Wednesday, June 24, 2020

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Rate Model Update 6/23/20; Pandemic in the Sunbelt (US South and West); Arizona, California, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, Carolina’s, Arkansas and New Mexico are US Hot-Spots; Houston Running Out of ICU Beds; South Asia, America’s and Africa Experiencing COVID-19 Hell; US, Bolivia, Argentina, Guatemala, India and Philippines are in Serious Trouble; Deteriorating US-China Relations and Increasing US COVID-19 Cases Creating Market Angst; Coronavirus Article 11




By K E Stone

Communist China’s Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) bioweapon has infected 9.4 million people around the world murdering 480K souls (approaching a half-million). 5 million people have recovered. The Wuhan killer disease has attacked and sickened over 2.4 million Americans (0.7% of the 330 million US population) murdering over 123K United States citizens. 1 million people have recovered. America is only 4% of the world’s population but has 25% of the coronavirus deaths.

USA has the greatest number of total coronavirus cases in the world followed by Brazil, Russia, India, UK and Spain the same exact order as 10 days ago. Peru and Chile move up into the next spots verifying the trouble occurring in South America. Italy, Iran, Germany, Mexico, Turkey and Pakistan round out the top 14 worst nations ranked according to total virus cases. Over the last few days, the US, India, Mexico, Pakistan and to a smaller extent, China, have each seen a sharp uptick in coronavirus cases.

An update for The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) is provided since another 10-day period passes and more data and information are available. This is Article 11 in the coronavirus series that provides real-time information for historians, teachers, students, journalists, economists, market participants, corporate executives, financial managers, doctors, nurses, medical personnel, researchers, public officials and politicians studying the COVID-19 pandemic. This eleventh article is published on Tuesday, 6/23/20.

The countries and US states are listed below from best to worst based on the spread and progression of the virus so the hot spots around the world and in America are easily identified. The coronavirus articles are written in real-time so it is interesting to see the progression of knowledge, thought, hysteria and scientific information during each week of the 2020 worldwide coronavirus pandemic. Sadly, as highlighted in the prior article, there is a disturbing realization that the health organizations are stumbling around in the dark like three blind mice (WHO, CDC and NIH).

COVID-19 is confusing and confounding doctors and scientists and the virus is not going away. The medical folks do not fully understand the virus. President Trump has turned over much of the decision making to the States so he can criticize their response in the future. Coronavirus cases are spiking across the southern and western United States including Florida, Texas, California and Arizona identified in the prior article.

Last Saturday, President Trump attended a campaign rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, which further incited racial injustice protests (the region has a painful past in the way that blacks were mistreated, and outright murdered, many decades ago). The president, and his so-called social internet guru for the reelection campaign, got played by teens, and other young folks in their 20’s and 30’s. Using message boards such as Reddit, the young folks signed up in mass for the Tulsa rally to spoof the president. Trump worked himself into a tizzy bragging that 1 million people signed up for the event. Trump was convinced that the kick-start of the reelection campaign would be a huge success. A second stage was added outside. In reality, only 6K people filled the 19K arena. The crowd looked bigger than that such as 10K or 12K but it really does not matter. The rally was a flop and Trump is not happy when he looks like a chump. It appeared to be a deflating experience for the typically upbeat showman.

The president continues to refuse to wear a mouth diaper and folks at the Oklahoma rally follow his lead. Democrat Representative Jim Clyburn criticizes the president proclaiming that Trump’s antics are “not leadership, it is showmanship.” People were cheering, coughing, screaming and yelling at the event; the hot arena air filled with aerosol droplets of unknown human body fluids. On stage is King Donnie breathing it all in. Hopefully, the president does not become ill with covid; nobody wants that to happen. Trump visits Arizona today which is a hot-spot for the virus. Donnie keeps tempting fate visiting the most infected states; it is William Henry Harrison-esque. President Trump’s staff, that prepared the Tulsa arena including the podium and mics, become sick with COVID-19. Up to eight people handling the Trump event are now stricken with coronavirus including a couple secret service agents.

Americans are not used to being locked down so after a couple months of that all caution is thrown to the wind. Folks are anxious to get back out there and live life again but in their zeal for a return to normalcy have brought on an accelerated wave of coronavirus cases. People are far less diligent at following social distancing rules and with the economy reopening, the virus is spreading quickly again in America. Most medical professionals are calling it a continuation of the first wave of the virus rather than the second wave that is expected in the Fall.

