CPC Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Complacency and Bullish Euphoria Lingers Indicating a Top Any Day

The ongoing complacency, bullish euphoria and fearlessness is evidenced by the low put/call ratios and is historic behavior. The off the charts complacency and lack of any worry that any downside will ever occur in stocks is special; like the dotcom bubble in 1999-2000 and the real estate bubble 2008-2009. It has the same feel. After many weeks and months, we are at this euphoric high as if the walls of the room were just painted with airplane glue. She's gonna be a doozy.

You should have planned for a big pullback already with Keystone beating this dead horse for a while. A buddy years ago was a trucker and he had a delivery at a rendering plant (the proverbial glue factory). He was hung over from a late night of drinking and not feeling well. A plant that is processing dead animal carcasses gives off the most putrid smell; it is nasty. So he is starting to smell this sickening odor and still does not know which loading dock to back the rig into and sees a man sitting over yonder eating lunch.

He decides to run over there and ask the man where to back his rig, unload, and get out of there as fast as possible. As he walks up to the guy he realizes he is sitting on a dead horse, and his lunch bucket is open and sitting on the carcass. There are flies around and the man looks up with part of his tuna fish sandwich dripping from his chin. The poor dude saw that and blew his cookies right there and could not stop puking. He looked up as he was dry-heaving and saw the guy sitting on the dead horse laughing his arse off. The trucker buddy said he did not feel right for 2 days after that.

Anyhoo, be warned. If you are new to trading, get out. Sit and watch over the next couple months. Maybe a Black Friday tomorrow? What do you think? You are ready for an event like that, aren't you? If stocks fall apart tomorrow, watch the utilities. If UTIL, or DJU, loses 1067, it is lights out, and that would pave the way for a potential Black Friday, or Black Monday, and crash ahead. It's going to be a lot of fun over the coming days and weeks.

The bears may mean business. The previous charts show the neggie d in play so the smackdowns are in progress and should have legs lower for a few weeks. Remember yesterday, price came up for a back kiss of the 50-day MA at 6837, and bounced, so it jumped to touch and back test the 20-day MA at 6913. It fell back to close midway between the 20 and 50. Then today, the SPX puts its big boy pants on and jumps to the 20-day at the opening bell and higher, but only to retreat again. Price sits on the 20 and will make a bounce or die decision from 6913 in the morning. S&P futures are slightly negative on Thursday evening on the East Coast.

Price did not have to come back up because the neggie d should begin slapping price hard to the downside without mercy. The bears may mean business this time because they came up to fill that large gap from the Tuesday collapse. Now the SPX has no need to come back up at all going forward. If you are not ready for the big pullback, you are going to receive your head on a platter. Only You, And You Alone, can prepare for the downfall that is knocking at your front door right now. The Platters. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross

A great near-term and short-term stock market signal is the SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross. Say what? What language you speakin'? Stocks are in a short-term bull market if the SPX is above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 6883. Stocks are in a short-term bear market if the SPX is below the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 6883, like now. The battle continues.

The SPX was above the 200 at the end of last year as everyone enjoyed some figgy pudding. The start of the year teased failure at the 200 but more AI hype and talk of rate cuts sends the front half of the month to the moon. The trouble started yesterday, Tuesday, with the big drop in equities shown by the red circle.

Price comes back up for the back kiss of the 50-day MA at 6830 today and bounced, taking out the 200 EMA at 6883 and running above 69 hundo. Alas, at the end of the day, the S&P 500 falls on its sword and drops lower to 6876 to end below the important 200 EMA at 6883 albeit by 7 measly points. Nonetheless, the bears have their hands on the market steering wheel.

Tomorrow and Friday are big days. Watch SPX 6883 since it is going to tell you who wins going forward. Bulls need 7 points to paint a bright picture ahead and S&P futures are up +19 on Wednesday evening.

President Trump is in rare form this week. Stocks rallied today after King Donnie folded like a cheap suit at Davos. He was worried about the stock and bond markets just like when he previously folded due to turmoil from his tariff rhetoric. TACO=Trump Always Chickens Out. The Europeans show that they do have a tiny backbone after all. Europe pulls the prior tariff deal now that Donnie has changed the goalposts adding new Greenland tariffs creating a larger mess. Canada's Carney puffs-out his thin chest, standing-up to King Trump, although he is not much taller than the podium, suggesting that Donnie's actions are rupturing ties with allies. The orange head went to Europe to film the latest episode of Donnie Does Davos but Davos did him.

Trumpski backpedaled at Davos from the Greenland threats and unhinged remarks over the last few weeks. He says he will not use force. Then he says he will not impose tariffs on European nations over the matter. He caved. Trump says he has a framework of a deal over Greenland but he talked to NATO and not Denmark. An hour later he said he had the concept of a framework of a deal. It is pure jackass stuff.

The orange head gets Iceland and Greenland mixed-up during his comments like any 80-year old would; he is probably going down the Biden dementia path. The Whitehouse press secretary chick Leavitt, that always yells when she talks, berates anyone asking about the mix-up denying it happened and changing the subject. Thanks for the transparency. When Donnie was pressed about the so-called Greenland deal by a reporter, he said it was too complicated to explain. Pause for laughter. That is what you tell people when you are bull-sh*tting them. Are you going to own Greenland; yes or no? Donnie has no answer except to say it will be an "infinte" deal. Huh? Quick, get this man some ginkgo biloba and Geritol.

Do you little orange sycophants suck this stuff up and believe the dribble? Right on cue, the Donnie kiss-*sses run to microphones proclaiming that he is playing 3-dimensional chess and the Greenland deal, what deal?, is brilliant. It is laughable. There is no deal yet. Trumpski could have taken care of the Greenland matter behind closed doors with zero need for drama. He is a baby man-child and was the King Crybaby after the 2020 election loss.

Hollywood Donnie raised cane about Greenland the last few days so he could have more drama and filler for his daily reality television show. That was the reason. It is daily theater and stage craft with Donnie feeding his narcissistic ego seeking attention and adoration; it is his daily fuel. The crazy Greenland rhetoric was a step too far trying to screw and shaft allies like they are pieces of dirt. Not a good move or look. Trump proves himself untrustworthy among allies.

