By K E Stone (Keystone)
The COVID-19 battle against the human race is 2-1/2 years
along without an end in sight. Coronavirus is a formidable foe. ‘Covid’ and
‘the virus’ are the most often used names by the public when discussing the
pandemic. For example, ‘have you got covid yet?’ or ‘Poor Uncle Grady, he died
from the virus’ or ‘did you get vaccinated for covid?’ or ‘is it a new virus
wave?’
The pandemic road Is long, with many winding turns, thatleads us to who knows where, as The Hollies sing. The BA4 and BA5 sublineages
are wreaking havoc around the globe. Countries that implemented draconian lockdowns
and zero-covid policies, like New Zealand, Australia and China are getting hit
with the highly contagious subvariants especially BA5. The new BA2, BA4 and BA5
outbreaks are flaring-up all over the world.
Europe remains challenged by BA4 and BA5. Germany, France
and Italy are a mess as if people are going around licking doorknobs infecting
everyone. Europeans are socializing the most since pre-pandemic days so just as
1 plus 1 equals 2, hugs and kisses equal COVID-19 cases. Coronavirus infections
ramp higher in Netherlands and Belgium. The UK battles a new wave as Prime
Minister Boris Johnson resigns forced-out of office due to Partygate (Boris and
his cabinet having booze parties while everyone else was locked down not
allowed to have funerals for loved ones) and other scandals.
Greater Asia remains a covid hotbed including China, Hong
Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Sadly, former Japan Prime
Minister Abe, known for Abenomics, was assassinated by a deranged sicko one day
ago. To Japan, it is shocking like the JFK (John F Kennedy) assassination in
the US in the 1960’s. All Japanese will remember where they were at when they
heard the tragic news about Abe. Japan’s new COVID-19 infection wave is
underway while the nation deals with grief from Abe’s passing.
South America cases are on the rise including Brazil,
Paraguay, Ecuador, French Guiana, Venezuela and Columbia. Central America is a
mess especially Guatemala directly south of Mexico. The new infection wave in
Mexico is substantive so those infections are moving north into the southern
United States. How effective is the US herd immunity firewall? So far, so good.
The BA4 and BA5 subvariants do not care if you are quadruple
vaccinated and have had covid; you may still get these bugs. Just ask Fauci
that has been dealing with a double-bout of COVID-19 despite practicing what he
is preaching. Fauci has 4 mRNA shots in
his body and had a bout with the virus and then became infected a second time
with COVID-19. You cannot make the stuff up. Dr Fauci is the guy that Americans
are supposed to be listening to? Maybe he needs to read and preach from a new
coronavirus bible.
The US is in the COVID-19 incubation window right now after
the Independence Day holiday. If the weekend of parties and festivities were a
superspreader, it will show up in the daily new cases from Friday, yesterday,
7/8/22, through Wednesday, 7/13/22.
Memorial Day parties resulted in a subtle rise in US cases
but not enough to call it a superspreader so the hope is that the same thing or
less will occur after Independence Day. The small bump in cases after Memorial
Day, however, helped BA4 and BA5 gain a stronger foothold extending the current
US wave 7.
The US daily new cases chart is shown above. The daily cases
are critical over the coming days since they dictate the path of wave 7 for the
next couple months. The US reports 108K daily new cases for yesterday. It is an
elevated number over 100K, not good, but there are silver linings in this brown
virus egg.
Friday’s are typically the largest data day of the week. Wednesday
was the peak day this week at 115K cases. It is a win that Friday’s cases are
not above 115K although there will be slight revisions to the numbers in the
days ahead. The lingering US wave 7 is unlike the prior 6 waves. Wave 7
consists of a part one and part two, or an A and a B, or whatever you want to
call it.
The first part of wave 7, call it 7a, is April through
Memorial Day; the two months of April and May and part two, call it 7b, is June
and July. 7a peaks at 131K to 133K daily cases 5/26/22 through 6/3/22. The
picture was bright and cases started to retreat but the infections from
Memorial Day parties and memorial events, as well as increased summer fun and
activities, create the next push higher in cases extending wave 7 into the 7b
bump.
The peak in US daily cases is 140K cases on 6/23/22, about 3
weeks after Memorial Day. Americans call the Memorial Day weekend the
unofficial start of summer fun so clearly the increased social activity in the
US leads to the 7b infection wave. If the US cases run higher from here due to
the July 4th holiday infections, a target for a top in cases based on what
happened after Memorial Day would be 7/27/22 and 7/28/22. Let’s hope the
holiday is not a superspreader so a downtrend can begin right away.
The individual day peak in daily cases is 6/23/22 now over 2
weeks in the rearview mirror! That is something to celebrate since the top may
be in for daily cases. The highest cases last week are 115K on Wednesday well
below the peak at 140K and yesterday’s number is below both.
The prior Friday, 7/1/22, is 135K cases, so it is another
big win that none of the numbers last week surpassed 135K and also the Friday
to Friday comparison is 135K cases down to 108K cases. It’s all good indicating
that a top is in place for the US daily new cases. The light at the end of the
wave 7 tunnel may actually be the end of the tunnel and not an oncoming virus
train.
The pop to 115K cases on last Wednesday must have absorbed a
lot of the catch-up data from the holiday weekend. This is a plus. All the
daily case numbers last week are well below the 140K cases peak. So the data
catch-up is finished and the only remaining question is if the Independence Day
weekend was a superspreader, or not.
Yesterday is the first day to get a read on the increase in
infections from the holiday weekend gatherings. As explained, cases over 100K
are nothing to cheer but in the context of the history of wave 7 thus far, last
week was a good week hinting that the worst in daily new cases may be past. The
chronology identifies an 8-day incubation period as the sweet spot for when
daily cases show a substantive pop to confirm a superspreader.
Thus, counting 8 days from July 4th yields Tuesday, 7/12/22.
The 108K cases yesterday are encouraging because if the holiday is a
superspreader, the number should already be creeping higher. The jury is out,
however, until the cases are known for Monday through Wednesday, which will
forecast the remainder of the summer for the United States. The weekend numbers
are expected to be low.
Focus on the daily new cases next week and if numbers come
in below 100K each day, it will be reason to throw confetti and sing songs. If
cases are over 100K early next week but below 120K, it will indicate a bump in
infections from the holiday but no biggie like after Memorial Day. The cases
would be expected to roll back over to the downside. If cases are over 120K and
higher, Katy bar the door, because it will be a further extended wave 7 and an
ugly covid summer ahead.
The 7-day MA for US daily new cases is at 101K cases per day
moving jaggedly through the 90K to 115K range since mid-May. Daily cases must
be below 90K to pull the 7-day moving average lower. Wave 7 remains in an
indefinite sideways funk waiting for the daily cases early next week to dictate
whether the wave improves from here on out, or worsens.
The US active cases chart is shown above. The bell shape
verifies that the virus is being defeated. Unfortunately, after fits and starts
over the last month, the active cases continue sneaking higher now above 3.5
million cases; lousy news. If the peak in daily new cases holds, the active
cases will flatten-out and roll over. Everything depends on the daily new cases
data for Monday through Wednesday which will dictate if the July 4th holiday
weekend was a superspreader, or not.
The US daily deaths chart is shown above. The shameful display of American mediocrity
continues with over 2 hundo Americans dying each and every day from COVID-19.
Worse, data revisions place the US death rate at even higher numbers. Americans
are dying from COVID-19 at a rate of 280 to 370 deaths per day since April.
That is pitiful.
Sleepy Joe Biden, Herbert Hoover incarnate, is busy creating
inflation by destroying America’s energy industry for the sake of windmills and
solar cells. He was elected to handle the pandemic but bozo Biden probably does
not even know that 300 Americans continue dying each day from COVID-19. Someone
should ask him. Joey will likely mumble back that someone should do something.
The upper middle class and privileged elite in America have
all the Paxlovid they could ever want or need. The working poor, disadvantaged,
disabled, downtrodden, minorities and lower middle class folks (there is no
middle class anymore) do not. It is a positive that pharmacists can now
directly prescribe and provide Paxlovid to anyone that tests positive but more
must be done to stop the needless dying.
The US COVID-19 death rate is moving sideways and not up a
positive but a negative that it is not trending lower. This represents a Biden
administration failure at handling the pandemic. Biden and Trump are equally
poor managers neither man able to properly handle the once in a century
pandemic.
Louisiana’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Other
southern states are following the same pattern. The summer infection wave
across the South is well underway. Louisiana’s 7-day MA is at 2.2K cases per
day ramping higher. Folks are flocking indoors to the air conditioning to
escape the hot humid heat but that behavior brings on more infections
The path ahead for the southern states depends on first, if
the holiday weekend is a superspreader, and second, if the ongoing southern
border migrant crisis goes from bad to worse. The infection waves are in full
force across Guatemala and Mexico moving northward. The path of the wave 7’s
for the southern states will dictate the overall direction of the United States
over the coming days.
One potential positive is that the prior summer infection
waves in the South (2020 and 2021) started after July 4th but this year the
infection waves begin in May. Since the new BA2 and now BA4 and BA5 infection
wave 7 started about 6 weeks early in the southern states, perhaps it will
finish 6 weeks sooner.
The prior summer waves in the southern states (2020 and
2021) wrapped up in late August early September, let’s call it Labor Day, so
going backwards 6 weeks places the US at mid to late July to finish the current
infection waves in the southern states based on the prior fractals. Let’s hope
that scenario plays out where the US is flushing-out the last of the covid
nasties this month and the blue skies and rainbows will appear from August
forward.
Returning to the world stage, the world’s daily new cases
are shown above. Over 1 million daily new cases are reported for the last 3
consecutive days. The 7-day MA is 838K cases per day ramping higher; not good. The
current global infection wave overtakes the bump in daily cases due to the
North Korea infection explosion; not good.
The world’s daily new deaths chart is shown above. Over 2K
people die worldwide yesterday and the 7-day MA is at 1.5K deaths per day
moving higher not seen since May; lousy news. BA5 is a nasty bug that wants the
world to experience its infamy. The global death rate is the lowest since the
start of the pandemic but that is little comfort for the families that are told
that Oliver, Aunt Latisha, Cousin Larry and Little Running Feather are part of
the 1.5K yesterday.
Is the global death rate climbing because BA5 is attacking
the lower respiratory tract and lungs like early COVID-19 outbreaks? The recent
omicron outbreaks are upper respiratory afflictions (mouth, nasal, throat) that
tend to be less lethal. Once any nasty is exploring your lungs, including ciggy
smoke and its additives, you got problems.
Some unvaccinated folks will review preventive and early
treatment protocols such as those suggested by the Frontline Alliance using
ivermectin, HCQ, zinc, melatonin, turmeric, quercetin, vitamins C and D and
other supplements and drugs. Steam inhalation is a helpful preventive practice
to keep the lungs clear. Gargling with a mouthwash containing cetylpyridinium
chloride (Act, Scope, Crest; check the ingredients) is helpful as a preventive.
If infections are rising in the area, unvaccinated Keystone
will wash-up real good when back home, shoot a couple shots of Zicam up each
nostril, and gargle with Betadine making sure to never swallow. Of course,
anyone else would have to check with their doctors to find out their best path
forward.
Using Act or other mouthwashes listed above after flossing
and before brushing your teeth is helpful to keep the viruses away. The time to
do your homework is now not when your free covid test indicates a positive and
you begin running around the house like a chicken with his head cut off.
Review the Therapeutics Locator map and research the
nearest facilities that offer Pfizer’s Paxlovid anti-viral oral pills and/or
Eli Lilly’s bebtelovimab monoclonal antibody infusions if you need them. This
is important information to discuss with your doctor/s and healthcare
providers. Be proactive. Keep your immune system healthy.
EARLY TREATMENT provides the best outcome from COVID-19 more
than anything else so keep in mind every hour and minute matters after you test
positive. Picture a clock ticking away and each minute that passes may lead to
a worse outcome. The sooner they stick you with the mAb treatment, or you down
your first Paxlovid pill of the 5-day treatment, the better.