The economy cannot endure another shutdown. There remains 20 million people out of work. Of course most of the upper middle class and elite privileged class have jobs where they use a desk computer and they can easily work from home never missing a paycheck. The huddled masses, however, do not have the same luxury. Further complicating the issue is the asinine stimulus of providing money to laid off workers over and above unemployment compensation. As would be expected, if people are making more money not working than working, or at least the same comparable amount, they choose to sit home and take it easy. Whatever happened to families saving for a rainy day? Many people live paycheck to paycheck which leads to disastrous outcomes. The population has to be taught to save money for unforeseen expenses but good luck with that. Where were all the parents over the last three decades? It must be idiots teaching idiots during this final stage in the long-term Kondratieff-style cycle.

Restaurants, that have to spend a few thousand dollars to reopen, are closing in the states that see a rapid increase in coronavirus cases. A restaurant cannot afford the starts and stops. Bankruptcies across all business lines are increasing. Those are jobs that are gone forever. Apple closes 11 stores that it had reopened creating stock market jitters. The AMC movie chain reverses earlier guidelines and now makes masks mandatory in its theaters. Mortgage delinquencies are the highest in nine years. 8% of the mortgages in the US are late.

The immediate concern is the spike in coronavirus across the US. Trump downplays the increase in cases blaming it on additional testing. Most people are confounded by Trump’s continuing comment that the only reason there is more cases is that there is more testing. Duh. Of course that is the case. Trump proclaims that "if we did not do any testing we would not have any cases." That is hilarious. Donnie is the guy that hears a rattle from the vehicle he is driving and instead of being concerned over a mechanical problem and potential breakdown, he turns up the radio so the rattle disappears; problem solved. The president is receiving heat over a comment he made at the Tulsa rally where 'he wants the medical people to slow the testing down since it will reduce the number of cases'. The Whitehouse staff said he was kidding but now the president says he is not. Simply add this matter to the heap of confusion and chaos with the handling of the coronavirus situation. Trump’s job approval numbers continue slipping. Seniors are worried about the virus and they are a huge voting block especially in Florida. Trump must win Florida if he wants to be reelected.

State governors that scoffed at the virus and did not take it seriously are now paying the price scrambling to enforce social distancing rules that they laughed at a couple months ago. There was a lot of braggadocio talk in Texas a couple months ago about how the virus saga was overblown but now they are choking and coughing on covid. The coming days are critical to see if this increase in cases in the US, call it a resurgence of the first wave, is a short duration spurt or if it brings on a larger and more destructive virus wave.











As mentioned in the prior articles, the Worldometer web site is very useful in tracking the coronavirus (COVID-19) around the world and its link is provided. Charts in the coronavirus series of articles are provided courtesy of Worldometer and annotated by Keystone.

The Keystone Speculator Coronavirus Infection Rate Model (TKSCIRM) forecasts the peak date in active coronavirus cases for any country or region which represents the maximum strain on medical personnel and facilities. TKSCIRM monitors the Worldometer new case data for a country or region and identifies the date of the peak in new cases (New Case Peak Date). Once this occurs, the active case bell curve will peak in 1 to 4 weeks depending on how the virus situation is handled. If the country, region or state is well-prepared, the active cases will peak 11 days after the new cases peak. If the country is not well-prepared, like the US and other nations currently dealing with the pandemic, the active cases will peak 28 days after the peak in new cases. Same for any US state. Add 28 days to the New Cases Peak Date to arrive at the Projected Active Cases Peak Date.

There is bad news in the US daily new cases and active cases charts shown above. As of the last article 10 days ago, America appeared to be forming the peak, the top of the bell curve, on the active cases chart but instead, the big jump in new cases creates more active cases that are also moving higher. The top of the bell curve on the active cases chart represents the maximum strain on medical facilities and healthcare personnel. Obviously, a chart moving higher is bad and states such as Florida, Texas and Arizona are double-checking their bed, ventilator and ICU capabilities. Texas cities are becoming slightly concerned about the number of beds available.

The US new cases chart above shows 36,015 new cases today basically the same number as 5/1/20 at 36,090. The peak remains at 4/24/20 where 39,072 cases occurred in one day. For modeling purposes, the 4/24/20 new case peak date targets the end of May for the peak in the active cases chart but the chart keeps moving higher instead. Using today, 6/23/20, as the peak new case date since the three days listed are in the same ballpark, would target 7/21/20 for the peak in active cases.