However, the antics guaranteed that the cameras would be on him each day before, into, and through Davos, and that is what really mattered to Donnie. Everyday is a new episode of the presidential reality television show. Tomorrow he plans to sing the 'Donnie Man Can' a remake of the Candy Man. Take it away Sammy. Who can make a sunrise? Cover it with chocolate? The Donnie Man Can. Sammy was a helluva talent and performer. And he did all that with one eye. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UST10Y 10-Year US Treasury Yield Daily Chart; Textbook Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern

Yields pop this week as markets become nervous about Japanese bond markets and with the King Donnie daily baby rhetoric the latest diatribe is Greenland. Diatribe Donnie will be speaking from Davos shortly where he is hob-nobbing with the billionaires that tell the millionaires how to live. Donnie loves to dine and play in the opulence while Americans cannot afford to pay their bills or buy food. Let them eat cake. The a-holes attending Davos will profess worry about climate change when their private jets are burning barrels of fuel at the airport proving that agenda is phony BS.

Anyhoo, the 10-year yield pops higher receiving an upward thrust from the inverted H&S. With neckline at 4.15% and head at 3.95%, that is 20 bips. If yield breaks out above the neck at 4.15% the upside target to satisfy the H&S is 4.35% and that is price resistance from August. Yield popped to 4.32% so it is almost there already. It may overshoot up to the 4.39%-ish level.

The orange lines for the chart indicators show the upward thrust but the blue lines show negative divergence developing and the stochastics are overbot. The yield has legs higher due to the Japan worries and on recent Fed and Donnie talk, and inflation and jobs data, however, the daily chart hints that the upside may not endure. Ditto for the weekly chart.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to the fun football game parties, yield may finish up its run to satisfy the 4.35% target and then drift lower again. The 200-day MA 4.24% is strong support. The weekly chart wants to see yield jog in this 4.25%-4.39% area for a couple-three weeks before likely topping out with negative divergence.

Thus, yield will likely remain elevated in this 4.30% to 4.39% area chopping along for the next month and then the sideways range will likely widen and the 10-year yield will spend much of its time the next few months stumbling sideways through the 4.15%-4.40% range, and bringing it in tighter, the 4.24%-4.40% range. It does not have the vibe that it will run to 4.5% and higher over the next few months but the political and Fed rhetoric, and new Fed chair pick that should come anytime, and Japan concerns, will dictate some of the movement.

Keystone is not playing in this arena. You can adopt the same technical analysis to the TBT ETF and also assess the standard H&S pattern on the TLT ETF. The TLT is the mirror image of TBT. When notes and bonds are shunned, and price drops, and yields run higher, as the 10-year yield chart shows above, the TBT is the winner and TLT the loser. When notes and bonds are bought, the price runs higher, and yields retreat, so TLT is the winner and TBT the loser. King Donnie has been quiet the last few days on Iran. After the Iranians were shot in the street, they got smart and stayed home, then the orange head jumped in and proclaimed that he stopped the shootings. It's funny. Donnie likes that Beach Boys tune, 'Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran'. Everybody sing. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 1-Minute Chart; King Donnie's Greenland Temper Tantrum Sinks Stocks

The chart shows the impact of King Donnie's Greenland temper tantrum on the US stock market. Don't panic, don't panic! The low, thus far, is 6833 so the drop after the opening bell is from 6940 to 6833 or 107 points. Don't you love the smell of napalm in the morning? Bring in the airships, boys. Another day at the office. You know, someday this stock market is going to end.

The buy the dip crowd rushes in to save the day, tripping over each other afraid of missing out on an entry point since everyone believes that stocks go up forever. Price bounces sideways through the blue channel so bulls will recover above 6870 while the stock market will likely fall apart if the 6833-6840 gives way again.

Way to go Donnie. The orange head is headed to Switzerland for a winter vacation in the Alps with the wealthy people he idolizes, while Americans cannot afford to live or eat. Let them eat cake. Don't forget to tune in to future episodes of the King Donnie reality television show; next up this week is Donnie Does Davos.

The US cable news is still talking about that Minnesota shooting. That idiot Karen chick, that was Renee, should have shut the SUV off and walked away like the 1960's hit pop song, and she would still be kickin'. Walk Away Renee. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1:54 PM EST: The SPX LOD is 6803. XLF 53.19 falling all day long (banksters). VIX above 20 to 20.75 (volatility). UTIL 1085.

Note Added 2:23 PM EST: King Donnie is flapping his orange gums and stocks drift lower to a new LOD at 6802. Will the S&P 500 break 68 hundo? Donnie continues talking telling everyone he is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Note Added 2:32 PM EST: SPX drops to 6796 a 67-handle. Whoopsies, daisies.

Note Added 5:25 PM EST: The SPX pukes 143 points, -2.1%, to 6796.86 with the LOD at 6789.05. The 50-day MA at 6830 was support, until it gave way, and now it becomes resistance. Price will want to come up for a back kiss of the 50 since it is an important moving average. The Dow collapses 871 points. 

Note Added 1/21/26 at 3:50 AM EST: The back test up to the 50-day MA at 6830 from 6797 is 33 points. S&P futures are up +29 so it looks like the back kiss is on tap. Price may dance around 6830, give or take, and then it will have to make a bounce or die decision. The 20-week MA support is at 6769 and a drop through here leads to bad things going forward. The 100-day MA is at 6745 and this is where a lot of bounces tend to occur. If the 100-day gives way, that will lead to ugly things. Markets are waiting for Trumpski to speak at 8:30 AM EST at the 'Donnie Does Davos' reality television show. That is 1:30 PM Davos local time so traders and investors drink coffee waiting for the orange head to appear in 4-1/2 hours and for the baby rhetoric to begin.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bear side today at SPX 6846 exactly where the year began. It was 20 days of nothing. Volatility and banks are bearish creating the stock market negativity. Watch the VIX 17.00 and XLF 54.28 bull/bear lines in the sand. Any recovery in stocks due to the buy the dip crowd will not matter unless the bulls can push XLF above 54.28, and/or VIX below 17.00.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Price Extended; King Donnie Creates Global Angst on Greenland Land Grab

The stock market is off and stumbling this year with the SPX sitting at 6940 today on Martin Luther/Don/Rodney/Billie Jean King Day. I Have A Dream. US markets are closed today and will reopen tomorrow. The 5-month parade through the 6550-6950 range is tested at the top side. The neggie d spankdown is in progress on the daily chart above. The weekly chart is also negatively diverged across all indicators so a multi-week down move should begin. The SPX has wanted to roll over for the last month but the happy AI and rate-cut talk keeps the party going.

