Tuesday, December 18, 2012

UTIL Weekly Chart

The 15-week lookback is important for the utilities. Count 15 weeks backwards and if the current weekly close is above that number, the utes are in a weeekly uptrend, if the current print is under that number from 15 weeks prior, the utes are in a weekly downtrend. The utiliites typically lead the markets lower, and have for decades.  During the spring market selloff, the utes did not move down, the chart shows how they moved up, this was highlighted at the time and that it forecast that the broad indexes needed to come back up again, which they did to print the new highs.  When the utiltities rolled over in late July, that is a very bad signal for the markets. The utes remain in a weekly downtrend if price remains under the blue circle.

Of equal and sometimes more importance is the 50-week MA. Usually when price falls thru here, the markets tumble far lower, and the drop down thru occurred during the market selloff in October-November. With the 15-week lookback in a weekly downtrend and UTIL under the 50-week MA, those are two very bearish markets signals.  So watch the 50-week MA at 466 closely. If the bulls push UTIL up thru 466, then the SPX will go up thru the 1460 resistance and probably print new highs for the year.  The market bears must pull out all the stops and prevent 466 with all their might. The indicators are mixed but price is so close a test of the 466 appears on tap, perhaps tomorrow. It is an important tool to watch the remainder of this week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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4 comments:

  1. ArnieDecember 19, 2012 at 12:01 AM

    i'll be watching with QE-3D glasses and pop corn! personally i am getting more and more bullish LT (months), and think that all the money the FED is printing and pumping into the markets (their talks about creating jobs is only smoke and mirrors to lull the american people even more to sleep than they already are.... can we say their in a coma...) will run it to new all time highs. of course we won't go their in a straight line, but if the bears can't get the spx to close below 1400 the have nothing, and so far for each day that passes, 1400 gets further and further away...

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  2. Keystone SpeculatorDecember 19, 2012 at 6:45 AM

    VIX 15.85 and UTIL 466 very important. The bears are fine if the UTIL does not move above 466. The complacency shown by the CPC is important and dictates that short exposure is needed, looks like the fiscal cliff resolution, good or bad, has to be told this week, by Friday, so lots of excitement ahead over the next three days.

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  3. ArnieDecember 19, 2012 at 1:49 PM

    yes, yes, yes and I agree on all accounts. Friday is triple witching as well, which is often (Very) bullish. Right!?

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  4. Keystone SpeculatorDecember 19, 2012 at 1:57 PM

    It probably tends to be bullish but the more important days are Monday which is bullish and the move from Tuesday to Wednesday which is bullish. The Friday action is more with the larger volumes that come in at the open and close. For OpEx Friday, watch the general direction especially moving into the close, typically, on Monday, the markets will move opposite of that Friday direction.

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