The Keystone Model identifies the new case peak date and subsequent higher numbers will create a new peak. Also, if the number of new cases is within 8% of the prior peak, that new date becomes the peak date where 28 days is added to project when the peak in the active cases will occur. This behavior of matching or higher high new case numbers signals that the virus is getting worse in that region such as the US.

The peak new case date for the US is now 6/23/20, and adding 28 days, targets 7/21/20 for the peak in the active cases bell curve. Note the 7-day average shown on the new cases chart above. It is spiking higher which shows an acceleration in the spreading of the virus comparable to the March period (red lines).

The stutter-steps in the active cases chart shows that if the United States would have been more patient, and held off on wildly and quickly restarting the economy where many people did not wear masks or follow social distancing guidelines, even for just a couple more weeks, that could have led to flattening of the curve but now any hope of that is out in July sometime. The curve has now accelerated higher from the stutter-steps.

The active cases bell curves have peaked, flattened and rolled over, or are rolling over, for the following nations that are on their way to better days ahead barring a second wave. The US keeps slipping in and out of this list and is now out due to the new cases in America today, 6/23/20, spiking to the prior highs.

China (Active Case Peak Date 2/17/20) (13 days after New Case Peak Date) (data is suspect)
South Korea (Active Case Peak Date 3/11/20) (8 days)
Switzerland (Active Case Peak Date 3/21/20) (11 days)
Austria (Active Case Peak Date 4/3/20) (8 days)
Australia (Active Case Peak Date 4/4/20) (13 days)
Iran (Active Case Peak Date 4/5/20) (6 days) (data is suspect) (now in a second wave)
Germany (Active Case Peak Date 4/6/20) (10 days)
Taiwan (Active Case Peak Date 4/6/20) (17 days)
Hong Kong (Active Case Peak Date 4/7/20) (9 days)
Hungary (Active Case Peak Date 5/4/20) (24 days)
Israel (Active Case Peak Date 4/16/20) (14 days)
Italy (Active Case Peak Date 4/19/20) (30 days)
Ireland (Active Case Peak Date 4/20/20) (10 days)
Turkey (Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20) (13 days)
Spain (Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20) (29 days)
France (Active Case Peak Date 4/28/20) (26 days)
Japan (Active Case Peak Date 4/28/20) (18 days)
Portugal (Active Case Peak Date 5/11/20) (31 days)
Singapore (Active Case Peak Date 5/12/20) (23 days)
Ecuador (Active Case Peak Date 5/24/20) (30 days) (data is suspect)
Canada (Active Case Peak Date 5/30/20) (28 days)
Russia (Active Case Peak Date 6/15/20) (35 days) (data is suspect)
UK, Belgium, Netherlands and Ecuador data are suspect so they are not analyzed.

Iran (second wave occurring although data is suspect)
3/30/20 New Case Peak Date
4/5/20 Active Case Peak Date (6 days) (peak of first wave)
6/4/20 New Case Peak Date (more new cases than 3/30/20; Iran now in a second wave)
7/2/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (active cases peak 6/21/20 but give it a few more days)

Peru (data is suspect)
5/31/20 New Case Peak Date
6/28/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (active cases peak 6/14/20 but give it a few more days)

Sweden (data is suspect)
6/18/20 New Case Peak Date
7/8/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date (cannot confirm that the peak is in)


Indonesia
6/20/20 New Case Peak Date (cases keep increasing)
7/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Chile (data is problematic since active cases show a peak on 6/2/20)
6/14/20 New Case Peak Date
7/12/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Bangladesh
6/17/20 New Case Peak Date
7/15/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Columbia
6/18/20 New Case Peak Date
7/16/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Brazil (data is suspect)
6/19/20 New Case Peak Date
7/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Mexico
6/19/20 New Case Peak Date
7/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Egypt
6/19/20 New Case Peak Date
7/17/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

South Africa
6/20/20 New Case Peak Date
7/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Pakistan
6/20/20 New Case Peak Date
7/18/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Kenya
6/21/20 New Case Peak Date (cases keep increasing)
7/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Honduras
6/21/20 New Case Peak Date (cases keep increasing)
7/19/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Philippines (data is suspect)
6/23/20 New Case Peak Date
7/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