Europe is a mess bludgeoned by the BA4 and BA5, mainly BA5,
subvariants. Italy’s daily new cases chart is shown above. It also serves as a
representative chart for Germany, France, Austria, Belgium, the UK, Ireland and
others. Italy’s 7-day MA for daily new cases is up to 93K cases per day ramping
higher. Germany, France and Italy, only these 3 nations, account for nearly
one-half the COVID-19 cases occurring in the world.
Israel’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Israel has
vaccinated the population 4 or 5 times and the result is a new infection wave
like everyone else. Further, 58 Israeli’s die from covid last Wednesday.
Everyone now knows that vaccines do not prevent illness or transmission (then
why call it a vaccine?) but do the shots actually help prevent serious illness
and death (against BA2, BA4 and BA5) as touted by the vaccine cheerleaders?
Tell that to 58 grieving families plus a couple dozen more since then.
New Zealand’s daily new cases chart is shown above. A new
infection wave is well underway but Prime Minister Ardern has not commented on
the problem as yet. Does she even know what is going on? Jacinda honey, call
the health secretary. You have a new infection wave underway. New Zealand’s
7-day MA is above 9.5K cases per day about to jump above 10K cases per day.
New Zealand, Australia and China need to worry more than
other nations since they have remained more secluded during the 2-1/2 year
pandemic. BA5 is now finding all those juicy virgin bodies and taking up
residence. New Zealand reports a huge 18K cases last Wednesday as Ardern was
jet-setting around the world.
New Zealander’s need to remain vigilant and cautious and
keep distance between one another if possible. Listen to this advice rather
than the sound of crickets from your leadership.
Malaysia’s daily new cases chart is shown above. A new wave
is underway which means Indonesia and Philippines will also be in trouble.
Unlike New Zealand, the Malaysian health minister (Jamaluddin) deserves credit
for already warning the population and providing instructions declaring that
the “new wave is underway.”
The early warnings, treatment and public awareness will help
Malaysia tamp down the new infection wave faster. It is better to be proactive
rather than in a crisis management scenario where managers and politicians go
from crisis to crisis unable to stop or control the mayhem due to their
incompetence. Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines must brace for a couple
months of elevated infections.
Japan’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Japan reports
a big 48K daily new cases yesterday and the 7-day MA is going parabolic at 31K
cases per day. On top of a terrible new infection wave, the island nation is
dealing with the Abe assassination.
For the last 4 charts, let’s go from Brazil to Bolivia to Guatemala
to Mexico. South America is getting hit with increased infections. Argentina
and Chile in the south of the continent are slowly improving from their
infection waves. Brazil, Bolivia, French Guiana, Paraguay, Ecuador, Peru,
Venezuela and Columbia are challenged by the new omicron subvariants.
Brazil is trying to stabilize the 7-day MA at 57K cases per
day but when the daily cases are above 76K like yesterday, the 7-day MA is
going to have an upward bias. BA5 is in heaven comingling with those hot
Brazilian bodies that are rhythmically gyrating to the drum beats at the Tiki
Bar. Rio de Janeiro is such fun.
Bolivia’s daily new cases chart is shown above. Bolivia
reports a big 2.9K daily new cases yesterday and the 7-day MA is going
parabolic at over 1.8K cases per day.
Boom. Guatemala reports over 6K daily new cases yesterday
the most cases and record high of the pandemic. It is terrible news. The
infections feed into Mexico and then move northward to the United States. Daily
new cases are averaging over 3K cases per day no doubt heading higher. Is
someone boating-in infected people dropping them off at Guatemala’s shoreline?
Bang. Mexico reports 33K daily new cases yesterday the most
for the current wave. The clock just fell off the wall in AMLO’s office (Mexico
President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador). The 7-day MA has gone parabolic at 22K
cases per day.
Mexico is a covid-infected mess as it and the United States
border officials deal with President Biden’s self-imposed migrant crisis. So
far, America’s strong herd immunity is putting up a noble fight against the
BA2, BA4 and BA5 banditos.
The USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases
in the world at 90.3 million crossing the 90 million lousy milestone a couple
days ago. India is next with 43.6 million total virus cases. Brazil, France, Germany,
UK, Italy, South Korea, Russia, Turkey, Spain, Vietnam, Japan, Argentina,
Australia and Netherlands round out the top 16 worst nations.
The ranking held steady for 2 months without changes until
now. Italy worsens leapfrogging both Russia and South Korea. South Korea
leapfrogs Russia. Japan leapfrogs Argentina. Australia leapfrogs Netherlands.
COVID-19 has infected 560 million people worldwide. China
(the CCP) owes reparations to the world for its heinous crime against humanity.
6.37 million people on Earth are dead from the China Flu a grim statistic. 533 million
global citizens have recovered from the virus.
95% (533/560) of the people that become infected with COVID-19
recover in a reasonable time frame. This number was 96% for many weeks so the
recovery percentage slips a hair as BA5 bites harder.
Worldwide, 1.1% (6.37/560) of the people that are infected
with covid die; 1 in 88 (hit the 1/x button on your calculator). This number
was 1.2% for over a year so slippage to 1.1% is great news (less people are
dying after they become infected compared to prior waves).
7.3% (560/7670) of the world’s population of 7.67 billion
people have been infected with coronavirus; 1 in every 14 people on earth. 0.08%
of the world’s population (6.37/7670) died from the pandemic; 1 in every 1,188
people on earth died from China Virus over the last couple years.
In the United States, 90.3 million people are infected with covid.
1.046 million Americans are dead. 85.7 million Americans have recovered from coronavirus.
This equates to 95% (85.7/90.3) of US citizens recovering after becoming
infected with COVID-19.
In the US, 1.1% (1/89) of the people infected with COVID-19
die. 1 in every 88 US citizens that are infected with coronavirus die. Thus, if
you are infected with China Virus in the United States, you have about a 1 in
90 chance of dying. 0.3% (1/330) of Americans have died from COVID-19 which is
1 in every 330 Americans over the last 2-1/2 years.
27% (90.3/330) of the American population of 330 million
people have been infected with covid; 1 in every 4 Americans (3.7 to be exact).
The CDC said a few months ago that one-half the US population, 50%, have been
infected by COVID-19 and have some level of antibody protection; it is likely
60% or even 80% or more now as the omicron bugs work through the system.
The US is doing a good job at holding wave 7 at bay but it
remains an unknown if the holiday party weekend is a superspreader. The trend
in daily cases is flat which is better than up so herd immunity must be playing
a role (vaccination and natural antibody protections).
The United States has 16% (90.3/560) of the COVID-19 cases
in the world. 1 in 6 people that become infected with covid on the planet are
Americans. The US vaccination program made an impact month’s ago, but not so
much in recent months.
The US accounts for 16% (1.04/6.35) of the China Flu deaths
in the world. 1 in 6 people that die from COVID-19 around the world are Americans.
Over a year ago, it was 1 in 5 so vaccinations helped a little bit.
The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model,
the Keystone Model for short, is a simple model that predicts when the active
cases chart will flatten-out and roll-over lower. The active cases chart is the
‘flatten the curve’ chart that represents the maximum stress and strain on the
medical system and healthcare workers. Once the active cases chart rolls over
forming the bell shape, the virus is being defeated and healthcare workers can
breathe easier.
The Keystone Model uses the peak in the daily new cases to
forecast the peak and flattening of the active cases curve. The ‘flattening of
the curve’ only pertains to the active cases chart. For communist nations where
the populations must do what they are told or they receive a bullet in their
heads (China), and for smaller authoritarian nations (Eastern European
countries, Africa and Middle East nations), and many Asian nations where
citizens follow government rules without questioning authority (South Korea,
Japan, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand), the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 11 days after the peak in daily new cases.
For the Western countries, such as the US and European
nations, the so-called free societies, the active cases curve will peak, on
average, 28 days after the peak in new cases. It takes about 2 weeks longer for
a free society to tamp down a virus wave than a communist or authoritarian
state because lockdowns are not strictly followed or enforced. As time moves
along, nations become better equipped and experienced to fend off outbreaks so the
time between the daily new cases peak and active cases peak is shortening.
For example, the last 2 waves in the UK show only an 11-day
difference between the peak in daily and active cases. After 2-1/2 years,
Western nations are experienced at handling the virus so the distance between
the daily and active cases peaks are decreasing towards the 11-day distance
where the authoritarian and communist style nations are at that enforce the
strict draconian rules to tamp down infections. Once the majority of the
population is either vaccinated or had the virus, the path forward becomes
easier.
All projections below for countries and the US states continue
to use the 11 and 28-day periods for forecasting for consistency. When the peak
in daily new cases occurs, if a subsequent day is within 8% of that peak top,
it is identified as the peak in daily new cases day in reference to the
Keystone Model.
The peak in the daily new cases is easily seen on the bar
charts provided by Worldometer, the CDC and Johns-Hopkins. The daily new cases
bar charts are shown on television news channels with a 7-day moving average
(MA) line which is a smoothing mechanism that identifies the trend.
An update for The Keystone Model is provided since another
10-day period passes and more data and information become available to push the
China Virus story forward. The Coronavirus Chronology identifies the real-time
hotspots occurring around the world and within the United States. The
chronology serves as a historical document that will be referenced for decades
to come by those that want to experience the entire pandemic as it unfolds in
real-time.
The Coronavirus Chronology compilation of articles will be
published in the future by Amazon and others and distributed internationally. This
is Article 82 in the Coronavirus Chronology that provides real-time information
for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market
participants, corporate executives, financial managers, Wall Street, doctors,
nurses, medical personnel, first responders, psychologists, psychiatrists,
counselors, neurologists, researchers, public officials, news organizations,
traders, investors and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic both
domestically (USA) and internationally.
This eighty-second article is published on Saturday, 7/9/22.
The Coronavirus Chronology series of articles are the only real-time source of
information available continuously chronicling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic from
early 2020 into 2022; it is the China Virus Bible.
Readers live and breathe the pandemic, the worst in a century,
as it occurs in real-time, experiencing the daily virus zeitgeist, good or bad,
devoid of political correctness. This is not revisionist history-telling. It is
the raw pandemic truth and human emotion occurring, recorded and chronicled in
real time, without any allegiance to political parties or media sources. The
information is direct and unapologetic. A chronology can be written no other
way.
All 82 Coronavirus Chronology articles are archived on The
Keystone Speculator blog. The last couple articles are linked below if you want
to remain up to speed with the never-ending COVID-19 saga.
The Worldometer web site tracks coronavirus (COVID-19) around
the world and its link is provided. Many charts in the coronavirus series of
articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone. The
CDC COVID Data Tracker is another excellent source of information. The
Worldometer, Johns-Hopkins and CDC data track each other well with the
Worldometer data leading the others by a few days. The Worldometer data is far
superior for forecasting since it is updated more reliably in real-time.
The countries with rising active cases charts are
highlighted below with the worst nations at the bottom. The peaks in daily new
cases are shown and the projected peaks for active cases are based on the
Keystone Model. The peak and flattening of the active cases curves are
extremely important since it represents the maximum stress on healthcare
workers and the medical systems.
It will take longer for the active cases charts to roll over
to form the bell shape for the troubled nations at the bottom of the list since
they are still experiencing highs and peaks in their daily new cases.
Hospitalizations lag the daily cases by a week or two and deaths lag
hospitalizations by a week or two. The
United States wave 7 is unfortunately pushed forward again with the active
cases not expected to flatten and roll over until the back half of July.
