Here is the SPX 2-hour chart again since it was highlighted last week. We have been watching it so we may as well follow it to the top. The top is not in until that MACD goes neggie d. All the other indicators are already negatively diverged and want price to die now. The MACD wants price to come up once more after a candlestick or so of softness and when price makes that matching high, the MACD line should be flat and rolling over with neggie d and the top is in for the 2-hour time frame. The noon candlestick just started and it is lower in price not making a matching high as yet because it is feeling the negativity from the neggie d.
The candlestick, or the next candlestick, should use the remaining fuel, fumes, in the MACD tank to squeeze out one more matching price high, but that should be it and the universal neggie d will create the smack down. The next candlestick is 2 PM EST so watch how that develops when it begins. She's topping-out now. Isn't that exciting? Federal Reserve Chairman Powell opens his pie-hole on Wednesday at the New York Economics Club. They will talk numbers more which may move rates and stocks.
As this windbag message continues, SPX price comes up to 3902. The HOD is a new all-time record high at 3909.92 at 10:46 AM EST on Monday, 2/8/21. The 3905 would be good enough for a matching price high, anywhere in that 3905 to 3910 range. As price prints there, and the MACD is flat or sloping down, the top is in. Happy news can extend the top again, but barring any happy talk, down she goes. If a negative news catalyst occurs stocks should drop harder and faster. Price is up to 3903 now.
The bulls keep singing and buying stocks. The bulls proclaim Good News, Chariots a Comin', Good News. Nobody wants left behind. Bloomberg's Gina Martin Adams says earnings growth is great and stocks will move higher. BNY Mellon's Alicia Levine says the up move is enjoying "broad participation." Levine proclaims, "Broad rallies tend not to be tops." Bulls keep buying tech stocks regardless of whether a pull back occurs or not. MS analyst Mike Wilson says, "Markets are powerful at the moment." Requisite's Bryn Talkington decrees, "We have a good old-fashioned bull market." Credit Suisse says the equity market may continue higher without a pause forecasting the SPX to skate above 4K in quick order. Traders are working themselves into frenzy. The bull orgy continues. Another 20 comments can be listed by analysts proclaiming, "buy, buy, buy!" Are you, with that crew? Irving Fisher pushes open the casket lid and raises his bony finger in the air declaring, "We are at a permanently-high plateau!"
IPO's are ridiculous moonshots. Hey, after you buy the latest piece of IPO garbage, Keystone has some Webvan and pet.com shares in the van he can sell you. The shares are in the van that is parked down by the river that he lives in ever since the dotcom crash! Thank goodness for the motivational speaking gig especially learning from the gifted Matt Foley. TSLA buys billions in bitcoin. That is hilarious. The circus is in full swing. It is fantasyland each day. Some folks receiving the $600 stimulus check are using that money to gamble in the stock market. Oil goes to the moon even though everyone is sitting at home doing nothing. China is likely pumping the black gold into caverns for their commie strategic oil reserve. Over twice as many oil tankers are heading to China these days. The US needs to be getting on a war footing like China.
The bulls enjoyed a trifecta of joy on Friday with a weak jobs report (more easy money will be needed which pumps stocks higher), JNJ happy talk and the Senate paving the way for the fiscal stimulus bill to move forward. Keystone had a tie-dye tee shirt printed up that repeated those words but also says, "but all I got was a lousy 15 SPX points and this lousy tee shirt."
Reddit and Robinhood traders continue buying stocks at the top creating strong inflows. The VOO and IVV ETF's are receiving record inflows. Those poor fools think they are smart buying a general diversified ETF. These charts are the same (VOO, IVV, SPX, SPY, DIA, QQQ, XLK, etc...) as the major indexes; all topping out on the weekly charts. It will be fun especially with everyone saying buy, buy, buy.
Odd things occur when stocks sell off. Of course you will see the standard flight to perceived safety so note and bond prices will jump with yields dropping (see TNX charts). A lot of people are using margin. Are you one of those jackasses? If so, get out of margin now, cash out of the longs and ring the register. When stocks drop, people sell anything to cover the margin call, even your grandmother's ring, if it came down to that (an old Wall Street adage teaching young traders not to be jackasses but sometimes you have to lose a lot of money to learn). Traders may sell off gold, not because they want to, because they have to so they can meet the margin call because they were too overextended on garbage longs. This is why sometimes in a down market gold bugs will be frustrated seeing gold languish instead of rallying. It is because gold holders are selling to raise cash. It will be fun to see if the top occurs in stocks this afternoon.
SPX tip-toes up to 3904 at 12:26 PM EST now rolls over to 3901. The 2-hour above shows the MACD line a tiny hair higher still yet so price likely wants to tag 3905-3912 over the next zero to 90 minutes and that should be the top. She is real close now.
Remember, the daily and weekly charts are also neggie d so the stars are aligned. When she rolls over, she will likely go down for several weeks, if not, it will only be a minor jog higher for a few days or week or so, then the multi-week down move should begin. We may see something historic this week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 12:43 PM EST: SPX 3902. VIX 21.65.
Note Added 12:54 PM EST: SPX 3902. VIX 21.71.
