The bulls push higher to start the day. Dollar/yen is 101.04 more in tune with a flat SPX rather than up 10 but the day is young. VIX is 14.63 backing down from 15-ish which creates bull fuel. Overall, however, the VIX remains well above the bull-bear line at 13.15 creating market negativity. JJC is 40.97 far from its bull-bear line at 41.55 continuing to create market negativity. UTIL jumps higher to 493, now starting to leak lower, but well above the 480.65 bull-bear line creating market positivity. The SPX punches up through the 1656-1657 level so an upward acceleration of a few handles would be expected. Interestingly, the HOD is 1659.27 so that is only a couple handles of joy and the SPX is leaking lower now with a 1655 handle. The 10-year yield is stuck at 2.12%. TRIN is 0.86. The housing data disappointed. JOY disappoints as well and lowers guidance moving forward citing weaker commodities.
Keystone took profits on SLV and PAAS exiting these longs. They both remain attractive for further upside moving forward. Will look to reenter. Also bot SSG, the speculative 2x inverse semiconductor ETF, opening a new long position which is short semi's. Also bot more coffee adding to the ongoing JO long position.
Note Added 10:19 AM: Dollar/yen 100.88. The drop in the dollar/yen, you guessed it, creates weakness in the SPX off the top moving from 1659 to 1655. VIX 14.82. JJC 41.05. UTIL 489.27. TRIN 0.80. SPX 1655.72. The beat goes on.
Note Added 12:18 PM: The 8 MA is about to move up through the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart to signal bullishness ahead so the bears must drive the SPX lower right here right now to reverse today's bullishness. JJC and VIX remain in the bear camp. UTIL remains in the bull camp. Today can be classified as a sideways churn so far. Keystone added more SSG.
Note Added 1:22 PM: The 8 MA moves up through the 34 MA on the 30-minute signaling bullish markets for the hours ahead, however, the 8 MA, 34 MA and price are all at 1656-1657. The bulls need to keep price above 1657 and higher to send the 8 MA higher while the bears need to drive price lower under 1657 so the 8/34 cross can be reversed. Dollar/yen 100.74 so it is surprising to see the SPX remain elevated today. VIX 14.54 so the slight move down today in volatility helps the market buoyancy. Watch the VIX 200-day MA S/R at 14.87. JJC drops under 41. UTIL 487.92. TRIN 0.64 which encourages the bulls today. The 10-year yield is 2.10% showing money moving into bonds but that dough does not appear to be coming from the equities markets. The churn continues.
Note Added 2:56 PM: TRIN at 0.61 says the bulls rule all day long. VIX is at the LOD at 14.29 so the SPX is at the HOD at 1661.91. Resistance above is 1666 then 1669.
Note Added 3:17 PM: There is a foot held on the neck of volatility keeping it down with another new LOD at 14.27. Two days in a row of uber low TRIN's are interesting. The low TRIN and low VIX help keep the broad indexes elevated and pulls in the dip-buyers. The volume is fumes and vapor today dropping from about 75% of an average day's run rate down to about 65% right now; very light volume. The markets should be very entertaining tomorrow and early next week, perhaps even into today's close. Dollar/yen is 100.70 so the low VIX and TRIN are overriding the negativity caused by the stronger yen, at least for now.
Note Added 3:54 PM: The VIX beach ball could not be held underwater and bounced now printing 14.48. The stronger yen is then allowed to create negativity into the closing bell.
God damn it! :D
ReplyDeleteThe market is stuck below 1660 and no fake breakout until now to reverse to 1590-1620!
I've told you that was a secret! :)))))))))
I guess somebody just spread the word and now the set-up is dead! :)))
Lol!
:D
What should we do now? :D?
Ok bulls , make a break ! Stop fooling around! :)
V.
EIA reported that crude supply highest since 1978. How come oil price back up to green instead of red this morning?
ReplyDeleteIs it because an OPEC meeting in Vienna tomorrow so they spike up oil price even though it supposed to be down?
I thought over supply will lower oil price because we are not allow to export oil from US for now, with China slowing down = less demand in both oil and steel. Can someone here help make some sense for me? Thank you.
The inventory build was simply anticipated ahead of time. WTIC crude dropped from 95 to 92.93 yesterday selling off -2.2% as traders placed their bets. So the data this morning confirms the anticipated build and many shorts go in to cover and take profits since they were short from 95. Price recovers from 92.93 to 93.59, about 60 cents, but still is down 1.50 from the 95 high yesterday. As a trader you have to keep thinking ahead, like in billiards thinking about where the cue ball lands for the next shot, or in chess or checkers thinking about the moves beyond the one you are currently doing.
DeleteThat's exactly correct KS we covered our shorts right after the report was published and started new shorts into the close of the pit session at the higher prices...
DeleteSPX fills the gap at 1660.
ReplyDeleteOil is affected by geopolitics, cartel pricing, speculation and who knows what else.
KS, did Au and Ag jump along with the market or it just positively diverged? Nugt miners up two days already. Does it still look attractive moving forward? Thank you.
ReplyDeleteRemember the COT reports from a few days ago they hint at a recovery in gold and silver. You should be able to identify positive divergence by now from all the examples. Prices print lower lows and you can see the indicators for the most part are positively diverged. The metals and miners remain attractive since they are all set up the same way but they are making their bases now so some patience is likely required. Also of interest is the extreme hatred for gold these days, everyone is slamming it, even Grandma Edna got up from the rocking chair the other day and walked over to the corner of the kitchen to kick a bar of gold that holds open the pantry door. Usually extremes in sentiment point the other way. So scale-ins may be considered here forward on the long side.