Chile (Seventh Wave)
6/25/22 New Case Peak Date
7/6/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve is flattening)
6/28/22 New Case Peak Date
7/9/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve trying to flatten)
7/1/22 New Case Peak Date
7/29/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
7/1/22 New Case Peak Date
7/12/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/3/22 New Case Peak Date
7/13/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/4/22 New Case Peak Date
7/15/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/4/22 New Case Peak Date
7/15/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/4/22 New Case Peak Date
7/15/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/22 New Case Peak Date
7/16/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/22 New Case Peak Date
7/16/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/22 New Case Peak Date
7/16/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/22
New Case Peak Date
7/16/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (based on 11 days)
7/5/22 New Case Peak Date
7/16/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/6/22 New Case Peak Date
7/17/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/6/22 New Case Peak Date
7/17/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/6/22 New Case Peak Date
7/17/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/7/22 New Case Peak Date
8/4/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 28 days)
7/7/22 New Case Peak Date
7/18/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/7/22 New Case Peak Date
7/18/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/7/22 New Case Peak Date
7/18/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/7/22 New Case Peak Date
7/18/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/7/22 New Case Peak Date
7/18/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days) (curve trying to flatten)
7/8/22 New Case Peak Date
7/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/8/22 New Case Peak Date
7/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/8/22 New Case Peak Date
7/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/8/22 New Case Peak Date
7/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/8/22 New Case Peak Date
7/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/8/22 New Case Peak Date
7/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/8/22 New Case Peak Date
7/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/8/22 New Case Peak Date
7/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/8/22 New Case Peak Date
7/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
7/8/22 New Case Peak Date
7/19/22 Projected Active Case Peak
Date (based on 11 days)
The BA5 subvariant raises its ugly head causing havoc around the world. The BA4 and BA5 bugs are extending the US wave 7.
Costa Rica was removed from the bad country list because of
lack of data. Some countries are discontinuing their data when the infection
wave worsens then the data magically reappears in full once the wave is on the
downside. Filthy politicians are always playing games. Every nation on earth is
corrupt.
Seven countries are added to the bad list; Venezuela, French
Guiana, Peru, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Japan. New waves are
beginning for Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines. The numbers are small now
but should increase substantively over the coming weeks.
South America has issues but at least the southern countries,
Argentina and Chile, are likely past their recent peaks in infection waves on a
daily cases basis. Europe remains a hot covid mess.
Central and North America are in the covid quagmire.
Guatemala and Mexico are in bad shape with infections increasing daily. Canada
takes a turn for the worse with cases moving higher again. In the middle is the
United States, using its robust herd immunity as a covid shield, but the jury
remains out on the path forward for wave 7.
The US will worsen and create a lousy summer if the cases
increase in the days ahead verifying that the holiday weekend was a
superspreader. If, however, the cases remain subdued, and the party weekend was
not a superspreader, there will be reason to throw confetti and celebrate the
remaining joyous summer ahead for America.
China remains a mess with jackass Dictator Xi proclaiming
success with the zero-covid strategy as the Chinese people are subject to daily
mass testing in the major cities and folks are routinely thrown into lockdowns.
When you control the media like the CCP, you control the people.
China may be in for a tough road ahead because the BA5
subvariant is in play now and the communist nation may not be properly prepared
for the highly-contagious bug. The Chinese vaccines are junk. Much of the
elderly population is not vaccinated. Some because the CCP wants many of them
to die. The elderly population is culled under the guise of the pandemic since
they become a burden to a communist society.
Some older Chinese folks do not want vaccinated because they
do not trust the communist government. Hopefully, the Chinese folks will be
okay and weather the BA5 covid storm, draconian lockdowns and heavy-hand of the
filthy CCP government. China’s data is unreliable but the commie nation would
be on the bad list above if they provided trustworthy numbers. The CCP are
filthy communists that would lie to their own mother. The Chinese people
deserve better.
Back in the States, wave 7 is flatlining and extended due to
the BA4 and BA5 subvariants. 10 days ago, 22 states displayed active cases that
were dropping a good thing indicating that they are gaining the upper hand
against covid but 28 states remained on the bad list below.
The southern states are fully engulfed in the summer
infection waves so it will be interesting to see how the state tally adjusts.
The US list below identifies the worst states especially at
the bottom of the list. The peak in daily new cases and projections for the
peaks in active cases are provided as per the Keystone Model.
The flattening and roll over of the active cases curve forming
the bell shape (see US active cases chart above) indicates the virus is being
defeated and the caseload on healthcare workers will quickly improve.
Healthcare workers are not under duress with wave 7 like prior waves. At least
not so far, but the hospitals, clinics and doctor’s offices across the South
must stay on alert since cases are on the way higher.
The dates for the states to peak with active cases dribble
into August a disappointing sight. Hope is still alive but dwindling that this
month, July, would be the last hurrah for wave 7 and perhaps for the pandemic
phase. BA5 controls America’s destiny.
Utah
(Seventh Wave)
6/14/22
New Case Peak Date
7/12/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over)
6/16/22
New Case Peak Date
7/14/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over)
6/21/22
New Case Peak Date
7/19/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
6/22/22
New Case Peak Date
7/20/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
6/23/22
New Case Peak Date
7/21/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
6/30/22
New Case Peak Date (not reporting data for a week)
7/28/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over)
7/1/22
New Case Peak Date
7/29/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/1/22
New Case Peak Date
7/29/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve is rolling over but not confirmed since
daily case data stopped on 7/1/22)
7/6/22
New Case Peak Date
8/3/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over)
7/6/22
New Case Peak Date
8/3/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over)
7/6/22
New Case Peak Date
8/3/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/6/22
New Case Peak Date
8/3/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/6/22
New Case Peak Date (data stopped)
8/3/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over)
7/6/22
New Case Peak Date
8/3/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/7/22
New Case Peak Date
8/4/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over)
7/7/22
New Case Peak Date
8/4/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/7/22
New Case Peak Date
8/4/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/7/22
New Case Peak Date
8/4/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over)
7/7/22
New Case Peak Date
8/4/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/7/22
New Case Peak Date
8/4/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/8/22
New Case Peak Date
8/7/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over)
7/8/22
New Case Peak Date
8/5/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/8/22
New Case Peak Date
8/5/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/8/22
New Case Peak Date
8/5/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date (curve trying to flatten and roll over)
7/8/22
New Case Peak Date
8/5/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/8/22
New Case Peak Date
8/5/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
7/8/22
New Case Peak Date
8/5/22
Projected Active Case Peak Date
It is pleasantly
surprising that the 22 states that were not on the bad list remain off with
their active cases charts happily moving lower such as Illinois and
Pennsylvania. However, a few of the now 23 good states that are not on the list
are on shaky ground and may end up back on the bad list next time including New
York, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Ohio.
It is encouraging
that the names at the top of the list show peak daily new cases dates back in
June. Their infection waves will improve as long as the holiday weekend is not
a superspreader and BA5 behaves itself. Oh, behave, as Austin says.
The new waves for
the southern states have big helpings of BA2, BA4 and BA5 bugs in the mix. BA4
and BA5 were not the major issue when the outbreak waves rippled through New
York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, for example, so the worry is that these 2
bugs will now work backwards and reattack those states. European countries
worked through the BA2 wave only to now be slapped around by the BA4/BA5 wave
so the same pattern may occur for the northeastern US states.
The US Army cuts the
pay for 62K National Guardsmen because they did not get vaccinated. People in
charge are purposely trying to destroy the country. Hey *ssholes, Dr Fauci is
fully vaccinated with 4 shots including the booster-booster, and had a prior
infection, and he has covid again. The vaccine mandates have little to do with
health and safety. The military jackass brass wants to exert power and control
over its troops. Kneel, bitches.
The FDA provides
official approval for the vaccines for the 12 to 15 year old age group negating
the emergency use authorization (EUA).
Only 2% of children
under 5 years old have been vaccinated over the last month. That is funny. The
kids that were injected with the mRNA serum are probably all doctor’s children.
American parents have been doing their research and making logical decisions
for their families.
After 2-1/2 years of
the pandemic, there are only about 1,200 COVID-19 deaths in children under 18
years old and these kids had underlying health issues and/or suffering from
childhood obesity. There are over 1.046 million Americans dead from COVID-19.
The virus is not an issue for children.
The vaccine
proponents will quickly shout, “Blasphemy!” and counter that children may
develop long covid problems. Parents are making smart decisions and the
government, Sleepy Joe, and the CDC and NIH, are just going to have to accept
it.
The polling showed
wider acceptance of the toddler vaccinations a couple months ago but as more
information was provided during the approval process, the enthusiasm about
having the youngsters younger than 5 years old shot-up waned.
The CDC reports that90% of the US population over 18 years old are vaccinated with at least oneshot. That is an excellent participation rate so, Don’t Worry, Be Happy. The USvaccination rate continues a downward slide dredging out new lows around 200Kshots per day. Keystone saw a vaccination site at the local pharmacy made up
with fancy signs and lots of folding chairs anticipating a crowd. No one was
there; a tumbleweed rolled by.
Many Americans have
lost interest and confidence in the vaccines. After all, what kind of vaccine
takes at least 4 shots with more on the come and does not protect you from
getting COVID-19 or transmitting it to someone else. Huh?
US COVID-19 hospitaladmissions continue higher especially for folks over 70 years old. US coronavirushospitalizations were trying to remain flat during wave 7 but that can be
tossed out the window. US hospitalizations now show a nasty trend higher to 28K
COVID-19 patients.
Perhaps BA5 is
attacking more of the lower respiratory tract (lungs) that results in more complications
rather than the upper tract (nasal, throat) which leads to less severe
outcomes. That is a question for the doctors and scientists to answer.
The CDC Community Transmissionmap is less green than 10 days ago as the BA2, BA4 and BA5 subvariants bite at
Uncle Sam’s boots. The orange (which should be pastel rose) high-risk infection
counties account for 21% of the nation. The yellow medium-risk infection
counties are at 38% and the green low-risk counties account for 41% of the US.
Thus, the people
living in 1 in 5 US counties should be wearing masks indoors. The CDC proclaims
that one-third of Americans live in a county with high COVID-19 risk levels.
Leave it to the CDC to constantly create pandemic communication confusion.
If both statements
are correct, and they both come from the CDC, then 21%, or 1 in 5 counties are
in the high-risk zone and one-third of the US population lives within these
counties. That sounds good but where’s the data for that CDC? Had it here a
minute ago but must have left it in the pocket of my other suit jacket.
Someone would have
to add up the populations in all the orange high-risk counties, the CDC may
have this automated, and then compare that to the 330 million US population so
about 110 million people live in the high-risk orange counties. We will have to
take the CDC’s word on it. Americans have to start trusting fellow Americans
again.
A study led by Dr
Al-Aly at Washington University in St Louis (an unabashedly liberal college so
you know the slant), says multiple COVID-19 illnesses can result in increased
health complications including pulmonary problems. The study analyzed health
data from the VA Health System. Of course, vaccinations are touted as the
savior.
These studies and
stories appear in left-leaning rags and on liberal news outlets when the
administration is trying to encourage more vaccinations. In the days ahead, CNN
and MSNBC will likely show people dying in the hospital from COVID-19 and in
their last gasp plead with folks to get vaccinated. How touching.
The vaccine ship has
already sailed. Folks are either on
board with the vaccines, sailing with what some call a ship of fools, or waving
to the vaccinated from the dock. It would be hard to convince people’s minds at
this time one way or the other about vaccinations. The multiple shots create
more confusion with each passing month since it is a hard sell to tell someone
they have to get 4 or 5 vaccine shots over many months. It is easier to say
Hell with it and go to the bar for a drink.
The CDC says the BA2
cases have dropped from 53% to 42% over the last week. Do not cheer because BA4
infections increase from 12% to 16% and the nasty BA5 infections increase from
25% to 37%. The combined BA4 and BA5 infections account for 53% (the CDC says
55%) of the total infections (over one-half the US cases). The BA1 cases are
down to 6%. Obviously, BA5 is the bastard.
New York City’s
Mayor Adams never misses a chance to place his puss in front of a camera. Adams
is recommending New Yorkers wear masks indoors and in crowded outdoor settings.
Is anyone listening anymore? To his credit, he is warning and educating the
public about the virus which is his job. The New York COVID-19 test positivity
rate is high up to 14%.
