Monday, September 17, 2018

AAPL Apple Monthly and Weekly Charts; Negative Divergence Developing

Since August is in the rearview mirror and Autumn begins Saturday, it is a good time to take  look at the FAANG (FB, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL) monthly stock charts. Facebook has rolled over placing highs in February and July. Apple continues enjoying upside momo. Amazon is the strongest of the FAANG stocks and will be last to place its long-term top. Netflix wobbles at it hangs around near record highs. Alphabet (Google) is the weakest besides Facebook.

FB has likely placed its long-term top. GOOGL will likely print its multi-month and perhaps multi-year top now through November. NFLX will likely top-out next in October-November. AAPL will place its long-term top in October-December likely before the year ends. Amazon will be last of the FAANG's to be defanged likely placing THE top in the October-January time frame.

For the AAPL monthly chart above, the status quo continues. The MACD line continues ramping higher providing more juice for price. Thus, after  pullback due to the negative divergence with the other indicators, Apple will come back up again for a matching or higher high. At that time, say October-November, if the MACD line rolls over, THE top is in for mighty Apple. This may sound like a broken record, but you have to wait for all indicators to be neggie d to call the long-term top.

The upper band is violated so the middle band at 167, and rising, is on the table. The ADX still shows a strong trend at 41 but interestingly, the strong trend peaks move lower over time (purple bars). 

The expectation in the monthly time frame is weakness for a month but then a rally again back to the current highs, then, if the MACD goes neggie d, THE top is in on the multi-month and likely multi-year time frame.

On the AAPL weekly chart, the indicators are in negative divergence after price prints a matching high over the last two-three weeks. RSI and stochastics are overbot. The MACD line is long and strong wanting another higher high in the weekly time frame after a pullback. The purple upward sloping channel was in play until the huge breakout.

A couple months ago, Keystone posted the weekly chart looking for a potential short play. The purple lines were set-up for the bears the only thing that could scuttle the works was the earnings release only a couple days away. Booiiiinnng. Ba-boom. Apple rocket-launched higher on earnings after the earnings reports with the other FAANG's were not particularly inspiring. Apple was the hidden star out of nowhere and price took off to the moon. Then the hype began about printing a $1 trillion market cap, which occurred at that 206-ish price.

Then television commentators such as CNBC's Jim Cramer are screaming, "buy, buy, buy!" Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, says he continues buying Apple stock even at the record highs. AAPL goes parabolic up through the blue channel goosed by joyous rhetoric. The new iPhone X models were unveiled last Wednesday. Money managers and pundits worship at Apple's, and Warren Buffett's, altars. It was quite a joyous run for Apple.

Marrying the weekly and monthly charts, Apple should relax lower for a few days or week or so, but then rally again due to the strong MACD coming back up for a matching high, say a couple weeks out, say early October, then roll over as the MACD goes neggie d. Apple will likely then trend a few weeks lower to tag that middle standard deviation band at 198-210, then likely come back up again since the monthly MACD line is long and strong. Apple will then likely print its multi-year top say, late October-December. If you have enjoyed huge multi-year returns from Apple, keep scaling out as time moves along since THE top is approaching soon. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.