The daily chart above shows price dropping to the 20-day MA, now at 6909, and bouncing, but then finishing last week soggy into the 3-day weekend. Stocks are usually up the 2 days leading into a 3-day holiday weekend. This is why professional traders bot that low at the 20-day. Interestingly, today the new moon peaks for the month and stocks are usually soggy moving through the new moon. S&P futures are trading and down -80 points due to King Donnie's tantrum over taking Greenland.

The new moon is the darkest time of the month. Thus, an attack on Iran, or other covert missions, even law enforcement and troops going in to settle Minnesota, would be on the table. The overnight period is pitch black with the new moon so he who has superior night vision, wins. That would be the United States and/or law enforcement on the home front. There will likely be drama on tap in the Middle East and elsewhere over the next few days as a military units would take advantage of the new moon.

Anyhoo, the orange one said in a letter to Norway that he was pouting over not receiving the peace medal from the committee that is based in Norway so he seeks vengeance and revenge against Greenland. It's hilarious. No matter what he says, Donnie wants the rare earth elements in Greenland just like he wants the oil in Venezuela. He must be getting ready for World War III and Great Depression II, that he, humorously, is bringing on quicker himself. You have to laugh at it. Why not?

Futures are taking the pipe but today has to play out. King Donnie may spew something that soothes troubled minds, then again, he may inflame them worse. He will be in Davos this week, where the billionaires tell the millionaires how to live. Trumpski travels the world over the last year as Americans cannot afford to pay their bills or eat.

New money flows into the stock market to start a new year and that helps create buoyancy in equities. Everyone is back at work now as the 2026 grind begins. Nothing has changed. The daily chart remains in neggie d as the red lines show, the red rising wedge is bearish, stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback, and price is extended above the moving average ribbon needing a mean reversion lower. All that is a pile of dung.

The ADX is down to a pitiful 11 and the last inkling that the trend higher in stocks was an actual strong trend higher was back in September and early October. This last 5 months is a nothing burger so do not be surprised when it retraces.

The Aroon continues to show that the bullish party is in full swing. Bump. Whazzat? What? Did you feel that? (woman screams in the background) That bump? We hit an iceberg!! Quick, find a woman's coat and babushka to wear as a disguise and climb into a life raft to try and save your sorry arse. The green line remains overbot so all the bulls still believe stocks will go up forever. The Aroon red line remans oversold also believing that stocks will go up forever. Will they feel that way if the sogginess in the futures remain, or will they all run for the exits at once? Everyone remains super bullish as futures tank.

Everything on the chart above is negative and bearish. The Donnie drama may be the catalyst to push the whole pile of garbage over the hill. Money flow prints a lower low. Keystone looked at a few key metrics that gauge cyclical bull versus bear markets and those levels are from -7% to -9% lower, so it is feasible to see a full-blown correction of -10% or more coming over the next few weeks.

As a guesstimate of what is on tap, putting the Donnie Greenland temper tantrum drama aside, the expectation would be a drop in the SPX this week of a couple hundo points, then the week after a drop of about 200 to 400 points, then the week after that another drop of a hundo or 2 hundo points. Over the next 3 or 4 weeks, the expectation is for a drop in the SPX of from 200 to 1,000 points. That will surprise everyone since 100% of Wall Street analysts and strategists, like the Aroon above, say stocks will go up forever. The Donnie drama may be the catalyst that sends it all to Hell. S&P futures are almost down a hundo already.

So there should be lots of excitement ahead. Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short after volatility failed this morning. Stocks will continue falling unless the VIX falls back below 16.87. Bears need the VIX to remain above 16.87 while at the same time pulling XLF below 54.30. This will be enough to create and continue downside momentum. If UTIL, or DJU, falls through 1065, look out, a crash would be on the table, at the least, stocks are going to drop noticeably.

You see layoffs ramping higher again as Keystone explained in the Fall. Employees are sh*t-canned in October ahead of the holidays so as not to be accused of being a Scrooge. That is why layoffs were strong in October but slacked-off at the end of the year. Some job loss announcements in November-December were for prior layoffs but a few companies did can workers around the holidays not a good move. When business picks up again down the road, that company will have the reputation of being dirtbags that screw workers. As a boss, or owner, you have to be mindful that people have families and such, you treat them with respect and be honest with them, and now that it is January, you drop-kick them across the parking lot into the dumpster. Thank you for your service, now get the Hell out.

Here is an article by Keystone in 2019 explaining recessions to the millennials. The recession was on the come but kicked into gear with the COVID-19 pandemic, then it all was saved by Federal Reserve money-printing (monetary stimulus) and Congressional largess sending checks out to people (fiscal stimulus). Well, the party cash is spent and a recession is on the come again. A lot of you may have already experienced what is described in the article and others can imagine what may be in store for them this month. If you are charging all your time to a billable number on the timecard to projects, you are fine, if you are charging overhead on your time slip, you are toast. Ask the boss for other duties or tasks if you are not busy; that may be enough for him to put down the scythe when he walks past your cubicle this month. 

Clueless Millennials Must Prepare Financially, Mentally and Emotionally for the Coming Recession; A PSA (Public Service Announcement) for Millennials Explaining the Ugly Realities of Economic Recession.

The Federal Reserve chairman reality television show continues. Rick Reider was kissing Donnie's butt over the weekend still vying for the job. Trump says he wants kiss-*ss Hasssett to stay at the Whitehouse that is a surprise but it may be more baby games. Hassett quickly agrees with his master. Hit me harder, daddy. The reason Trumpski attacked Powell is because he knows that the Fed is not going to lower rates at the end of the month, so he is stirring the pot to try and move the Fed that way. Isn't it sickening stuff? Drama from the 80-year old orange-headed baby man-child.

Now Trumpski is asking Dictator Putin to join the peace process in Gaza. The hits keep coming. Hilarious stuff. Donnie says hey Vlad, kill a few more women and children and then stop over so we can discuss peace and rebuilding in Gaza, then you can get back to killing some more women and children, and do not forget to target the elderly, too. What happened to ending the Ukraine War in 24 hours? That was a year ago. It was lies. Jackass talk.