A massive heat wave
is hitting the US this weekend. Texas and Alabama may set all time temperature
records. Infections may increase as folks huddle around the window air
conditioning unit cheek to cheek.
The US airline
travel nightmare continues. Flight delays and cancellations are now expected
and routine like a third world country. The daily display of American
mediocrity is sickening. Now the airlines are blaming ‘schedule fatigue’ saying
workers are balking at the long hours with crazy schedules changing a few times
per day. What a mess.
Hey airline
*ssholes, how’s that vaccine mandate garbage working out? Do you think some of
your once loyal employees, that now hate your guts for forcing them to get vaccinated,
give a rat’s behind about your airline anymore? Likely not. Idiots. If you
screw someone, they will screw you back. Capisce?
If the airlines were
smart, they would release a statement that the vaccine mandates are over
permanently. Of course they would need Sleepy Joey’s blessing so it likely will
never happen. But if the airlines got rid of the vaccine mandate trash, the
airline travel would immediately improve. Many unvaccinated fired employees
would return.
The new problem for
the airlines would then be existing employees that become irate because they
took the shots like little submissive’s but others did not and would be working
again. The airlines are twisted-up in their own spider’s web of covid vaccine
mandate Hell. Airline travel will suck for many months.
It takes time to
train pilots, stewards, mechanics and other personnel. When enthusiastic
candidates in love with flying, the skies and the great blue yonder, are told
that they would always have to kneel before power and accept any vaccine into
their bodies that the airline decrees they take, people rethink this career
choice and maybe the airline business is not something they want to pursue after
all. Airlines cannot get the people to even start the one and two-year training
programs due to their vaccine mandate garbage.
The CDC decrees that
case counts are not providing an accurate picture of the current US infection
wave and are far from representative. As previously mentioned, it is the trend
that is important in forecasting not a perfect case number count. It does not
matter if the data is undercounted by 10% or 30% or 50% since it will be
undercounted consistently and the underlying trend in the available data remains
valid.
It is not hard to
understand. Maybe the CDC is touting this talking point to play up the total
infections to help secure more funding for the pandemic. Congress is more
inclined to provide money if hundreds of thousands are infected per day with
covid rather than about 100K.
From a standpoint of
wave forecasting, however, the total case count will not skew the predictions.
People that test positive with a COVID-19 home test may or may not seek medical
attention and may not be counted. So what. Those numbers can be fine-tuned and
figured out at a later date. The shape of the infection curve will be the same
only its amplitude lessened.
The daily cases this
week tell the tale for America this summer despite what the CDC says. As
presented above, if the daily new cases for the United States Monday through
Wednesday come in under 100K, we are on the way to beating wave 7. It will be
glorious if the daily cases are below 90K for all three days.
If the US daily
cases exceed 100K for any day next week, that will be received like a stick to
the eye. Case numbers over 100K per day will maintain an elevated 7-day MA
trend line and continue the wave 7 misery with BA4 and BA5 at play.
If US daily new cases
come in over 120K, that spells trouble and a lot more infections to come. If
cases in the days ahead exceed the wave 7 peak high thus far at 140K,
everything will be going to Hell in a covid handbag this summer.
Keystone will be
able to tell you if the Independence Day holiday weekend was a superspreader
and what lies ahead for the United States this summer early Thursday morning
when the Wednesday cases are known. The CDC may want to listen.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/10/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The latest data from the CDC clearly shows BA5 as the dominant subvariant in America. 54% of the current infections are BA5. 17% are BA4. 27% are BA2. 3% are BA1. The combined BA4 and BA5 infections account for 71% of the current infections about 3 of every 4 new cases in America. BA5 is muscling BA2 out of the way. The BA5 bug is escaping antibody responses so it does not matter if you are vaccinated, or had COVID-19, even a recent bout of the virus, because anyone can be infected with BA5. Well, isn't that special as the Church Lady would lament. Canadian scientists release a study that identifies the potential physiological reasons why some people suffer from long-covid symptoms such as shortness of breath, fatigue, brain fog and inability to function as actively as before the COVID-19 illness. The scientists identify abnormalities in the lungs where the transfer of oxygen into red blood cells occurs. The study should provide some comfort to folks suffering long-covid symptoms since healthcare providers, doctors, friends and family now know the malaise is 'not in their heads'.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/10/22, at 5:30 AM EST: The world is averaging 809K daily new cases per day hinting that the global infection rate may be leveling-out. Russia reports over 3.5K daily new cases yesterday with infections on an upward path the last 3 weeks. The numbers remain tiny compared to prior waves but this may be the start of Russia's new infection wave occurring in real-time. If the BA4 and BA5 subvariants begin rippling through Russia, how would that effect the ongoing war that dirtbag Dictator Putin has imposed on Ukraine? India's daily new cases continue ramping higher now averaging over 17K infections per day. India must inform the public immediately about the coming wave and instruct citizens to maintain distance between one another if possible. On a positive note, Bangladesh's outbreak, as measured by the daily new cases, may be peaking and rolling over. Oh no. Thwack. Japan is smacked with 50K new infections yesterday the most of the current wave that is parabolic. Australia's new wave continues higher at over 37K infections per day. New Zealand's daily new cases are parabolic at 10K infections per day. Officials are finally aware of the covid situation that may explode out of control. The big concern is the New Zealand hospitals already operating at capacity. Health officials are telling folks to use masks. New Zealand and Australia need to take the new infection waves seriously since their nations enforced strict lockdown measures and much of the population has not had COVID-19 so there is very little natural immunity in play. Europe remains a hot covid mess.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/10/22, at 6:00 AM EST: The US reports a nice low 31K daily new cases for Saturday an expected low weekend number. Today, Sunday, the cases should be even lower. Friday's cases are revised higher to 113K and Thursday up to 122K cases. Wednesday is at 115K cases so the high for last week flips from hump day to Thursday which is no big deal. Friday's cases are below both Wednesday and Thursday which is a good thing. 232 Americans continue dying from COVID-19 each day. To beat the dead covid horse one more time, America's path forward for the remainder of the summer hinges upon the daily new cases in the week ahead that dictate whether the holiday weekend was a superspreader. If not, the future is bright. If cases begin ramping higher in part due to July 4th superspreader infections, the wave 7 malaise will likely linger into August.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 7/10/22: Unvaccinated Serbian tennis star Novak Djokovic wins at the Wimbledon grass courts for the 7th time and it is his 21st grand slam win. The vaccine defiant champion opines that he will not play in the US Open unless the restrictions about vaccinations are lifted. Djokovic declares, "I'm not vaccinated and I'm not planning to get vaccinated so the only good news I can have is them removing the mandated green vaccine card or whatever you call it to enter United States or exemption." Djokovic sticks to his guns about not getting vaccinated. Meanwhile, on the cycling circuit, Tour de France cyclists are concerned about the current COVID-19 outbreak across Europe. A few racers have to bow out due to testing positive for covid. Australia is expanding the availability of anti-viral treatments as new cases ramp higher. Aussie hospitals are concerned about the rise in COVID-19 patients. Shanghai announces 24 new China Virus infections. There are 300 new cases across China. Dictator Xi's zero-covid strategy is a continuous failure. Macau closes its casinos and people are restricted to their homes due to expanding COVID-19 infections.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 7/10/22: New Jersey is concerned over a bump higher in daily cases and the COVID-19 test positivity rate is up to 12%. Wisconsin hospitals are reporting a rise in covid patients not seen since March with a test positivity rate over 13%. Maryland reports a rise in cases blaming it on the holiday weekend. Maryland's test positivity rate is 10%.
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/11/22, at 3:00 AM EST: The world is averaging 787K COVID-19 cases per day slipping back below 8 hundo but will it last? The global death rate is at 1.4K bodies per day traveling sideways. Germany crosses the 29 million total COVID-19 cases milestone and continues reporting 90K daily new cases per day. Germany's peak day for the current infection wave is 147K cases on 7/4/22 last Monday. Therefore, today's cases are critical. If Germany's cases are below 147K (which is expected), that is going to indicate that the top is in or at hand in Europe for the current infection wave (on the daily new cases basis; active cases and hospitalizations will follow). France crosses the 150K total covid deaths grim milestone and continues reporting 98K cases per day. Ditto Italy at 96K cases per day. Germany, France and Italy are smacked hard by the BA4 and BA5 subvariants. Does it have to do with genetic makeup? Australia and New Zealand cases continue higher each day as Prime Minister Ardern leaves the country again, for another trip, this time to tout climate change. "Hey Lady," as Jerry Lewis would say, do you know that you have a new infection wave underway in your country? Boom. Japan reports a big 52K daily new cases the most for the current wave that is parabolic at 39K cases per day. Infections are rising again in China. 30 million Chinese are in or headed for lockdowns which is about one-tenth of the US population to put it in perspective. Dirtbag Dictator Xi's idiot zero-covid policy has negative implications on the global economy exacerbating the ongoing worldwide inflation and accelerating the approaching recession. Mexico is a covid nightmare reporting 33K daily new cases yesterday another record high for the current wave. Guatemala remains a covid mess.
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/11/22, at 4:00 AM EST: The US reports 24K cases below the 31K cases on Saturday two expected low numbers on the weekend. The rubber now meets the road for the days ahead. The US will know over the next 3 days if the July 4th holiday weekend was a superspreader. Maryland is blaming its uptick in cases on the holiday parties. The democrat Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer tests positive for China Virus. Another One Bites the Dust. Schumer is quadruple vaccinated including the booster-booster. Get 4 covid shots and get covid. Schumer is isolating at home with mild symptoms. The Whitehouse and Capitol Hill remain covid-infected nests during the pandemic. The scientists and experts are starting to hedge their bets saying that the multiple COVID-19 vaccination series 'likely' protects against severe illness. Fauci and the gang told everyone to get the shot and you will not get covid. Wrong, and it was 2 shots. Then they said get vaccinated because you will not transmit the virus. Wrong. Then they said get the booster, then the booster-booster and sign up for the Fall booster-booster-booster since these multiple mRNA shots will protect against severe illness and death. Are they wrong again? It is easy to understand why millions of Americans do not even listen to the so-called experts anymore. Their track record is abysmal.
