Bitcoin is oscillating sideways for the last month as the weekly chart tops out. Clearly, price makes the new high and all the chart indicators are sloping downwards, negative divergence, so bitcoin is cooked on the weekly basis. She falls for a couple weeks but the bitcoin bulls are tripping over each other to buy the dip. There it is! It pulled back ten bucks; buy, buy buy!!!
Lots of traders are likely losing confidence in the long-term expectations for the stock market. America's demographic is getting older and they will be withdrawing lots of money from the stock market going forward. The young dude working at Starbucks and gal waiting tables at the Olive Garden are not stepping in to buy stocks. Gold and bitcoin have become faves of the investment crowd since they think these investments will be better if things fall apart. In truth, nothing is safe and a couple decades of Fed phony money has distorted price discovery so no one truly knows what anything is worth anymore be it stocks, bonds, real estate, art, anything.
Anyhoo, the red lines show the neggie d that should slap price far lower than the last couple weeks but the worries about stagflation and King Donnie's Trade and Tariff War has investors still wanting to own a little crypto and yellow metal.
Price has violated the upper band so the middle band at 94.1K is on the table. Look at that drop in volume (blue line). Bitcoin has the appearance that it is floating higher on hopes, dreams, wishes, and promises. As the old saying goes, "wish in one hand, sh*t in the other, watch and see, which one fills up faster."
Bitcoin is extended above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. The chart pattern is a double-top, or M-top; close enough for gov't work. The ADX clearly shows that the joyous rally in bitcoin in late 2023 into 2024 was a strong trend higher but that petered out about Labor Day last year. Then, bitcoin took off higher again and that was labeled a strong trend higher in December but it petered out in March. Is the third time a charm? No, it is not. Bitcoin rallies again to peak a couple weeks ago but note that the ADX is not moving above the 28-30 area. The current move higher in the digital currency is NOT a strong trend higher like the previous two rallies.
The Aroon shows 92% of the bitcoin bulls, let's just say all the bitcoin bulls, remain bullish bitcoin. Thank you, Captain Obvious. The Aroon verifies the euphoric optimism currently at play with bitcoin. Interestingly, over the last month, the bitcoin bulls are coming out of the woodwork and starting to stretch their arms. About 70% of the bitcoin bears are now thinking that bitcoin may become weaker going forward and roll over.
The bitcoin game depends on the bulls. The bulls remain super optimistic about bitcoin and this unbridled enthusiasm supports the digital currency. However, that bitcoin mettle will likely be tested over the next month. As bitcon begins dropping, like a prom dress, will the bulls remain bullish or will they jump ship looking for greener pastures?
Keystone is short bitcoin for the last couple weeks with the trade really going not much of anywhere. Perhaps that neggie d above will kick-in harder this week. Prior charts and the one above show that the set-up ahead is stocks down, dollar up, gold down, and bitcoin down. Of course, keep an ear open for comments from the Fed or Trump administration that will help, or hurt, crypto. A negative news bite will serve as a catalyst to probably kick the negativity into high gear.
The daily chart is not telling much but price is coming up for the back kiss at the 20-day MA at 106633. The bottom band was violated so a move up to the middle band was on the table and occurs. Price tagged 106409 last week and now sits at 106308. Bounce or die from 106.6K; that is something you can watch. A move through 106.6K will open the door to 111.3K. A failure here will likely kick-in the downside bigtime on the weekly basis.
Fantastic Cat is several songwriters that got together in a band and are getting air play now and a following with Oh Man! The vid spoofing a Pocono Talent Show is funny. So Glad You Made It. They are in Da Burgh in 2 weeks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Saturday, 6/14/25: Bitcoin slumps to a 102K handle last Thursday but the bulls buy it up to end the week at a 105K handle now trading a hair under 105K. Bitcoin slips a modest -0.6% last week and should begin its multi-week decline due to the neggie d on the charts. Gold and bitcoin remain the two favorite sons as Trump's Trade and Tariff War, Fed drama, and now the Israel-Iran War create angst. The expectation is for bitcoin to drop for several weeds forward but everyone is likely waiting for the Powell show on Wednesday. Note how price came up last week to challenge the 20-day MA at 106.3K last week and popped up through with force. Bitcoin bulls were throwing confetti and cheering as price popped to the 110.5K high for the week. Alas, bitcoin rolls over and loses the 20-day MA on Wednesday and remains under to end the week. If bitcoin cannot get above 106.3K, it got nothing. If it does, it will likely pop to test 112K and make a bounce or die decision. It is reasonable to expect bitcoin to be sub 100K and perhaps a lot lower by the end of the month.
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