TNX 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart

The 10-year yield receives the neggie d spankdown the last few weeks another easy top call in yields. The blue lines show how yield hit a ceiling at 4.25%-ish for 4 weeks running and all the chart indicators negatively diverged so the top was in. The blue rising wedge is bearish and price also violated the upper standard deviation band so a move to the middle band (now) is on the table as well as a move to the lower band currently at 2.86% and rising. The overbot conditions also helped call the top.

So yield trails lower as notes and bonds are bot and sits on the middle band and 20-wk MA support at 3.61%. It would be a big deal if yield fell through the 3.50%-3.61% area and it likely will since the MACD line remains weak and bleak ditto the stochastics. The RSI and stoch's are also not yet oversold. The RSI is not even below 50% as yet.

Thus, the expectation is for yields to drop to 3.25%-3.50% over the next couple-three weeks. There will likely be a lot of choppy slop in the markets until the new year arrives. 

There is lots of talk about whether rates have topped-out or not. The TNX monthly chart shows yields have topped-out as per the chart indicators except one; the MACD line. It wants one more high in yield on the monthly basis so that is the answer to the question.

The sogginess on the weekly basis needs to finish so a move down to the 3.25%-3.50% area may be on tap moving into January then a move back up in yields to above 4% will occur early in the year to satisfy the monthly chart. 

First thing is first, so simply wait for the negativity in the weekly chart to finish-up and you will know that when the indicators ALL turn possie d. At that time you know bonds will begin selling off and yield will move higher again above 4% probably sometime in late January, February or March. The charts will develop and identify the timing. Keystone is not trading the note or bond ETF's right now. The 10-year yield is now at 3.66%. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.