Note Added Monday Afternoon, 7/11/22: The US government announces a $3.2 million order to Novavax for its protein-based COVID-19 two-shot vaccine when it is provided emergency approval. The approval is likely a few weeks off. Unvaccinated folks may be more open to receiving a conventional vaccine rather than the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna mRNA offerings. The Johnson & Johnson conventional vaccine (viral vector) was a bust with only about 10% or 20% efficacy so it fell by the wayside. Adding insult to injury, many people that received the Johnny John conventional shot then went on to receive the mRNA shots getting pumped with both. The Novavax data on the pre-omicron strains looks good but the big question is how will it perform against BA4 or BA5 or the next mutant that is on the way? First, the Novavax will have to get through the FDA and CDC emergency approval process and that does not occur until more data is provided and it will likely take a few more weeks for the data to be submitted. Considering the zeal, vigor and hype surrounding the Novavax shots, the Whitehouse must be desperate to get the 20% of unjabbed Americans jabbed. Will the unvaccinated take the Novavax shot? Some will. But, speaking from an unvaccinated perspective, if you live for today and do not worry about tomorrow, Novavax is not going to change your mind. Even the unjabbed people that profess an open mind about the Novavax shots will likely say they want to wait until they see what side effects appear. A great poll for KFF would be asking unvaccinated folks if they will take the Novavax shots. A check of the KFF website shows that 19% of Americans, about 1 in 5, definitely do not want vaccinated (17%) or will do so only if required (2%). It was the same number 20 months ago and will likely be the same number 20 months from now.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/12/22, at 3:00 AM EST: The US daily new cases this week are super important since they dictate whether the July 4th holiday weekend was a superspreader, or not, and chart the path forward for the remainder of the summer into the Fall. The 7-day MA for US daily cases is at 91K cases per day. The peak for US wave 7 thus far is 140K daily new cases on 6/23/22 now 18 days ago. The daily cases were in the 115K to 117K area late last week. Thus, laying out the ground rules for this week, US daily cases need to be below 91K each day to wave the victory banner over wave 7. If cases are between 91K and 120K, the wave 7 malaise will linger. If daily cases are over 120K, it spells significant infection trouble ahead and if any day forward is over 140K daily cases, that is disaster for the United States going forward (this worse case is not expected). Monday through Wednesday, especially today's (Tuesday) data, since it is 8 days after the holiday (a sweet spot for COVID-19 incubation and identifying superspreaders), will show a substantial increase in cases if the holiday weekend was a superspreader. All that said, what is the daily new cases number for Monday? Wow, it is surprising. Only 58K daily new cases for yesterday. The number will be revised but even it bumps up to 60K or so over the next couple days it is a very welcome sight. As stated, however, today's cases are the important number. Also, the Monday data in recent weeks is always below the Tuesday through Friday data. Nonetheless, 58K daily new cases is a positive sight and very encouraging for the United States going forward. Despite the increased transmissibility, the BA5 daily cases may be rolling over in short order (a few weeks) like the BA2 cases. It is a great way to start the day and week. Hopefully, the US daily cases for today, that will be known 24 hours from now, will be just as encouraging. Keep your fingers crossed since the path forward for US wave 7 may be far better than anyone expects. Today's daily cases will be key, but first blush says the holiday weekend is not a superspreader. We will not know for sure for 2 more days.US active cases are trying to flatten at 3.4 million which is better than the 3.5 million potential peak a few days ago. Victory is sealed against wave 7 when the active cases chart drops to form the coveted bell shape. 235 Americans continue dying day after day from COVID-19 as Sleepy Joe Biden is tilting at windmills.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/12/22, at 4:00 AM EST: For the love of Pete, what is going on in Germany? The Deutschland reports 154K daily new cases yesterday a new high for the current wave. Chancellor Schloz clutches his chest falling backwards onto the sofa asking if Merkel's number is on speed dial. Germany may be lumping weekend numbers in with the Monday tally accounting for some of the infections. Germany's average daily cases are over 90K per day for over 2 weeks running. 165 Germans die yesterday the death numbers creeping higher. Are the BA4 and BA5 bugs attacking the German physiques to a greater extent than the bodies of other nations and ethnicities? France and Italy remain challenged but do not report a big spike in daily cases yesterday like Germany. The French tend to be thinner due to their diet of wine, baguette and cigarettes. Iran cases pop to 2.4K yesterday with a new infection wave starting. Iraq is in bad shape with a new infection wave going parabolic at over 4K cases per day. Iran and Iraq need to be on the bad country list above. The BA4 and BA5 bugs are infecting the Middle East. Israel remains challenged by the current infection wave. Japan reports 51K daily new cases another high for the current wave that is parabolic. Shanghai is amess reporting 4 consecutive days of over 50 cases per day. Mass testing is underway in the city as residents fear more draconian lockdowns. Guatemala is averaging nearly 4K daily new cases per day the most of the entire pandemic and these infections migrate north into Mexico where cases continue higher.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 7/12/22, at 7:30 AM EST: As US wave 7 continues, the Whitehouse wants the fourth vaccine shot, the booster-booster, to be available to all Americans. The booster-booster is currently recommended for people over 50 years old and those with underlying health problems. Biden and the CDC see US hospitalizations rising creating angst over the BA5 subvariant. On the positive side, the hospitalizations take a small tick lower over the last day; a great development that is even better since the initial tick lower actually occurred 2 or 3 days ago because the CDC data is shamefully slow to update. US hospital admissions, that lead hospitalizations by 3 or 4 days, are also taking a tick lower which is actually 2 or 3 days ago. This is good news in real-time since Whitehouse officials and medical folks are most worried about rising hospitalizations the new favorite metric (there is no better metric for forecasting infection wave behavior than daily new cases; everything else lags). The FDA and CDC would need to sign off on a plan to expand the booster-booster shots. Why is the Whitehouse dictating to the medical people what they want? It cheapens the process and destroys credibility as if Biden requests something and the FDA and CDC will manipulate data and come to that conclusion to approve the booster-booster's for everyone. It is an incestuous relationship. If the fourth shot is the greatest thing since sliced bread, why has it not been in the works for general approval already? The messaging concerning vaccine science is probably best coming from the FDA and CDC rather than the Whitehouse. If bungling Biden is dictating who gets boosters, how many shots, and when, that is enough to turn people off from wanting anymore of the jabs. Millions of Americans have not taken the booster (third) shot as yet let alone a fourth. The Whitehouse must want everyone to get the mRNA booster-booster (fourth) into their bodies to make way for the fifth shot, the booster-booster-booster, coming in September and October. It is ridiculous after a while, but it is real life. Americans should take a deep breath, relax, and carry on with life and fun. Simply try to remain socially distant from one another as best you can for the rest of the month, that's all.
Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/12/22: As Tuesday Afternoon plays out, CDC Director Walensky is urging Americans to stay on guard due to the BA4 and BA5 subvariants. She wants folks to get their booster shots and encourages masks in high-risk zones. Walensky says anyone that has not had the booster (third) shot is not up to date on their COVID-19 regimen. Walensky proclaims, "Staying up to date on your COVID-19 vaccines provides the best protection against severe outcomes." Both Dr's Walensky and Fauci say hospitalizations are increasing but, as provided above, both the admissions and hospitalizations are actually starting to curl over. The latest CDC data, however, shows the uptrend remaining in place for admissions and hospitalizations so the charts are juking and jiving. The CDC needs to improve their data analysis and charting. US hospitalizations are trying to level-out at 30K. Whitehouse COVID-19 Response Coordinator Dr Jha says the 281 American deaths per day are preventable. If this is the case, let's prevent them! Jha then touts the magical solution to stop the deaths; vaccines. It is so predictable. The Whitehouse is the one-trick pony vaccine-only strategy. If people are unvaccinated and contract covid, how does a vaccine help them? It does not. So it is a lie that the deaths are preventable. Deaths can be stopped if Paxlovid pills and monoclonal antibody treatment options are provided in robust supplies and the populations educated on what to do if they test positive. Sitting in an Ivory Tower and telling folks to get vaccinated is all well and good but it does nothing to stop Americans from dying right now. Jha decrees that a vaccine "could save your life." So could Paxlovid. So could bebtelovimab mAb treatment. Your life cold also be saved from COVID-19 if you are not overweight and obese, unfortunately, 4 out of 5 of you reading this are. Fauci cheerleads vaccines and the importance of staying up to date. Fauci has taken 4 mRNA shots up through the booster-booster and it results in 2 separate COVID-19 illnesses. Fauci says, "Variants will continue to emerge" but "don't let it disrupt our lives." Walensky declares that the Americans over 50 years old that take the booster-booster shot (fourth) are 4 times less likely to die than folks with one booster (3 shots). Come on, now. This is starting to sound like voodoo science. Walensky says 80% of the new infections are the BA4 and BA5 subvariants. Very few Americans are following the comments or listening to the officials anymore unless it is a 10-second sound bite on a news show.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/13/22, at 3:30 AM EST: The US reports 95K daily new cases yesterday a welcome sight that is below the 7-day MA trend line at 102K cases per day. The weekend case numbers are bumped substantively higher with Saturday at 103K cases and Sunday at 79K cases. These are increased infections due to the social activity on the July 4th holiday weekend. The Independence Day holiday is similar to the Memorial Day holiday weekend with cases rising during the incubation period but not in a huge enough amount to deem it a superspreader as yet. Today's cases are important as well as any further revisions. It is not good to see substantive revisions to case numbers because it is indicative of a strong infection wave. US wave 7 will not die. It keeps lining out sideways, nor worsening, but not getting better. The 7-day MA for US daily new cases has been running sideways at about 100K cases per day since mid-May; for almost 2 months! Wave 7 is characterized by its long flat top that remains stubborn and unwilling to fall away. All the other waves hit their peaks and dropped. The difference now is that the US wave 7 represents the BA2 Omicron Subvariant during April and May (that America was getting a handle on), but then infections increase in June adn July as BA4 and BA5, mainly the nasty BA5, gain control extending wave 7 creating the long flat (potential) top. The jury remains out if the sideways action is a plateau (top), or, if it is simply a consolidation zone and the infections will break out to new highs (probably the former not the latter). 250 Americans continue dying from COVID-19 each day. The southern states remain in trouble. Kentucky reports nearly 4K cases yesterday a big spike higher the most for the current wave. Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas and others report a pop in cases yesterday but the cases remain below the peak days a few days earlier. Wyoming is improving but a setback occurs with rampant infections in the prison system. New York and New Jersey report only modest bumps in cases nothing to get excited about. Remember, these 2 states were the first hit by the BA2 Omicron Subvariant little sister wave that then filtered across the United States. Other states in the Midwest and South, however, are getting hit with the increased BA5 infections that now have dominance over BA2 so their waves are not predominantly BA2 instead the combination of BA2/BA4/BA5. The concern is that the BA5 infections may ripple backwards and reinfect the northeastern states but so far this is not the case and New Jersey and New York are hanging in their fine. Vermont and New Hampshire are in great shape with miniscule case counts. This is important because it hints that a person can be infected with either BA2, BA4 or BA5, and any one may prevent the person from becoming reinfected with one of the other subvariants. The scientists will have to figure it out. Also, due to data lag, perhaps a lot more BA4 and BA5 infections were occurring in the northeastern states in May and June than thought. There are other factors in play such as vaccines and natural immunity. The flat sideways nature of US wave 7 hints that America's herd immunity is holding the line against the BA2, BA4 and BA5 onslaught. Montana reports a new high in cases for the current wave at 2.2K cases but this is now a weekly number. Thus, Montana is at about 300 cases per day and this is confirmed with the 7-day MA trend line at 314 cases per day moving sideways with an upward bias. California continues struggling averaging over 19K cases per day, 20% of the US cases. The Golden State continues to have the dubious distinction of accounting for 1 in every 5 new covid cases in America. Texas is averaging near 12K cases per day another high for the current wave. The Lonestar State accounts for 13%, or 1 in every 8 new cases, in America. Florida bumps along sideways at 11K cases per day which is 12% of the US cases; 1 in every 9 new infections are occurring in the Sunshine State. California, Texas and Florida account for 44%, nearly one-half, of the new US infections.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/13/22, at 4:00 AM EST: Dirtbag Dictator Putin, that has reigned terror down upon Ukraine since late February, almost a 5-month war now, plans to travel to Iran to secure a deal on drones that he can weaponize and use against Ukraine. Iran reports 3.6K daily new COVID-19 cases the most for the new infection wave that only started a few days ago. Murderer Putin, that has lived the entire pandemic in an isolation bubble paranoid that he will contract COVID-19 due to his underlying health conditions and likely suppressed immune system (if he is taking chemo or other drugs), is unaware that he is flying into a covid-infected nest early next week. It will be a sight. No one should ever wish harm on another human since karma will get you, but the world would not lose any sleep if Vlad becomes deathly sick with covid next week (it may help end the horrific Ukraine War).
