged that attack knowing that the oil markets would open minutes later sending oil prices higher. Iran is playing Donnie Chump like a Stradivarius. You surely recognize Pachelbel's Canon in D.

Note Added Hump Day Morning, 7/29/26, at 8:49 AM EST: King Donnie wakes up on the wrong side of the bed, puts his big boy pants on, and proclaims that he will "give Iran a beating" in retaliation to the surprise attack. Good luck wit dat, as they say in the Bronx. Iran knows Trumpski will respond that way and does not care. It still does not register in the orange mind that Iran has 10 million religious fanatics that will gladly die as martyrs. They are not driven by hotels, beach resorts, and girls in bikinis. They are radical Islamist terrorists and religious zealots. Hopefully, Donnie can figure a way out of the mess he created. Each day, however, the Iran scab is picked and becomes further infected. Nam was a quagmire and now we have Muz. Crude oil spikes +7% on the latest bloviations. WTIC oil is at 85 and Brent at 90.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/30/26, at 8:06 AM EST: The SPX gives up the ghost and collapses out the bottom of the triangle. That pattern happens quite often where price will break up, or break down, from the sideways symmetrical triangle, only to return to the inside of the triangle and exit in the opposite direction. The next few days will tell if it holds and if stocks deteriorate. With lots of ongoing drama and yearnings this week, the chop suey will surely continue. Price may want to come back up to 74 hundo-ish for a back kiss to make sure it wants to collapse lower going forward and open the door to the 7015-7065 downside target. VIX 19.18 is key. Bears win above and bulls below. A short time ago, the VIX slips below 19.18. That is why you see the buoyancy appear in the US futures. VIX 19.18 tells you the story forward.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips back to the long side at SPX 7479 yesterday. Watch utes, volatility, copper and retail stocks.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips short today at SPX 7423. Retail stocks and volatility failed creating the initial downside flush but the rest of the day was a battle between utes, chips, retail stocks and volatility. Tomorrow will be interesting to see which side shows up with their game face.

Keybot the Quant

SPXS&P 500 Daily Chart; Diamond Pattern; Sideways Channel; Price Extended

The bulls have tried to use the diamond pattern to break out to new highs but they cannot get above 7600, at least not yet, to confirm the breakout. The diamond pattern may fall to the wayside if the bulls cannot push price any higher.

The purple sideways channel at 7350-7560 encompasses most of the price action over the last 2-1/2 months and after all the drama, price is in the middle at 7458 not knowing which way to go. Note that price closed below both the 20-day MA at 7479 and 50-day MA at 7465. Bulls got nothing unless they can climb back above these levels. The 20-week MA is at 7161. The 100-day MA is 7151. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Keystone was not invited to the after party at the final world cup game, if the lower channel rail at 7350 fails, price is likely going down to the 7151-7161 support.

The 150-day MA continues sloping higher so the SPX remains in a cyclical bull market pattern but watch the 150 to see if it flattens and then rolls over lower that spells major trouble ahead. The blue dots show how price is extended above the 20-day MA above the 50-day above the 100 above the 150 above the 200 desperately requiring a mean reversion lower.

The red lines show negative divergence at play wanting to spankdown price and smack, that was a hard slap on Friday, that will turn any buttock cheek red. The Aroon shows the never-ending bullish euphoria continuing for the stock market. No one believes that stocks will ever go down again like the dot-com and Great Recession bubbles. The top in early June was easy to call due to the neggie d, overbot conditions, price extended above the moving average ribbon, and the bullish euphoria in the Aroon.

The set-up is very similar now. The Aroon green line shows that nearly all the bulls think stocks will go up forever. No surprise. The red line, however, shows that all the bears also believe that stocks will go up forever. When everyone is partying on one side of the boat, it capsizes, and people drown.

There are lots of crazy crosscurrents in the stock market these days. A move above 7550, then 7600, will create the path higher for bulls. A move below 7350 will usher in more weakness and a failure at 7230 will open the gates of Hell. Everything inside the sideways channel at 7350-7560 is noise and choppy slop.