India
6/23/20 New Case Peak Date (cases keep increasing at 12K per day)
7/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Guatemala
6/23/20 New Case Peak Date
7/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Argentina
6/23/20 New Case Peak Date
7/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

Bolivia
6/23/20 New Case Peak Date
7/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

United States
6/23/20 New Case Peak Date (on same level as 4/24/20 and 5/1/20)
7/21/20 Projected Active Case Peak Date

It is alarming that the US has fallen drastically on the list and is at the bottom of the coronavirus trash heap alongside Philippines, India, Guatemala, Argentina and Bolivia. Everyone sings, “La Cucaracha.” Iran may have made it though the second wave which is remarkable and should be used as a case study if the data is believable.

The trouble areas remain South Asia, Africa and the southern United States, Mexico, Central America and Latin (South) America. Mexico has had an extremely difficult time handling the coronavirus over the last couple months and note how America’s southern border states are seeing big jumps in cases. Perhaps the virus in Mexico has mutated and it may be a more difficult strain to handle? In a sign of things getting back to normal in Europe, Spain is reopening its borders except to Portugal.

Poorer nations are most impacted by COVID-19 currently which will further hurt the global economy. Young people are becoming more infected. Three in five new patients in the United States now average younger than 45 years old. Seasonality does not appear to impact coronavirus. Cases in Australia are rising which would be expected since the southern hemisphere has crossed into wintertime. However, in many warm nations and in the southern US and Mexico, the hotter weather does not slow the virus down. This behavior hints that the second wave expected in the Fall may be at our doorstep faster than anyone realizes.

Sweden is pulling itself out of the virus quagmire. Sentiment is improving so the people must sense that things are getting better. Sweden did not impose the draconian lockdown measures like other countries and has taken heat over the matter. However, much of the population self-isolated anyway and folks followed social distancing guidelines so it is not a great study on imposing herd immunity. Conversely, the US imposed lockdown restrictions on the population that then exited their homes and apartments over the last month with reckless abandon, throwing caution to the wind, so the number of virus cases are increasing in America. Herd immunity may be the only way to eliminate the COVID-19 threat.

About 60%, some doctors and scientists say 70% or 80%, of the population needs to be infected or receive a vaccine to achieve herd immunity and eliminate the wide-scale threat of COVID-19. America is perhaps 20% along so there is a long way to go for herd immunity; now you can see why there is a push for a vaccine which would greatly increase the chances of snuffing out coronavirus but that opens up a whole new Pandora’s box on human rights and liberty. There will be tracers in the vaccines which many will label as the Mark of the Beast. There are numerous vaccine trials on humans currently underway around the world. Americans are wavering from 25% to 75% (a wide range probably depending on the last news they heard) in favor of receiving a vaccine should it be provided. It will be interesting if the US and other nations spend billions of dollars on a vaccine that no one wants to take.

The dexamethasone drug is helping but only for critically-ill patients. The drug slightly reduces the mortality rate. 40% of the virus cases are asymptomatic. They can transfer the virus and do not know they have it. One in 10 coronavirus cases are at nursing homes and account for 25% of the deaths.

China experiences a mini-spike of cases in Beijing but you can never trust the numbers from the communists. All schools are closed in Beijing and citizens must be tested before allowed to leave the city. China cancels flights in and out of Beijing. New cases in China ran to 150 during late last week but the leadership says the virus is contained again. It is easier to contain a virus in a communist state where you dictate to the people what they can and cannot do and if they do not comply, they receive a bullet in their temple. US-China relations remain strained and are deteriorating. President Trump says to not rule out a “complete decoupling” from China.

The list of states based on the highest number of COVID-19 cases to the lowest are as follows; New York, California, New Jersey, Illinois, Texas, Massachusetts, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Maryland, Virginia, Arizona, North Carolina, Louisiana, Ohio and Connecticut. Of the states with useable and available data, the first ones listed below have weathered the covid first wave storm but the other states remain in trouble. Projections on when the active cases (maximum strain on medical facilities) will peak are provided by the Keystone Model.

California leapfrogs Jersey. Texas leapfrogs Massachusetts. Florida leapfrogs Pennsylvania. Georgia leapfrogs Maryland. Arizona leapfrogs five states. North Carolina leapfrogs Louisiana and Connecticut. Thus, the states moving up the list are getting worse namely California, Texas, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.