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/13/22, at 4:30 AM EST: The world's daily new cases remain at an elevated 837K cases per day. The rate of increase in cases is slowing which hints that a potential flattening of global daily cases is on the come. Worldwide deaths sneak higher to 1,505 souls per day the highest death rate in 6 weeks. Global citizens need Paxlovid and monoclonal antibody infusions to save their lives. A vaccine is not helpful if you are sick with COVID-19, lying on a hospital bed and gasping for breath. Also, it is not helpful for doctors, scientists and healthcare providers to stand over the dying patient, wagging fingers, telling him he should have got vaccinated. The world has moved on from COVID-19 and many people are resigned to the fact that if they get it, they get it. The death rates are nowhere near the peaks of other waves so global citizens are starting to consider COVID-19 in the same context as the regular flu. Germany remains a mess reporting 154K daily new cases another high for the current wave. France reports a big 182K cases teasing towards the 207K cases high for the current wave. Boom. Italy reports 143K daily new cases the highest for the current wave. The clock just fell off the wall in Pope Francis's office. 30% of the cases worldwide are in France, 25% in Germany and 23% in Italy. What is this all about? 78%, call it 80%, or 4 out of every 5 new COVID-19 infections worldwide are in Germany, France or Italy. Australia cases continue higher at 39K cases per day and New Zealand is running higher towards 11K cases per day. Malaysia reports over 3.1K cases per day ramping higher. Brazil crosses the 33 million total COVID-19 cases milestone as daily new cases continue sideways at 56K cases per day. Bolivia reports over 3K daily new cases the highest for the current wave not seen since April. Oh no. Guatemala reports over 6.6K daily new cases the most of the entire pandemic. It is as if someone is shipping, flying and bussing disease into Guatemala. Mexico's cases continue higher at 24K per day. Canada reports 12K cases the most since April with cases averaging 4.8K per day heading higher.
Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/13/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The monkeypox outbreak continues around the world with 750 cases in the United States. New York set up a website for monkeypox vaccinations that crashes. American mediocrity is on full display daily. Monkeypox spreads through close contact especially among gay men. The gay dudes are probably in constant contact with each other on social internet so once the website was available, the word likely spread like wildfire through the gay community and everyone ran to the site crashing the servers. If people were on the ball, no pun intended, and they know monkeypox spreads predominantly through gay activities, it would be a no-brainer to phase the program in over a few days (so as not to overwhelm the servers) using the alphabetical order of last names (A through F on the first day, then G through P the second day, etc...). There are therapeutics and vaccines available for monkeypox but the problem is getting the help to people that need it (logistics). Sound familiar? It is the same reason over 2 hundo Americans continue dying per day from COVID-19 when the treatments to keep them alive are available (Paxlovid and bebtelovimab). America's wealthy class do not die from covid since they have easy access to any treatment or therapy they desire. The poor die.
Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 7/13/22: President Biden travels to the Middle East to escape the bad news on inflation that is running at a 40-year high. Biden visits Israel that is fighting a COVID-19 outbreak. Biden then travels to Saudi Arabia on Friday where he will kneel and kiss Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud's arse. MBS ordered the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. Biden called Saudi Arabia a "pariah" nation but now goes hat and hand to retract that statement and kiss the Arab's feet begging for more oil. The US can be energy independent again by simply opening the US oil fields and restarting the pipeline projects. Instead, Biden shames the United States kneeling before a murderer. The Whitehouse said Biden will not shake hands on the trip and fist bump instead due to the ongoing outbreaks of the BA2, BA4 and BA5 subvariants, but the senile old chap cannot remember the instructions and is hugging and shaking people's hands in Israel. Aids keep whispering reminders in his ear so he is back to using fist bumps. Biden set up a straw man with the handshake stuff; he simply wants an excuse to not shake MBS's hand if he is put in this position.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/14/22, at 4:00 AM EST: The US reports 108K daily new cases yesterday below Tuesday's 121K cases. The July 4th holiday results in a bump higher in cases but is not a superspreader event. The numbers would be expected to be far higher if rampant infections were occurring after the holiday. The cases on Saturday and Sunday are revised higher to 122K and 95K, respectively, no doubt due to infections from the holiday. This coming weekend's numbers will need to be lower which they likely will. Eight days is typically a sweet spot for the COVID-19 incubation period after an event where a noticeable large pop in cases will appear. Tuesday, 7/12/22 is 8 days after July 4th and it was 121K cases and comparable to Saturday's cases. Think about it. On the Independence Day weekend, almost all of America was out and interacting at parties, picnics, barbecues and memorial events. It is nice to see the case numbers remaining below the prior week after the millions of contacts occur on the holiday weekend although today and Friday have to play out. The July 4th holiday is a repeat of the Memorial Day party weekend. Cases bump higher in the 4 to 10-day incubation period but not substantively. With over a couple hundred million Americans milling about on the holiday weekend and at fireworks celebrations on 7/4/22, a wild increase in daily new cases may have occurred but did not. The peak days for US wave 7 right now are 142K and 144K cases on 7/7/22 and 7/8/22 (Thursday and Friday). Thus, daily cases must remain below 142K for today and tomorrow, which is likely, and this paints a constructive path forward where the case counts will likely begin falling away. The bad news is the 7-day MA for US daily new cases rises to 118K cases per day the highest for wave 7 comparing back to February. One year ago, the 7-day MA was 26K cases per day; now it is almost 5 times higher. The trend line averages the last 7 days so it is now factoring in the two peak days of 142K and 144K cases late last week. If today's and tomorrow's cases are below 120K, the 7-day MA will roll over lower again going forward. It will be bad news if the daily new cases are above 120K for today or tomorrow. US active cases bump higher to 3.6 million a bad development but again reflective of the bad week of data last week. 407 Americans roll over dead from COVID-19 during the last 24 hours with the 7-day MA above 3 hundo at 315 dead bodies per day. It is shameful and reflective of a clueless government bureaucracy.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/14/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The world reports over 1 million daily new cases yesterday with the 7-day MA at 865K cases per day. Germany reports over 150K cases per day each day this week. Europe remains under siege from BA4 and BA5. The wheels fall off in Japan reporting over 68K daily new cases yesterday a big spike higher. The countries that shielded their populations from COVID-19 are now paying the price. Australia reports over 44K cases yesterday the most since May. New Zealand reports nearly 12K daily new cases yesterday. In South America, Brazil's cases remain elevated. Bolivia reports another record day of cases for the new infection wave. Bang. Guatemala reports a horrendous 7.7K cases yesterday by far the worse day of the pandemic. Boom. Mexico reports over 36K daily new cases with infections spreading out of control. The 36K cases is the highest for the current wave in Mexico and not seen since early February when their worst infection wave was starting to subside. Mexico and Guatemala are in serious covid trouble. 92 Mexicans die from China Virus yesterday the most deaths in over 3 months.
Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 7/14/22: Whitehouse COVID-19 Dr's Fauci and Jha are doing the rounds in media proclaiming that the "pandemic is not over" and Americans "should be wearing masks." The mask stuff is going over like a lead balloon. The 2 doctors fail to take the opportunity to provide a web address and train people to look at the CDC Community Transmission map. For people that profess science, they should follow it. 35% of the US counties are at high-risk infection levels (orange) so the doc's should state same (these are the counties were masks should be used indoors). 40% of the counties are in the medium-risk yellow range and these folks should consider wearing masks especially if immunocompromised (talk to your doctor and healthcare providers for advice). 25% of the counties in America are in the low-risk green range. The northeastern states, that were the first to get hit, mainly with the BA2 Omicron subvariant, are the great low-risk green color. Over 75% of the US counties, 3 in every 4, are at medium or high risk levels of COVID-19 infection. Not good. The CDC map is based on hospital admissions and beds data. Keystone's bad state list above, based on daily new cases, has 27 states remaining in covid trouble so that is 54% of the country. The CDC should use daily new cases for the community transmission map instead of admissions and beds. Don't you typically test positive (and registered as a new infection) for COVID-19 before you are admitted to the hospital? No need to wonder what came first, the chicken or the egg. You know it was daily new cases that came first and are the best metric for infection wave forecasting.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/15/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The United States crosses the 91 million total COVID-19 infections milestone and 1.048 million dead grim milestone. The US reports 95K daily new cases yesterday. It is great that the cases are sub 100K but the bad news is that the revisions keep coming in which indicates that the infection spread continues at a robust pace. The peak day thus far for the lingering US wave 7 remains last Friday, 7/8/22, at 151K cases. Saturday was 131K cases. Monday was 100K, Tuesday, the expected big day after the holiday weekend, is at 130K cases, a big number but below Saturday and Friday. Wednesday is at 121K cases, which will likely see another small bump higher in a revision, and yesterday's cases are 95K. There is no doubt that the July 4th party weekend from 7/1/22 through 7/4/22 results in a bump higher in cases, just like after Memorial Day, but the good thing is that none of the numbers this week so far exceed last Friday's 151K cases. 2 weeks after the Memorial Day party weekend the daily new cases were falling away again but then the BA4 and BA5 subvariants started accelerating their dirty work extending wave 7. Using the Memorial Day fractal, US cases should subside for wave 7, and be on the downside path, from about 7/18/22 forward (next week). The only obstacle in the way of the happy ending, or beginning of the end, of wave 7 is today's daily new cases. Roll those dice, baby! Momma needs a new pair of shoes! If the daily new cases for today (Friday) are below 100K, that will be fantastic and confirm the beginning of the end of wave 7. If today's cases remain below the 7-day MA (that remains at its high for wave 7) at 119K cases per day, that will be good news too and create a positive path ahead. If cases come in above 119K, however, that would be terrible news and extend the potential wave 7 top for another week or two. If daily new cases are over 151K, that will suck to put it bluntly. If today's cases take out last Friday's peak high for wave 7, the United States will be mired in wave 7 misery well into August. Keep your fingers crossed. Today's daily new cases decides the fate of wave 7 going forward. California crosses the 93,000 total China Virus deaths grim milestone as the Golden State tries to defeat the current infection wave averaging 17K cases per day. Damn. Texas reports 15K daily new cases yesterday a big number pulling the 7-day MA higher to 12.3K cases per day. The migrant crisis, another Biden blunder, is complicating the spread of the COVID-19 cases in the southern border states. New Mexico remains challenged at about 1K daily new covid cases per day for the last month.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/15/22, at 6:00 AM EST: Where's Xi? The dirtbag CCP dictator emerges after disappearing since the Hong Kong visit 2 weeks ago. Did China's Dictator Xi contract the China Virus in Hong Kong? The top Hong Kong official he met with did. There is a high likelihood that the scumbag dictator caught COVID-19 and hid away for 14 days to recover. Xi is giving a speech at a museum today and looks the same. He may be a couple pounds lighter and his speech a touch slower but overall he looks his normal Winnie-the-Pooh self (the cartoon is banned in China). Obviously, especially in a communist-controlled state, Dictator Xi cannot tell the Chinese people that he had China Virus since he would look like a fool while touting the success of the zero-covid strategy (which is a failure). China's problems continue with a new wave of infections starting to grip the commie nation.
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/15/22, at 6:30 AM EST: The world reports 2 days of daily new cases over 1 million and the 7-day MA is up to 890K cases per day. The covid nightmare, spawned from the Wuhan Laboratories, continues day after day. 1.6K global citizens are dying from COVID-19 per day the highest average since May. The covid struggles continue in Europe and South and Central America. Boom. Australia reports 47K daily new cases the most for the new infection wave not seen since May. Is the land Down Under going to lock up their Aussie population again? You better run and take cover as Colin sings. Oh no. The Aussies are dropping like flies probably because they tried to shield themselves from covid over the last 2-1/2 years. 81 Aussies croak yesterday from China Virus big numbers for the continent now averaging about 50 covid deaths per day moving higher. Where's Prime Minister Albanese? He's with New Zealand's Ardern talking climate change; Tweedledumb and Tweedledumber. The level of incompetence in world leaders is astounding. New Zealand's daily new cases are running over 10K per day for the last week. Ardern should be focused on helping the hospitals and clinics cope with the patient load rather than tilting at windmills and solar cells. Hong Kong is in a new infection wave at over 3K cases per day, small numbers, but the new wave is just starting (after Xi's trip 2 weeks ago). Xi brings covid infections to Hong Kong. It does not matter since they are all communists now. India's ongoing new wave remains small case numbers at about 18K cases per day. India needs to tell the rest of the world what they are doing to keep the case numbers in check (or is it the calm before the storm when case numbers will begin taking off higher?). Pharmaceutical giant Glenmark, an Indian multinational, is working with Canadian biotech firm SanNOtize (note the emphasize on 'NO' for nitrous oxide) developing and testing a nitric oxide nasal spray, brand name FabiSpray, with great success as published in the Lancet Journal. Boom. Japan is in serious trouble reporting 93K daily new cases yesterday challenging peak levels of the pandemic. The new infection wave is parabolic at over 58K cases per day. 29 Japanese die from COVID-19 yesterday with the death numbers creeping higher. Bang. Mexico reports 37K cases yesterday another big high for the current wave that is spiraling out of control. Guatemala is a disaster reporting over 7.5K daily new cases yesterday another record high for the pandemic. Is someone shipping infections into Guatemala? What is going on there?