King Donnie maintains his first-term legacy as a whining cry-baby sore loser with a speech the other night moaning about his 2020 election loss. Give it a rest, dude. Who even listened to that dribble? If you did, that is a couple hours of your life that you will never get back. King Crybaby. Six years later, and Trumpski still cannot accept his loss against brain-dead Sleepy Joe Biden. The orange head should be focused on stopping the Iran War that is spinning out of control. He can bomb as much as he wants but we are now in the new Global Drone War Era. The supply of cheap drones fitted with explosive warheads are limitless. It is a simple basic technology that is difficult, if not impossible to stop, unless there is regime change. Trumpski opened the door to this mess, a brave new world of drone warfare and terrorism, and still does not understand what is happening.

Iran can use the cheap $20K and $30K drones to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as US bases in the Middle East, and neighboring Arab countries, anytime they want in the future. That cannot be stopped unless ground troops invade the country and remove the IRGC (regime change). Drones have the capability to destroy everything on Earth going forward. Resistance is futile. King Donnie knows, or should know, that the only way he can stop the hostilities in the Middle East is if he removes the regime in Iran and replaces it with a government that agrees not to be a hostile neighbor, but he is a political showman worried about the mid-term elections only 15 weeks away. Good luck wit dat as they say in the Bronx. Donnie is in over his orange head in Iran and says he wants to keep his options open like a woman in her 30's, now in her 40's. Options Open by Kathleen Edwards. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: It's Tuesday afternoon, and I'm just beginning to see, now I'm on my way. Tuesday Afternoon by the Moody's. The SPX comes up to back kiss the 50-day MA at 7469 and 20-day MA at 7478. Price is at 7509 so the bulls are happy but they must maintain the support at 7469-7478, otherwise, a downside flush will continue. The SPX loves that sideways channel at 7350-7560 so watch that top rail at 7560 to see if the bulls can pop above. If not, price will likely leak lower again to test the lower rail at 7350. The Iran War becomes messier each day. King Donnie has been hiding information on US soldiers hurt in action that likely number over 100. The idiot keeps saying that Iran wants to make a deal. Give that a rest dude. Donnie Chump sounds like a moron every time he spouts the untruths. Don't you understand that you are dealing with religious fanatics, jackass? Iranians care about Allah and becoming a martyr not hotels and girls in bikinis. The orange one says the US is in control of the Strait of Hormuz and yet not one ship passes. That is called not having control over the Strait of Hormuz. WTIC oil at 85-ish means that a lot higher gasoline prices are on the come and the US public will be very unhappy. Oil dipped to 67 on 7/2/26 and pops almost 20 bucks in only a couple weeks after Donnie escalated the war in Iran. Since oil creeps higher each day, gasoline prices will creep higher every day. Americans may have to start paying for gasoline on an installment plan; same with the meat at the grocery store. What a mess. The rumor mill says Khomeini may have fled the country. If true, it may be worse for the situation since the IRGC is in full control and they have no desire to talk (but Chump will tell everyone they are dying to make a deal). Iran is 90 million people with 10 million radical Islamists and 80 million regular Muslim folks. The IRGC are the radical terrorist soldiers but remember, these dudes are married and have families, and lots of kids, and parents and grandparents, so that is a formidable task to change the regime in Iran and have the 10 million people that lean radical, because that is how their daily bread is buttered, to ditch their religious beliefs, and change their ways, and welcome a modernized society into Iran.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/22/26, at 6:10 AM EST: King Donnie finally backpedals from the talk that Iran desperately wants a deal. He is now honest and says it does not appear that Iran wants to talk, but he will likely continue talking out of both sides of his orange mouth. That's Our Donnie. WTIC crude oil pops above 88!! Brent oil is over 95!! Folks, run out today and fill your gas tank for the car and the gas cans for the lawn equipment. Gasoline prices are going nowhere but up from here. People were worried about $4 per gallon gasoline but they should be more worried about $5 gas. The concern is not so much the oil price it is the prices of all the derivative products made from oil now in short supply. This will create more inflation, er, Trumpflation. Commodities indexes continue spiking higher indicating more Trumpflation ahead. Donnie's self-imposed Iran War mess continues. The US expands its military targets in Iran like Pickaxe Mountain where nuclear activity occurs and centrifuge equipment may be hidden there. Donnie is screwed, however, because he ushered in the new Global Drone War Era so nowhere is safe around the world when $20K drones fit with an explosive warhead can attack anything at anytime. Welcome to a Brave New World. This is Donnie's legacy.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/23/26, at 4:36 AM EST: WTIC oil catapults to 89.84 a hair away from 90. The GTX (commodities index a reflection of goods inflation) explodes higher to 5547. Trumpflation leads to higher prices across the board and America becomes less affordable for common people. The Iran War is an albatross that King Donnie wears around his orange neck. Trumpski has spent $40 billion on the Iran War and the situation in the Middle East is in worse shape than when he started. The war expands with the radical Islamist Houthi's in Yemen, supported by Iran, shooting at ships in the Red Sea. Secretary of State Rubio begins spewing the stupid mantra that "Iran desperately wants to make a deal." Sure they are. As they expand the war and likely hope it leads to World War III (Iran is 10 million religious fanatics).

