Keystone's Morning Wake-Up 10/25/13; Durable Goods; Consumer Sentiment; UPS

Stocks stagger sideways in the Thursday session since UTIL stays above 498, SOX above 488.95 and VIX under 14.79, and, on the bear side, JJC under 40.19. Thus, status quo. The same parameters dictate market direction today; bears need lower utes, socks and vol while bulls need higher copper. Copper is lower in early trading today. Late-day yesterday, the bulls were pumping copper to create the market upside into the closing bell but are yet unable to attain JJC 40.19. Reference this morning's copper chart for further study. Watch UTIL closely this afternoon since for all of next week price must stay above 506.22, otherwise a ceiling is placed on the market upside. At 4 PM today, UTIL will tell a lot about the markets. If UTIL drops today and ends sub 500, this signals trouble ahead for stocks. If UTIL finishes at or near 506 today, then next week will likely see new all-time highs in the SPX. The bulls must maintain UTIL above the 503-506 level for the whole next month, otherwise, this will create a drag on equity markets. Keybot the Quant is short but if JJC moves above 40.19, and the SPX moves above 1754, and both remain above, Keybot will likely flip back to the long side.

For the SPX today starting at 1752, the bulls only need 2 points, to touch the 1754 handle, and an upside acceleration will occur to test the all-time high at 1759.33. The bears need to push under 1746 to accelerate the downside. A move through 1747-1751 is sideways action. S&P futures are flat at this writing about 2 hours before the opening bell. Durable Goods Orders are 8:30 AM. Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point. Ditto Wholesale Trade at 10 AM but it is unclear if this release and/or Durable Goods will occur due to the government shutdown. Notable earnings today are UPS, UPS and UPS. Did someone mention UPS? This global shipping bellwether will set the tone for markets. PG earnings are in line. ETN, NOV, SHW, SPG and WY are also of interest. The 8 MA is above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. Bears got nothing unless they can create a negative 8/34 cross on the 30-minute. Watch UTIL 498, UTIL 506, SOX 488.95, VIX 14.79 and JJC 40.19. There may be lots of drama with copper and utilities today. The SPX price is extended above all moving averages on daily, weekly and monthly charts signaling a need for a reversion to the mean (lower prices).

Note Added 11:20 AM:  Equities pivot lower at 10 AM. JJC is 39.99 under the critical 40.19 bull-bear line in the sand. UTIL is 503 above 498 creating market lift today but 3 points short of the 506+ needed by the closing bell today. SOX is higher above 489. VIX is 13.20 under the 14.79 bull-bear line (which is bullish for markets). Thus, all is status quo with the parameters remaining in their respective bull and bear camps. The SPX touched 1754 so it shot to higher to test the all-time high at 1759.33 falling less than one-point shy thus far today at a HOD at 1758.46. The beat goes on. Copper is key today. If JJC would move above 40.19, and now the SPX will need to move above 1759, and both stay above, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

Note Added on 10/26/13 at 5:00 AM: The bulls could not push copper above JJC 40.19 so the broad indexes stumbled sideways for much of the day. A late-day push higher occurred as utilities were goosed to target the UTIL 506.22 number that Keybot identified. The bulls close the session with UTIL above 506.22 which will help maintain market elevation come Monday, as long as UTIL can maintain the 35 cent advantage at 506.57. Isn't it amazing how Keybot can identify these areas and levels of interest before they occur? This little robot is the David Blaine of Wall Street. The SPX prints a new all-time intraday high at 1759.82 and new all-time closing high at 1759.77. JJC 40.19 and UTIL 506.22 are key market metrics for next week. The 8 MA remains above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead. The copper trading overnight Sunday will likely dictate the broad market direction after Monday's opening bell. If you are bullish the markets, you want to see higher copper since it will move the SPX another ten or so handles higher. Bears want to see weak copper and if the dollar bounces as the charts show (type 'USD' into the search box at the right to bring up the dollar charts for further study), this should weaken copper and commodities moving forward. GTX collapsed last week.  Keybot the Quant remains short through the weekend. Interestingly, UTIL above 506.22 does not really add bullish oomph to markets, it simply supports the elevated equity numbers. If UTIL drops under 506.22 on Monday, this would be gravy for bears creating negativity to start the ball rolling downhill. It is interesting to see new all-time highs print. If there was ever a time for a significant negative global event to occur to catch traders with their pants down, it would be this weekend. Next week's trading may write epic history as markets determine if they are at a multi-year high inflection point a la 2000 and 2007, or not.