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/15/22, at 8:30 AM EST: President Biden meets with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas in Bethlehem and of course the two shake hands. So much for Biden's no handshake policy on the trip. Hopefully, Sleepy Joe does not contract COVID-19 on his Middle East trip. The next stop is Saudi Arabia where Biden will kiss the MBS ring asking for more oil when the United States has all the oil and natural gas it needs at home. Wouldn't it be Ironic, as Alanis sings, if Biden got sick with covid on a trip that he did not have to take but only did so for the sole purpose of continuing his inflation-blame narrative. Joe "Herbert Hoover" Biden says the runaway inflation is everyone else's fault and has nothing to do with his massive fiscal stimulus in 2021 and his destruction of the vital American oil and gas industry over the last year (oil, gasoline, diesel fuel, natural gas and coal deliver heat, light and all goods and services; take them away and create disastrous life-changing inflation).
Note Added Friday Morning, 7/15/22, at 11:00 AM EST: WHO Director Dr Tedros says COVID-19 cases rise worldwide for the fifth straight week. Tedros proclaims, "COVID-19 is nowhere near over. As the virus pushes us, we must push back."
Note Added Friday Afternoon, 7/15/22: The US government accuses Arizona of misusing COVID-19 relief funds and threatens to withhold future funding. The Biden administration backs off the accusations and provides money to the southern border state. Sleepy Joe has his panties in a bunch because Arizona used some money to push back against the mask mandates in schools. The Biden administration extends the COVID-19 health emergency for 3 more months and decrees, "The Public Health Emergency (PHE) declaration continues to provide us with tools and authorities needed to respond to the highly transmissible COVID-19 subvariants that are currently circulating around the country. The PHE provides essential capabilities and flexibilities to hospitals to better care for patients, particularly if we were to see a significant increase in hospitalizations in the coming weeks."
Note Added Friday Evening, 7/15/22: An ABC News article says the menstrual cycles of 42% of women are impacted after receiving COVID-19 vaccines. Blood flow is heavier than normal. The woke *ssholes use the wording "42% of people" in the article which is laughable but at the same time a sad commentary on society. Hey jackasses, women have periods, men don't. It does not matter how you present yourself in society; you can have spiked orange hair and wear a tutu if you want, no one cares, go for it, but if you are a biological female you have periods and if a biological male, you do not. Capeesh? Do you need it explained again?
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/16/22, at 3:30 AM EST: Friday is typically the largest data day of the week so the cases for yesterday are much anticipated. The US reports 94K daily new cases yesterday. Thursday's cases are revised higher to 108K about a 15K increase. Things are looking good. Tuesday was 132K cases (this is the sweet spot 8-day incubation period after July 4th where a big day was predicted and expected and it occurred). Wednesday was 123K cases. Thursday 108K cases. Friday 94K cases. That is a groovy trend lower as the week played out. The Thursday and Friday numbers will likely bump higher with revisions but the stage is set for wave 7 to subside going forward. The infections from the holiday weekend have filtered through the system and it is amazing that with over 200 million people out and about interacting between 7/1/22 and 7/4/22, the bump in daily new cases afterwards is modest. It is good news. The peak day for wave 7 is 151K cases on Friday, 7/8/22, and this Friday, one week later, cases are 94K (will probably bump up to 110K or so when revisions are made, hopefully, not higher) a joyful sight. The 7-day MA for US daily new cases is at 113K cases per day a hair off its peak for a couple days at 119K cases per day. The Biden administration makes zero progress in reducing the ongoing COVID-19 death rate of 300 souls per day for the last 3 months. Texas is not doing well reporting over 14K cases for Friday with its wave 7 expanding to almost 13K cases per day on average. The Guatemala, Mexico and southern United States is a high infection zone. California cases are subsiding since the peaks of 24K cases on 7/1/22 and 22K cases on 7/9/22. California reports only 9K cases yesterday. The picture is encouraging but Los Angeles County says it is in the high-risk infection range where masks are recommended and the officials will decide over the next 2 weeks if masks should be mandatory indoors. If California improves, there will be no need for any mandate garbage. 'Mandate' has become a dirty and controversial word during the 2-1/2 year pandemic. Florida is having trouble tamping down its wave 7 outbreak with the 7-day MA for daily new cases up to 11.2K cases per day the high for the wave. Americans are flocking to Florida for vacations so it makes sense that the infection level remains high refusing to retreat. Cases are moving sideways and not increasing any significant amount which is a positive. The states in the South remain challenged as do the southern border states but all things considered, the news may improve from here forward adn wave 7 would be expected to start rolling over with daily new cases now. A wild card is the revisions to the Thursday and Friday cases which will be known over the next day or two.
Note Added Saturday Morning, 7/16/22, at 5:30 AM EST: The world reports another 1 million new China Virus infections yesterday with the 7-day MA up to 885K cases per day. 1,611 people die from COVID-19 worldwide yesterday; now up to a 1.6 handle a 9-week high. Japan reports a huge 97K daily new cases teasing pandemic record highs. The nations that were more protective of their populations during the pandemic such as Japan, China, Australia and New Zealand, are now getting smacked hard by the BA2, BA4 and especially the BA5 subvariants. Boom. Malaysia reports 5.2K cases yesterday a substantial spike higher with the 7-day MA up to 3.4K cases per day ramping higher. Malaysia has been proactive preparing for and fully knowing the new outbreak wave was in play but their efforts must increase as cases may be starting to accelerate higher. Bang. Philippines cases pop to 2.6K yesterday. Indonesia cases are rising. The numbers remain small compared to the prior waves for these three island nations but small numbers typically grow into big numbers. Oh no. South Korea tosses its hat into the covid misery ring reporting 40K cases per day for the last 4 days with the 7-day MA ramping higher at 30K cases per day. South Korea begins a new infection wave and will be added to the bad country list above. Oh my. Brazil reports 108K cases yesterday a big spike higher the most for the current wave that had showed hope of flattening. The clock falls off the wall in President Bolsonaro's office. Bolsonaro and Lula are in a heated election battle that is creating violence, even a murder, with hundreds of thousands of Brazilians in the streets protesting and rioting. COVID-19 is mingling in these crowds. Bolivia reports 4.2K cases yesterday a new high for the current wave. Mexico reports 35K cases another record high for the current wave that smacks into the southern US.
Note Added Saturday Afternoon, 7/16/22: Dr Marty Makary is interviewed by Tucker Carlson on Fox News (republican-run media) discussing the toddler vaccines. Makary says the CDC and FDA approve the toddler vaccines based on shaky science. If doctors speak out questioning the efficacy of the toddler vaccinations or lack of transparency of pandemic information, they are risking their jobs. Doctors and scientists are not allowed to speak directly to journalists. The communication directors screen what the doctors may say ahead of time. This is not the real America; this is a sick America. Makary says, "Leaders have to have more humility" and he is correct. A big problem during the pandemic is Fauci and others stating things as unequivocal facts when they are not. Their comments lose credibility over time and people stop listening when they are lied to, talked down to, and especially when the people doing the talking are exposed as liars.
Note Added Saturday Evening, 7/16/22, at 6:00 PM EST: Dr Fauci says the new BA5 subvariant is dominant in the US accounting for about 60% of the current infections (the CDC says it is two-thirds today; 66%) and BA4 and BA5 are over 80% of the new infections. Fauci is concerned about hospitalizations and deaths increasing. He suggests mass testing and booster shots as ways to mitigate the spread. Same-o stuff from the octogenarian that should have retired two decades ago.
Note Added Saturday Evening, 7/16/22, at 9:00 PM EST: The monkeypox outbreak continues around the world and cases arre higher in the US especially in New York City. Gay and bisexual men need to give the sofa gymnastics a rest for a couple weeks. The main transmission of monkeypox is occurring due to men having sex with each other, trading spits, sweating and comingling body fluids. The New York vaccination web site has now crashed 3 times displaying American mediocrity daily. Another stink develops since supplies of monkeypox vaccine are in short supply. The US only had the last 10 years to prepare for a widescale monkeypox outbreak. Medical officials told some monkeypox folks that only 1 shot was needed but now they say 2 shots are needed to receive the proper protection. Some officials were lying to stretch the vaccine use among more people. It is this type of dishonesty that has damaged the medical profession during the pandemic. It is reminiscent of perhaps the worst blunder of the pandemic when Fauci and Trump lied to the American people saying that masks were not needed for the new coronavirus hitting US shores in early 2020. The two bozo's lied to give the government a chance to buy up all available stocks of masks in the country and provide them to hospitals. Of course only a few hours after the lie, the news outlets are showing video of healthcare workers in hazmat suits handling coronavirus patients and the gig was up. Americans knew that Fauci and Trump lied. Instead of building an espirit de corps where the vast majority of Americans would have rallied together and hand-delivered masks to the hospitals to help out, the pandemic begins with a massive bold-faced lie and everything has been chaotic and confusing ever since. Sure, some individuals may have hoarded masks but they would have been found out fast enough. It shows you how stupid these people are with no understanding of human behavior; they live in Ivory Towers and view common people as too stupid to make their own decisions.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/17/22, at 4:00 AM EST: It is Sunday Morning, as Johnny sings, and the US reports a low 27K daily new cases for Saturday an expected low weekend number. The prior day's numbers bump higher with revisions but no biggie so far. Friday was 112K cases, Thursday 126K, Wednesday 141K. The individual peak in daily cases is the prior Friday, 7/8/22, at 151K cases. As long as the revisions do not push any of last week's cases over 151K, the US is showing a brighter path forward. The angst over the BA5 subvariant, however, is increasing and the media is gladly hyping the outbreak to attract eyeballs and generate more advertising money for their networks. The 7-day MA for US daily cases is 106K cases per day; it will be good news when this goes sub 100K. US deaths shamefully tag 400 bodies on Friday with about 300 Americans continuing to die from COVID-19 each day. It is sickening. The Biden administration, CDC and NIH incompetents keep saying the solution to bringing deaths down is for people to get vaccinated. It is sickening. During the entire 2-1/2 year pandemic the medical *ssholes have never told Americans to take charge of their own lives by losing weight, modifying diets, exercising and boosting immune systems with supplements and vitamins such as zinc, turmeric, selenium, colloidal silver, A, C, D-3, E, K-2 (take with zinc), quercetin (do not take at same time as ivermectin), etc.... Also, using HCQ and ivermectin as preventive and early treatments for COVID-19. Of course, any health plan needs to be discussed with your doctors and healthcare providers. Biden's vaccine-only strategy is not cutting it unless you own stock in casket-making companies. The US is dedicated to the vaccine-only strategy because the new mRNA vaccines can only receive emergency approval if no other treatments or therapies are available. This is the reason that alternative COVID-19 treatments are dissed, denigrated and called snake oil by the Biden gang, CDC, NIH and medical elite. It is sick stuff but it is the US drug and surgery model on full display daily. Telling people it is okay to be a fatty because they can be fed prescription drugs and be provided surgery options in the future to make sure they live a long life, is not okay. Do not buy into that type of existence. You do not want to live that way. Get up and walk around the block, drink a lot of water, eat healthy foods and reduce stress. Any bad habit can be broken if you diligently stick with a new plan every day for 2 to 3 weeks be it weight loss, smoking, drinking, too much caffeine, or any other habit. You can do it.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/17/22, at 4:30 AM EST: Texas is averaging almost 13K daily new cases per day heading higher. California is in bad shape at over 19K cases per day moving higher. Florida's daily cases are trying to flatten at 9.5K per day. New York is up to 7.4K cases per day a new infection wave is underway; call it wave 7b. The northeastern states were hit first with the BA2 Omicron Subvariant wave 7 and weathered the storm. As the virus spread throughout the United States, it morphed into a BA2/BA4/BA5 outbreak and now a BA5 dominant outbreak. The concern was that BA5 would back track into the northeastern states and unfortunately that is happening in New York and New Jersey. Vermont and New Hampshire are not impacted by a new outbreak. The bumps higher in cases in New York and New Jersey are not expected to last. The picture is better for several states across the South since the peak in daily new cases occurred during the week of 7/4/22 and last week's cases were lower. It is funny how the media is painting a picture of BA5 doom and gloom with Fauci, Jha and the gang proclaiming that four vaccinations will save everyone, but it is more likely that the worst may be over for wave 7 for many states. The CDC Community Transmission map is displayuing more orange (high infection rate) and yellow (medium infection rate) with the green (low-risk) counties decreasing. The data is always backwards looking and the map's metrics likely paint a worst picture than is actually occurring. The CDC may want to rethink the ranges of hospitalizations and beds they use in the calculations. 35% of US counties are at high-risk infection levels and 40% at medium risk for a total of 75% or 3 out of every 4 counties in America. The CDC recommends masking indoors in the high-risk areas which is one-third of the US counties.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/17/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The world's COVID-19 daily new cases are not improving but at least they are not getting worse and trying to flatten-out at 873K cases per day. The cases have to flatten before they can roll over lower. Ba-boom! Brazil's daily new cases explode higher to 108K cases yesterday. Brazil is in a new COVID-19 battle as the population is in the street protesting with new elections on the come. The riots and daily interactions by the crowds lead to more coronavirus infections. Brazil accounts for about 12% of the new covid infections worldwide; 1 in every 8 new cases. Bolivia reports over 4.4K daily new cases another new high for the current wave. The outbreak in Paraguay worsens. South America is under siege. Peru and Ecuador also report new highs in cases for the current waves. The outbreaks in Guatemala and Mexico are worsening and no doubt leading to more cases in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California due to the southern border migrant crisis. Japan reports a huge 99K daily cases with only 3 days in February at higher levels for the pandemic. Japan's new infection wave hits super fast so their hospitals and clinics must be going crazy. In only 2 weeks, Japan's daily new COVID-19 cases skyrocket from about 20k to nearly 100K cases. Covid trouble continues in Australia and New Zealand while the idiot leaders spend their time, effort and taxpayer money on climate change. New Zealand crosses the 1.5 million total COVID-19 cases milestone. Where's Ardern? Sleeping? Singapore takes a turn for the worse with cases increasing. New waves are underway in Malaysia, Indonesia and Philippines and expected to worsen over the next couple weeks. Europe may be finally turning the corner with their nasty BA5 waves. France peaked with daily cases on 7/5/22 (so far). Italy remains in bad shape.