Note Added Thursday Evening, 7/23/26, at 8:24 PM EST: WTIC oil catapults to 93.42 now at 92.55. Brent crude oil jumps to 101.71 now at 100.94. The oil price at one hundo creates a negative vibe. GTX explodes higher to 5679 printing above 5.7K today. Trumpflation will create pain for average Americans. The Iran War mess continues with King Donnie Chump mouthing off that he will hit Iran hard with military action. The bloviations are getting old. Of course Trump announces this drama so you have to tune in tomorrow to find out his decision. Each day is a reality television episode to Trumpy and he makes sure there is content available so a camera will remain locked on his orange narcissistic head. He will probably chicken out again or if he moves forward with his so-called bigtime military action, it will likely not change the status of the quagmire war. Anyone that owns, or is employed by, a business that is highly dependent on fuel (diesel, gasoline, etc..), is screwed. Interestingly, the jump in inflation, er Trumpflation, mainly due to skyrocketing oil prices, is supply driven. The Fed may hike rates next week, now at a 35% chance due to the rising inflation, but hikes are more helpful for inflation that is demand-driven instead of supply-driven. Fed Chairman Warsh will bring the tablets down from On High next week to tell traders how to trade.

The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; United States Enters Double-Dip Housing Recession on 7/17/26

You were warned a month or so ago, here is the prior article when the housing recovery was hanging on by its fingernails, but alas, it falls off the cliff again. The United States started a housing recovery in February of this year ending the long over 3-year housing recession that no one noticed. The housing recovery, however, only ran for 5 months and it ended yesterday ushering in a double-dip housing recession.

In years gone by, manufacturing, housing and labor recessions, all were occurring over the last couple years or so, would guarantee an overall economic recession for America. Not anymore. Tech and AI runs the show now and the obscene spending and expansion of this fledgling, yet to be proven, technology stops the country from slipping into overall recession. Also, the wealth effect felt by America's privileged elite, that raped the financial system for all its worth over the last few decades, with the help of the Fed's money-printing, is fueling consumer spending that also keeps the overall recession bear at bay.

Thus, mathematicians say thus and therefore a lot, that is why Keystone was not invited to the Amvets party and fireworks show on July 4th, the last couple years were a battle between the manufacturing, housing and labor recessions against consumer spending (by the rich that control the crony capitalism system) and AI revolution. The consumer spending fueled by the wealth effect (the rich see their stocks going to the moon and keep asking why everyone is so glum) and AI hype staves off the overall recession for the US but how long will this occur?

Half the country does not own a single share of stock so the easy money games, and gains, over the years purely enriched the wealthy class effortlessly while the common American was hosed. No wonder why tens of millions of Americans no longer give a sh*t and social unrest increases with each passing week. There is no American Dream since the game is rigged by the wealthy class. Common folks no longer have any skin in the game and no longer expect their lives, or their children's lives, to be better. The wealthy class skinned the poor, and the middle class that no longer exists. The US is a faux free market crony capitalism system with 30 million privileged elite and upper class sycophants, that service the elite, at the top and 300 million peons at the bottom. Once you accept the fact that capitalism does not exist, it will all make sense to you.

So here we are with a new housing recession period beginning. The reason the news is bad is because inflation is on the rise at the same time. Trumpflation, due to King Donnie's tariffs and Iran War, remains elevated and floating higher and can only be stopped with higher rates. However, that would be a disaster to raise rates now with the housing sector slipping back into a double-dip recession. A hike in rates would completely crush the housing market and send the US into an overall recession, finally.