Louisiana
New Case Peak Date 4/2/20
Active Case Peak Date 4/23/20 (21 days between the peak in new cases and the peak in active cases)

Michigan
New Case Peak Date 4/3/20
Active Case Peak Date 5/1/20 (28 days)

New Jersey
New Case Peak Date 4/23/20
Active Case Peak Date 5/20/20 (27 days)

Massachusetts
New Case Peak Date 4/24/20 (a spike occurs on 6/1/20 but it may be due to data collection)
Active Case Peak Date 5/20/20 (26 days)

Pennsylvania
New Case Peak Date 4/24/20
Active Case Peak Date 5/21/20 (27 days)

Illinois
New Case Peak Date 5/12/20
Active Case Peak Date 5/30/20 (18 days)

Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Illinois have weathered the initial coronavirus wave. These states now have a bit of breathing room to plan ahead for a potential second weave. The US states listed below show the active cases bell curve charts rising, and not flattening, so the strain on the healthcare systems continue. There are likely many flaws in the data collection. Most of the states below will not peak out on the active cases curve until well into July. The strain and stress on medical facilities will continue for the states below.

New York (data is suspect)
New Case Peak Date 4/15/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/13/20 (as of 6/23/20, chart continues higher)


Ohio (data is suspect)
New Case Peak Date 4/20/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/18/20 (as of 6/23/20, chart continues higher)

Washington (state) (data is suspect)
New Case Peak Date 5/1/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 5/29/20 (as of 6/23/20, chart continues higher)

Maryland (data is suspect)
New Case Peak Date 5/19/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/16/20 (as of 6/23/20, chart continues higher)

Virginia (data is suspect)
New Case Peak Date 5/26/20
Projected Active Case Peak Date 6/23/20 (as of 6/23/20, chart continues higher)

The following states are seeing rapid increases in new cases. May the Lord Have Mercy on Their Souls. It was fun and games for a couple-three weeks in the states below as caution and social distancing was cast aside in favor of restarting the economy and partying but now these regions are experiencing a covid hangover.

New Mexico
New Case Peak Date 6/5/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/3/20

Arkansas
New Case Peak Date 6/18/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/16/20

South Carolina
New Case Peak Date 6/20/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/18/20

North Carolina
New Case Peak Date 6/20/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/18/20

Florida (data is suspect) (republican convention is moved to Florida)
New Case Peak Date 6/20/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/18/20

Oklahoma
New Case Peak Date 6/21/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/19/20

Georgia
New Case Peak Date 6/23/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/21/20


Texas
New Case Peak Date 6/23/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/21/20

California
New Case Peak Date 6/23/20 (cases increasing)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/21/20

Arizona
New Case Peak Date 6/23/20 (cases rapidly increasing)
Projected Active Case Peak Date 7/21/20

For any state that has not yet reached its peak in the active case curve, simply identify what day the new cases peak and add 28 days to that date to project when the top of the bell curve will occur on the active cases chart as per the Keystone Model. If subsequent new case numbers exceed the new case peak date’s number, or are within 8% of the new case peak date, that new date becomes the new case peak date and 28 days is added to project the active cases peak load.

President Trump held the campaign rally last Saturday in Oklahoma and today he is in Arizona. The republican convention this summer is in Florida. Donnie is hitting all the hot spots. In New York, Governor Cuomo ended the daily news conferences. Cuomo has been receiving a lot of heat for sending sick folks into nursing homes early on with the pandemic. He is blaming the Whitehouse and CDC for poor guidance early in the process. Cuomo performs a “mission accomplished” presser last week but the active cases chart continues rising albeit slightly. Cuomo has nothing to celebrate or move on to; he needs to remain focused on the coronavirus problem. When the active cases curve lingers on higher while new cases drift lower for several weeks, that is indicative or more elderly patients that are taking longer to recover (spending more time in the hospital or care centers).

In Texas, Houston is worried about running out of ICU (Intensive Care Unit; where you are placed on a ventilator) beds. The Houston ICU bed capacity is about 95% filled and increasing. As long as the active cases bell curve chart keeps moving higher, and is not yet flattening for the top of the bell, the medical folks will be under stress. All the troubled states above are in the US south and west. The hot weather is not slowing down covid. The states bordering Mexico are hit hard; one wonders if that strain of virus is more difficult to beat down. Mexico’s problems spread to the southern US states.

