NYA NYSE Composite Index Weekly Chart; Battle at 40-Wk MA at 15112 Determines if US Stock Market Remains in a Cyclical Bear Market

The cyclical bear market was in play all through 2022 with the NYA below the critical 40-wk MA. The bulls are battling back and started to gain the upper hand but then collapsed after eating the Thanksgiving Day dinner. The bulls battle back again and NYA is above 15112 signaling a cyclical bull but it is not cast in stone since the 2-month test of the 40-wk continues.

It is simple. If NYA remains above 15112, stock market bulls will be rewarded going forward. If NYA falls back through 15112 and trends lower, the US stock market will fall apart.

The cyclical bear market started one year ago. The NYA performs 2 back kisses, one as February started and the other in late March, and both rejected price spanking it lower, so the back tests were successful for the stock market bears, and as the chart shows, stocks fell apart last year.

Keystone uses 3 metrics to assess a cyclical bull versus bear market; the NYA 40-wk MA cross, the SPX 12-mth MA cross which carries the most clout, and the SPX 150-day MA slope. When all 3 are in sync the direction is cast in stone. During 2022, the NYA remains in a cyclical bear as explained above (now trying to reverse the call).

The SPX 12-month MA is at 4078 and price is not even in the neighborhood at 3840 signaling that the cyclical bear market continues. The slope of the SPX 150-day MA is flatter than a newlywed's soufflé. The slope was negative during 2022 indicating the ongoing cyclical bear market, and that remains the call, but the moving average is flat as a pancake and must make a bounce or die decision.

The NYA, SPX 12-mth and SPX 150-day MA slope easily forecasted the ongoing cyclical bear market for all of last year. Now the picture is tricky since the bulls are trying to fight back. Taking the exact snapshot right now in real-time, the NYA is in a cyclical bull, and the other 2 metrics in a cyclical bear market so the cyclical bear remains in play until all the metrics jump into the bull camp.

If NYA remains above 15112 heading higher, that is bullish for stocks that will rally in the short-run off this outcome. Watch the slope of the SPX 150-day MA since that would be next to jump into the cyclical bull camp. If NYA is a cyclical bull, but the SPX 150-day MA slope remains flat or down, the NYA will likely roll over again and fail.

The big kahuna is the SPX 12-mth MA at 4078 continuing to forecast the ongoing bear market. If the SPX regains 4078, the S&P 500 would likely gain another 200 or more points of upside. Watch the NYA 40-wk MA at 15112 and you will know where the stock market is headed going forward. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 1/4/23, at 8:00 AM EST: The NYA 40-wk MA is at 15071 (it adjusts slightly as the new week begins). NYA finishes Tuesday at 15154. The battle continues.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 1/4/23: NYA 15350.

Note Added Saturday Morning, 1/7/23: NYA 15540.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 1/10/23: NYA 15514.

Note Added Sunday Morning, 1/15/23: The NYA is at 15918 screaming cyclical bull market.