All of you young folks will have your own song for the coming troubled times. Back in the early 1980's recession, the worst economic times since the Great Depression, we adopted The River. To this day, it cannot help but bring a tear to the eye. So many lives hurt and destroyed during that recession. Those memories come back to haunt me, they haunt me like a curse. All those things that seemed so important, they just vanish into the air. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added on 1/20/26 at 2:32 PM EST: SPX drops to 6796 a 67-handle. Whoopsies, daisies.

CAT Caterpillar Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; CAT Is About to Get Bulldozed

CAT is about to get bulldozed. Isn't it Ironic, as Alanis would sing, that investors are picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer nowadays and with CAT, they are picking up nickels in front of a Caterpillar dozer?

Price makes the higher high and all the chart indicators are negatively diverged. The RSI and stochastics are overbot agreeable to a pullback. Price has violated the upper band so the middle band at 532 is on the table and lower band at 406, both rising.

It is odd because every construction project, house, swimming pool, parking lot, pond, park, skyscraper, anything, starts with a hole in the ground dug by equipment made by Caterpillar, Deere, Cummins, Case, Ford, Kabuto, etc.... If CAT is topping-out, maybe most of the fun is already priced into the stock? It had a huge run and it is just a basic industrial company.

Okay, this makes sense; look at the monthly. The MACD and perhaps RSI on the monthly chart, and histogram, are squeezing out tiny higher highs, so after the multi-week selloff occurs, she will likely come back up on the monthly basis to match the highs again, say, in February or March. You do not have to guess; simply watch the charts.

Lots of charts have the same sick set-up. CAT should begin the down move now and fall into a multi-week slide lower. CAT is about to get declawed. Never do that to a cat since that is like getting your fingernails ripped out of your fingers. If your cat is scratching your furniture and you do not like that, then find a new good home for the animal, since you are obviously an *sshole.

Keystone has played CAT a lot over the years long and short but has not for the last few years. Obviously, the play is short going forward. The daily chart is in neggie d. Keystone may step in and begin shorting CAT tomorrow going forward for a few days/weeks. Time to go to Katmandu with Seger. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 1/19/26: They say nothing runs like a CAT and price pops to the 656 palindrome and finishes last week at the 646 palindrome. Let's see what the charts say. The daily remains in firm neggie d so it is agreeable to a spankdown here forward. On the weekly chart, the MACD line eeks out a tiny hair higher value but it is way up in nosebleed territory with nowhere to go but down. All other chart indicators remain neggie d. S&P futures are down big because of Donnie the drama queen so that may provide the catalyst to begin a big slide lower. The 2-hour chart is also topped out with neggie d. CAT was ready to fall and the Donnie drama will likely exacerbate the drop. Keystone is not in it long or short but obviously, short is the play going forward in the near and short term. Interestingly, Cummins may have another week or two of buoyancy remaining before it tops out. You would think that it would be in lock-step with CAT (the diesel engines go into the CAT machines). Au contraire, Pierre. People used to say that a lot a few decades ago but you never here it anymore. Someone may boast about a subject and profess that his comments are true and correct, but someone else, like Keystone, will step forward with an index finger pointing skyward, and proclaim, "Au contraire, Pierre." Keystone has a friend, he has not seen in a few years, but his name is Pierre, but comically, his family has zero connection to France, they simply liked the name Pierre, but his whole life, to this day probably, people ask him if he is French. Anyhoo, CMI and CAT should move together but are not. That hints that companies need the CAT earth-moving equipment for infrastructure build-out coming in the springtime, sending stocks higher, but in addition, Cummins receives an extra boost because the data centers want the diesel engines. They are selling like hotcakes. Typically, for a plant, especially a critical plant producing a special chemical, or resin, or plastic, anything, it will have back-up generators in case power is lost. Yes, those are typically diesel motors used as back-up. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot that is why we are not invited to any holiday parties, the data centers likely want the Cummins diesel engines for back-up if the juice is lost at their new fancy schmancy data centers. A lot of money is being spent on that AI garbage and you are the sucker paying the higher electric bills to make the elite class richer.

MTZ Mastec Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Mastec Is About to Wreck

Lots of charts are taking on the same troubled look. MTZ is Mastec that is in the residential and commercial building industry another infrastructure, utility and data center stock. Price makes a nigher high but the chart indicators are all negatively diverged (red lines) so it is time for a multi-week spankdown.

MTZ is overbot agreeable to a pullback and the red rising wedge is another negative. The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band at 205 and rising is on the table as well as the lower band at 178 and rising.

Keystone traded MTZ long several years ago but has not played it long or short in recent years. It is an ugly stock so likely best to take the money and head on down the road to different opportunities. Jesse Welles is a hell of a young talent. He adds his two-cents to the ICE shooting drama. Good vs Ice. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 1/19/26: MTZ takes a wild ride last week exploring the low at 218 and high at 249. That is a thrust move higher so give it a week but the weekly chart remains fully negatively diverged. Take the opportunity to get out. S&P futures are down big because of Donnie the drama queen so that may provide the catalyst to begin a big slide lower. Keystone is not in it long or short but obviously, short is the play going forward in the near and short term.

APH Amphenol Weekly Chart; Double-Top; Overbot; Negative Divergence; If Long Amphenol, You May Need Alcohol

APH  is another hot darling in the stock market these days. She's passed around like a bowl of macadamia nuts. Lots of folks are dancing with pretty Amphenol. After she stumbles adn falls, investors are going to need alcohol.

APH is a double-top, or M-top right now. Price prints matching highs so the indicators can be assessed and the neggie d is glaring. APH is topped-out and should begin falling for several weeks. Amphenol provides power applications so it must be another utility and chip cooling play. The buyers believe in it bigtime with solid buying for the last month. It is an ugly chart.

Maybe those heavy buyers know something special about the stock? Let's take a look at the daily chart. The daily chart is not impressive staggering sideways like a drunk through Times Square last night. APH has been chopping sideways since October trying to make an up or down decision.

