SPX S&P 500 60 Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Bulls and Bears Battle for Short-Term Control of the Stock Market

The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute chart is a key short-term bull/bear market indicator. Keystone posted this chart as it failed mid-month but the rate-cut happy talk, QE light, ongoing AI hype, holiday joy, the Santa rally on tap, and euphoric optimism and complacency reverse the failure and maintain the short-term bull market.

Price gaps higher on 12/22/25 and price comes down to fill the gap. There is a big gap left behind on top at 6910-6930. The bears may be smart to fill that now, tap on 6920, and then begin the descent, however, there is no time line on filling gaps. Maybe that gap up top does not get filled for a few years?

King Donnie is striking Venezuela and kidnapped Dictator Maduro and his wife under the guise of fighting a drug war. The crowd cheers for "Sunday Bloody Sunday." Red Rocks is a beautiful venue. Hopefully, Venezuela does not turn out like Libya when Gaddafi was ousted from power. Or another Vietnam quagmire. Venezuela Nam. There is a power vacuum created so time will tell to see how it is filled.

Trumpski says he will run Venezuela so let the quagmire begin. When asked who would run the country, Trump pointed to the people behind them. Marco Rubio had a look on his face like, "What's this we sh*t, white man?" There is no plan. King Donnie says his cabinet can run Venezuela remotely? What could possibly go wrong? He also throws the Nobel Peace Prize lady under the bus. She may have not adored, bowed and kneeled enough when in the presence of the bloviating orange head.

The new New York Mayor, Zohran Mamdani, that sounds like a magician's stage name (it is pronounced by thinking about dear ole Mom and King Donnie Trump; say Mom-Donnie, Mom-Donnie, and the name is easy to pronounce and you will not forget how to say it), is sworn into office on the Quran. That is funny since the US Constitution is in direct conflict with that book but at the same time he swore allegiance to the Constitution.

You have to laugh since no one has the guts to call a spade a spade, therefore, everyone deserves what they will receive. He is lying about one or the other; either he believes in the Quran or he believes in the US Constitution. What's it gonna be, buddy? Take your pick. Sounds like Paradise by the Dashboard Light. What's it gonna be, boy, yes or no? The book is happy talk in the beginning but then the pages turn into 'kill the infidel', 'kill the infidel', 'kill the infidel'. Good luck New York. 

In addition, it is perfectly acceptable to lie and deceive if the end result is promoting Islam. Taking the oath of office likely meant nothing to Mamdani. In the coming months, it will be known if he is governing as per the US Constitution, or, the Quaran. One thing is for certain; Mamdani would win a 'sh*t-eatin' grin' contest hands-down. He has that phony smirk, or sh*t-eating grin, locked in, while placing a hand on his heart, pretending he cares. The politicians are but bit actors. The futures will react to the weekend drama in Venezuela, New York, and elsewhere on Sunday night at 6 PM EST.

The SPX came down to tap on the 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute at 6834, and bounced. The support held on the bear's first try. There will be more stabs at the 200 by the bears to see if they can weaken it enough to fall through.

SPX 6834 is the magic number. Write it on a post-it note with a Sharpie and stick it on your forehead. The LOD (low of day) is 6824.31 so write that on a sticky note and place it on your forehead. Stocks will likely be in a lot of trouble if 6824 fails. If so, the gap down at 6740-6760 will be on tap next.

Keystone was given a 'SPX 6.9K' hat that appropriately describes current conditions (see below). The screen-printer is hard at work on the 'SPX 7K' and 'SPX 7000' hats with over 10,000 already in stock in cardboard boxes ready to send to Wall and Broad. What could possibly go wrong?

Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up so the breach of 6800 opens the door to 7200. The SPX monthly chart will tell if this will occur, or not (the SPX may not hit 7200 for a few years; time is not a factor). All Wall Street analysts are forecasting SPX 7100-8100 for this year with no one predicting a down year (they do not because they are trying to attract money into their funds from Joe Sixpack and talking positively attracts more money than talking negatively; do you want to be with the group that is laughing and having fun talking positively (even naively) or the group that is listening to Gloomy Gus and Negative Nancy?). Keystone is predicting SPX 5220 for the end of the year and the stock market will likely drop far lower than that before recovering.

Taking it step by step, watch SPX 6834 since it tells you if the US stock market slips into a short-term bear market (that could develop into an intermediate and long-term bear). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Evening, 1/5/26: The bulls rally stocks but oddly, utilities fail with UTIL dropping below 1063. That is odd so tomorrow will be interesting. UTIL recovers one point back above 1063 so watch it closely since it would create negativity. VIX is higher with stocks higher that only happens less than 10% of the time; more oddities. The SPX ran up to 6920 to tap into the gap left behind 4 days prior. Price is at 6902 and may still want to come up for a better fill but showing that respect to the top gap today is good enough and buttons-up the topside gaps. New money comes into the stock market to begin the year that is why the Santa Claus rally typically occurs from Christmas Eve through the first two trading days of the new year, today, and it falls short by about 8 SPX points so the Santa rally is Santy folly down marginally for those few days. Nothing has changed. The charts remain a piece of excrement. Maybe blow on the SPX and it should fall over. You can smell it coming. Friday morning. The US Monthly Jobs Report. 8:30 AM EST. Be there or be square. It is always a circus but now it will be a carnival spectacular, the Superbowl for analysts, strategists, traders, investors, and other boring eggheads. If you listen closely, you can hear the circus calliope.