Monday, June 17, 2024

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Potential Island Reversal Pattern



The last few days of drama have played out so the SPX is set up for the top again in the 2-hour time frame. She should receive the neggie d spankdown and begin trailing lower now. The SOX and XLK charts are set up the same as the SPX. As she begins to retreat, the daily and weekly charts will tell if the multi-week downslide has begun. There still may be some chop for a few days as the SPX tops out and the Juneteenth holiday on hump day creates more drama (stocks tend to be buoyant and bullish into holidays).

The red lines clearly show universal negative divergence. Price prints a matching and higher high while all the chart indicators are sloping lower and out of gas. There is not even any fumes remaining in the tank so a neggie d spankdown should begin in the 2-hour time frame. Are you ready or are you holdin' a bag?

The green circle shows price on an island after the gap-up move. There is even a palm tree on the island. Thus, an island reversal pattern is on the table where price will fall to 5410, receiving the neggie d spankdown, and then fall completely through that gap to 5375 in a heartbeat. The other path is for price to simply deteriorate lower and fill the gap at 5375-5410. It will be fun to watch.

The noon candlestick just started throwing off the neggie d so let that develop and then check the new candlestick at 2 PM EST to verify that the neggie d remains in place.

You will find out over the next couple hours if the Fed has any other tricks up their sleeves to keep the stock market turd afloat. Everybody on Wall Street says the sky is the limit for stocks going forward. They have been visiting the cannabis dispensary too many times. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 12:25 PM EST: Speak of the devil, boooiiinnnngg. Rocket launch! The SPX catapults skyward in one minute to 5453 up 22 points on the day, in a flash, and running higher. Whooopie! Wheeee! The Fed watches the charts and knew that the top was at hand so goosing was in order. What's the news? She will set up again with the top; let her breathe for a little while.

Note Added 12:29 PM EST: The bullish orgy is in full swing. SPX 5459. Bulls are grabbing equities with both fists and buying any stock with a heartbeat. Another stick-save providing more morphine to keep the patient breathing.

Note Added 1:18 PM EST: It was Fed's Harker cooing dovishly catapulting stocks higher to save the day. SPX 5467

Note Added 2:32 PM EST: Traders are carrying around Harker on their shoulders while throwing confetti and singing 'for he's a jolly good fellow'. It is comical. The SPX rocket launches 54 points, +1%, to 5485. Investors are tripping over each other to buy stocks at the ask chasing the rally. Mission accomplished. They probably want to keep stocks elevated into the hump day holiday, so she will set up later this week and next week again. You would think the Fed would be okay to see the frothy stock market pullback -10% or -15%. Why not? The wealthy elite and upper middle class that own stocks are the ones keeping the economy afloat with their spending. 

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