Florida is a battleground state for the presidential election only four months away. 75% of Florida’s hospitals are filled with patients. The senior voting block is key and many of the older folks are dropping like flies. Trump’s handling of the virus may bite him in Florida which he has to win to achieve reelection. City mayors across Florida and the United States, that laughed at the suggestion of wearing masks, are now imposing mask-wearing on citizens.

The top of the active cases bell curve may not develop until well into July so the strain on medical personnel, especially in those bottom 10 states, New Mexico, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas, California and Arizona, will continue. New Mexico, Arkansas, the Carolina’s and Georgia have not been in the news as much as the others so the mainstream media may be opining about the rising cases in these states in the days ahead. The Keystone Model is great at identifying the next and continuing hot spots around the world and within the US. Mississippi and Nevada are also showing significant cases but the data is inconclusive to include it above. In America, the rate of infection in young people under 25 years old is increasing.

As the coronavirus mess continues, the protests and riots addressing racial injustice continue. Actually, there are many groups with different agendas. There are anarchists and there are simply some opportunistic looters. Protesters are tearing down statues of political figures claiming the people supported slavery, however, the mob behavior has morphed into destroying any statue. The natives are getting restless. Society is working itself into frenzy.

Americans have lost confidence in the three main medical authorities (WHO, CDC and NIH) and are frustrated at the confusing messaging and starts and stops with the economy. Dr Fauci, at the NIH, testifies before Congress and says he is “concerned over an increase in community spread.” Fauci leads the president’s virus task force but admits he has not talked to Trump for a couple weeks. Fauci proclaims, “The next few weeks are critical.” Dr Redfield, at the CDC, brings a wet blanket to the party saying the coming weeks “will be difficult.”

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/24/20, at 3:02 AM EST: The EU (European Union) is considering banning American travel to the continent due to the sharp increase in COVID-19 cases in the states. It would also be a reciprocal type measure since the US banned flights from Europe. President Trump is panning new tariffs against the EU. Only King Donnie would consider tariffs in the middle of a global pandemic and flailing world economy; it rhymes with the protectionism during the 1930’s Great Depression. A presidential poll released this morning from New York Times/Siena College shows democrat challenger Joe Biden at 50% and republican President Trump at 36%. Biden has a strong 14 percentage-point lead while he is hiding in the basement. The American people may be tiring of the daily Donnie showman and braggadocio schtick. The coronavirus mess is not helping the president. Another poll shows two-thirds of the country believe that Trump is dishonest. As stated many times, the republicans provide Donnie with his daily ego-stroking adoration and tell him he is doing a good job because they want the judges. Trump keeps stacking the court with conservative judges that will shape the US court system for decades to come. Republican leaders laugh at Trumpster behind his back and make fun of his buffoonery and bloviating style in the back rooms on Capitol Hill but praise him in public because they simply want the judges. China wants US meat and food producers to guarantee that shipments are virus-free. Get real. The filthy communists release their bioweapon on the world then the Beijing leadership demands that the food they receive is free of the virus they created. If not, China wants to charge fees and damages. Plain and simple, never trust a filthy communist, they will slit your throat in the middle of the night. Trump, Cook (Apple) and Musk (Tesla) will all receive the shaft from the commies as the weeks and months play out. S&P futures dip -30 points in the early morning hours. Global investors and traders are concerned about the spreading virus in America and concern that the global economy will not recover as fast as hoped.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 6/24/20, at 11:30 AM EST: Just before lunch time, the US stock market is cratering. The US-China strained trade relations, talks of new tariffs against Europe and of course the ongoing, and worsening, global COVID-19 pandemic, are creating a negative vibe on Wall Street. The S&P 500, the US stock market (SPX), is crashing 74 points, -2.4% to 3057. The Dow is off 635 points, -2.5%, to 25520. The computer screens are blood red. Europe is also crashing. Germany’s DAX plummets -3%. France’s CAC -2.7%. Italy’s MIB is puking -3.3%. The mainstream and business media is commenting on the sharp spike higher in the 7-day average of new cases in the United States as highlighted in the chart above. New York, New Jersey and Connecticut impose quarantine restrictions against visitors from other states. The news further sinks the stock market. The SPX is down 98 points, -3.1%, to 3033.