Keystone has never played APH long or short and likely will not. It is probably best to take the money and run, like the Steve Miller Band, if long. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 1/19/26: It was wall to wall attention on Amphenol last week. APH thrusts higher with an orgy move due to the happy talk now at 154. Nothing has changed but give it a week or so to absorb the thrust move higher last week. S&P futures are down big because of Donnie the drama queen so that may provide the catalyst to begin a big slide lower. Keystone is not in it long or short but short is the play going forward in the near and short term. Give it a few days or week or so to breathe.

FIX Comfort Systems Weekly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Comfort Is About to Become Uncomfortable

Keystone does not know FIX from Shinola. The fix is in. Comfort Systems provides mechanical and electrical systems engineering and construction. Traders must believe that the AI chips and data centers will need a lot of cooling so everyone jumped on the FIX bandwagon. But it looks like the game is fixed.

What a stock from 150 to over 1K in a couple years, a +600% gain! A lot of people made a lot of money. The neggie d spankdown in early December led to the rout to the downside with traders locking in profits (huge selling volume candlestick). But price recovers over the last month, probably on AI hype, those of you in this ticker probably know the reasons, and another matching price high is printed.

The red lines show ongoing neggie d; nothing has changed so another smackdown should begin that starts a multi-week slide lower. The top band was violated so a trip to the middle band at 890 and rising is on the table and the lower band at 690 and rising sharply.

If you made money in FIX, take the dough and exit stage right. Didn't Emperor Jensen say late last week that the new Rubin chip does not overheat like prior chips? Sounds like the cooling demands are lessened.

Keystone does not own FIX long or short and never played it, and likely will not. Whoever needed a furnace got one for this winter so Comfort may be sitting around, waiting for April and May when everyone wants their air conditioning unit serviced, before they feel comfortable. If you are long FIX, you will feel uncomfortable going forward, like wearing jeans that are too tight. Tight jeans are like the current status of the Whitehouse construction. No ball room. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday, 1/19/26: FIX benefits like nearly all stocks last week on a happy start to the year with plenty of happy talk. Give the move a few days or week or so to settle but the same set-up will appear in the charts. S&P futures are down big because of Donnie the drama queen so that may provide the catalyst to begin a big slide lower. Keystone is not in it long or short but short is the play going forward in the near and short term.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence

The SPX recovers from another downdraft after Emperor Jensen proclaims that AI is the best thing since sliced bread. The last candlestick shows the all-time high at 6978 and the all-time closing high at 6966. Price did not have to come up for another higher high. The SPX was already neggie d in the 2-hour timeframe. Huh? What is this language he speaks?

The maroon lines show the top on Wednesday receiving the neggie d spankdown but as mentioned, the AI hype talk stick-saves stocks. Once the technical breakdown occurs, the index or ticker is toast but if news hits the tape, that must be priced-in to the chart. Charts only price-in everything known about a stock, including all the trading by insiders, up to the minute. When news hits the wires, that is something new that the chart must handle and digest.

The 2-hour handled the happy talk on Friday and the last candlestick was already becoming soggy. The red lines show price making the higher highs, so the chart indicators can be reviewed to see if negative divergence exists so you can call the top. It is. Just like Wednesday so the expectation is for stocks to move lower out of the gate tomorrow and in the week ahead but, as mentioned, if happy news hits the tape, that may extend the joy another couple days. Conversely, if negative news hits the tape, the stock market turd will be immediately flushed.

King Donnie will probably stand in front of the cameras between 3 PM EST and 6 PM EST today before the S&P futures begin trading to try and grease the skids for the bulls in the week ahead.

Everyone is bullish on stocks. The rampant complacency is proven by the low put/calls. The 2-hour is topped-out. Let the festivities begin. Bob Weir kicked the bucket. LSD sales will never be the same. He wrote some great songs; an excellent musician, guitarist, singer, and songwriter. Let's have some Sugar Magnolia on a Sunday morning. Come on gang, jump in the van, let's head down to the concert and jam all day. Pass the bowl; gimme a light. Tie-dye tee shirt sales will never be the same. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added on 1/20/26 at 2:32 PM EST: SPX drops to 6796 a 67-handle. Whoopsies, daisies.

SPX S&P 500 and CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Charts; Significant Stock Market Top At Hand Due to Rampant Complacency, Fearlessness, and Bullish Euphoria

The US stock market remains at a historic top but refuses to relent. The holiday cheer, ongoing AI hype and rate-cut talk start 2026 with the SPX printing a new all-time record high at 6978.36, call it 6978, and an all-time closing high at 6966.28, call it 6966, both on Friday 1/9/26. Can't Believe We're Here. The New Year's party continues. However, it is the same story in recent weeks and months.

The bullish euphoria and rampant complacency and fearlessness is verified by the low put/calls; the CPC now down to 0.75. No one believes that stocks can ever go down again. The top is at hand in the days ahead. The Uber driver, shoeshine boy, doorman, and programmer that just got laid off that is still wearing a fleece vest with the company logo, all went triple-leveraged long (3x) placing their entire paychecks into the stock market because it always goes up.

The SPX is in the 5th month of the 6500-7000 range. That is about 7% so that has been the big fight through choppy slop for almost 5 months. Doesn't it feel like stocks are up a lot further? It is up, down, up, down, up......... and next, down. Plan accordingly. Everyone is too bullish and overconfident; the boat is loaded to one side.

The green circles show the bottoms in stocks and the red circles show the tops. For many years, the 1.20 signals the bottoms and about 0.80 signaled the tops. The lower range moves lower in recent years so it is more like 0.75, where price is right now, ringing the bell. Note that the last legitimate bottom in stocks over the last year is the April bottom. People panicked running from the burning stock market so that is when you took their shares off their hands in an accumulation phase. Now you are in a distribution phase.

The CPC tagged 1.12 at the end of 2025 helping the bulls keep stocks joyous into the new year but there was never any panic or fear created. The complacency has been signaling an important and likely major top since the Fall but Emperor Jensen runs to a camera and says, "buy chips," and the crowd goes wild. This top and the economic times currently are a special breed.

The stick of dynamite that is about to blow gets a bit longer; maybe that means when she blows it will be a bigger blast? Everyone in the stock market is bullish. Further, as human nature dictates, they also believe that there will be time to get out if stocks should happen to sell off, but they do not think this will happen anyway. Can you imagine the level of panic and fear that can develop when stocks start moving south? Talk about momentum. Everyone would run for the exit at once. It will be fun.

