SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Battle at SPX 12-Month MA at 4097-4100 Determines if US Stock Market Remains in a Cyclical Bear Market

Keystone's main cyclical bull versus cyclical bear market indicator is the SPX 12-month MA. If you were stranded on a deserted island and could only receive one piece of information about the stock market, you would choose the SPX 12-mth MA

The S&P 500 is at 4077 below the 12-mth MA is at 4097 so the US stock market remains mired in the cyclical bear market pattern. The bulls are threatening to reverse the gloom. It is all on the line today and next week.

Price prints 4101 yesterday (12/1/22) piercing the 12-mth MA at 4097 but unable to break up through and close above. There will be more tests ahead that dictate the fate of the stock market ahead well into and perhaps through 2023.

If price rallies up through 4097-4100, stocks are off to the races. A new cyclical bull market begins and traders and investors will be buying stocks like madmen sending equities to the moon.

If the SPX drops from here, or if price rallies to 4097-4100 and is rejected, like Keystone's stand-up comedy routine at the open stage the other night, Katy bar the door because there is serious pain ahead for the US stock market. The 12-month MA is that important.

The 10-mth MA at 4028 is the early warning system. When stocks rally a long-time, the 10-mth MA is above the 12-mth MA so when price falters and drops, the 10-mth warns that there is potential trouble ahead and if the 12-mth MA then fails, it is lights-out for stocks.

On the way up, like now, the 10-mth MA is below the 12-mth MA and provides a warning system to watch the 12-mth MA at 4097-4100 because stocks may want to begin a new cyclical bull market pattern.

You will learn a lot about the fate of US stocks going forward by what happens at the 4097-4100 level today, and over the coming days and couple weeks. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:11 AM EST: The Jobs Report is better than expected. Stocks collapse. S&P futures drop to 4006. The SPX drops to 4027 testing the 10-mth MA at 4024. Of course it does. Price bounces and is now down 37 points to 4040. The 200-day MA is 4046. The 10-mth MA at 4024 will likely be tested again and it is for all the marbles. A drop below 4024 is disaster ahead but a bounce from 4024 and remaining above, like now, will open the door to another run at the 12-mth MA at 4097.

Note Added 6:26 PM EST: The SPX goes on a wild Friday ride after the Jobs Report down big to 4027 but then rallying intraday to close at 4072 losing only 8 points on the session. Do you think the 10 and 12-mth MA's are important? The SPX dropped to a low price at 4027 and the 10-mth MA is 4027 and the SPX ran higher this week to 4101 testing the 12-mth MA at 4097-4100. The upper and lower limits are established. Bulls win big above 4097 with several weeks of upside ahead in the new cyclical bull market. Bears win big below 4027 with the stock market falling apart into a bloody mess for the holidays. The battle royale between bulls and bears continues at 4027-4100. The S&P 500 begins at 4072 next week and decides the path forward for the US stock market. The 200-day MA is 4046 and the 50-wk MA is 4135 that can also be used to gauge market strength and weakness.