The neggie d top on the daily chart finally forms and creates the spankdown as previously explained. Price falls through the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA at 7465, like a hot knife through butter. Price successfully back kisses the 20 and then falls to violate the lower band so a move back up to the middle band is on the table and voila, price comes up to 7456 on Friday. There is another 10 points needed to tap on the 20-day so the bulls may be gunning for that tomorrow. The 20-day MA at 7465 is an important resistance ceiling with bulls winning bigtime above while bears will win the game if price remains below.
The SPX topped-out as June started due to the rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence across all chart indicators. A spankdown was needed and occurs. Price was over extended to the upside above the 20-day MA above the 50-day, above the 100 above the 150 above the 200, so a mean reversion lower was needed.
Note the three lows that print last week. That allows you to look at the chart indicators to see if positive divergence forms to set up a relief rally on the daily basis. This is when Donnie Chump announced that an Iran War deal was in the bag and the signing would be this weekend. Stocks exploded higher on Thursday and Friday. Follow the thin black line down to see if possie d is in play as price makes a matching or lower low, and it is for all indicators except the MACD line that remains weak and bleak wanting to see another lower low in price on the daily basis. This proves that the rally is due to Donnie hype and is not a technical bottom. Technically, there is unfinished business to the downside so the Iran War happy talk will have to play out for a day or few.
King Trumpski is threatening military action again after Iran says they will likely not sign the agreement today but perhaps in the days ahead. Iran likely wants to wait to see what happens at the G7. Who will Donnie talk to and what does he say? Baby Trump wants his little birthday agreement present today so he can spin a yarn that he created world peace on his birthday. What color is the sky in that dufus's mind? Probably orange.
Iran plays Trump like a Stratovarius. Even if a deal is agreed to, Iran will tell their proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon to fire missiles at Israel, and Israel will have to retaliate, so Iran will say the deal is off because Israel needs to stop fighting. Donnie is the Chump in this circle-jerk party game squandering the military success in Iran and instead creating a mess that may be worse for the US and the world. Futures open at 6 PM EST and that will already be 1 AM Middle East time on Monday morning.
The ADX shows that the down move in March was a strong trend lower but that petered out in early April as the rally took hold. The entire upside from there and printing of all-time record highs comes without the ADX signaling that it is a strong trend higher. For the record highs, the ADX should be above 30 and probably at 40 right now instead it is down to 26 and dropping. The ADX is not impressed with the stock market rally at all. The ADX tried to show a strong trend just as the all-time record high was printed, but that did not hold and disappeared fast.
The Aroon shows a negative cross. That came about fast. Now the bulls are still bullish for stocks but the bears are now bearish the stock market. A week ago, the bulls were bullish, no surprises there, and the bears were also bullish. Traders and investors are starting to rethink the stock market and worry that the party may not last.
Lots more downside would be expected going forward considering the negative divergence in the weekly time frame and the rampant complacency and fearlessness that continues in the stock market that is displayed during every major and historic top.
That UFC garbage is tonight where blood and spit will cover the Whitehouse lawn. If that is what people want, give it to them. Sick stuff. The people's house and lawn is not the place for such a violent blood sport. Looks like rain or the hot sweaty air and bugs may ruin the cage match. They say 100K people may fill the Ellipse for the viewing. Huh? A major speech or inauguration may draw 100K to 200K to the area but it is hard to believe that about one-half or more of the people that attend the major campaign and political events in Washington, DC, are going to flock there late on a Sunday night to watch blood and spit fly from people's mouths? That audience is probably going to be all young people, mainly men, from 15 years old to 50. Donnie and the gang are praying for No Rain. Ooh, ooh, ooh, I like watching the puddles gather rain. It's not sane. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Monday Morning, 6/15/26, at 5:55 AM EST: The orchestrated Iran War agreement is announced by Trumpy at 5:30 PM EST. He proclaims the Strait of Hormuz is open and to 'let the oil flow'. Idiot. An hour later, the Strait of Hormuz will not open until Friday. It does not matter. The insurers of those cargoes need details and to know what is going on factually before they can commit to allowing their ships to pass through those now dangerous waters. You knew the deal was coming because all day Sunday, Trumpy boasted of a conclusion no matter what, regardless of details that remain in disagreement. Note how Donnie waited until 5 PM EST, since it turns Monday in Iran 7 hours ahead, because he hoped the radical Islamists would capitulate and give him his baby birthday present. Iran did not. Iran waited for Monday to stick it to Trump. Donnie wanted to announce an agreement, whatever it is, since details will not be released, before futures opened and boom, S&P futures pop +100 points. There was no signing of any agreement. There is supposed to be a signing in Switzerland on Friday but it is unknown who will be signing what. Iran continues to state different details about the deal than Trump. It is a weak deal since Donnie does not want to release the details. When Trump kept threatening military action but backing away, he gave up his leverage. Iran knew Donnie was looking for an exit ramp. They are eating his lunch. It was clear in Trump's statements that he does not want to send troops into Iran so that gives Iran the upper hand in the deal making process. King Donnie opined about loss of Iranian lives if bombing continued and the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed, so King Donnie the deal maker, gave up his leverage. Trump was not willing to finish the mess he created. The US may be giving Iran from $12 billion to $24 billion dollars upon the signing of the agreement. What? Donnie complained that Obama gave $1.7 billion to the radical nation. No wonder Trump will not release the details. Both Trump and Iran now say they will not release details until the signing on Friday that means they are still arguing over unsettled issues. There is no mention of the ballistic missiles that the radical Islamists can attach upgraded uranium, or a biological pathogen, in a warhead and create havoc in a major European city. Trumpy's Iran deal sounds like a sh*t deal, if there is a deal. Folks, open your eyes. Trump goes from demanding an unconditional surrender to having his orange tail between his legs negotiating a weak deal. In addition, Trump and Putin talk to each other and then after they hang up, Putin bombs a heritage site in Ukraine and kills some more civilians. Donnie does not care about Ukraine since he lies in bed with Vlad. Donnie hates Ukraine so much that he will not take advantage of their expertise in drone warfare that could greatly help the United States defenses. Israel says 'deal, what deal?' and states that they are not bound to the agreement between Trump and Iran. All of the above creates a happy start to the trading week and that may continue since stocks are typically higher into a Fed meeting anyway. The charts need to price-in the additional Donnie hype. Adding a hundo to Friday's closing price of 7431 is 7531 blowing up through the 20-day MA at 7465. The high from the previous Friday was 7542 so that may act as a ceiling. Again, there is no reason for price to come back up, there are no gaps to fill; all the gaps are below. Price may moderate between 7465 and 7542 until it makes an exit on one side or the other. There will be drama for a few days with the G7, Warsh's debut performance on hump day, and the so-called Iran deal signing on Friday. If the so-called signing occurs late Friday, the stock market craziness may stumble into next week. So there is likely a week and a half of wild price action ahead. The pop gives you a chance to get out of longs. Nothing's changed. The charts will reset and a major top remains on the docket going forward. The off the charts bullish euphoria in the stock market and expectation that equities will go up forever is on full display just like the dotcom bubble. The UFC event went off without rain ruining the evening so that is good. Humorously, just as expected, the entire crowd for the UFC event was young men. Trumpy wanted to placate his voting base. King Donnie is flying over to France for the G7.
