Monday, September 17, 2018

FB Facebook Monthly Chart

Since August is in the rearview mirror and Autumn begins Saturday, it is a good time to take  look at the FAANG (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) monthly stock charts. Facebook has rolled over placing highs in February and July. Apple continues enjoying upside momo. Amazon is the strongest of the FAANG stocks and will be last to place its long-term top. Netflix wobbles at it hangs around near record highs. Alphabet (Google) is the weakest besides Facebook.

FB has likely placed its long-term top. GOOGL will likely print its multi-month and perhaps multi-year top now through November. NFLX will likely top-out next in October-November. AAPL will place its long-term top in October-December likely before the year ends. Amazon will be last of the FAANG's to be defanged likely placing THE top in the October-January time frame.

For the FB monthly chart above, all of you remember Keystone calling both tops. At the start of the year, the hype was off the charts. CEO Zuckerburg is carried around on CFO Sandberg's thin shoulders as the adoring shareholders applaud and throw roses. Facebook could do no wrong. This is also when television pundits began telling the huddled masses to buy Facebook stock for their kids. The carnie barkers opine that a modest investment in FB stock now will lead to vast wealth and riches beyond belief in the near years ahead. Aunt Harriet, caught up in the hype, invested her entire life savings into FB at 220, trusting all the positive news on tv. Now she eats cat food worried about the future. That was the top.

Facebook now hires thousands of employees to police the site at the same time receiving beatings from Congress waving rubber hoses at the social internet giant. FB collapsed off both negative divergence tops (red arrows, red lines). It is interesting that when price topped out in January/February, the universal negative divergence spanked it lower but there was no reason for price to come back up. Once all indicator are neggie d, there is no more fuel in the tank; there is no further energy to print another high in price. But FB did. It shows you the power of momentum. Many money managers do not believe FB will ever go down and still expect new record highs in the future. When FB hits 110 in the future dropping 50% off the 220 top, there will be still be analysts touting the stock since they consider Facebook the Second Coming.

The ADX line has always been in a strong trend since FB began trading. However, the strong trend diminishes over time as new highs were printing more negative divergence. The indicators remain weak and bleak wanting more new lows in price after any relief rally may occur in this monthly time frame.

FB has tagged the middle band after the upper standard deviation band was hit. The lower band at 137, and rising, remains on the table. The potential blue H&S pattern may play out but it will need  right shoulder as the year ends. FB will likely chop sideways with a downward bias for the months to come.

One potential path is for price to come down to the 140-160 area to kiss the lower band and test the nedkline area of the potential H&S. From there, FB can take a dead-cat bounce to the 180-190 area for the right shoulder of the H&S and then roll over from there targeting 110-115 in November-February. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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