There has not been a true 'Black" day yet. October was a very good candidate but the AI hype and rate-cut excitement carried the month. There have been a few mini-black days but no biggie yet and that would most definitely remain on the table more so now with the put/calls collapsing again. It is the second full week of trading on tap so everyone is back on the trading floor now ready for the festivities to begin.

Watch your wallet. If you are new to trading, get out and sit in cash for a couple months and simply watch the market and see what happens, otherwise, you are jumping into a buzzsaw and will receive your head on a platter.

Utilities failed last week but the bulls saved the day. As per the Keybot the Quant algorithm, if UTIL, or DJU, lose 1063, the stock market is in serious trouble. If the VIX then spikes above 16.89 it is lights out; the Wall Street blood and carnage will begin. Bulls simply need to keep both metrics in their camp. The Supreme Court tariff decision, bank earnings, inflation data, Fed Speak, and of course ongoing AI hype will move markets this week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added on 1/20/26 at 2:32 PM EST: SPX drops to 6796 a 67-handle. Whoopsies, daisies.

Keybot the Quant Whipsaws Back to the Long Side

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant, whipsaws back to the long side at SPX 6940 after the opening bell this morning. The bulls goosed the utilities out of the gate and the stock market rout was on. The UTIL 1063 line in the sand remains in play with price ending the week at 1069 so stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side on Monday or sometime next week. The year is starting off with choppy pig slop like last year that can chew-up bulls and bears alike.

The SPX prints a new all-time high today, 1/9/26, at 6978 only 22 points from 7000. Keystone has his SPX 7K hat ready to go. Maybe he can wear it next week? The all-time closing high for the SPX is also today, 1/9/26, at 6966. The stock market bottom years ago was 666 and now we are at 6966.

The circus continues on Monday. The first week of January is up, so the month should be up according to the January barometer, and that should portend well for the year for stocks. Do not hang your hat on this stuff. Chips controlled the stock market this week (Emperor Jensen provided the boost pumping chips and storage stocks) and utes controlled the price action today.

Keybot the Quant

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side today after the opening bell at SPX 6916. The quant is fixated on utilities and volatility. Bulls need UTIL, or DJU, above 1063 or they are going to be in big trouble. Bears need to push VIX above 16.89 to prove that they got further game and can take stocks way lower. If UTIL remains below 1063, and VIX below 16.89, stocks will muddle along sideways with a slight downward bias. Eventually, one of them will flinch and reveal the path ahead. The jobs report and Supreme Court decision on the legality of tariffs will create drama tomorrow.

Keybot the Quant

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Utes Fail at 50-Week MA at 1063 Forecasting Major Trouble Ahead

The SPX, S&P 500 Index, the United States stock market, prints a new all-time record high today, 1/7/26, at 6965.69, call it 6966. Older folks remember the Summer of 69 and Bryan Adams the Canadian. 'Those were the best days of my life'. Toss me that 6-string. The all-time closing high is 6944.82, call it 6945, on 1/6/26, yesterday.

The euphoria from the holidays continues along with more AI hype, chip hype, Jensen hype, rate-cuts galore, QE as far as the eye can see, and more fiscal and monetary stimulus to fatten greedy wallets. Keystone opened his wallet the other day and moths flew out. He is the one with alligator arms when the waitress brings the bill. No one cares that the Santa Claus rally was a bust this year; it is bad news so no one wanted to report it.

Anyhoo, the chart above is the utilities. The markets remain Psycho with many cross currents but a major negative metric fell today; the UTIL, or DJU, 50-wk MA at 1063. 

The trap-door opens and utes fall through with UTIL dropping to 1048. The SPX falls from its record high at 6966 to 6920 a 46-point pullback. The utility trap-door tells you big trouble is on the way either coincidentally (right now) or within days or a few weeks (month or so) at most. Considering that the stock market has been playing games for 4 months with the topping action, it is about time for the turd to be flushed.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm is tracking utes as the top priority. Bulls need UTIL back above 1063 as fast as possible and they will have no worries with stocks rallying higher. Each day that the utilities remain below 1063, however, is another huge nail pounded into the bull coffin. If UTIL remains below 1063, and the SPX drops only a couple points to below 6919, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Pay attention tomorrow. No sleepin' on the job. It may be an exciting day.

There is a lot on the line tomorrow. It is fascinating to ponder that the all-time high today in the SPX may not be seen again for months or years. Sticking to the present, be very afraid going forward if you are long, and it may be time for you to begin clenching your buttocks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Evening at 5:44 PM EST: UTIL is goosed higher this morning to 1083 the bulls celebrating the launch sending the stock market higher to new all-time highs. UTIL faded as the session played out, dropping to 1069 so the same drama is on tap for Monday.

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

The SPX monthly chart is super important going forward since it is helpful in calling THE top. Keystone has posted it several times over the last few months describing the topping process. We are now on the fourth month that price has made a matching or higher high. Therefore, the chart indicators can be assessed for potential neggie d and top call.

All the chart indicators are negatively diverged (red lines) except for the MACD line. Remember last month was the same set-up, that did fail, but the happy year-end talk, rate-cuts on tap, more QE on tap, and ongoing AI hype, collude to keep stocks elevated into January. The MACD line is the only snake in the woodpile and it is at nosebleed levels with nowhere to go but down. It would be different if the MACD was at one or two-hundo heading higher (indicating that it may still have plenty of legs to go higher) instead of now where it is peaking now, in real-time, or will in a month or so if the MACD line still points higher on January 30th.

The RSI and stochastics are overbot open to a pullback on the monthly basis. The red rising wedge pattern is ominous since the collapses out of rising wedges can be quite dramatic and this is a monthly chart. Are you ready to flush this turd?

Price has violated the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-mth MA, at 6109, and rising, is on the table going forward on the monthly basis as well as the lower band at 5147 and rising. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon (10 MA above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 200) requiring a mean reversion lower.

The ADX verifies strong trends, up or down, in the market and the pink box shows the last strong trend, that was up, was in 2018. That is funny. ALL the price action since 2019 is considered to not be a strong trend even though new record highs are printed. Keystone mentions now and then that the last legitimate top in the stock market was 2015.

The price action from 2015 to now is Fantasyland on easy money. No one really knows what anything is worth anymore since the obscene money-printing and monetary and fiscal stimulus for many years has destroyed all price discovery. What is your house actually worth? What are your stocks worth? What is the car you bought actually worth? We will find out over the next couple years. Hint; none of this material garbage is worth what you think it is.