Fed Chairman Warsh, with the perfect hair, will probably leave rates as is on 7/29/26 and punt until the next meeting. Warsh has helmet hair like Bobby Goldsboro. Warsh is actually bald and his hair is a plastic mold. He picks it up off the Styrofoam head on the nightstand each morning and places it on his bald noggin. That is why every hair is in its place; it is a plastic mold. Most of you young folks do not know Bobby Goldsboro. He was a famous singer decades back and had hair that looked like someone cut it with a bowl on his head. His nickname was Helmet Head and Helmet Hair and he took it all in stride as good fun. Honey was his classic song. Lots of folks would cry when he sang Honey since everyone in life loses loved ones. Now that the housing recession is back, and an overall recession may be on the come, everyone will soon be crying.

NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40-Week MA Cross

Long-time followers have seen this indicator many times over the years. Long-time reminds you of a song. Foreplay/Long Time by Boston. A key cyclical stock market indicator is the NYA 40-week MA cross. What? There's that Greek again. What is he talking about?

The festivities are starting. The NYA weekly chart above is in full negative divergence across all indicators so the top is locked-in on the weekly basis. The stochastics and money flow are overbot agreeable to a pullback. It is up in nosebleed territory so it has a long way down to come once it gives up the ship.

The NYA 40-wk MA at 22626 and rising is the cyclical bull/bear line in the sand. Price is at 23817 so about 1200 points above. The bulls are sipping Fed wine and smoking fine cigars dabbing the ashes onto the faces of the huddled masses. A drop to the critical line in the sand that would send stocks into a cyclical bear market and pain and misery ahead is only -5% away.

However, the weekly chart is now neggie d. Thus, it will receive a spankdown and drop for several weeks. The 5% could disappear quickly so keep an eye on it. Write 22.7K on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. If price drops to that level, you know that the stock market is likely falling into the abyss.

The bears are up at bat going forward so let's see if they can first attain the 23K level that is the 20-wk MA. Just think, late this year and in 2027, it is likely that price will be all the way down to touch and fall through the 200-week MA. There is lots of congestion at 19K-20K so it may take effort to saw through that level down the road.

If you bring up the NYA monthly chart, you can see all the indicators in negative divergence except the MACD line. This is on a multi-month basis and tells you that THE top is at our doorstep. We are talking a 2000 dot-com bubble, or 2008-2009 Great Recession. The weekly chart above is topped out so over the next couple weeks, as July ends, watch the MACD on the monthly because it will tell you on 7/31/26 if THE long-term multi-month perhaps multi-year top is in place. If the MACD starts sloping down by month-end, it is over folks. The multi-week downside will be child's play compared to the gloom, despair, pain and agony ahead on the monthly basis. In the 1970's and early 1980's, Hee-Haw was a fun show that families would watch together on Saturday night at 7 PM EST and then All in the Family would be on after that. Gloom, Despair, and Agony On Me. 

If the MACD remains upward-sloping at the end of this month, the NYA may need a month or two before THE top is in place to provide time for the MACD to go neggie d. Also in play is the MACD up in nosebleed territory so if it fell without going neggie d, that would not be surprising (THE long-term top is now with the weekly chart rolling over and the monthly to follow).

What does all that mumbo-jumbo mean? I don't understand half the stuff this guy is saying. Very simply, the top is in for the NYA right now on the weekly basis so it will travel lower, in a couple fits and starts, for several weeks. If the MACD line on the monthly chart rolls over, it is over for the stock market on a long-term basis. If the MACD on the monthly still slopes higher on 7/31/26, THE top will only be delayed by a month or two at most (a few weeks) and you would have to stay on guard since it could fall apart at any time. You are watching a significant long-term top form in real-time.

