GOLD Daily Chart; H&S (Head and Shoulders) Pattern; Gaps

Here is a look at gold in the daily time frame. The H&S jumps out at you. The yellow metal was in orgy mode during March and April with the 2-leg bull flag playing out higher. The first leg is 2000 to 2190 a difference of 190. The sideways consolidation occurs (flag) with a slight downward bias, that looks good, then second leg begins at 2160 so upside target is 2350. It is achieved as gold exploded higher creating gaps that look like swiss cheese (blue circles).

The red lines show two neggie d spankdowns. Interestingly, there was no need for price to come back up for another high in May since the chart indicators were out of gas but it did; there must have been some hype news about something, or a weaker dollar. Price quickly fell again receiving the neggie d spankdown.

The H&S has a neckline at 2310 and head at 2440 so that is 130 difference. The downside target is 2180 (2310-130) if the 2310 neck gives way. There are several gaps that need filled on the way down to the 2180 target which is the consolidation area of that 2-leg bull flag on the way up.

The chart indicators are stumbling sideways, like price, not tipping its hand. If you bring up the weekly chart, it is ugly. The H&S has an ominous descending triangle look to it. Also, the chart indicators on the weekly chart are weak and bleak wanting price to be pulled lower on a weekly basis. This does not portend well for the daily chart and the H&S (it will likely fail).

Keystone does not own any gold ETF's or derivatives now long or short. If the neck fails for the H&S, you know where she's going. That sounds like an Eagles tune. She's goin' to the cheatin' side of town, and she can't hide those Lyin' Eyes. What a shame. City girl, there ain't no way to hide those lyin' eyes. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/2/24, at 4:43 AM EST: Gold 2339.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/13/24, at 6:48 AM EST: Gold floats higher to 2421 creating a potential triple top. On the gold weekly chart, price prints the matching high but all the chart indicators are negatively diverged so a multi-week down slide would be expected to start soon. There is some momo on the daily chart the last couple days and a guess at a top in gold would be next week. Note that price bounced off the H&S neckline refusing to fail into mayhem, for now. The current price action can be considered the right shoulder for the H&S so nothing has changed with the pattern explained above. The 2310 neckline remains the line in the sand. Gold bulls can party and have a good time as long as the yellow metal stays above 2310. If gold loses 2310, the party will turn ugly with drunken fights and the cops arriving with bright lights and sirens. In the week or two ahead, gold's trip top and H&S patterns will likely be resolved, either with price exploding higher nullifying the triple top and H&S, or, price collapsing into the abyss, through 2310, placing into motion the H&S downside target at 2180, and proving that triple tops do exist.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/17/24, at 6:00 AM EST: Gold flies higher to 2468 popping intraday to 2475 a record high. Gold bugs are high-fiving each other as the H&S pattern is nullified (price moves above the head). The 2310 neckline support held on 6/27/24 with gold printing 2306 and then popping now to 2475, a big +7.3% gain in only 12 trading days. The weekly chart remain in negative divergence so a top in gold will likely set up again in a couple weeks or so and bring in a multi-week move lower. Soundbites, the Fed and politics are driving the dollar, gold and other plays.

Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/21/24: Gold has an orgy party as Pope Powell hints at rate cuts coming catapulting to 2488.40 a record high. Gold bugs are throwing confetti and singing songs like Gold on the Ceiling. However, gold falls on its sword dropping to 2399. Bring up a weekly chart and the neggie d across all indicators is staring you in the face. What part of that don't you understand? Last week was the likely start of a neggie d spandown and start of a multi-week decline in gold. Powell speaks next week so he may save it, or stick a knife in it. The expectation is for a multi-week pullback in gold to begin. There is a juicy gap at 2250 that needs filled.

Note Added Monday, 7/22/24: Gold 2394.