The all-time record high in the SPX, the S&P 500 Index, the United States stock market, is 6945.77 on 12/26/25 and the all-time closing high is 6932.05 on 12/24/25, bookending Christmas.

The Aroon green line shows that nearly every single bull believes that stocks will continue higher on the monthly basis. The red line shows that every single bear believes that stocks will go up forever. That is funny. The bears are unanimous that stocks will continue higher and more bullish than the bulls. It is funny.

The January candlestick just started so there is a lot of month yet to play out. The SPX daily and weekly charts continue to want to see a spankdown begin and last for several weeks. This scenario fits perfectly with the neggie d on the monthly chart above. If stocks start puking their guts out this month, the MACD line can easily go neggie d and that would lock-in THE top right now. Put that in your bong and smoke it.

If not, and the MACD can make it to Jan 30th with that slight upside, it tells you that THE top will be delayed by a month or so (say 2 to 6 weeks). So she is at the doorstep and there is a great likelihood that the pullback is now and THE major top for the US stock market is now.

When she dies, remember, this is a monthly chart, so you are talking long-term pain. Maybe a few months, or couple-three years, or longer. The stock market may languish for a decade or two ahead. The United States is a country of old people now so the demographics are not in our favor going forward and especially with young men that do not know which end of a shovel to hold.

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? That is easy. Sell, Mortimer, sell!!!  If you are new to trading and trying to get your sea legs, any long positions you own will likely lose money for several months forward. If you have enjoyed the easy stock market profits over the last 3 years, it would likely be prudent to exit stage left. February of last year Keystone told you it was like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. Honey, I'm home. Here we go again.

If you remain long with any individual stock, index or ETF, you are hoping for +5% or +10% of upside in the months ahead by taking on risk that you may lose from -10% to -80% on the downside. That is the definition of picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer. But every stock trader and investor decries Keystone calling him a charlatan and doomster. It is blasphemy to talk down the US stock market! 

Some of you, are holding VOO, and that is the same chart and technical analysis as the SPX in lock-step. Thus, if you are in VOO, do not fall under a voodoo spell and siren call to stay long. Watch that MACD line in the above chart like a hawk; it is going to tell you when the major top is in place and it should be anytime forward.

Everyone talks about the new bill creating lots of economic activity, and big tax refunds coming, and other happy talk. I would like to sell you this AI pie in the sky. And some H200 chips out of the trunk of my car. Plan accordingly, folks. It is going to be a lot of fun. Even if you stay long, at least take on a couple inverse ETF's to cover yourself with a loin cloth.

King Donnie is making trouble down in Venezuela Nam. He said he will 'run' Venezuela so he better get busy since the grocery store shelves are empty especially due to recent hoarding as tensions rose. People are hungry. Trumpski cannot lower US grocery store prices but now he is in the grocery store business in Venezuela stocking shelves. It is ridiculous.

It will be interesting to see how the S&P and oil futures trade this afternoon. At 6 PM EST, in 9 hours time (it is 9 AM EST here on the East Coast), futures will trade and provide the first grade of the orange head's aggression against Venezuela. No doubt, King Donnie will spew some news, that will be positive as he can make it, between 3 PM and 6 PM EST today, to try and goose the futures in a positive direction. Let the festivities begin.

Watch the utilities closely since a breach of UTIL 1062 (or DJU 1062) will send stocks to Hell. The 10-mth MA at 6457 is an early warning system that the market is in bigtime trouble. That is still a ways away. The 12-mth MA at 6344, and rising sharply, dictates whether stocks are in a cyclical bull or bear market. Are we in Venezuela Nam? Oh Lord, we're stuck in Lodi again. Time to pull out the old Vietnam protest songs. It brings back a lot of memories. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 1/5/26: The bulls rally stocks but oddly, utilities fail with UTIL dropping below 1063. That is odd so tomorrow will be interesting. UTIL recovers one point back above 1063 so watch it closely since it would create negativity. VIX is higher with stocks higher that only happens less than 10% of the time; more oddities. The SPX ran up to 6920 to tap into the gap left behind 4 days prior. Price is at 6902 and may still want to come up for a better fill but showing that respect to the top gap today is good enough and buttons-up the topside gaps. New money comes into the stock market to begin the year that is why the Santa Claus rally typically occurs from Christmas Eve through the first two trading days of the new year, today, and it falls short by about 8 SPX points so the Santa rally is Santy folly down marginally for those few days. Nothing has changed. The charts remain a piece of excrement. Maybe blow on the SPX and it should fall over. You can smell it coming. Friday morning. The US Monthly Jobs Report. 8:30 AM EST. Be there or be square. It is always a circus but now it will be a carnival spectacular, the Superbowl for analysts, strategists, traders, investors, and other boring eggheads. If you listen closely, you can hear the circus calliope.

Note Added on 1/20/26 at 2:32 PM EST: SPX drops to 6796 a 67-handle. Whoopsies, daisies.

SPX S&P 500 60 Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Bulls and Bears Battle for Short-Term Control of the Stock Market

The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is a key short-term bull/bear market indicator. Keystone posted this chart as it failed mid-month but the rate-cut happy talk, QE light, ongoing AI hype, holiday joy, the Santa rally on tap, and euphoric optimism and complacency reverse the failure and maintain the short-term bull market.

Price gaps higher on 12/22/25 and price comes down to fill the gap. There is a big gap left behind on top at 6910-6930. The bears may be smart to fill that now, tap on 6920, and then begin the descent, however, there is no time line on filling gaps. Maybe that gap up top does not get filled for a few years?

King Donnie is striking Venezuela and kidnapped Dictator Maduro and his wife under the guise of fighting a drug war. The crowd cheers for "Sunday Bloody Sunday." Red Rocks is a beautiful venue. Hopefully, Venezuela does not turn out like Libya when Gaddafi was ousted from power. Or another Vietnam quagmire. Venezuela Nam. There is a power vacuum created so time will tell to see how it is filled.