This is a lot different analysis than all the yahoo's on television and the internet calling for SPX 8.3K and higher by year end and SPX 9K in 2027. What are they smoking. Tell them to get out of those vape shops and get back to work. They will probably see a 5-handle on the SPX at year-end instead of an 8-handle. As things slide lower, you know what to watch; 22.7K-ish. Roy Clark was a musician's musician; his abilities were legendary but he always liked to have fun, act goofy, and play down his exceptional talent, to constantly surprise the audience, a hallmark of a great entertainer. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: NYA 23890. The 20-wk MA is 23.1K. The 40-wk MA major line in the sand and demarcation into a cyclical bear market is 22.7K. The bulls are not concerned.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross: Stock Market Slips into a Short-Term Bear Market Pattern

Whooposies daisies. There is a lot of whoopsie daisying going on these days. One of Keystone's key cyclical, or short-term is a better word, indicators is the SPX 1-hour chart with 200 EMA cross. What'd he say? That sounds like Greek. The short-term bear market fell apart in late June as the Trump happy Iran War talk and the ongoing AI orgy sent stocks higher.

There were a couple tests of the ST bull in July. You can see how price bounced off the 200 EMA support. Do you think it is an important number? Obviously, the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 7475 carries clout and it failed last week opening the door to a ST bear market. It would be reasonable to expect a back test of the 200 early next week. Give it a day or two to see if the new short-term bear market pattern is cast in concrete, or not. If so, the next step would be watching to see if it develops into a cyclical bear market for many weeks and months ahead.

A really important person passed away in recent days. It is a shame hearing about the death of that individual that was a great international spokesperson for a better world. The news of that person passing is sad and will impact countries and people all over the world. Talk about a great legacy. That person will be missed by an international audience. Yes, by now, you know who we are talking about. Yes, that is right. Bonnie Tyler. Huh? Oh, some of you thought it was that Graham character. No, he was just another corrupt politician. However, it is sad news that Bonnie died. She was a fantastic singer with a raspy voice.

Bonnie sang a bunch of hits but It's a Heartache will always be her signature song. There was something about her raspy voice and heartache that went together. As her singing career was taking off in the late 1970's, she had trouble with her vocal chords. It only got worse. They were permanently damaged and her voice would forever be scratchy and raspy. She was sad thinking that her music career was over as fast as it was starting but they decided to record songs anyways. It's A Heartache was an immediate international hit. In quick order, Bonnie Tyler was famous and an international singing sensation. If you turned on the radio in the late 1970's and early 1980's you would hear this song within 10 minutes. The song also matched the times since the 70's were difficult with high inflation and the Iranian hostage crisis. There was not a lot going right at the time. Her voice was great all the way up until she died. R.I.P. Bonnie. Your voice will live on forever; a great legacy. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute is 7476 with price at 7509 busting up through to keep the bears at bay. Bulls are high-fiving one another but it would be prudent for a back test of 7476 to occur to make sure the bulls really want it. The SPX 7476 is key and tells you who will win going forward. Bears need 33 points lower in the SPX or they are going to get beaten like a rented mule. Warren from Government Mule performing Soulshine with his Martin hand made in Pennsylvania. Excellent.

SOX Semiconductors Daily Chart; Textbook Head and Shoulders (H&S) So Far; Gap Fills; SOX Crashes -20.3% Off the Top into a Bear Market

Whoopsies daisies. It looks like the CHIPS have skidded out on the highway. Ponch! Ponch! The semiconductors have been the most popular girl at the dance but her fame is fleeting after it is discovered that she has two left feet. The chips move south after creating a textbook H&S pattern, at least so far.

The head is at 14630 and neck at 12200 so that is 2430 difference. Take that away from 12200 and you get 9770 as the downside target if the neckline fails. SOX is making that decision right now. It is bounce, or die, time.

Price comes down and fills that orange gap as it decides what to do. There are numerous other orange gaps that need filled down below so many that it looks like Swiss cheese. Did you know they started to put fake holes in the Swiss cheese? Next time you go to the deli counter, grab some Swiss and you will see the holes are perfect circles cut by a die-cutter blade. It probably takes too long to allow the cheese to form the holes naturally so do it the phony-baloney way. No one notices.

The 12200 support is key since it has held for a couple months and served as resistance in May. Will the chips fail right here and allow the H&S to play out and begin the popping of the AI bubble, or, will price simply bounce from here and say 'never mind' like Emily Latella? Gilda was great; she got screwed in life.

