CRB and GTX Commodity Indexes Daily Charts Explain Trumpflation

King Donnie brags about the US economy and in the next sentence bloviates that he wants a full percentage cut in rates; it is economics idiocy. He is a business idiot as much of the country consider him a business genius. Pause for laughter. Donnie's dad gave him a half billion dollars ($460 million) 40 years ago and he was lucky to have 1 to 3 billion as he made his first election bid when he lied saying he was worth over 10 billion. That is a business idiot. He is lucky he did not lose it all. If someone gave you a half a billion dollars, how much do you think you would have 40 years later?

His dad even opened the doors to Manhattan real estate and also partially bailed Donnie out of the Taj Mahal and casino bankruptcy fiasco when he screwed middle-class workers promising them the world but then throwing them out in the street and chuckling about it. Those are things you never forget. Anyone under 50 years old does not understand Donnie's past; they consider him to be smart in business because of The Apprentice television show. The orange head now has about 4 to 6 billion due to his grift and foray into meme coins and other likely short-lived money gimmicks over the last couple years. The election saved him financially.

King Donnie now claims he has defeated inflation. Boy, is he in for a surprise going forward. Starting at the beginning, Trump is reelected in November 2024, despite the 1/6/21 debacle when he sat in the Oval Office refusing to stop the Capitol Hill riot instead happily cheering Americans as they hurt and maimed one another and the police. Go figure. Anyhoo, Trump bragged that he was the Tariff Man during the campaign. Tariffs are inflationary. If elected, traders knew inflation would rise since the only significant action he could immediate take when entering office was tariffs via the garbage executive order nonsense.

(Executive orders by the president were only meant for declaring holidays and other such small matters but that changed when Emperor Obama was in office ruling by a 'pen and a phone'; King Trump followed Emperor Obama jumping on the executive order bandwagon reversing Obama's decrees; King Biden enters office and reverses Trump's executive order proclamations; now King Donnie is back in office and reversed Biden's executive orders and the next president in 3 years will likely reverse King Donnie's executive orders; this is not what the Founding Fathers wanted; it is a garbage authoritarian way to run the country; everything, including tariffs, should go through the regular Congressional process so it can be debated from all sides like the so-called 'big beautiful bill; not anymore since anyone elected president, demopublican or republocrat, now considers themselves a king and entitled to rule by executive order decrees; isn't it sickening?; it is enough to make you puke.)

Thus, traders front-run the inflation and it shows in the CRB and GTX charts above. Traders anticipate inflation because they know tariffs are coming. The CRB Index is made up of crude oil, natty gas, gasoline, cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar, aluminum, copper, gold, nickel, silver, corn, soybeans, wheat, live cattle and lean hogs. Ditto the GTX holding the same commodities also platinum. These products are needed as raw materials or serve as vital energy providers. Obviously, the jump in oil and gold have a lot to do with the commodities moving higher.

Overall inflation consists of goods inflation, that the charts above represent, and services inflation. The big driver of inflation during bozo Biden's years in office was mainly due to a sharp rise in services inflation. The wealthy class, made filthy rich from the Federal Reserve's obscene multi-decades of money-printing, continue spending money keeping the economy afloat. The split between rich and poor has not been this great since the 1970's when a standard mantra among common folks was, "F&#$ the rich." History repeats. Great music came out of the 1960's and 1970's strife. California Dreamin'. In 2025, the wealthy need people to carry their bags, clean their toilets and dirty sheets, drive them around, and cook their food so services exploded higher after the COVID-19 pandemic subsided.

Not now. Since late last year, services inflation is in a sideways funk with a slightly downwards bias. This means services are neither creating or subtracting from overall inflation currently. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to the fun parties, thus, you must look to goods inflation to get a gauge on where overall inflation is headed.

After the hoopla from the election and the holidays, demand typically slumps a little and goods inflation drops. Oil falls helping send the indexes lower. This gives President Trump the window now to claim credit for lower inflation due to his policies that he proclaims are already having a miraculous impact on the US economy. Of course he does; he is a politician.

The inflation data lags so just as Americans are complaining about inflation from last Fall into the first few months of the year, now the data is showing happy lower inflation due to the drop in goods inflation from February through April. However, the inflation sh*t will likely start hitting the fan for the inflation data going forward that will now be incorporating the rise in goods inflation from April to present. It is not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science.

Fed Chairman Powell receives the daily beatings from King Trump that wants the money-printing to start in full force to goose the economy through the mid-term elections. Isn't it nauseating what the country has become? A bunch of grifter politicians only concerned about the upcoming elections and how they can maintain power.

Trump does not care about the debt and potential for a major reset in the US economy; he wants to spend money. This is likely the main reason for the Trump-Musk rift. Musk stupidly believed that Trump was serious when he said he wants to lower the US debt and deficits. Elon learned the lesson that no politician plans on worrying about the debt until they have to and then they will have an emergency meeting that slashes benefits for Americans. They do not care. 60% of Americans did not want taxpayer money spent on the military parade today but Donnie does not care; it is his birthday party. It is easy to spend other people's money; that is what Donnie has done all his life. Powell has been walking a tightrope concerning potential rate hikes and cuts since last Fall. To his credit, he remains on balance.

Powell will likely be correct in holding off on rate cuts since the inflation data will likely start overshooting going forward. Comically, people may start talking about rate hikes again. It will be interesting to see inflation data rise and how the president handles the new emergence of Trumpflation going forward. As inflation bumps higher again, rates will likely bump higher and stocks will probably turn soggy for the coming months. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Happy 250th to the Army. Keystone remembers the Green Beret movie, starring the Duke. Everyone went to the movie theater back then to see it in the late 60's and early 70's a time now forgotten by Americans. The Green Beret Peterson, that was going to be the father for an orphan boy, got killed by a snare trap as the US Army Special Forces unit left the jungle. His foot snared and he was flung upside down and impaled on a camouflaged wall of wooden stakes. When the Green Berets returned from the dangerous mission, the orphan boy could not find Peterson and of course John Wayne's character stepped-in. There was not a dry eye in the theater. Great respect to the folks serving and the vets and the fallen soldiers. Only older people and people in the service now think like this anymore. Hand to hand combat, if stuck in that situation, is brutal. Ballad of the Green Berets.