Trumpski says he will run Venezuela so let the quagmire begin. When asked who would run the country, Trump pointed to the people behind them. Marco Rubio had a look on his face like, "What's this we sh*t, white man?" There is no plan. King Donnie says his cabinet can run Venezuela remotely? What could possibly go wrong? He also throws the Nobel Peace Prize lady under the bus. She may have not adored, bowed and kneeled enough when in the presence of the bloviating orange head.

The new New York Mayor, Zohran Mamdani, that sounds like a magician's stage name (it is pronounced by thinking about dear ole Mom and King Donnie Trump; say Mom-Donnie, Mom-Donnie, and the name is easy to pronounce and you will not forget how to say it), is sworn into office on the Quran. That is funny since the US Constitution is in direct conflict with that book but at the same time he swore allegiance to the Constitution.

You have to laugh since no one has the guts to call a spade a spade, therefore, everyone deserves what they will receive. He is lying about one or the other; either he believes in the Quran or he believes in the US Constitution. What's it gonna be, buddy? Take your pick. Sounds like Paradise by the Dashboard Light. What's it gonna be, boy, yes or no? The book is happy talk in the beginning but then the pages turn into 'kill the infidel', 'kill the infidel', 'kill the infidel'. Good luck New York. 

In addition, it is perfectly acceptable to lie and deceive if the end result is promoting Islam. Taking the oath of office likely meant nothing to Mamdani. In the coming months, it will be known if he is governing as per the US Constitution, or, the Quaran. One thing is for certain; Mamdani would win a 'sh*t-eatin' grin' contest hands-down. He has that phony smirk, or sh*t-eating grin, locked in, while placing a hand on his heart, pretending he cares. The politicians are but bit actors. The futures will react to the weekend drama in Venezuela, New York, and elsewhere on Sunday night at 6 PM EST.

The SPX came down to tap on the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute at 6834, and bounced. The support held on the bear's first try. There will be more stabs at the 200 by the bears to see if they can weaken it enough to fall through.

SPX 6834 is the magic number. Write it on a post-it note with a Sharpie and stick it on your forehead. The LOD (low of day) is 6824.31 so write that on a sticky note and place it on your forehead. Stocks will likely be in a lot of trouble if 6824 fails. If so, the gap down at 6740-6760 will be on tap next.

Keystone was given a 'SPX 6.9K' hat that appropriately describes current conditions (see below). The screen-printer is hard at work on the 'SPX 7K' and 'SPX 7000' hats with over 10,000 already in stock in cardboard boxes ready to send to Wall and Broad. What could possibly go wrong?

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up so the breach of 6800 opens the door to 7200. The SPX monthly chart will tell if this will occur, or not (the SPX may not hit 7200 for a few years; time is not a factor). All Wall Street analysts are forecasting SPX 7100-8100 for this year with no one predicting a down year (they do not because they are trying to attract money into their funds from Joe Sixpack and talking positively attracts more money than talking negatively; do you want to be with the group that is laughing and having fun talking positively (even naively) or the group that is listening to Gloomy Gus and Negative Nancy?). Keystone is predicting SPX 5220 for the end of the year and the stock market will likely drop far lower than that before recovering.

Taking it step by step, watch SPX 6834 since it tells you if the US stock market slips into a short-term bear market (that could develop into an intermediate and long-term bear). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 1/5/26: The bulls rally stocks but oddly, utilities fail with UTIL dropping below 1063. That is odd so tomorrow will be interesting. UTIL recovers one point back above 1063 so watch it closely since it would create negativity. VIX is higher with stocks higher that only happens less than 10% of the time; more oddities. The SPX ran up to 6920 to tap into the gap left behind 4 days prior. Price is at 6902 and may still want to come up for a better fill but showing that respect to the top gap today is good enough and buttons-up the topside gaps. New money comes into the stock market to begin the year that is why the Santa Claus rally typically occurs from Christmas Eve through the first two trading days of the new year, today, and it falls short by about 8 SPX points so the Santa rally is Santy folly down marginally for those few days. Nothing has changed. The charts remain a piece of excrement. Maybe blow on the SPX and it should fall over. You can smell it coming. Friday morning. The US Monthly Jobs Report. 8:30 AM EST. Be there or be square. It is always a circus but now it will be a carnival spectacular, the Superbowl for analysts, strategists, traders, investors, and other boring eggheads. If you listen closely, you can hear the circus calliope.

Keybot the Quant Logs Another Banner Year Up +35% Outperforming the Benchmark SPX by Over 2x; SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart Shows the Stock Market Turns in 2025

The SPX chart shows the Keybot the Quant stock market turns in 2025. Equities took the pipe at the start of the year collapsing to the April low. The AI hype, rate-cut joy, QE light, rich people still spending money enjoying the wealth effect, and other happy talk, sends stocks higher with an above-average finish to the year for the SPX up +16.4%.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program gains +27% and controls the actual trading that generated +35% outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by more than 2x.

The funny thing about 2025 is how many common folks, with money in the stock market, brag and boast about the +16% return this year but when asked what they thought when they had lost -20% to -30% of their money in April, most are clueless. Some do not even know, or remember, that stocks had crashed in the springtime and others immediately proclaim that the stock market always goes up, as it proved in 2025. Wall Street trained the peons well.

For many decades, the US demographics were in our favor. Families kept expanding and so did technology and job opportunities. Productivity drives stock market gains. America is now an old folk's home. The senior Americans are the ones with all the dough in the stock market and that money will be needed for medical bills as the body gives out.

Further, many parents are helping their children get by in life and that will pull money from the market as the years roll forward. A barista at Starbucks, that they should call Tenbucks because that is what you usually spend when you walk in, is not socking away a couple grand per month into the US stock market going forward, as the wealthy folks pull money out.

Think twice about the standard mantra that stocks always go up going forward. Wouldn't it be interesting if the current highs in the SPX at 6900+, or 6900-7250, serve as a top for the next couple decades or more?

Bulls are in charge to begin 2026 but watch UTIL 1062 (utilities) and XRT 84.97 (retail stocks) since stocks will fall apart if either one is breached; big trouble if both give way.

Keybot the Quant only sees 1's and 0's so hopefully the emotionless robot will lead the way to another successful year ahead regardless of stock market direction. It does not matter which way the stock market goes, up or down; all that matters is that you are on the right side of the trade. Happy New Year and Good Luck in 2026. All is quiet on New Year's Day.... under a blood-red sky..... New Year's Day by U2.