The entire fate of artificial intelligence going forward hinges on the chart above. Will it live, or die? The price drops to 12023, so this is a key number, and now rebounds to 12280 and more as the bulls try to pump the chips and stay out of trouble. Keystone is short the chips but the trade is flat after the choppy slop. State of Mind. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: The battle at the 12200 neckline rages on. That 12023 was the LOD yesterday and price recovered to 12418, then stumbled into the closing bell at 12399.

Note Added Friday Morning, 7/17/26: Whoopsies daisies. The chips take the pipe yesterday dropping to 11868. The neck fails so the downside target at 9770 is on the table.  Keep an eye out for a back kiss of the neckline in the days ahead. Otherwise, the gap fill at 11.5K is next. SOX was at 14655 only 18 trading days ago (6/22/26) and collapses to 11.8K-ish. Within one month, the dirty SOX crash -19.5% a hair away from the media's metric for a bear market at -20%. Perhaps that threshold gives way today. SMH is dropping -3% and XSD -2% in the pre-market so that points to a loss in the SOX on tap today, at least in the early going. China says Moonshot will be the top AI dog and no one needs all those expensive US chips. The communists sing that it is a marvelous night for a Moondance. 

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: The SOX drops to 11194 and ends the week at 11674 crashing -10% in the last 5 days and now down -20.3% in a bear market. The 20-wk MA is 10.8K and rising and may serve as support. The dirty SOX are in the bear market hamper.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: The SOX rallies to 12356 with dip-buyers tripping over each other to buy, buy, buy. The 50-day MA is 12769. Price comes up to back test the neckline of the H&S at 12200 and floats a bit higher to the 12356. Price would roll over from here and drop if the H&S pattern plays out going forward.

SPCX SpaceX 2-Hour Chart; Positive Divergence

It is futile to trade SpaceX technically since it is still an infant. SPCX has been available for 21 trading days so the weekly charts got nothing unless you want to look at a 6-week MA. Same-o for the daily chart. If you bring that up, you see the IPO price at 135 and the stock opened at 150. It popped above 225 as the biggest fool bot with both fists and is now wearing a barrel.

There is a 20-day MA at 161.40 that started over the last couple days (because it is now 21 days old). Price is below the 20-day so that is a bearish vibe. The RSI is flattish on the daily chart but slips slightly lower losing the 50% level slipping into bear territory. The stochastics, however, are oversold, with nowhere to go but up in the daily time frame. Money flow is also positively diverged on the daily chart agreeable to a move higher from here on the daily basis. A lower standard deviation band number is 126, again, all this data is fresh and you cannot read a lot into it since the stock is so young, so price may want to try and tag that 126 before a sustainable run higher on the daily basis occurs.

All that mumbo-jumbo brings us to the 2-hour chart above that finally has some technical aspects to assess. The blue lines show the IPO price at 135 and the opening price at 150. The 150 was held through Friday, July 10th, and then the bottom fell out. There must have been a backroom deal with market makers and bankers to maintain the 150 price until 7/10/26. Maybe they also have an agreement to hold the 135 for a certain amount of time?

Regardless, SPCX falls to 136 only a buck above its IPO price not exactly the ringing endorsement of the future that many had hoped for but again, it is an infant in the stock market and it has to learn to crawl before it can walk.

The 2-hour chart is a happy set-up for SpaceX. The green lines show price making the lower low while all the chart indicators are sloping higher, positive divergence, so she is loaded up with fuel and ready for blast-off in the 2-hour time frame (the day-traders and swing traders playground). Price also violated the lower band so a move to the middle band at 145 is on the table. Price should bounce in this time frame and perhaps seek a back kiss of the 150 since that did not yet occur.

The daily chart does not have enough technicals but the happy stochastics and money flow will join the happy times above and send SPCX higher for a couple-few days. Guessing at how the daily chart will develop, however, there is likely still a bit of weakness perhaps to touch the 126 or at least test the 135 price to see if the market makers are supporting it there. Guessing, since there are no technicals, price may want to bump around 126-135 after the couple days of happiness shown above. That may place the bottom in the daily time frame maybe later this week or early next week and begin a multi-day rally that likely takes it back above 150.