Note Added Wednesday Afternoon, 6/24/20, at 1:01 PM EST: The stock market selloff continues although equities are off the lows. Bloomberg cites a large increase in coronavirus cases as spooking the markets. The 7-day averages of new cases in Arizona, South Carolina, Texas, Florida and Oklahoma print record increases. The SPX is down 68 points, -2.2%, to 3063. The University of Washington estimates that 180K US deaths will occur from COVID-19 by 10/1/20. Reference the prior Article 10, linked above, for the US death chart. Extrapolating the worst case the deaths are in that 180K to 190K area. However, the lower line on that chart is patterned after the other countries that already weathered the covid storm. The deaths rise more flatly as time goes on so the Keystone Model would put the deaths at a lower number say 160K three months from now. The Worldometer data shows about 124K US deaths currently while the Johns-Hopkins data is at 122K deaths currently. The news from Houston, Texas, becomes more dire. Houston is at their ICU bed capacity. Texas halts the reopening of its economy. Texas doctors band together and say there are plenty of beds available; they are obviously trying to calm the situation. Texas Governor Abbott proclaims, "There is a massive outbreak of COVID-19 across the state of Texas." President Trump appears detached or in denial saying the worst days of the virus are behind us and blames the testing for identifying more cases. Trump keeps dropping in the polls against democrat challenger Biden.

Note Added Saturday, 6/27/20: The news goes from bad to worse. Florida and Texas are back pedaling from opening the economy. Florida, Texas, California, Arizona, Georgia, Tennessee, Utah and Idaho are reporting record spikes in virus cases. The rural areas are getting hit now. Yesterday, US new cases hit 47,341 the highest number ever blowing away the chart above. Vice President Pence holds a press conference at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) the first briefing in two months. Prince Pence and King Trump keep doing victory laps claiming mission accomplished. Pence proclaims, "We are in a much stronger place." It sounds delusional. Pence will not tell everyone to use a face mask since Donnie refuses to don a mouth diaper. President Trump (not attending the news conference) says there are less deaths and deaths are "way, way down." Of course deaths are increasing but the president is referring to the daily rate of change. For example, the US total cumulative deaths due to COVID-19, as of yesterday are 127,640. The day before 126,977. The day before that 126,324. The day before that 125,505. The day before that 124,634. Thus, as of yesterday's presser, the deaths the three prior days are 871, 819 and 653. This is the number of Americans croaking each day due to the virus; from 600 to 900 souls. On the Republican Tribe side, Trump and Pence say the deaths are going down; they are referencing that daily rate of change so technically that is correct. On the Democrat Tribe side, they say deaths are increasing which is correct since cumulatively, deaths will always increase until the virus ends and the final number is tallied. Do you see how all the filthy politicians play their political half-truth games in the world of crony capitalism? You are best served by not joining either tribe. Now perform the subtraction for yesterday's deaths. Yes, the day to day rate is 663 deaths yesterday versus 653 deaths on Thursday. The death rate is now increasing as well. Pence is lucky he held the conference yesterday because today he is a liar saying the deaths are decreasing; the rate of US deaths are now on the upside again. Pence also declares that the curve has been flattened. This statement contains two errors. First, he is referencing the new cases bar chart which did flatten out but now it has spiked higher than ever; there is no flattening occurring. Second, and more important, he is referencing the "flattening of the curve" to the wrong chart. Keystone keeps mentioning this fact over and over but America in general is too stupid to comprehend easy charts, math and science. Fifth graders can be taught to understand this information but adults cannot since they are blinded by politics. For the umpteenth time, the flattening of the curve references the active cases bell curve. The active cases chart is important since it represents the strain and stress on healthcare professionals and equipment. This is the bell curve you want to see flatten and then roll over lower to form the right side of the bell pattern. Flattening the curve has nothing to do with the new cases bar chart except as the Keystone Model highlights above, the active cases bell curve should peak out and flatten about 28 days after the peak in new cases occurs. Since 6/26/20 is a new peak in new cases, add 28 days, and the maximum strain on US medical personnel will likely not occur until 7/24/20 (extending the chart above). God Bless all you folks. Trump and Pence are botching up the COVID-19 pandemic, it is a mess, but they are probably doing about as well as any republocrat or demopublican joker can do. Do not trust any of the media. Do not join either corrupt tribe. Learn, study and teach yourself. You don't want to be an American Idiot.

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