Housing Starts and Jobless Claims were weaker than expected, ditto Philly Fed, and WMT earnings disappoint. No worries, bad news is good news, so, like Pavlov's dog, traders keep markets buoyant since more QE will be on the way. The central bankers have created a Frankenstein monster and QE is the market nowadays. Volatility remains key. The VIX pushed up through the 13.20 bull-bear danger line but once again, the bears run out of gas and collapse falling back through 13. The VIX is printing 12.85.
The market bears had it within their grasp again today. Once the VIX moves above 13.20, the bears need to push the SPX under 1647 and Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The SPX LOD is 1653.35 six points away and volatility fell again so all bets are temporarily off for the bears. TRIN is 1.01, dead flat, so markets are dead flat today, unable to decide on a direction. The 10-year yield is 1.87% dropping ever since the poor data this morning, from 1.95% to 1.87%, eight basis points. Lower yields should pressure equities but do not. The dollar/yen is 102.22 remaining flat for a few hours. Crude oil is 94.90. Copper was down this morning and now is up.
Note Added 1:11 PM: VIX 12.86. TRIN 0.96. SPX 1657.75 (smack-dab at the 8 MA described on the 30-minute chart). HOD 1660.51. LOD 1653.35. It is a paint-drying day so far. Volatility will tell the story.
Of course anything is possible, but 1647 seems like a tall order at this point. We saw the VIX above 1320, so that's there. There's just so many bulls right ---and a perceived safety in numbers--- that it's going to take something big to spook them. Sell in May.
ReplyDeleteon 22 May, Bernanke is audited ...curious what he has to say then about the "efficiency" of his mighty QE ... if we annualize the YTD rise we get 26 to 28% for 2013 ... outstanding!
Deleteguess the big banks are full of joy on this... the small guy maybe less joyful about it .
also on 22 May the FED minutes - interesting to read, maybe.
V.
Hilsenrath hits again....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-not-concerned-about-falling-inflation-wsj-2013-05-16?link=MW_home_latest_news
the FED's trumpet wrote an article that FED is not so much concerned about the low CPI figures.
FED's minutes will acknowledge the tappering of QE discussion and 18-19 June FED meeting followed by a press conference will meet an interesting decision.
bulls, be mightly prepared ;)!
V.
V, just to add further fuel to the fire, KS mentioned earlier that the next major Bradley turn date occurs June 22nd - around the same time as the Fed meeting.
DeleteHi Weaver!
DeleteYes, this is true, sometimes the Bradley turns worked but a few times didn't ...
Just wondering.., if a big crash appears now or the next days/weeks, the jun 22 bradley point would signify a turning point to the same rising trend?
Ever thought of that? :)?
V.
Oh My!
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-williams-bond-buy-pace-can-be-cut-somewhat-2013-05-16?link=MW_home_latest_news
another party spoiler !
hey bulls, ignore this guy, everything is just fine!
KEEP SMILING, KEEP BUYING! :D!
V.
don't short here, have pity for your money, it will stop somewhere at 1640-1645 and than it will go to new highs!
ReplyDeleteLMAO!
Deletea late bull? :D?
V.
And here comes the banks and the mutual fund companies...
ReplyDeleteOk boys and gals,
ReplyDeletetoo much voices the last 2 weeks pounding the table about a QE adjusted negatively ....
Let's raise bets: with how much QE will decrease from the 18-19 June FED meeting?
5 bln, 10 bln, 15 or 20 bln?
My bet is - 15bln $/month and end of QE until end of q1/2014.
Cheers,
V.
Fed minutes on May 22nd, whenever Uncle Ben speaks, market bull climbs higher, a possibility that we may get to mid 1700's instead of getting a nice correction which we all hope for.
ReplyDeleteWhile a move to mid 1700s is certainly possible, I am not as optimistic about that now as I would have been a month ago. I'm not saying that I think it's time to sell, but I'd be cautious with new longs. This definitely a market where you need to keep a close watch on your stops.
Deletethere was here 2 or 3 days ago an underwater guy with shorts on FTSE and I've told him I don't trade and know FTSE.
ReplyDeletei've found for him something-hope he'll read this message.
http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/elliott-wave-analysis-of-ftse.html
I'm not saying it's correct 100% (i don't even know), but it's a point of view.
Cheers,
V.
A late-day swoon occurs but VIX could not hold 13.20 and the SPX needed to fall two or three more points. The 8 MA is ready to stab down through the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart giving the bears the keys to the bus moving forward, however, a strong upward thrust at Friday's open would ruin the bears day, and, at this writing Friday morning the S&P futures are up six. The Fed heads mentioning tapering QE yesterday causing the swoon but traders do not believe the QE will ever end. The Fed has created a monster.
ReplyDelete''The Fed heads mentioning tapering QE yesterday causing the swoon but traders do not believe the QE will ever end. The Fed has created a monster.''
Deletethe surprise-factor will be huge, soon, dear KS!
;)
V.