What does all this mean? Probably a bounce now in the 2-hour time frame for a day or two then roll over again perhaps down to 126-135 for a few days and that would be a bottom in the daily time frame where price would run higher again from there with a multi-day rally probably above 150 and more. It can only be day-traded now from a technical perspective. Keystone is not in it long or short and probably will not play it. It is likely a good play now for a long but take the profits later today or tomorrow or before the weekend.

The stock is probably worth about $65 so even at its current price it is probably too expensive but hype and crowd behavior can easily send price far higher. The sap and bagholding fool at 225 hopes so. The humanoid talk is comical. Who needs a $30K garbage robot to fold your laundry? It is laughable. Americans have tiny homes and zero in their bank accounts so a nonsense robot like that is a joke. The humanoid could only operate in a large wide open mansion performing stupid duties; it would probably be more of a novelty piece. And electricity and water does not mix; that is why they are not showing the humanoid washing the dishes or watering the garden. Maybe the robot can be trained to wipe your *ss. That' funny.

The reason Musk and SpaceX is into the humanoids is not for us to use but rather for space exploration and military applications. It is surprising that no one talks about the obvious. The humanoids are being refined because you can load up a couple dozen in a space ship and fire them off to the moon or Mars. They can walk around and explore planets and feed the data back to Earth. There would be leaps and bounds in technology quickly instead of waiting for another astronaut to collect a rock and bring it back for analysis. In addition, humanoids and drones will fight the future wars on Earth; the drones are now. Be there or be square.

The satellites and Starlink are the bread and butter for SpaceX but it will be interesting as the space junk fills the black skies above Earth. Linda Perry is a helluva talent and great songwriter. Here is Spaceman from years ago. If you were standing in front of her, the resonance from her voice would knock you over; so powerful for such a small lady. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: SpaceX was receiving lots of attention yesterday as traders and the media watched the price action at the 135 IPO price that was arbitrarily set when the stock went to market. Bloop. Price drops to 132 but closes at the 135. The market makers probably let it go to see if there was support but it did not appear so and then the pump back to 135 occurs. Nothing has changed. The positive divergence on the 2-hour has SPCX fueled up and ready to fly high. You still have to wait for technicals to appear on the daily chart to get a better bearing but the 2-hour wants price to rally for a day or two.

Note Added Friday Morning, 7/17/26: SpaceX attempts to launch a rocket last night but the mission is aborted. 29 Raptor engines roared to life champing at the bit to launch into the blackness of the universe but alas, 4 engines would not ignite, maybe a Styrofoam coffee cup is stuck in the intake, so the computer brought the system down and told everyone to cool your jets. SPCX drops to the 126 mentioned above. Musk says next week is possible for a relaunch so the stock may stumble sideways until that occurs. The charts price-in the negative news. A few days will give more time for the technical indicators and moving averages to develop on the daily chart. She should recover going forward and the 2-hour, potentially daily chart will be set up for upside. It appears that the launch adds a new twist and some may judge SpaceX on its next launch.

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: SPCX ends the week at 124 after the engine failures. It still wants to bounce in the hourly time frame but may be soggy in the daily time frame depending on how the chart lines start forming.

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: SPCX 124. It dropped to 119.68 yesterday.  A couple more days will reveal more of the technical lines. The 2-hour bounces for 3 candlesticks, the rolls over so it will depend on how the daily chart sets up that will probably be positive but we will see how it goes.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/28/26: SPCX is at 109.93 in the premarket. Wow. SpaceX redeems itself with a perfect relaunch but the stock does not catch a break. It took a dip lower when the launch failed, but when it was successful, the stock does not go up. People are taking the money and running. Maybe they do not have confidence in the technology there moving forward? Or on how the tech actually makes money. SPCX is a satellite company that has higher aspirations. SPCX is down to 109.32. They need a relaunch of the stock. The SPCX daily chart shows price dropping but the RSI is flat, MACD pointing up a hair, stochastics sloping up and oversold, and money flow flat and oversold. All these metrics are positive divergence so the stock would be expected to pop on the daily basis from here. The SPX 2-hour charrt is also set up with possie d  so price should run higher from here on the daily basis. The charts remain in their infancy but that would be the call now. Perhaps dip-buyers rush in today willing to park some money in SPCX for a hundo a share.