Note Added 12:56 PM EST: SPX 3899. VIX 21.73. The MACD remains a hair higher so you have to give the bulls the benny of the doubt that price will still want to tag 3905-3912 over the next hour.
Note Added 1:23 PM EST: SPX 3900. VIX 21.666.
Note Added 1:42 PM EST: Here you go. SPX 3903. VIX drops to 21.51 so stocks pop. The Fed places its jackboot on the throat of volatility to reward the wealthy class. Price is coming back up for that matching high, maybe, and then we can see if the MACD line is neggie d and call the top. The last two 65-minute segments are 1:50 to 2:55 and 2:55 to 4:00 so watch the starting times at 1:50 and 2:55, give or take 5 minutes, to see if the computers begin implementing large block sell trades. So something may begin between 1:45 PM and 1:55 PM (now). The MACD line remains a hair higher. You are watching the conception of a top in real-time you naughty boys and girls that are peeking through the fogged-up window.
Note Added 1:47 PM EST: SPX 3903. VIX 21.48 at LOD. The Fed is sitting on poor Uncle Vix's throat and head holding him down so stocks can go up. You can see price is stalling, It may not have the gusto to go much higher and may simply give up the ghost. See if any large block sell orders hit the tape.
Note Added 3:15 PM EST: SPX 3905. VIX 21.52. It is comical. The MACD is sloping higher by the tiniest of hairs representing only a few fumes remaining in the gas tank. The bulls do not want to roll over with everyone throwing money at them and cheering and singing songs. It is definitely a close to short into. Perhaps something nutso happens overnight with the stock market sitting in a very vulnerable position. The impeachment trial begins tomorrow not that it matters; it is simply another event representing the bread and circus days.
Note Added 3:33 PM EST: SPX 3906. VIX 21.52. Battery-associated mining and metal stocks are to the moon, such as graphene, graphite, lithium, cobalt and other rare earth mineral stocks. Perhaps the Reddit and Robinhood crowd are in there buying; many of the tickers are penny stocks. A fund is starting an ETF with the battery metals so they are receiving buying interest. Poke around there to see if you like any of that and put them on a potential buy list after the market sells off. Perhaps everything will sell off once the market starts lower. Now is the time to spend time researching stocks and charts, and companies, and fundamentals, but buying nothing. Simply put them on a watch list and wait a month or two to see how the market shakes out. Any stock you like you will likely be able to buy it far cheaper in a few weeks.
Note Added 4:01 PM EST: Wheee! Whoopie! Yee-haw!. Price finally comes up on those MACD fumes printing a new all-time record closing high at 3915.77 and new all-time record closing high at 3915.59. The SPX goes parabolic on the minute chart. Whoopie! Wheeee! The MACD on the 2-hour chart squeezes out more juice during the last half hour orgy. Note the RSI remains neggie d and is ovebot. The SPX needs another jog move, down-up, for the MACD to go neggie d, that is 2 candlesticks, so 0 to 4 hours for the top, which is tomorrow morning. It feels a lot like October 2007. The dotcom bubble was craziness and people displaying outright idiocy, it is not really like that now. But people are very underlying bullish and extremely confident that stocks and the economy will be steady and getting better going forward despite the record highs; this is very similar to the October 2007 top; the feel of the market. Interesting times ahead. Maybe a Black Tuesday tomorrow? What do you think?
Note Added 7:13 PM EST: The SPX prints a new record high but the VIX did not take out last week's low. Both stocks and volatility were higher so one of them was wrong. The Softbank earnings presentation is comical. The graphics show a golden goose laying golden eggs which are all the companies in the Softbank funds. A year ago, they were worried about going bankrupt. It's hilarious. Softbank is the new Enron. If you are bragging about golden eggs and telling everyone you're Jesse Livermore, you ain't. Those Softbank golden eggs may have just top-ticked the stock market with a major top. The bears have been the losers but Even the Losers get lucky some time, as Tom and the boys would sing. From the humor department, what happened to rock and roll for the Superbowl halftime show? That Mr Weekend show was unique. Oh, it's The Weekend. What the Hell kind of stage name is that? He looks like a chubby Michael Jackson. He is a great talent but that was the first time I was hoping the weekend was over. It was just what everyone needed after a year of confusion and chaos with the pandemic; 15 minutes of confusion and chaos with dancers bumping into each other with jock straps on their head. What was all that about; that underwear on their head? If you look close you can see a Fruit of the Loom label. Dr Fauci is going to want us all to walk around with that underwear mask on our heads now. The NFL (American football) have the pop groups in the halftime show because they appeal to women and a broader audience. Everything is always about money; never forget it. By pulling women into the football fun, and selling pink hats and all that stuff, the NFL is making billions more. So much for the real bands like Tom and the gang. America is going to have to return to rock and roll if it wants to right the ship; a new 1970's if you will. During that Superbowl halftime show, maybe it was the way the light had hit, but one of the dancing guy's underwear mask had a brown stain on it.
Note Added 7:39 PM EST: S&P -2. 10-year yield 1.17%.
Note Added Tuesday Morning, 2/9/21,at 5:07 AM EST: S&P -4. VIX 21.83. Volatility is higher so futures are lower. 10-year yield 1.15%. The 2-10 spread is at 103.3 bips (yield curve).
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