Note Added Sunday Morning, 7/17/22, at 11:00 AM EST: Dr Jha appears on ABC television (democrat-run media) and decrees that "BA5 is the most transmissible" COVID-19 strain. Jha says the BA5 subvariant is "the most immune evasive" strain of the pandemic. This is incorrect. If you look at the US total cases chart (cumulative daily new cases), waves 3 and 6 display steeper slopes than the current wave 7 (7a and 7b). In respect to immune invasion, breakthrough cases began appearing during 2021 as the initial shot series wore-off on the senior population that was vaccinated first so waves 5, 6 and 7 are the only 3 subject to potential immune evasion since the vaccines have only been in use for about 1-1/2 years. The B11529 Botswana/South Africa Variant, now dubbed BA1 Omicron Subvariant, wave 6, was the worst infection wave thus far, not the current wave 7. Jha and the gang are likely trying to hype the outbreak to encourage people to get vaccinated and to get more funding from Congress; same-o worn-out story. He says there are "high levels of reinfection" occurring. Also, "a lot of breakthrough infections." Jha proclaims, "People are not up to date on their vaccinations." Jha tells Americans "50 years old and older (to) go get a shot now!" Jha decrees, "This is a virus that is still evolving rapidly." He says, "We still have work to do" and the country must "stay focused" on the pandemic. Tell that to Alzheimer Joe Biden that is ignoring the pandemic instead tilting at windmills in the Rose Garden a la Don Quixote. Jha proclaims, "If over 50 and no shot this year, get a shot now! It is critically important." Fauci receives the same talking points decreeing that 'BA5 is the most immune evasive strain of the pandemic'. Interestingly, the talking heads and surrogates are now using the wording that the vaccines 'provide a buffer against severe illness and death'. First it was one shot and you do not have to worry about COVID-19 ever. Then it was a 2-shot series. Then breakthrough cases started occurring so the officials said sure, you can still get the virus, but you cannot transmit it. Wrong. The medical officials then say you can still get the virus and transmit it, even after 4 shots, but the vaccines protect against severe illness and death. Now they are backpedaling from this statement. What will they have if 4 shots of the mRNA serum do not protect against infection, transmission or perhaps severe illness and death? Former FDA head Dr Gottlieb appears on CBS television (democrat-run media) repeating the message that 'if you are over 50 years old and did not receive a vaccination this year, get one'. None of the talking heads on the Sunday morning political news shows instruct the public on the Paxlovid and bebtelovimab mAb treatments if a person tests positive for COVID-19. It is sickening but it is America in 2022. The vaccine narrative is pumped 24/7 by the people in charge but that is zero help for an unvaccinated person that contracts covid. The Whitehouse, CDC and NIH are not helping Americans that become ill with China Virus as proven by the month's long elevated death rate. Americans need to reference the Therapeutics Locator and identify the nearest facilities that offer the Paxlovid anti-viral oral pills and bebtelovimab monoclonal antibody treatments. Take charge of your own destiny. If you test positive with a home test or otherwise, demand fast treatment. EARLY TREATMENT has always been the key to saving lives from COVID-19. Every minute counts after you test positive so do not take no for an answer if your doctor gives you the runaround. Find a doctor that can help you.
Note Added Sunday Afternoon, 7/17/22: Federal Trade Commission (FTC) data show that the number of phone, email and text scams in America have doubled over the last 5 years another pandemic casualty. People have been isolated over the last 2-1/2 years making them more susceptible to the nefarious solicitations occurring via the phone and internet. The scammers make people think they are in trouble, or owe money perhaps to the IRS. The IRS will only contact Americans through the US mail with a letter stating the problem. The IRS never communicates via phone, email or text so if you receive one of these communications, immediately delete them and never click any links.
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/18/22, at 3:00 AM EST: The China Virus infections are increasing in China. The Guangxi area is under lockdown. Ditto gaming-hub Macao where the casinos are now closed. Foreign tourists are in lockdown in Macao. Do not have pity for idiots that travel into communist China when a pandemic is raging. CNN (democrat media) reports that 2K tourists are stranded in Beihai a resort town in southern China. Nine major cities are undergoing mass testing and in some level of lockdowns or partial lockdowns. It is a mess. Dirtbag Dictator Xi sticks to his failed zero-covid strategy that wreaks economic harm domestically and internationally. China reports the worst quarter for growth in 2 years. At the same time, China's banking system may collapse. The filthy CCP has frozen the bank accounts for millions of Chinese folks since April. Desperate people are protesting and rioting at banks which is unheard of in China. The demonstrators are beat by police and hauled away to jail. A few ugly videos have leaked out of China showing the violence occurring in front of the PBOC building. The Peoples Bank of China is China's central bank like the Federal Reserve (Fed; FOMC) in America, Bank of Japan (BOJ) and European Central Bank (ECB). The corrupt institutions that print fiat money like madmen are the four horseman of the coming worldwide financial apocalypse. China reports over 1K new COVID-19 cases on the weekend; 580 on Saturday and 510 on Sunday. The CCP lies about everything so the actual case numbers are far higher. The cases are running above 500 for today continuing the worsening trend. Exacerbating China's COVID-19 outbreak is the extreme heat. People waiting in long lines for testing are suffering heat-related illnesses. The CCP henchmen in the white protective jump suits manhandling the Chinese people are suffering heat stroke due to their non-breathable plastic garb. Chinese folks are not shedding any tears for the 'white-coats' that lock them up in apartments, hassle them on the street, kill their pets and drag them from their homes placing them into detention camps, er isolation facilities. The countries that shielded their populations from COVID-19 are having the toughest time with the BA4 and BA5 infection wave since there is very little natural immunity protection. In China, the vaccines provide the only protection against the virus and the shots are junk. Boom. Japan's new infection wave is parabolic with no end in sight. Japan reports 105K daily new cases; over one hundo thousand! There is only one other day with higher cases during the entire pandemic and that is 2/6/22 at 106K cases. Japan may report the highest cases ever any day forward. Tokyo raises its COVID-19 alarm level but the outbreak is already far along with an exponential infection rate. Unlike the US, Japan is definitely seeing immune evasion with the worst infection wave of the pandemic in progress. Australia's daily cases continue higher at 41K per day and New Zealand remains a mess at over 10K cases per day.
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/18/22, at 4:00 AM EST: The world is averaging 855K daily new cases per day. Despite this lousy elevated number and 3 days last week of over 1 million cases, the highest individual day for the current wave is 1.1 million cases on 7/7/22 now 12 days, almost 2 weeks, in the rearview mirror. This behavior hints that the daily new cases for the world are likely beginning to roll over lower. It is good news but tentative since the cases continue teasing the 1 million mark. If the daily cases are under 1 million each day in the week ahead, the world will be on the mend going forward. Germany's peak in daily new cases is 155K on 7/11/22, last Monday. If Germany's cases today are under 155K, it will create a positive path forward. Germany lumps the weekend numbers into Monday which creates the high numbers for the first day of the week. France is improving with daily cases averaging 96K per day heading lower. Italy continues struggling at 94K daily cases per day. The UK is improving quickly with cases averaging 9.1K per day well off the 28.0K per day less than 2 weeks ago. It is fantastic to see the quick improvement in daily cases for the UK since that wave behavior may appear in the United States and elsewhere. BA5's bark may be worse than its bite after all. Russia reports 4.7K cases yesterday the most since May but the numbers remain small.
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/18/22, at 5:00 AM EST: The US reports 25K daily new cases for Sunday an expected low weekend number. The revisions are behaving themselves with Thursday at 126K cases and Friday now at 112K cases. About 20K in revisions occur for the Friday number that remains below the numbers earlier in the week, and below the prior Friday's peak at 151K cases. It is good stuff but with the 7-day MA at 95K cases per day trying to retreat lower, the cases must come in under 95K each day ahead to pull the moving average lower. The covid situation in America appears more positive than depicted on US television. US active cases are trying to flatten. The picture may improve greatly this week as the doom and gloom hits fever pitch. It is always darkest before the light. Doctors and scientists are focused on hospital admissions but should realize the CDC data they are looking at is a week old. Interestingly, the chart for the seniors 70 years and older show hospital admissions rolling over to the downside. It is fantastic news but using the CDC data is like driving a car 50 MPH (80 KPH) down the road looking in the rearview mirror. US hospitalizations are trying to level-out in the 31K-32K range so this is an important metric but this data is a week old. Chart-wise, hospital admissions precede hospitalizations by 3 or 4 days.
Note Added Monday Morning, 7/18/22, at 6:00 AM EST: Biden's approval rating falls to new lows, if that is possible, after the Middle East trip where he knelt to kiss the Saudi's feet. The president's approval is underwater (less than 50%) in 44 states. He's toast. Even democrats do not want the confused Alzheimer dude to run again in 2024. Biden promised to handle the pandemic instead he ignores the ongoing coronavirus trouble and pursues a radical and misguided climate change agenda creating disastrous inflation. Biden seals his fate as the modern-day Herbert Hoover.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.