DeleteThanks KS. One more thing, I noticed sometimes gold is up and miners are down, any idea? Thanks again!
DeleteDay to day anything can happen like the odd days where VIX would move in same direction as the broad indexes. If you go to stockcharts.com and bring up GDX (gold miners), then click on the Interactive Performance chart link at the bottom of the page, then enter both GDX and GLD in the blank space you can bring up both to look at their behavior. Yahoo Finance you can do a comparison as well. You can see overall that they move in lock-step. As a technician, start experimenting with all the tools, you may find certain techniques you have luck with so stay with them and adopt them into your trading platform and daily trading routine.
DeleteThank you for your advice. Japan Nikkei already down a few sessions but our market still hold up spx 1654. Let see how our consumer sentiment turn out.
DeleteYour Aunt Abigail and Uncle Frank will have been whipsawed by today's actions in the utes, Down over 8 points now from the morning's rise. The utes may test Keybot's line in the sand again tomorrow. (Abigail and Frank will be reduced to hitchhiking to their investment advisor's office. Probably a safer thing to do now than buying dividend stocks.)
ReplyDeleteYep, UTIL 480.65 is key. Interestingly, many algo's have this programmed, like Keybot, so it should create a whoosh lower if it fails.
DeleteV., are long or short of this market? Arnie, any updates on your wave counts? Has int. 4 began yet or minute 5 still playing out per Caldaro?
ReplyDeleteIMO int.iv didn't started yet.. still churning in the final phases of int.iii...after this triangle shows it's final down move (to 1623-1625 or 1590 +/- 2 points) there will be a final run-up to 1690-1720 before int. iv starts ... probably int.iv will start sometime during end of first week of June/2nd week of june. I feel it will be somewhat correlated 'in a special way' with FED meeting :) 18-19 june 2013. The FED officials have signaled too many times the same thing to not prepare something soon, so watch out for surprises!
DeleteYesterday I was 35% longs (from 1645 on spx, not ES) 65% cash, and until the end of european session (11.30 EST) i changed my position to 17% longs and 83% cash. I never work with more than 50% of the capital in the final phases of one multi-months wave. I only work with futures, options and etf, never with certain stocks - working on US market it's easier for me as european.
Caldaro is sustaining his view that we are in the final wave 5 of int.iii but what I'm seeing on charts (60 min and 5 h-spx) is a wave 4 of int. iii that triangulates and yesterday it rejected at 1661.91 (the 61.8 fibo retracement from 1674, the previous peak from the triangle).
This wave 4 of int.iii should finish at 1620-1625 (if A=C) or lower, 1595-1590, if it's a deeper retracement. After that wave 5 of int.iii will carry us to 1687-1715/1720.
If Caldaro is right (his thesis: we are now in wave 5 of int.iii) we should see an up impulse to 1674 and more (especially a highlight on "and more", so minimum 1674).
I don't negate his view, but I only look at the charts and I simply see a sideways triangle. And my eyes don't lie me. I don't see an impulsive wave...
I will unload my longs as soon as I can before the final down 'C' wave catches me and I will prepare for the final wave 5 of int.iii on Monday/Tuesday next week.
Cheers,
V.
V, also, next Friday is US job report, may be bad enough to take us to 1620s or even 1586s like you mentioned above. GL!
Deleteno A, it's switched the perspective!
Deleteif it's bad enough the US job report, that guarrantees longer and more QE!
if it's great, then the market will have a mighty problem, might fall hard!
V.
p.s.
:( I'm underwater with my longs... didn't had the time to exit this morning in the european session! Damn it! Hope we won't get too low in the market today! Goddamnit! :((
I have my longs stop at 1630. So, if that triangle is not valid, I'm out.
DeleteV.
Any risk of the euro /yen (now dollar /yen ) trade not "co-operating" was taken care of by the staged , "Fukushima" event that forced Japan to kill its currency.
ReplyDeleteJimstonefreeelance.com
Correction: Jimstonefreelance.com
ReplyDeleteCheck this out...
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/05/31/jim-rogers-gold-needs-to-get-scary-and-bernanke-needs-to-quit/
yes A, gold is in a bear market but no gold lover seems to understand ... the next strong support is in the 1000-1050 area.
DeleteI know it's awful this support, but it's the only support that might hold for some months/quarters this down movement.
I wouldn't dare to be long gold now! J.Rogers is right!
V.
Jimmy Rogers is a commodity guru. He is looking over the short and intermediate term for his negativity in gold. In the long run, once the inflation and hyperinflation is in full gear in 2018, or 2020 and beyond, gold will be at 2K, 3K, maybe 5K. Everything is always about time frames so the calls have to be referenced to time.
DeleteOn the gold weekly chart you can see the descending triangle from late 2011 to 2013 that broke down from the base line at 1550-ish. With a 1900 top, that is 350 difference so downside target is 1200, similar to V's targets above say 1000-1200, this would be on a weekly basis, call it the intermediate type term, weeks and months ahead. However, in the shorter term, the COT reports are favorable to gold and silver, and sentiment is highly negative, as Jimmy is professing now, and a back kiss of the descending triangle base line has not yet occurred at 1550. Thus, it is not unreasonable to see a recovery move ahead for days and weeks say up 1500-1550, then collapse for the weeks and months ahead to the lower target at 1200-ish, then another wave up should begin from there to start the big move towards inflation for the years ahead. But gold can definitely remain lackluster on the weeekly and monthly basis especially if Keystone's disinflationary and deflationary scenario's continue along for at least a couple more years.