Tuesday, February 16, 2021

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Price Extended



The SPX weekly chart is posted a few charts back so no need to repeat that but you may want to check it out to come up to speed. Remember; all the chart indicators on the SPX daily chart are negatively diverged wanting a spankdown to occur. All chart indicators on the SPX weekly are also neggie d sans the MACD line. Now do you remember? When Keystone was explaining it, your eyes were glazing over.

A smackdown should occur now. Today was OpEx Tuesday to Wednesday buoyancy with the SPX printing another new all-time record high at 3950.43. When price drops, there are two potential paths; purple which is down, down, down, the multi-week slide simply makes lower lows and lower highs for several weeks, or, blue which is down but back up due to the long and strong MACD on the weekly chart above and at that time the MACD will go neggie d and the multi-week selloff begins from the matching price high at the little red arrow on the right, about a week or two out.

There are 3 more trading days this week. If the bears want to do serious damage, they need to turn that MACD line negative. You have to squint but if you stare at that brown circle you can see the tiny green line signifying that the MACD line is up a tiny hair. This week's candlestick already prints the matching price high so that box is checked. Ditto the other chart indicators that are all neggie d except the MACD. This is a multi-week top that is being placed now and in a couple days you will know if it down all the way or if it may jog again for a couple weeks (down-up) for the top.

So this analysis takes it for granted that the selloff in stocks will begin now, and as stocks drop, say, for a few days, that pivot will arrive on Friday where price will have to decide to go back up for another look at the price high in the days ahead, or, simply continue failing for a few weeks. So watch that closely. Humorously, if stocks do not roll over, Keystone will be busy removing egg from his face. Black Tuesday did not occur this morning. Things are dicey. Perhaps a flash crash is coming? Perhaps a Black Wednesday will occur in the morning?

The red rising wedge is ominous. The chart looks like a fishing pole dangling its line and bait into the stock market waters at Itchykoo Park. The fishing pole is catching more bag holdin' sucka's each day. The plot thickens. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Friday Morning, 2/26/21, at 6:19 AM EST: The US stock market retreats on Thursday, 2/25/21. The S&P 500 drops 96 points, -2.5%, to 3829, and was down well over 100 points intraday. The Dow loses 560 points. The Nazzy Comp dumps 479 points a bloody -3.5% loss. The Nazzy 100 plummets -3.6% as tech stocks are thrown overboard. The Russell 2000 collapses -3.7%

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